Effects of Forest Fires on Flood Frequency Curves in a Mediterranean Catchment/Effets d'incendies de forêt sur les courbes de fréquence de crue dans un bassin versant Méditerranéen

Abstract

The effect of land-use change on the flood frequency curve (FFC) in a natural catchment is analysed. To achieve this, a simple methodology for the derivation of FFCs in land-use change scenarios is proposed. The adopted methodology, using a stochastic model in Monte Carlo simulation of FFCs, was found to provide a useful framework for detecting changes in flood magnitudes in both pre- and post-fire conditions. In particular, the importance of the antecedent soil moisture condition in the determination of the flood frequency distribution was analysed. The analysis of FFCs for pre- and post-fire conditions shows an increase in the average value of Curve Number and a decrease in the catchment time lag. The derivation of FFCs shows a clear increase in flood quantiles. For the post-fire conditions, the FFC exhibits higher quantiles of the peak discharges showing a reduction in frequency of occurrence. This variation is more significant for low-return period quantiles than for high-return period quantiles. The results of the catchment studies reported here support the hypothesis that the hydrological response of the watershed changes as a result of fire, especially during the first years following a fire event.     

A reservoir flood forecasting and control system for China / Un système chinois de prévision et de contrôle de crue en barrage

Abstract

Abstract Reservoirs play a vital role in flood prevention and disaster relief in China. The objectives of the project described in this study were to establish a reservoir flood forecasting and control system and to design and develop corresponding application software. This paper introduces the current reservoir flood control and operation practice with this system in China. Using modern integration technologies, an application software for this Reservoir Flood Forecasting and Control System (RFFCS) has been developed and updated since 1995. The structure of the system and its main functions, telemetric data acquisition and processing, the hydrological database, flood forecasting, and reservoir operation components are described in detail. The working environment, key technologies and standardization design are emphasized. Having been successfully applied to 212 reservoirs in China, the software has proved to be reliable and user-friendly. In its latest version, the software supports reservoir flood forecasting and flood dispatch decisions. The future research direction and the extension of the software function are also discussed.     

Scholte waves on fluid-solid interfaces by means of an integral formulation

The present work shows the propagation of Scholte interface waves at the boundary of a fluid in contact with an elastic solid, for a broad range of solid materials. It has been demonstrated that by an analysis of diffracted waves in a fluid it is possible to infer the mechanical properties of the elastic solid medium, specifically, its propagation velocities. For this purpose, the diffracted wave field of pressures and displacements, due to an initial wave of pressure in the fluid, are expressed using boundary integral representations, which satisfy the equation of motion. The source in the fluid is represented by a Hankel’s function of second kind and zero order. The solution to this wave propagation problem is obtained by means of the Indirect Boundary Element Method, which is equivalent to the well-known Somigliana representation theorem. The validation of the results is carried out by using the Discrete Wave Number Method and the Spectral Element Method. Firstly, we show spectra of pressures that illustrate the behavior of the fluid for each solid material considered, then, we apply the Fast Fourier Transform to show results in time domain. Snapshots to exemplify the emergence of Scholte’s waves are also included.     

Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)^-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)^-1, respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C (100 year)^-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)^-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)^-1 for the winter season.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Study of Seismic Clusters at Bahía de Banderas Region,Mexico

The coast in the state of Jalisco and south of Nayarit is located within a region of high seismic potential, increasing population, and tourism development. This motivated Civil Defense authorities of Jalisco and the Universidad de Guadalajara to launch in the year 2000 the assessment of the seismic risk of the region. This work focuses in the seismicity study of the area of Bahía de Banderas and northern coast of Jalisco, which is actually a seismic gap. We perform an analysis of available seismograms to characterize active crustal structures, their relationship to surface morphology, and possible extent of these structures into the bay shallow parts. The data consist of waveforms recorded during 2003 when the seismograph network spanned the region. Our method is based on the identification of seismic clusters or families using cross-correlation of waveforms, earthquake relocation and modeling of fault planes. From an initial data set of 404 located earthquakes, 96 earthquakes with M_L < 3.6 are related to 17 potentially active continental structures. We present fault plane model for 11 structures. A subgroup of 7 structures is aligned parallel to the Middle America Trench, as a possible consequence of oblique subduction. The foci of the earthquakes were grouped into clusters corresponding to fault dimensions of hundred of meters, may be considered as asperities or barriers in tectonic structures with lengths between 10 and 30 km. These structures could generate shallow earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.0 and represent an additional seismic threat to the region.     

Characterization of ground motions using recurrence plots

The current analysis of earthquakes is typically based on linear mathematical models that may fail to describe and forecast particular behaviors, because in many cases the data complexity may induce a highly non linear behavior. In this paper the implementation of an alternative method for seismic time series analysis is presented. The RPs (Recurrence Plots) enables recognition and treatment of measured accelerations. An RP obtained from seismic data allows a more efficient interpretation of the ground motions and this explanation contributes to characterize materials and responses. The nonlinear attributes from RPs analysis can be used as filters to reveal patterns or be combined to predict a seismic property. Automated seismic data characterization, based on nonlinear seismic attributes, could rewrite the rules of earthquake phenomena interpretation. The objective of this work is to establish a new methodology for practical application of nonlinear dynamics in seismic pattern/attributes recognition, an evolving and challenging engineering field.     

Impact des rejets urbains et industriels sur la qualité des eaux de la plaine de la Meboudja (Algérie)

Un site aquifère contaminé, situé en bordure de l’oued Meboudja (Annaba, Algérie), a été caractérisé en mettant en place une surveillance de la qualité des eaux de surface et souterraines affectées par les nombreux rejets industriels et urbains sur une période de 11 ans (1999?2009). Les déchets industriels sont déposés directement sur le sol et les effluents sont déversés dans l’oued Meboudja sans aucun traitement préalable. Les eaux souterraines présentent une conductivité électrique élevée (de 1000 à 6000 μS/cm), de fortes teneurs en chlorure et en sodium avec respectivement un maximum de 1400 et 730 mg/L. Partant des résultats de l’analyse en composantes principales effectuée sur 33 puits en juillet 2009, les trois principaux processus responsables de l’évolution chimique observée au niveau de l’aquifère ont été identifiés: (a) l’apport salifère du lac Fetzara et le lessivage des formations métamorphiques carbonatées (responsables de l’augmentation de la minéralisation) ; (b) l’alimentation de la nappe par les eaux de l’oued Meboudja, recevant de nombreux polluants industriels (responsable des fortes teneurs en fer et en manganèse) ; et (c) l’utilisation des produits chimiques dans l’agriculture (responsable de l’augmentation des teneurs en nitrates). Les fortes minéralisations sont enregistrées notamment dans les puits situés à proximité des rejets industriels. En outre, de fortes concentrations métalliques en fer et en manganèse sont observées dans les eaux de l’oued. L’évolution de ces deux éléments dans les eaux de la nappe au cours d’un cycle hydrologique montre que l’augmentation des teneurs est liée notamment à une réalimentation de la nappe par l’oued et à une mauvaise oxygénation de la nappe. L’existence de niveaux argileux peut en effet jouer le rôle d’écran en surface et favoriser les conditions réductrices dans la nappe. La Meboudja agit par conséquent comme une source diffuse de contaminants tout au long de son parcours. Les caractéristiques hydrodynamiques de l’aquifère ont été estimées à l’aide de l’interprétation des données des pompages d’essai effectués dans plus d’une dizaine de puits. Des modèles d’écoulement et de transport de polluants ont été élaborés en utilisant le code MODFLOW-MT3D. L’ampleur de la migration des contaminants a été évaluée pendant une période de 11 ans (1999?2009). L’interaction oued-nappe est considérée comme responsable de la migration des contaminants dans la plaine de la Meboudja.

EDITEUR Z. W. Kundzewicz

EDITEUR ASSOCIÉ C. Leduc     

Using 2D inversion of magnetic resonance soundings to locate a water-filled karst conduit

A new methodology for magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) data acquisition and interpretation was developed for locating water-filled karst cavities. This methodology was used to investigate the Ouysse karst system in the Poumeyssens shaft in the Causse de Gramat (France). A new 2D numerical MRS response model was designed for improved accuracy over the previous 1D MRS approach. A special survey performed by cave divers confirmed the accuracy of the MRS results. Field results demonstrated that in favourable conditions (a low EM noise environment and a relatively shallow, large target) the MRS method, used with a coincident transmitter/receiver loop, can be an effective tool for locating a water-filled karst conduit. It was shown numerically that because an a priori orientation of the MRS profile with the karst conduit is used in the inversion scheme (perpendicular for instance), any error in this assumption introduces an additional error in locating the karst. However, the resulting error is within acceptable limits when the deviation is less than 30°. The MRS results were compared with an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey. It was found that in Poumeyssens, ERT is not able to locate the water-filled karst. On the other hand, ERT provides additional information about heterogeneities in the limestone.     

Ca. 13 Ma strike-slip deformation in coastal Sonora from a large-scale,en-echelon,brittle-ductile,dextral shear indicator: implications for the evolution of the California rift

The Rancho Nuevo semi-circular structure is a geomorphological structure defined by drainage patterns in coastal Sonora, about 160 km NW of Hermosillo. The structure is about 15 by 30 km, and it is cored by felsic to intermediate plutons (granodiorite, monzogranite, quartz-porphyry) covered by Miocene volcanic rocks. This work is focused on the deformation of the intrusives which cover most of study area.The plutons are a co-magmatic suite dated between 71 ± 1.1 and 67.9 ± 1.0 Ma (U-Pb zircon, LA-ICPMS). The most voluminous unit is a granodiorite characterized by conspicuous sigmoidal fractures at the scale of high resolution satellite images, along which rhyolite dikes were emplaced about 13.2 Ma. Magnetic fabric (AMS) and paleomagnetic data were collected from 27 sites in the granodiorite. Magnetic fabrics are weak but well developed, and are characterized by steep foliation planes with strikes that follow the sigmoidal fracture pattern and suggest NE-SW to NW-SE flattening after emplacement. The characteristic magnetization is of dual polarity, but it is dominantly reverse consistent with emplacement during chron C31r. The prevalent magnetization is southwest and moderately steep negative (ten sites), a discordant direction rotated clockwise about 41 ° ± 11 with respect to the expected Late Cretaceous reference direction, also indicating gentle southward tilt. There is, however, paleomagnetic evidence suggesting that the structure did not rotate as a rigid body, but it deformed internally instead. These data are interpreted to indicate that the Rancho Nuevo semicircular structure is a large-scale, dextral, brittle-ductile shear indicator. The age of the dikes and the fact that they are covered discordantly by rocks assigned to the tuff of San Felipe indicate that northwest, srike-slip, motion of Baja California peninsula (and thus the Pacific plate relative to North America) was accommodated by faults in coastal Sonora about 13 Ma ago.     

Ground Motion Zoning of Santiago de Cuba: An Approach by SH Waves Modelling

— The expected ground motion in Santiago de Cuba basin from earthquakes which occurred in the Oriente fault zone is studied. Synthetic SH-waves seismograms have been calculated along four profiles in the basin by the hybrid approach (modal summation for the path source-profile and finite differences for the profile) for a maximum frequency of 1 Hz. The response spectra ratio (RSR) has been determined in 49 sites, distributed along all considered profiles with a spacing of 900 m. The corresponding RSR versus frequency curves have been classified using a logical-combinatorial algorithm. The results of the classification, in combination with the uppermost geological setting (geotechnical information and geological geometry of the subsoil) are used for the seismic zoning of the city. Three different main zones are identified, and a small sector characterized by major resonance effects, due to the particular structural conditions. Each zone is characterized in terms of its expected ground motion parameters for the most probable strong earthquake (M_S=7), and for the maximum possible (M_S=8).     

Seasonal inundation patterns in two large savanna floodplains of South America: the Llanos de Moxos (Bolivia) and the Llanos del Orinoco (Venezuela and Colombia)

Inundation patterns in two of the largest savanna floodplains of South America were studied by analysis of the 37‐GHz polarization difference observed by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (Nimbus‐7 satellite). Flooded area was estimated at monthly intervals for January 1979 through to August 1987 using mixing models that account for the major landscape units with distinctive microwave emission characteristics. Results are presented separately for five subregions in each of the two floodplain regions to show the spatial as well as temporal variability in inundation patterns. The total area inundated during the 9 years varied between 2069 and 78 460 km² in the Llanos de Moxos (also spelled as Mojos; median area, 23 383 km²) and 1278 and 105 454 km² in the Llanos del Orinoco (median, 25 374 km²), not including the open‐water area of permanent lakes and river channels. The correlation between flooded area and river stage was used to extend the inundation records over a 30‐year period in the Moxos (1967–97) and a 58‐year period (1927–85) in the Orinoco. Interannual variability in inundation is greater in the Moxos than the Orinoco. Comparison of these data, however, with a previously published analysis of the Pantanal wetland shows that inundation patterns in these two floodplain regions are not as variable across years as they are in the Pantanal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Edge enhancement in multispectral satellite images by means of vector operators

Edge enhancement is an element of analysis to derive the spatial structure of satellite images. Two methods to extract edges from multispectral satellite images are presented. A multispectral image is modeled as a vector field with a number of dimensions equal to the number of bands in the image. In this model, a pixel is defined as a vector formed by a number of elements equal to the number of bands. Two vector operators are applied to such vector field. In our first method, we extend the definition of the gradient. In this extension, the vector difference of the window central pixel with neighboring pixels is obtained. A multispectral image is then generated where each pixel represents the maximum change in spectral response in the image in any direction. This image is named a multispectral gradient. The other method, considers the generalization of the Laplacian by means of an η-dimensional Fourier transform. This image is named a multispectral Laplacian. The vector operators perform a simultaneous extraction of edge-content in the spectral bands of a multispectral image. Our methods are parameter-free. Our methods work for a multispectral image of any number of bands. Two examples are discussed that involve multispectral satellite images at two scales. We compare our results with widely used edge enhancement procedures. The evaluation of results shows better performance of proposed methods when compared to widely used edge operators.     

MÉTHODE D'ÉTUDE DES NAPPES LIBRES DANS LES AQUIFÈRES ANISOTROPES

Abstract

The necessary and sufficient conditions for non-zero phase shift and non-zero attenuation in linear flood routing can be derived from the continuity equation alone and are found to depend on the existence of an imaginary part in the expression for frequency or in the expression for wave number. It is shown that in linear flood routing the phase lag between flow rate and area of flow is directly related to the attenuation per unit wave length. The effects of using various forms of the momentum equation, in addition to the continuity equation, are exemplified by deriving analytical expressions in terms of the frequency, both for attenuation per unit channel length and for phase shift, for the kinematic wave, the general diffusion analogy, and the complete St. Venant equation.     

Fuzzy Optimization Neural Network Approach for Ice Forecast in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/Approche d'Optimisation Floue de Réseau de Neurones pour la Prévision de la Glace Dans le Tronçon de Mongolie Intérieure du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

In ice forecasting, a key problem is the forecast of freeze-up and break-up dates. Ice-water mechanics and the principle of heat-exchange were mainly adopted in previous research. However, the mathematical models in these studies are complex and many parameters are required in relation to upstream and/or downstream gauging stations. Moreover, too many assumptions or simplifications for these parameters and constraints directly lead to low accuracy of the models and limitations as to their practical applications. This paper develops a fuzzy optimization neural network approach for the forecast of freeze-up date and break-up date. The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River, China. Almost every year ice floods occur because of its special geographical location, hydrometeorological conditions and river course characteristics. Therefore, it is of particular importance for ice flood prevention to forecast freeze-up date and break-up date accurately. A case study in this region shows that the proposed methodology may allow obtaining useful results.     

Neural estimation of strong ground motion duration

This paper presents and discusses the use of neural networks to determine strong ground motion duration. Accelerometric data recorded in the Mexican cities of Puebla and Oaxaca are used to develop a neural model that predicts this duration in terms of the magnitude, epicenter distance, focal depth, soil characterization and azimuth. According to the above the neural model considers the effect of the seismogenic zone and the contribution of soil type to the duration of strong ground motion. The final scheme permits a direct estimation of the duration since it requires easy-to-obtain variables and does not have restrictive hypothesis. The results presented in this paper indicate that the soft computing alternative, via the neural model, is a reliable recording-based approach to explore and to quantify the effect of seismic and site conditions on duration estimation. An essential and significant aspect of this new model is that, while being extremely simple, it also provides estimates of strong ground motions duration with remarkable accuracy. Additional but important side benefits arising from the model’s simplicity are the natural separation of source, path, and site effects and the accompanying computational efficiency.     

Etude de la sensibilité d’estimation de la période de retour d’une crue connue seulement par la cote atteinte

Résumé

Cet article propose une méthodologie d’étude de sensibilité pour cerner l’incertitude d’estimation de la période de retour d’une crue maximale annuelle exceptionnelle connue seulement par la cote des plus hautes eaux. Deux autres contraintes ont présidé au choix méthodologique. Tout d’abord, nous ne disposions pas des débits maximaux de crue à la station (hors ceux de la crue annuelle) et nous disposions d’une courte série des débits maximaux annuels. L’étude a ainsi été focalisée sur les débits moyens journaliers dont la série est complète avec une seule lacune qui est celle de la crue qui nous intéresse. La taille de la série des débits moyens journaliers la plus complète étant assez modérée, un modèle statistique à dépassement de seuil POT (Peaks Over Threshold) a été adopté. A partir de la laisse de crue, le débit maximal de la crue non jaugée a été estimé par cinq approches différentes (méthodes d’extrapolation par régression statistique à partir des paramètres hydrauliques de la station, deux modèles de Manning-Strickler en lit homogène, et deux modèles de Manning-Strickler en lit composé) en adoptant des valeurs de rugosité du lit couvrant l’incertitude reflétée d’après les jaugeages existants. Nous avons proposé d’étudier la distribution statistique du rapport α du débit maximum instantané de la crue annuelle à son débit moyen journalier. Par ce biais, l’observation de la laisse de crue a été mise à profit pour compléter la série des débits moyens journaliers moyennant une hypothèse sur la valeur de α. L’article traite l’incertitude sur α pour diverses hypothèses sur la rugosité du lit. Une distribution lognormale a été ajustée pour α et des simulations de Monte Carlo ont été entreprises. Une valeur du débit moyen journalier a alors été attachée à chaque simulation de Monte Carlo de α. Cinquante (50) simulations ont été effectuées dans chaque cas. Le modèle à dépassement de seuil a été appliqué à chaque série de débits moyens journaliers ainsi complétée par simulation. Les quantiles des débits moyens journaliers pour différentes périodes de retour ont été estimés pour chaque série complétée. La dispersion de ces derniers a été représentée par une boite à moustaches et a été quantifiée par l’intervalle interquartile. L’application a porté sur une station hydrométrique contrôlant un bassin de 9000 km² en région semi-aride nord africaine. Les séries d’observation ont été étudiées pour la période 1984–2006 pour laquelle 114 jaugeages étaient disponibles. La médiane du quantile quinquagennal du débit moyen journalier varie de 1410 à 1840 m³/s en fonction du seuil de dépassement retenu et de la valeur du coefficient de rugosité du lit. Les différentes méthodes, en considérant les différents seuils de troncature, conduisent à un intervalle interquartile de la période de retour du débit moyen journalier de cette crue variant entre 30 et 70 ans.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé C. Leduc

Citation Aridhi, H., Bargaoui, Z., et Assia Chebchoub, F., 2014. Etude de la sensibilité d’estimation de la période de retour d’une crue connue seulement par la cote atteinte. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 978–992.     

AVO analysis with partial stacking to detect gas anomalies in the GÜEPAJÉ-3D project

We applied analysis AVO with partial stacking to an onshore gas field in order to detect gas at the top of the Ciénaga de Oro formation (FCO), by using seismic gathers of the Güepajé-3D project. The technique was supported by petrophysical analysis of the Ayombe-1 well.The sensitivity of seismic response to changes in the saturating fluid was evaluated by fluid substitution technique in an interval of the Ayombe-1 well. As a result, a class I AVO anomaly at the top of the FCO was observed, even though the gas and water responses were similar. After applying AVO with partial stack technique at the top of FCO, AVO class I anomalies were observed in the Ayombe-1 and Güepajé-1 gas wells and none in the dry Güepajé-3 well. In spite of being reported with gas, the results in the Güepajé-2 well indicated any to an incipient class I anomaly related to a weak seismic response associated to gas.When the technique was applied to the seismic volume of the Güepajé-3D Project, a map of the direct gas indicator was obtained. The map shows a high correlation with the structural surface at top of FCO. Lithic factors such as compaction, cementation and carbonate overlaying the FCO and variable thickness of partial and full saturated layers, may cause anomalies in zones unlikely to contain gas.     

Inference of fault and fracture systems beneath the Matatlan waste dump basement,a VLF study

We used the VLF technique to infer fault or major fracture zones that might serve as path for contaminant waste fluids in the Matatlan dumpsite, in Guadalajara, western Mexico. To interpret the data we used the Fraser, and Karous-Hjelt filters.Profiles were interpreted with 2D direct modeling based on Karous-Hjelt modified filter (K-H). The Fraser and Karous-Hjelt conjugated filter were applied to the entire data. The results of both techniques show similarities in the directions and positions of anomalous features, which are assumed fault or fracture zones. We observed one fault zone at the centre of the site, with a NEE-SWW strike. Other important inferred structures have NW-SE directions at the western part of the site.The cooperative use of both techniques, based on K-H filter and the Fraser filter give results as an N-S inferred structure in the westernmost part of the zone, as well as NW-SE linear anomalies, mainly in the western half of the site. The N-S structure has the same direction as that of Rio Grande de Santiago Canyon. The NW-SE features coincide with the directions of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. Others NE-SW lineaments are located towards the centre of the area. These facts coincide strongly with the predominance of fracture groups show in the fracture analysis. The inferred structures could serve as conduits for the leachates to migrate towards the Coyula canyon as well as towards the Rio Grande de Santiago Canyon.Statistic analysis of fracture orientations showed N-S (A), N75-80E (B), N60-65W (C), and N25-30W (D) main directions, and N45-55E (E), and 90E (F) secondary directions. Group A coincides with the direction of the Rio Grande de Santiago Canyon, whereas pattern F have the same direction as Coyula Canyon.     

Analyse conjointe des régimes pluviométriques et hydrologiques dans le bassin de la Tafna (Algérie Occidentale)

Résumé

La variabilité du climat, une gestion non optimale de la ressource en eau et l'intensification des activités anthropiques pourraient être les trois facteurs majeurs menaçant les écoulements et l'état de la ressource en eau dans les sous-bassins algériens. C'est le cas du bassin de la Tafna dans la partie occidentale de l'Algérie. Ce bassin est situé dans une région au climat semi-aride. Outre l'influence des précipitations, nous examinerons dans cet article la contribution possible d'autres facteurs (géologiques, topographiques et anthropiques) à la variabilité des écoulements dans le bassin de la Tafna. Pour cela, en plus de l'analyse du régime pluviométrique et des débits, nous avons choisi d'analyser le baseflow index ou BFI et les débits de base. Cinq sous-bassins de la Tafna, où des données journalières de pluie et de débit étaient disponibles sur la période 1976–2006 ont été étudiés. L'analyse, qui a distingué deux sous-régions déterminées par la topographie: les bassins d'altitude et ceux de plaine, montre que, selon leur contexte géologique, les sous-bassins ont des comportements différents en terme d'écoulement. Les zones en altitude présentant un écoulement de base et un BFI plus importants que les bassins de plaine. Ceci peut être relié à la nature lithologique des formations, les bassins d'altitude présentant une composante karstique importante. Les analyses de tendance/rupture sur les précipitations annuelles ne montrent aucune tendance significative sur la période 1976–2006. On note une baisse des débits moyens annuels uniquement sur deux stations en altitude (significatives aux seuils 1 et 10% respectivement). Une tendance à une diminution significative des débits de base est obtenue sur deux bassins d'altitude et un bassin de plaine (au seuil 1 ou 5%). La baisse du BFI est significative au seuil 1% pour seulement une station d'altitude. Ceci serait le signe d'une baisse du stock dans les bassins d'altitude. La modification des écoulements de base sur certains sous-bassins de la Tafna serait donc imputable à des causes, notamment de nature anthropique, ne relevant pas d'une diminution de la pluviométrie.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé M. Lang

Citation Bakreti, A., Braud, I., Leblois, E., et Benali, A. 2013. Analyse conjointe des régimes pluviométriques et hydrologiques dans le bassin de la Tafna (Algérie Occidentale). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–19.