Temporal dynamics and spatial scales: Modeling deforestation in the southern Yucatán peninsular region

Two spatially explicit econometric land use change models are presented, focusing on tropical deforestation caused by agricultural expansion in the southern Yucatán peninsula, Mexico. The two models developed are both based on conceptually similar theoretical models of farmer behavior. However, there are different empirical specifications of this theoretical model according to the scale of the analysis as well as the availability of temporal data on the observation of deforestation. For both models, the unit of observation for the dependent variable of deforestation is the TM pixel from satellite data. However, the socio-economic explanatory variables are derived from different sources. The first econometric model links the satellite data for the entire study region with aggregate census data at the village level. This model is estimated using a discrete choice logit model over a single time period. The second econometric model uses individual household survey data for a small random sample of the region, linked to satellite data for the plots of each household over multiple time periods. This model is estimated using a dynamic hazard model that estimates the risk of a specific pixel converting from forest to agricultural use. Both estimated models are used to predict deforestation and the results of the two modeling approaches are compared.     

Some new aspects on the problem of CO2 and climate under particular consideration of the biosphere

A re-examination of the biosphere, in particular of the tropical rain forests, is necessary since there are some contradictions in our present knowledge about carbon fluxes and carbon storage in various reservoirs. Traditional land-use systems as well as modern exploitation methods in the tropical rain forest areas need not be necessarily of such a magnitude that the global carbon cycle would undergo a major upset or even a climatic catastrophe. This conclusion is primarily based on the high photosynthesis rates of the humid tropics and on the very important role of tropical river systems for carbon transport between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.After careful consideration of all known facts this paper comes to the conclusion that 2 × 10¹⁵ g/yr C are released to the atmosphere due to deforestation and burning in the tropical rain forest belt. The same amount is probably being fixed in the temperate forests and the northern ecosystems. A possible steady balance of all terrestrial ecosystems would, therefore, be the result of a particular historical constellation whereby a destruction of vegetation in the tropics would occur simultaneously to an increase of phytomass and also to a humus and peat accumulation in temperate and northern ecosystems.     

Modeling the mudslide aftermath of the 2007 Southern California Wildfires

An investigation is made of the influence of fire-caused deforestation on precipitation-triggered, shallow landslide susceptibilities in southern California, using a scalable and extensible geo-fluid model (SEGMENT), that accounts for soil mechanics, root distribution, and relevant hydrologic processes. SEGMENT is applicable to variable regional topography, soil thickness profiles, and vegetation coverage. In this study, for southern California following the 2007 wildfires, three experiments were performed with rainfall recurrence periods chosen to be 2, 10, and 25 years. These intervals correspond to 24-h storm rainfall totals of 17, 25.4, and 33 mm. The model generated landslide stability maps that identified three areas of high instability. These unstable regions are located in the San Fernando Valley, the San Gabriel Mountains, and the Santa Monica Mountains. In each case, the vegetation cover had been severely burned during the preceding 2007 wildfires. The model results showed that burning from wildfires is a major destabilizing factor for southern California. Burn sites are more prone to landslides than vegetated slopes because the soil more readily exceeds its critical moisture content. Severe droughts in a future warming climate are expected to increase the likelihood of more frequent and intense wild fires. Higher temperatures combined with decreased total rainfalls facilitate more intense landslides, including devastating mudslides, following heavy precipitation. Finally, the model is designed to assist in developing timely mitigation measures for post-fire, storm-triggered landslides.     

滇黔“燃煤污染型”氟中毒重症区粮食氟和砷污染的主要途径

滇黔地区室内燃煤污染所致慢性氟中毒是我国特有的长期困扰我国的主要环境健康问题之一。为了探讨滇黔"燃煤污染型"氟中毒重症区粮食氟和砷含量及污染的主要途径和改灶降氟炉的使用状况及氟中毒防治效果等,从2005年至2008年11月,连续在云南省和贵州省氟中毒较严重的地区——昭通市的镇雄、威信、大关、彝良、昭阳区以及贵州威宁石门坎、毕节、郝章和非病区昭通巧家、鲁甸县等地,调查了当地500余户改灶降氟炉的使用状况、生活习惯及粮食干燥和保存方式、儿童氟斑牙患病率等,系统采集和分析测定了改灶降氟炉使用区和非使用区烘烤前后粮食的氟和砷等含量。结果发现:无论重病区或非病区,未烘烤粮食的新鲜玉米的氟含量均低于4μg/g,一般为1～2μg/g,砷含量低于0.1μg/g,一般在0.01～0.05μg/g之间;而敞炉快速烘烤(10～15天)的玉米氟含量比烘烤前增加4～200倍,一般在10倍以上,含量在10～20μg/g之间;辣椒氟含量比烘烤前增加了30～100倍,最高达1274.39μg/g;烘烤辣椒的含氟量一般高于玉米的氟含量,均高于20μg/g;砷的含量也10～40倍地增加,增加幅度与氟相当。被调查的500余户烘烤粮食的居民中,无论改灶降氟炉使用户或非使用户,只要是需要烘烤粮食的用户,没有一户是单独使用改灶降氟炉烘烤粮食,全部用2～3个以上的敞炉烘烤粮食,其烘烤后的粮食的氟和砷污染程度相当。结论:滇黔"燃煤污染型"氟中毒区重症区大多数新鲜玉米和辣椒的氟和砷的含量低于或稍高于国家标准;无论烘烤粮食的煤及拌煤黏土中氟和砷含量的高低,烘烤后的玉米和辣椒的氟含量全部超标,砷含量增加十倍以上,敞炉快速烘烤粮食是滇黔氟中毒重症区的粮食氟和砷污染的主要路径和主要成因。改灶降氟炉的推广,不能降低滇黔"燃煤污染型"氟中毒区粮食的氟污染、根治燃煤污染型氟中毒症发生的主要原因,是当地潮湿多雨,气候阴冷,而改灶降氟炉的火力太小,无法在短期内快速烘烤干粮食,所以,无论改灶降氟炉使用区或非使用区,全部用敞炉烘烤粮食。因而在阴冷潮湿的滇黔山区,仅仅推广火力较小的改灶降氟炉,无法隔断烘烤粮食时的氟污染源,对防治滇黔"燃煤污染型"氟中毒是远远不够的。     

Re-evaluating the origins of late Pleistocene fire areas on Santa Rosa Island,California, USA

At the close of the Pleistocene, fire regimes in North America changed significantly in response to climate change, megafaunal extinctions, anthropogenic burning and, possibly, even an extraterrestrial impact. On California's Channel Islands, researchers have long debated the nature of late Pleistocene “fire areas,” discrete red zones in sedimentary deposits, interpreted by some as prehistoric mammoth-roasting pits created by humans. Further research found no evidence that these red zones were cultural in origin, and two hypotheses were advanced to explain their origin: natural fires and groundwater processes. Radiocarbon dating, X-ray diffraction analysis, and identification of charcoal from six red zones on Santa Rosa Island suggest that the studied features date between ~ 27,500 and 11,400 cal yr BP and resulted from burning or heating, not from groundwater processes. Our results show that fire was a component of late Pleistocene Channel Island ecology prior to and after human colonization of the islands, with no clear evidence for increased fire frequency coincident with Paleoindian settlement, extinction of pygmy mammoths, or a proposed Younger Dryas impact event.     

The link between trade openness and deforestation for environmental quality in Nigeria

This paper examines the effect of trade openness on deforestation for environmental quality in Nigeria. Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach to cointegration was used to achieved the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Economic growth, energy consumption and population were used as control variable. The long-run result shows that the coefficients of trade openness and economic growth are significant and inversely related to deforestation. This suggests that trade openness and growth reduce deforestation and improves environmental quality. Conversely, the long-run coefficient of population is significant and positively related to deforestation, meaning that population increases deforestation and environmental degradation. However, the long-run result for energy consumption did not produce statistical significance. Furthermore, all the short-run results were consistent with their long-run result.     

The prehistoric and preindustrial deforestation of Europe

Humans have transformed Europe's landscapes since the establishment of the first agricultural societies in the mid-Holocene. The most important anthropogenic alteration of the natural environment was the clearing of forests to establish cropland and pasture, and the exploitation of forests for fuel wood and construction materials. While the archaeological and paleoecological record documents the time history of anthropogenic deforestation at numerous individual sites, to study the effect that prehistoric and preindustrial deforestation had on continental-scale carbon and water cycles we require spatially explicit maps of changing forest cover through time. Previous attempts to map preindustrial anthropogenic land use and land cover change addressed only the recent past, or relied on simplistic extrapolations of present day land use patterns to past conditions. In this study we created a very high resolution, annually resolved time series of anthropogenic deforestation in Europe over the past three millennia by 1) digitizing and synthesizing a database of population history for Europe and surrounding areas, 2) developing a model to simulate anthropogenic deforestation based on population density that handles technological progress, and 3) applying the database and model to a gridded dataset of land suitability for agriculture and pasture to simulate spatial and temporal trends in anthropogenic deforestation. Our model results provide reasonable estimations of deforestation in Europe when compared to historical accounts. We simulate extensive European deforestation at 1000 BC, implying that past attempts to quantify anthropogenic perturbation of the Holocene carbon cycle may have greatly underestimated early human impact on the climate system.     

Theory and context in analyzing livelihoods,land use,and land cover: Lessons from Petén,Guatemala

Most studies on the causes of deforestation have sought to link the phenomenon to specific economic, political, or demographic factors, usually through statistical or spatial-statistical modeling. However, generalizations about the link between deforestation and specific variables or classes of variables are of questionable validity. Another approach, one that is receiving growing attention, seeks instead to identify particular contexts or situations, as created by an array of interacting factors, which encourage forms of land use or other economic activity that can generate deforestation pressure. Such an approach was used in this study to explore recent trends and dynamics in the Petén region of northern Guatemala. The research found a number of regional and national scale factors that in combination have led to a process of de-agrarianization and dispossession among smallholders, while large scale, commercial activities in agriculture, ranching and plantation forestry increasingly dominate. Rapid land concentration, in conjunction with limited employment generation through emergent activities, is intensifying pressure on remaining areas of forest. A focus on two distinct areas within Petén reveals how broader-scale trends and features can have differing outcomes at the local level, with contrasting socioeconomic and environmental effects. Finally, the paper explores the implications of recent dynamics in Petén for both policy and theory in relation to deforestation, agrarian change, and regional development. Key factors and questions are highlighted that should be considered when exploring influences on regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions.     

Forecasting areas vulnerable to forest conversion using artificial neural network and GIS (case study: northern Ilam forests,Ilam province,Iran)

Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the Zagros region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of deforestation in western Iran. Landsat images dated 1988, 2001, and 2007 are classified in order to generate digital deforestation maps which locate deforestation and forest persistence areas. Meanwhile, in order to examine deforestation factors’ investigation, deforestation maps with physiographic and human spatial variables are entered into the model. Areas vulnerable to forest changes in the Zagros forest region are predicted by a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with a Markov chain model. The results show that about 19,294 ha forest areas are deforested in the last 19 years. The predictive performance of the model appears successful, which is validated using the actual land cover map of the same year from Landsat data. The validated map is found to be 94 % accurate. The validation is also tested using the relative operating characteristic approach which yielded a value of 0.96. The model is then further extended to predict forest cover losses for 2020. The MLPNN approach was found to have a great potential to predict land use/land cover changes because it permits developing complex, nonlinear models.     

Establishing the frequency and magnitude of landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand

 Landslide erosion has an established history in New Zealand. Some broad estimates of economic costs for short-term event damage, long-term landslide damage, and proactive measures are provided and compared on a national and international level. Frequency and magnitude analysis based on historical records of landslide-triggering rainstorms demonstrates that 1) landslides are a nationwide problem, 2) recognition and recording of these events is dependent on public awareness and therefore related to population distribution and extent of urbanized areas, and 3) deforestation increases the frequency of landslide events, but not necessarily the total magnitude of their impact. However, some regions such as Northland and Wellington in the North Island and Greymouth and North Otago in the South Island are more frequently and more strongly affected than others. Landslide occurrence in time and space, within representative study areas in Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, and Wellington, is correlated with the climatic variable daily precipitation. Different regional hydrological thresholds for landslide triggering are established. Received: 15 Ocotober 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Poverty and environmental nexus in rural Pakistan: a multidimensional approach

The study examines the relationship between poverty and forest cover degradation in rural areas of Pakistan. The area selected for the study District Upper Dir is a rural and relatively backward region located in northwestern Pakistan, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. The study area is undergoing severe deforestation and natural disasters in the recent past. The study consists of two stages, in first stage the traditional Geographical information system image was used to analyze the spatial–temporal situation of the surroundings. In the second stage, well-designed questionnaire was used to collect the primary information from 420 randomly selected households of research areas. A multidimensional poverty index has been used to measure the poverty profile of the population. It has been found that 55% households were below the poverty line. Almost, 95% households are using wood for cooking purposes. High dependence on natural resources causes forest cover degradation while burning off too much wood causes CO₂ emission and leads to environmental degradation. A major portion of population is living on steeply sloped areas with certain risks. It is found that frequency of flash flood is 53% and agricultural land (54%) is at high risk and often flows with flash floods. It is concluded that there is strong correlation between multidimensional poverty and forest cover degradation which leads to climate and environmental risks.

     

Pre-Columbian landscape impact and agriculture in the Monumental Mound region of the Llanos de Moxos, lowland Bolivia

We present a multiproxy study of land use by a pre-Columbian earth mounds culture in the Bolivian Amazon. The Monumental Mounds Region (MMR) is an archaeological sub-region characterized by hundreds of pre-Columbian habitation mounds associated with a complex network of canals and causeways, and situated in the forest–savanna mosaic of the Llanos de Moxos. Pollen, phytolith, and charcoal analyses were performed on a sediment core from a large lake (14 km²), Laguna San José (14°56.97′S, 64°29.70′W). We found evidence of high levels of anthropogenic burning from AD 400 to AD 1280, corroborating dated occupation layers in two nearby excavated habitation mounds. The charcoal decline pre-dates the arrival of Europeans by at least 100 yr, and challenges the notion that the mounds culture declined because of European colonization. We show that the surrounding savanna soils were sufficiently fertile to support crops, and the presence of maize throughout the record shows that the area was continuously cultivated despite land-use change at the end of the earth mounds culture. We suggest that burning was largely confined to the savannas, rather than forests, and that pre-Columbian deforestation was localized to the vicinity of individual habitation mounds, whereas the inter-mound areas remained largely forested.     

Effects of forest slash and burn on the distribution of trace elements in floodplain sediments and mountain soils of the Subandean Amazon,Peru

Forest clearing through slash and burn to open up agricultural land is an ongoing process in large parts of the Amazon Basin. This activity severely affects the structure and balance of the natural ecosystem, and also has the potential to cause substantial changes in landscape geochemistry. The latter is the topic of this study, with special attention on translocation of potentially toxic trace elements from deforested areas to downstream aquatic and terrestrial systems. Sampling of floodplain sediments and mountain soils (Inceptisols on redbed lithologies) was carried out in two adjacent Subandean river basins, with deforestation extents of ca. 1/3 and 2/3 of the basin areas. Several toxic and potentially toxic metals (e.g., Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu and Ni) and other major and minor elements showed concentration peaks at certain depths in the alluvial deposits of both basins. These peaks were associated with organic matter, and occurred just below layers of combustion residues originating from burning of in situ biomass. Downward migration of particles originating in the combustion residues is suggested to be the direct mechanisms of the metal enrichments. Further evidence of an in situ origin of the metal peaks in the sediments was provided by the geochemical composition of soils located upstream of the floodplains. Disturbed soils (i.e. soils of pasture, coffee plantations, secondary forest and recently swidden fields) were found to be similar to soils under natural forest. Moreover, trace element concentrations in floodplain deposits were similar in the two drainage basins despite the large difference in exploitation degree. Thus, no evidence was found of large scale (basin-wide) increases in trace-metal leaching or translocation as a result of the extensive deforestation and agricultural land-use that has been practiced in the Amazonian highland jungle over more than 100 a.     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity along the karst hillslopes of southwest China

The understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of soil moisture and hydraulic property is crucial to the study of several hydrological and ecological processes. Karst environments are extremely fragile because of thin soil and small soil water holding capacity. A marked intensification of agricultural land use and deforestation due to increase of population and thus expansion of agricultural areas has made the karst environment even more delicate. In this study, the soil moisture contents (SMC) and hydraulic conductivities (K) along four karst hillslopes were measured in situ by time domain reflectometry and the Guelph Permeameter, respectively, at test plots, each of which has a different vegetative cover, landform, land surface slope, soil property and content of rock fragment. The statistical results from the measurements show that land cover changes strongly affect the distribution of soil moisture and hydraulic properties. Compared with SMC in the bare soil areas, SMC values are 30.5, 20.1 and 10.2% greater in the forest, shrub and grass areas, respectively. Vegetation roots significantly increase permeability of low-layer silt soils. Measured K values were 0.8, 0.6 and 0.01 cm/min for the forest, agriculture and bare soil areas, respectively. When the forest was destroyed by fire or cut to become an agricultural area or bare soils, SMC would be reduced by 13.1 and 32.1%, respectively. If deforestation leads to strong rock desertification, SMC was reduced by 70%. Bedrock fractures significantly reduce the SMC in the overlying layer, but increase K values. SMC values of 30–45% would be reduced to 17–30% for the soil layer embedding rocks with and without fractures, respectively. K values could be increased from 1.0 to 8.5 cm/min. SMC are sensitive to terrain. A slope angle increase of 1° would reduce SMC about 0.82%. These changes resulting from land cover and land use alterations offer useful information to further investigate the response of ecosystem evolution to hydrodynamic processes.     

Seismic response of 3D topographical irregularities under incoming elastic waves from point sources

We study some effects that produce 3D topographical irregularities under incoming elastic waves from point sources using the indirect boundary element method. This technique is based on the representation of elastic waves in terms of single-layer boundary sources. In this way reflected and diffracted waves are constructed at the boundaries from where they are radiated by means of boundary sources. The field emited from the point source is computed with the moment tensor for a shear dislocation and analytical expressions of the elastodynamic 3D Green's functions. In this way we can construct a double couple with variable orientation. We compare the technique with that of Bouchon, who used the discrete wave number method for a shear dislocation in a halfspace with a triangular source function. We subsequently apply our method to simulate the seismic response of a mountain of ellipsoidal geometry. The source function that we have considered is a triangular pulse and we show results corresponding to the velocity registered over the surface of the irregularity and that of the halfspace. This motion is presented by means of snapshots showing the evolution of the wavefields that are present in the problem.     

Linking reforestation policies with land use change in northern Vietnam: Why local factors matter

In many countries worldwide, similar state policies on land management have been implemented as a response to deforestation in mountainous areas. So far, few studies have examined to which extent these policies have actually contributed to reforestation. This is the focus of our analysis, based on a case study in Vietnam. Because land access and land use were traditionally governed by common rules, we examine land use changes from an institutional perspective. We use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, coupled with an historical perspective and the analysis of actors’ perception and dominant narratives on land management and forests. Results show that national policies significantly interfered with local factors, leading to a complex course of decision-making and action. Substantial reforestation in the area was not a response by farmers to policy incentives but rather the unexpected outcome of the disruption of local institutions by these policies. We argue that, because national interventions have relied on false or exaggerated narratives and beliefs, their implementation is in conflict with the local reality in upland areas, leading to unpredictable and locally dependent outcomes. We defend hence the need for local level studies and also recommend considering local institutions for land use change analysis in contexts where land use systems are characterised by a high degree of human interaction.     

A Solution to the Problem of Predicting the Suitability of Silty–clayey Materials for Cement-stabilization

Major geotechnical problems in construction involving silty–clayey soils are due to their low strength, durability and high compressibility of soft soils, and the swell–shrink nature of the overconsolidated swelling soils. Confronted with these problems, a suitable ground improvement technique is needed, for deep excavations in soft clays, for stability, durability and deformation control. Cement-stabilization is one of the alternatives. An increase in strength and durability, reduction in deformability are the main aims of this method. Conventional cement-stabilization methods are used mainly for surface treatment. However, the use of cement has recently been extended to a greater depth in which cement columns were installed to act as a type of soil reinforcement (deep cement–soil mixing and cement jet grouting). In situ engineering properties of these silty–clayey soils are often variable and difficult to predict. For this reason cement-stabilization methods have a basic target to control the aforementioned engineering properties of these clays so that the properties of a silty–clayey soil become more like the properties of a soft rock such as clayey shale or lightly cemented sandstone. So cement-stabilization of these soils is essential to control their engineering properties and to predict their engineering behaviour for construction. In an effort to predict, classify and study the suitability of silty–clayey soils for cement-stabilization both slaking and unconfined compressive strength tests were carried out on clayey–sand mixtures consisted of two types of clays, kaolin and bentonite. Finally diagrams were prepared to study the variation of slaking and strength due to compaction, curing time and cement percentage and also to predict areas of efficient cement-stabilization.     

基于微生物烃检测技术的陕北煤层火烧区绿色探测

煤层中含有各类轻烃,当煤层燃烧后,上覆地层完整性被破坏,给煤层内的烃类散逸提供了良好的通道,这一过程符合轻烃微渗漏原理。因此,引入轻烃微渗漏的微生物烃检测技术对煤层火烧区及其范围进行识别。在陕北侏罗纪煤田郝家梁煤矿进行了2条测线的试验,选择丁烷氧化菌作为检测指标,通过土壤样品采集、微生物培养、菌落计数等微生物检测工作后,结合地质钻孔对微生物值进行标定和异常值分组,并对煤层火烧区轻烃微渗漏的微生物响应特征进行研究。结果表明,在完全火烧区微生物以背景值分布为主,在火烧过渡区微生物以连续高值异常为主,在正常煤层区微生物以中低值为主,从而建立了研究区煤层火烧区微生物响应模型。微生物烃检测技术所解释的煤层火烧区地质成果与磁法解释的火烧边界吻合,且有钻孔验证。微生物烃检测技术的野外实施简单环保,大部分工作在室内完成,更适用于类似陕北生态脆弱区的煤层火烧区探测,有显著的实际意义和经济价值。      

Impact assessment of land cover changes on the runoff changes on the extreme flood events in the Kelantan River basin

In the current years, changing the land cover/land use had serious hydrological impacts affecting the flood events in the Kelantan River basin. The flood events at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia got highly affected in the recent decades due to several factors like urbanisation, rapid changes in the utilisation of land and lack of meteorological (i.e. change in climate) and developmental monitoring and planning. The Kelantan River basin has been highly influenced due to a rapid change in land use during 1984 to 2013, which occurred in the form of transformation of agricultural area and deforestation (logging activities). In order to evaluate the influence of the modifications in land cover on the flood events, two hydrological regional models of rainfall-induced runoff event, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) model and improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional model (Improved TRIGRS), were employed in this study. The responses of land cover changes on the peak flow and runoff volume were investigated using 10 days of hourly rainfall events from 20 December to the end of December 2014 at the study area. The usage of two hydrological models defined that the changes in land use/land cover caused momentous changes in hydrological response towards water flow. The outcomes also revealed that the increase of severe water flow at the study area is a function of urbanisation and deforestation, particularly in the conversion of the forest area to the less canopy coverage, for example, oil palm, mixed agriculture and rubber. The monsoon season floods and runoff escalate in the cleared land or low-density vegetation area, while the normal flow gets the contribution from interflow generated from secondary jungle and forested areas.     

Linking watershed disturbance with nearshore sedimentation and the shell beds of Lake Tanganyika (Mahale Mountains,Tanzania)

Extensive deposits of shell-rich sediments in the nearshore environment of Lake Tanganyika, Africa, form a unique habitat for a diverse group of endemic gastropods, crustaceans, fish and sponges, among other organisms. Anthropogenic alteration of the lake’s hinterland from deforestation, fires, and agriculture threaten this crucial habitat through sediment pollution of the littoral environment. This study examines the sedimentology of these nearshore shell beds along a study area north of the Mahale Mountains (Tanzania) to test whether varying levels of watershed disturbance, determined by analysis of satellite imagery, within three moderately sized watersheds (>?100 km²) results in sedimentological differences offshore. The results show that shell beds adjacent to disturbed watersheds (Lagosa and Rukoma) contain more fine-grained sediment compared to shell beds offshore of the undisturbed watershed (Katumbi). Widespread burning, clearance, and land cultivation, and rains of the wet season are causal factors that result in significant differences in fine-grained sedimentation, larger sediment plumes offshore, and increased shoreline progradation. In areas most affected by sedimentation, sponges are largely absent, and shell coverage, which is a measure of fish-nesting capabilities, is lower. The discovery of a small population of live Neothauma tanganyicense offshore of the Katumbi river suggests that the presence of shell-bed forming gastropods in front of a relatively low disturbance watershed, and their conspicuous absence offshore of the other two watersheds, could be related to recent watershed disturbance and increased sedimentation. The increased fine-grained sedimentation and limited shell production by the reduced modern gastropod populations may signal that the shell-bed ecosystem of Lake Tanganyika is at risk.