Modelling of short runout propagation landslides and debris flows

This paper proposes an extension of methods used to predict the propagation of landslides having a long runout to smaller landslides with much shorter propagation distances. The method is based on: (1) a depth-integrated mathematical model including the coupling between the soil skeleton and the pore fluids, (2) suitable rheological models describing the relation between the stress and the rate of deformation tensors for fluidised soils and (3) a meshless numerical method, Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics, which separates the computational mesh (or set of computational nodes) from the mesh describing the terrain topography, which is of structured type – thus accelerating search operations. The proposed model is validated using two examples for which there are analytical solutions, and then it is applied to two short runout landslides which happened in Hong Kong in 1995, for which there is available information.     

A depth‐integrated,coupled SPH model for flow‐like landslides and related phenomena

In the past decades, flow‐like catastrophic landslides caused many victims and important economic damage around the world. It is therefore important to predict their path, velocity and depth in order to provide adequate mitigation and protection measures. This paper presents a model that incorporates coupling between pore pressures and the solid skeleton inside the avalanching mass. A depth‐integrated, coupled, mathematical model is derived from the velocity–pressure version of the Biot–Zienkiewicz model, which is used in soil dynamics. The equations are complemented with simple rheological equations describing soil behaviour and are discretized using the SPH method. The accuracy of the model is assessed using a series of benchmarks, and then it is applied to back‐analyse the propagation stage of some catastrophic flow‐like slope movements for which field data are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

灾难性地震和降雨滑坡的体积与运动距离研究

为预测和评价灾难性滑坡的致灾机制,基于国内近年来地震和降雨诱发的灾难性滑坡资料,对地震和降雨滑坡的等价摩擦系数H/L、最大水平运动距离L、最大垂直运动距离H与滑坡体积V的关系进行分析。研究灾难性地震和降雨滑坡的远程运动特征以及不同规模滑坡最大水平运动和垂直运动的优势距离。研究结果表明,滑坡的H/L、L、H与V具有幂律关系,其中H/L与V具有负幂律关系,L、H与V具有正幂律关系。同一规模等级的地震和降雨诱发灾难性滑坡的水平和垂直运动距离不同。以H/L＝0.42作为滑坡远程运动的标准,地震诱发的灾难性滑坡与滑坡远程运动的关系较小,而降雨诱发灾难性滑坡与滑坡的远程运动的关系较大。根据滑坡运动距离的累积分布表,以80%滑坡的运动距离所分布的范围,建立了滑坡不同规模等级的优势运动距离区间,同规模等级的地震滑坡和降雨滑坡在水平和垂直运动的优势距离区间上存在差异。灾难性滑坡的运程不仅受滑坡体积的控制还与其诱发机制相关,其研究成果可为由地震和降雨诱发的灾难性滑坡的致灾区域和致灾强度的预测和评价提供参考依据。     

A mixed finite element approach for viscoelastic wave propagation

In this paper, we are interested in the modeling of wave propagation in viscoelastic media. We present a family of models which generalize the Zeners model. We achieve its mathematical analysis: existence and uniqueness of solutions, energy decay and propagation with finite speed. For the numerical resolution, we extend a mixed finite element method proposed in [8]. This method combines mass lumping with a centered explicit scheme for time discretization. For the resulting scheme, we prove a discrete energy decay result and provide a sufficient stability condition. For the numerical simulation in open domains we adapt the perfectly matched layers techniques to viscoelastic waves [23]. Various numerical results are presented.     

Predisposition and cause of the catastrophic landslides of August 2005 in Brienz (Switzerland)

Very intensive rainfall in August 2005 (>300 mm/3 days) triggered moderately deep (2–10 m) landslides of about 50'000 m³ volume each in two mountain torrent catchments above the village of Brienz (Berner Oberland, Switzerland). These landslides – originating in Trachtbach and Glyssibach catchments – transformed into extremely rapid (>5 m/s) debris flows, which caused significant damage in inhabited areas; two persons lost their lives and about twenty-five families became homeless. The Brienz case was the most damaging one among many landslide disasters occurring during those rainy days in the Swiss Alps. In this paper we study in detail the predisposition and causes of the 2005 landslides in the Brienz area, based on field mapping, analysis of high resolution images and digital terrain models, derived from LIDAR and infrared measurements taken before and after the event. The features of these landslides are compared with past and dormant landslides in the mid-slope portion of the mountain chain north of Brienz, which has been the source of many catastrophic mass wasting events during the last centuries. Detailed field mapping shows that highly weathered series of strongly overconsolidated Mesozoic marls (Diphyoides Limestone & Vitznau Marls of Valanginian age) and their residual soils form the primary source for the sliding materials. The rupture surfaces of the moderately deep landslides often run at the transition from saprolite to weathered bedrock, with a dip angle of about 40o in the landslide depletion area. These landslides transform into debris flows, where debris slides into strongly convergent hillslopes or directly into headwater channels.     

A Multidisciplinary Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment of Rock Avalanches

Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods, many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient reliability. Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy     

Numerical modeling of the development of a preferentially leached layer on feldspar surfaces

Compositional depth profiles in the leached layer of feldspar surfaces are usually interpreted by using analytical solutions which introduce oversimplifying assumptions. Here we present a general multicomponent interdiffusion numerical model for simulating cation release from a preferentially leached layer on feldspar surfaces in acid solutions. The numerical model takes into account interdiffusion, dissolution of the solid phase (represented by a moving boundary problem), and adsorption in the leached layer. Effective diffusion coefficients of ions vary with concentration along the leached layer. Governing equations of ions diffusion in the leached layer are solved numerically with a finite element method implemented in a multicomponent reactive transport code, CORE^3D, previously verified against analytical solutions of compositional depth profiles. The numerical model is tested with published X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) data on early development of compositional profiles of labradorite leached in pH 2 HCl solutions. Model parameters are estimated by fitting depth profiles of Ca and Al measured at 12, 26, 48, 72, and 143 h. The best fit is achieved with tracer diffusion coefficients of 4 × 10⁻¹⁸, 8 × 10⁻¹⁷, 3.4 × 10⁻¹⁷, and 7 × 10⁻¹⁸ cm²/s for H, Na, Ca, and Al, respectively, which fall within the range of values reported in the literature. Our estimate of the retreat velocity corresponding to the dissolution rate is 3 × 10⁻¹³ cm/s. Results of sensitivity runs show that computed compositional profiles are sensitive to most model parameters.     

三峡树坪滑坡动力学的有限元模拟

三峡工程是迄今为止最大的水利工程,对库区滑坡灾害的监测和机制研究一直是重要的研究课题。本文利用Terra SAR-X的强度图进行相关计算,求解出2009年5月20日至8月5日期间三峡树坪滑坡的形变场。该形变场特征和树坪滑坡体的地形特征吻合甚好,位移大小、方向和三峡大学对滑坡体的野外观测结果基本吻合。以此高精度位移场为外部约束,结合野外观测资料对滑坡体介质力学性质进行分类并选取边界条件,利用有限元方法对滑坡活动进行动力学计算模拟。计算过程中对滑坡体的滑动面形状、因降雨引起材料参数变化和三峡水库水位等因素分别反演和调整,得出符合其变形和发展过程的滑坡动力学特征。发现软弱带的物性参数决定滑坡体总体滑动量,滑坡体的物性参数决定位移分布的峰值位置。在确定了滑坡动力学特征之后,进一步讨论降雨和库区水位下降对滑坡产生的贡献权重,得出降雨是树坪滑坡的决定因素。     

Soil slip susceptibility assessment using mechanical–hydrological approach and GIS techniques: an application in the Apuan Alps (Italy)

This study aims at contributing to the soil slip susceptibility assessment in a typical basin of the southern Apuan Alps, Italy. On June 1996, this basin (Cardoso Torrent, 13 km² large) was hit by an extremely heavy rainstorm (maximum intensity of about 160 mm/h), which caused many landslides (debris slide–debris flows) and valley bottom flows (hyperconcentrated flows), destruction and deaths. Detailed surveys provided the characterization of the main factors (geological, geomorphologic, hydrological, hydrogeological and geotechnical) which contributed in triggering landslides. In order to evaluate the soil slip susceptibility in this area, a physically based model was applied and a GIS analysis of digital elevation model was performed. This approach couples a mechanical model based on an infinite slope form of the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, and a steady-state hydrological one (a modified version of Shalstab, which considers the cohesion of the debris material potentially involved in landsliding). GIS techniques allowed evaluating the effects of topographic convergence and drainage area on slope failure. In this way, based on the infiltration rate, the triggering of the June 1996 landslides was simulated and the critical rainfall thresholds assessed at about 200–250 mm/24 h.     

Numerical modeling of combined effects of upward and downward propagation of shear bands on stability of slopes with sensitive clay

Modeling of progressive development of zones of large inelastic shear deformation (shear band) that results from strain‐softening behavior of sensitive clays could explain the failure mechanisms of large landslides. Because of toe erosion, a shear band can be initiated and propagated upward (inward) from the river bank. On the other hand, upslope surcharge loading could generate shear bands that might propagate down towards the river bank. In the present study, upward and downward propagation of shear bands and failure of sensitive clay slopes are modeled using the Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian approach in Abaqus finite element (FE) software. It is shown that the formation and propagation of shear bands are significantly influenced by kinematic constraints that change with displacements of the soil masses, and therefore the propagation of an existing shear band might be stopped and new shear bands could be formed. The main advantages of the present FE modeling are: (i) extremely large strains in the shear bands can be successfully simulated without numerical issues, (ii) a priori definition of shearing zones is not required to tackle severe strains; instead, the FE program automatically identifies the critical locations for shear band formation and propagation. Toe erosion could significantly increase the slope failure potential because of upslope surcharge loading. FE analyses with a thick and thin sensitive clay layers show that the global failure could occur at lower surcharge loads in the former as compared to the latter cases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi-Analytic Modelling of Subsidence

This paper presents a forward model for subsidence prediction caused by extraction of hydrocarbons. The model uses combinations of analytic solutions to the visco-elastic equations, which approximate the boundary conditions. There are only a few unknown parameters to be estimated, and, consequently, calculations are very fast. The semi-analytic model is applicable to a uniform and layer-cake stratigraphy, with visco-elastic parameters changing per layer, and an arbitrary depletion pattern. By its capabilities to handle a multi-layered visco-elastic subsurface, the semi-analytic model fills the gap between the analytic single-layered elastic models available to date and the more elaborate numerical, e.g. finite element, models.     

Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait earthquake, Tajikistan, and associated loss of life

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in Central Asia. In July 1949, the M7.4 Khait earthquake triggered many hundreds of landslides in a mountainous region near the southern limit of the Tien Shan Mountains, central Tajikistan. These landslides involved widespread rock-slope failure as well as large numbers of flowslides in loess that mantles the steep slopes of the region. In the Yasman valley hundreds of loess landslides coalesced to form a massive loess flow (est. vol. 245 Mm³) that travelled up to 20 km on a slope of only 2°. In an adjacent valley, the Khait landslide involved transformation of an earthquake-triggered rockslide into a very rapid flow by the entrainment of saturated loess into its movement. It travelled 7.41 km over a vertical distance of 1421 m with an estimated average velocity of ~30 m/s. We estimate its volume as 75 Mm³, an order of magnitude less that previously published estimates. The Khait landslide was simulated using DAN. The number of casualties due to earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region was considerable. Approximately 4000 people were killed in the Yasman valley loess flow as 20 villages (kishlaks) were overwhelmed. In the Khait landslide alone we estimate ca. 800 people lost their lives when the villages of Khait and Khisorak were overrun by rapidly moving debris. Our data indicates that a total of approximately 7200 people were killed by earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region of the Khait earthquake and that, in terms of loss of life, the 1949 Yasman valley loess flow was one of the most destructive landslides in recent history.     

Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow-type involve different soils, and they often cause huge social and economical disasters, posing threat to life and livelihood all over the world. Due to the frequent large extension of the rainfall events, these landslides can be triggered over large areas (up to tens of square kilometres), and their source areas can be analysed with the aid of distributed, physically based models. Despite the high potential, such models show some limitations related to the adopted simplifying assumptions, the quantity and quality of required data, as well as the use of a quantitative interpretation of the results. A relevant example is provided in this paper referring to catastrophic phenomena involving volcaniclastic soils that frequently occur in southern Italy. Particularly, three physically based models (SHALSTAB, TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated) are used for the analysis of the source areas of huge rainfall-induced shallow landslides occurred in May 1998 inside an area of about 60 km². The application is based on an extensive data set of topographical, geomorphological and hydrogeological features of the affected area, as well as on both stratigraphical settings and mechanical properties of the involved soils. The results obtained from the three models are compared by introducing two indexes aimed at quantifying the “success” and the “error” provided by each model in simulating observed source areas. Advantages and limitations of the adopted models are then discussed for their use in forecasting the rainfall-induced source areas of shallow landslides over large areas.     

Dynamic modelling of retrogressive landslides with emphasis on the role of clay sensitivity

This paper presents a detailed numerical study of the retrogressive failure of landslides in sensitive clays. The dynamic modelling of the landslides is carried out using a novel continuum approach, the particle finite element method, complemented with an elastoviscoplastic constitutive model. The multiwedge failure mode in the collapse is captured successfully, and the multiple retrogressive failures that have been widely observed in landslides in sensitive clays are reproduced with the failure mechanism, the kinematics, and the deposition being discussed in detail. Special attention has been paid to the role of the clay sensitivity on each retrogressive failure as well as on the final retrogression distance and the final run‐out distance via parametric studies. Moreover, the effects of the viscosity of sensitive clays on the failure are also investigated for different clay sensitivities.     

Calculation of vibration transmission over bedrock using a waveguide finite element model

A finite element method is developed for the study of elastic wave propagation in layered ground environments. The formulation is based on a spectral finite‐element approach using a mixture of high‐order element shape functions and wave solutions. The numerical method provides solutions to vibration transmission on and within layered elastic waveguides. Examples of its use include the theoretical analysis of transmission of vibrations in the vicinity of the surface of the ground. The mathematical model is two dimensional, and the interior of the ground is modelled as an elastic layer overlying a rigid foundation. An analysis of the natural modes of free vibration in a single layer and two layers is presented and compared with known results. In addition the forced response of the layers, for which the surface is assumed to be subjected to a harmonic point force load is shown. These results also include an illustration of the attenuation of surface vibration due to ‘wave impedance blocks’ in the ‘near field’ of the source up to a frequency of 200 Hz for two soil types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theoretical and numerical analyses of chemical‐dissolution front instability in fluid‐saturated porous rocks

The chemical‐dissolution front propagation problem exists ubiquitously in many scientific and engineering fields. To solve this problem, it is necessary to deal with a coupled system between porosity, pore‐fluid pressure and reactive chemical‐species transport in fluid‐saturated porous media. Because there was confusion between the average linear velocity and the Darcy velocity in the previous study, the governing equations and related solutions of the problem are re‐derived to correct this confusion in this paper. Owing to the morphological instability of a chemical‐dissolution front, a numerical procedure, which is a combination of the finite element and finite difference methods, is also proposed to solve this problem. In order to verify the proposed numerical procedure, a set of analytical solutions has been derived for a benchmark problem under a special condition where the ratio of the equilibrium concentration to the solid molar density of the concerned chemical species is very small. Not only can the derived analytical solutions be used to verify any numerical method before it is used to solve this kind of chemical‐dissolution front propagation problem but they can also be used to understand the fundamental mechanisms behind the morphological instability of a chemical‐dissolution front during its propagation within fluid‐saturated porous media. The related numerical examples have demonstrated the usefulness and applicability of the proposed numerical procedure for dealing with the chemical‐dissolution front instability problem within a fluid‐saturated porous medium. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种流动性滑坡涌浪动力学模型

滑坡涌浪是入水滑坡引起的一种次生灾害,其致灾范围远大于滑坡的运动区域,准确预测其演化过程是防治这类灾害的关键。现有预测模型多将滑体简化为刚体,而实际滑坡多表现出流态运动的特征。为更合理地描述滑体和涌浪的耦合运动,将滑体视为流态物质,在此基础上推导了滑坡与水体耦合运动的控制方程,利用有限差分法对控制方程求解,建立了一种可模拟流动性滑坡涌浪演化过程的动力学模型。使用该模型对三峡库区的龚家方滑坡涌浪的演化过程进行模拟,将模拟所得河道纵截面处的最大浪高值与实测值进行对比,结果表明最大浪高值出现在滑坡的主滑动方向,且最大浪高沿纵截面两侧快速衰减,模拟结果与实测吻合。     

预应力锚索抗滑桩治理滑坡应用研究

预应力锚索抗滑桩与普通抗滑桩相比,其受力状态更加合理。从将预应力锚索抗滑桩作为支程支挡结构的地质与物理模型出发,建立了力学与数学模型,得到该模型的内力分布的解析解,为其结构设计奠定了基础。将双参数法引入到土抗力模数或地基系数的计算并贯穿到整个结构计算中。分别按刚性桩和弹性桩两种物理模式,将锚索视为弹性绞支座,利用抗滑桩和锚索位移变形协调条件,计算出锚索的设计拉力及桩身的内力分布。结合三峡工程库区地质灾害治理的一个工程进行了应用,并将其与采用普通抗滑桩进行了技术与经济对比分析后,体现出这种抗滑结构的优越性。     

A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils

In the last 20 years, several catastrophic precipitation-induced landslides have hit villages, towns and roads in Campania (southern Italy), causing extensive damage and many fatalities. Although such phenomena have occurred since time immemorial, recent urbanisation and infrastructural development have produced a major increase in landslide risk. Due to climatic changes and further unavoidable increases in exposure, in the near future, the risk will become even greater. It is therefore high time to develop reliable criteria for landslide prediction. The paper discusses the main factors which affect the triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, highlighting the key role played by antecedent rainfalls which cannot be precisely accounted for using empirical criteria. We propose a simple 1D numerical approach able to predict the evolution of the key factors governing slope stability as a tool to predict the onset of slope failure, with potential benefits for early warning systems. The approach is calibrated through a well-documented case history.     

多排抗滑桩设计中的推力分担比模拟

山区铁路修建过程中,大型滑坡常采用多排抗滑桩的工程措施进行加固治理。目前常规的计算方法无法准确计算出作用在每排抗滑桩上的推力大小以及分担比。以ANSYS大型数值有限元软件为手段,以六沾线曹家山滑坡为研究对象。通过进行数值计算的方式得到作用在每排抗滑桩上的推力大小,并统计出相应每排桩所承担的滑坡下滑推力比,该方法为抗滑桩的最终结构计算提供更为科学、合理的依据,从而避免了原方法存在的种种局限性,为多排抗滑桩的设计提供了一种行之有效的解决办法。