Seasonal evolution mechanism of the East Asian winter monsoon and its interannual variability

This study investigates the space–time evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and its relationship with other climate subsystems. Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis and the multiple regression method are used to delineate the detailed evolution of various atmospheric and surface variables in connection with the EAWM. The 120 days of winter (November 17–March 16) per year over 62 years (1948–2010) are analyzed using the NCEP daily reanalysis dataset. The first CSEOF mode of 850-hPa temperatures depicts the seasonal evolution of the EAWM. The contrast in heat capacity between the continent and the northwestern Pacific results in a differential heating in the lower troposphere. Its temporal evolution drives the strengthening and weakening of the Siberian High and the Aleutian Low. The anomalous sea level pressure pattern dictates anomalous circulation, in compliance with the geostrophic relationship. Thermal advection, in addition to net surface radiation, partly contributes to temperature variations in winter. Latent and sensible heat fluxes (thermal forcing from the ocean to the atmosphere) increase with decreased thermal advection. Anomalous upper-level circulation is closely linked to the low-level temperature anomaly in terms of the thermal wind equation. The interannual variability of the seasonal cycle of the EAWM is strongly controlled by the relative strength of the Siberian High to the Aleutian Low. A stronger than normal gradient between the two pressure systems amplifies the seasonal cycle of the EAWM. The EAWM seasonal cycle in the mid-latitude region exhibits a weak negative correlation with the Arctic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russia indices.     

Zonally resolved water vapour coupling with tropical tropopause temperature: Seasonal and interannual variability,and influence of the Walker circulation

Climate Dynamics - Global stratospheric water vapour is strongly coupled to the tropical cold-point tropopause temperatures. We quantified the coupling between temperature and water vapour in the...     

Intraseasonal and interannual climate variability

Major advances in our understanding of intraseasonal-interannual climate variability during the past three decades are reviewed. Prospects for prediction on these time-scales are briefly discussed.Paper based on talk presented at the session honoring J. Murray Mitchell at the December 1986 AGU meeting in San Francisco, CA.     

Seasonal and interannual variability of oceanographic conditions in the southwestern part of the Sea of Okhotsk

The seasonal variability of oceanographic conditions in the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk is described based on long-term mean temperature T and salinity S from observations along a standard oceanographic section Cape Aniva-Cape Dokuchaev (May–November). It is shown that the Soya Current is relatively weak in spring, with low temperature and salinity gradients along the section. The Sea of Okhotsk low-salinity water mass is observed in the upper layer. It was formed as a result of melting of a large amount of ice brought here with the East Sakhalin Current from the northwestern part of the Sea of Okhotsk. A cold intermediate layer (CIL) at depths of 50–150 m extends along the entire section. The cold intermediate layer core with a temperature at the edge of the Sakhalin shelf of about ?1.3°C is retained during a period of maximum warming in August; however, in October–November the intensified flow of the East Sakhalin Current (up to 50 cm/s) results in a situation when relatively warm low-salinity waters, connected with the Amur River runoff, dissipate CIL. The results of 12 surveys conducted by the Sakhalin Research Institute for Fisheries and Oceanography in 1998–2004 show significant deviations of T and S [10] in different years from the calculated values. Generally, maximum anomalies (ΔT > 4°C and ΔS > 0.55‰) are observed in the surface layer. Their values and statistical significance decrease with depth. However, the situation is opposite in some cases. The maximum deviation from normal was observed in June 1999, when warm and salt waters were located much further seaward from the Kunashir shelf, which is most likely connected with the Soya Current meandering.     

Seasonal and interannual variations of carbon exchange over a rice-wheat rotation system on the North China Plain

Rice-wheat (R-W) rotation systems are ubiquitous in South and East Asia, and play an important role in modulating the carbon cycle and climate. Long-term, continuous flux measurements help in better understanding the seasonal and interannual variation of the carbon budget over R-W rotation systems. In this study, measurements of CO2 fluxes and meteorological variables over an R-W rotation system on the North China Plain from 2007 to 2010 were analyzed. To analyze the abiotic factors regulating Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), NEE was partitioned into gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration. Nighttime NEE or ecosystem respiration was controlled primarily by soil temperature, while daytime NEE was mainly determined by photosythetically active radiation (PAR). The responses of nighttime NEE to soil temperature and daytime NEE to light were closely associated with crop development and photosynthetic activity, respectively. Moreover, the interannual variation in GPP and NEE mainly depended on precipitation and PAR. Overall, NEE was negative on the annual scale and the rotation system behaved as a carbon sink of 982 g C m-2 per year over the three years. The winter wheat field took up more CO2 than the rice paddy during the longer growing season, while the daily NEE for wheat and rice were -2.35 and -3.96 g C m-2, respectively. After the grain harvest was subtracted from the NEE, the winter wheat field became a moderately strong carbon sink of 251-334 g C m-2 per season, whereas the rice paddy switched to a weak carbon sink of 107-132 per season.     

Seasonal carbon dioxide balance and respiration of a high-arctic fen ecosystem in NE-Greenland

Summary  Turbulent fluxes of CO₂ were continuously measured by eddy correlation for three months in 1997 over a gramineous fen in a high-arctic environment at Zackenberg (74°28′12″N, 20°34′23″W) in NE-Greenland. The measurements started on 1 June, when there was still a 1–2 m cover of dry snow, and ended 26 August at a time that corresponds to late autumn at this high-arctic site. During the 20-day period with snow cover, fluxes of CO₂ to the atmosphere were small, typically 0.005 mg CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ (0.41 g CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹), wheres during the thawed period, the fluxes displayed a clear diurnal variation. During the snow-free period, before the onset of vegetation growth, fluxes of CO₂ to the atmosphere were typically 0.1 mg CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ in the afternoon, and daily sums reached values up to almost 9 g CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹. After 4 July, downward fluxes of CO₂ increased, and on sunny days in the middle of the growing season, the net ecosystem exchange rates attained typical values of about −0.23 mg m⁻² s⁻¹ at midday and max values of daily sums of −12 g CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹. Throughout the measured period the fen ecosystem acted as a net-sink of 130 g CO₂ m⁻². Modelling the ecosystem respiration during the season corresponded well with eddy correlation and chamber measurements. On the basis of the eddy correlation data and the predicted respiration effluxes, an estimate of the annual CO₂ balance the calender year 1997 was calculated to be a net-sink of 20 g CO₂ m⁻² yr⁻¹. Received October 6, 1999 Revised May 2, 2000     

Temperature and snow-melt controls on interannual variability in carbon exchange in the high Arctic

Summary Net Ecosystem CO₂ Exchange (NEE) was studied during the summer season (June–August) at a high Arctic heath ecosystem for 5 years in Zackenberg, NE Greenland. Integrated over the 80 day summer season, the heath is presently a sink ranging from −1.4 g C m⁻² in 1997 to −23.3 g C m⁻² in 2003. The results indicate that photosynthesis might be more variable than ecosystem respiration on the seasonal timescale. The years focused on in this paper differ climatically, which is reflected in the measured fluxes. The environmental conditions during the five years strongly indicated that time of snow-melt and air temperature during the growing season are closely related to the interannual variation in the measured fluxes of CO₂ at the heath. Our estimates suggest that net ecosystem CO₂ uptake is enhanced by 0.16 g C m⁻² per increase in growing degree-days during the period of growth. This study emphasises that increased summer time air temperatures are favourable for this particular ecosystem in terms of carbon accumulation.     

The Interannual Variability and Predictability in a Global Climate Model

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Caribbean hurricanes: interannual variability and prediction

Climatic conditions that affect the interannual variability of Caribbean hurricanes are studied. Composite meteorological and oceanographic reanalysis fields are constructed for active and inactive seasons since 1979, and differences are calculated for spring and summer periods to provide guidance in statistical analysis. Predictors are extracted for areas exhibiting high contrast between active and inactive seasons, and intercomparisons are made. Zonal winds north of Venezuela exhibit westerly anomalies prior to active years, so coastal upwelling and the north Brazil current are diminished. Rainfall increases in the Orinoco River basin, creating a fresh warm plume north of Trinidad. The predictor time series are regressed onto an index of Caribbean hurricanes, and multivariate algorithms are formulated. It is found that atmospheric kinematic and convective predictors explain only ??20% of hurricane variance at 3?C5-month lead time. Subsurface ocean predictors offer higher levels of explained hurricane variance (42%) at 3?C5-month lead time, using 1?C200-m-depth-averaged temperatures in the east Pacific and southern Caribbean. We place the statistical results in a conceptual framework to better understand climatic processes anticipating Caribbean hurricanes.     

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that by the corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 year integrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAP AGCM, i.e., no serious ‘climate drift’ occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM and CGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM is much greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not exist in the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two types: one is the variation of the annual mean, another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type of variability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannual variability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.     

Seasonal and interannual variations of upper tropospheric water vapor band brightness temperature over the global monsoon regions

The upper-troposphere water vapor (UTWV) band brightness temperature (BT) dataset derived from the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) channel 12 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini-stration (NOAA) polar satellites from 1979 to 1995 is used to analyze the seasonal and interannual variations for the global monsoon regions. Results show that (i) there are three major regions where the UTWV band BT varies significantly with season, i.e., South Asia, the western coastal South-North America tropical region and the low-lati-tude African region; (ii) UTWV band BT clearly reveals the water vapor temporal / spatial features as well as the at-mospheric circulation structure over the low-latitude during the monsoon onset; and (iii) there is a remarkable rela-tionship between the interannua] variation of the UTWV band BT over the monsoon regions and the sea surface tem-perature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific.     

Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole

This study investigates the decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. It is found that the long-term IOD index displays a decadal phase variation. Prior to 1920 negative phase dominates but after 1960 positive phase prevails. Under the warming background of the tropical ocean, a larger warming trend in the western Indian Ocean is responsible for the decadal phase variation of the IOD mode. Due to reduced latent heat loss from the local ocean, the western Indian Ocean warming may be caused by the weakened Indian Ocean westerly summer monsoon. The interannual air-sea coupled IOD mode varies on the background of its decadal variability. During the earlier period （1948-1969）, IOD events are characterized by opposing SST anomaly （SSTA） in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, with a single vertical circulation above the equatorial Indian Ocean. But in the later period （1980-2003）, with positive IOD dominating, most IOD events have a zonal gradient perturbation on a uniform positive SSTA. However, there are three exceptionally strong positive IOD events （1982, 1994, and 1997）, with opposite SSTA in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an El Nifio event. Consequently, two anomalous reversed Walker cells are located separately over the Indian Ocean and western-eastern Pacific; the one over the Indian Ocean is much stronger than that during other positive IOD events.     

基于卫星和Argo观测的阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度季节和年际变化

基于美国国家航天局（NASA）发射的水瓶座（Aquarius/SAC-D）卫星和欧洲航天局（ERA）发射的土壤湿度与海洋盐度（SMOS）卫星的观测资料,以及Argo海表盐度资料,重点分析了阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度的季节和年际变化.年平均情况下,Argo、Aquarius和SMOS表现出相似的海表盐度分布形态,均表现了阿拉伯海中北部高达36.5 psu的高盐特征.阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度在2—3月出现最低值,在4月之后快速升高,并在夏季西南季风的成熟阶段达到最高.阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度显著的季节变化与季风风场引起的大量蒸发和平流输送相关.夏季风期间,Ras al Hadd急流将来自阿曼湾的高盐水向东向南输送到阿拉伯海中北部海域,使海表盐度升高并达到最高值;冬季风期间,冬季风环流系统在印度半岛西侧海域形成向北的低盐水输送,造成阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度降低.该低盐水平流在冬季风后期能够影响到阿曼海.阿拉伯海中北部海表盐度年际变化主要与季风驱动的季风环流系统的变化相关,尤其是冬季风期间向北流动的印度西侧沿岸流的强弱与该区域海表盐度年际变化关系密切.     

Observational and modelling studies of Amazonia interannual climate variability

The interannual variability of climate in the Amazon basin is studied using precipitation and river level anomalies observed near the March/April rainy season peak for the period 1980–86, supported by satellite imagery of tropical convection. Evaluation of this data in conjunction with the corresponding circulation and sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns indicates that abundant rainy seasons in Northern Amazonia are characterized by anomalously cold surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific, and negative/positive SST anomalies in the tropical North/South Atlantic, accelerated Northeast trades and a southward displaced Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic sector. Years with deficient rainfall show broadly opposite patterns.General circulation model (GCM) experiments using observed SST in three case studies were aimed at testing the teleconnections between SST and Amazon climate implied by the empirical analysis. The GCM-generated surface fields resemble the corresponding observers fields most closely over the tropical Pacific and, with one exception, over the tropical Atlantic as well. The modeled precipitation features, along the Northwest coast of South America, anomalies of opposite sign to the North and South of the equator, in agreement with observations and results from a different GCM. Similarities in simulations run from different initial conditions, but using the same global SST, indicate broad consistency in response to common boundary forcing.     

Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SST

The variability of the Indian Ocean on interannual and decadal timescales is investigated in observations, coupled model simulation and model experiment. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was specifically analyzed using a data-adaptive method. This study reveals one decadal mode and two interannual modes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the IOD. The decadal mode in the IOD is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the North Pacific SST. The two interannual modes are related to the biennial and canonical components of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consistent with previous studies. This study hypothesizes that the relation between the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific on decadal scale may be through the northerly winds from the western North Pacific. The long simulation of Community Climate System Model version 4 also indicates the presence of IOD modes associated with the decadal PDO and canonical ENSO modes. However, the model fails to simulate the biennial ENSO mode in the Indian Ocean. The relation between the Indian Ocean and North Pacific Ocean is further supported by the regionally de-coupled model experiment.     

Carbon dioxide exchange in a temperate grassland ecosystem

Carbon dioxide exchange was measured, using the eddy correlation technique, over a tallgrass prairie in northeastern Kansas, U.S.A., during a six-month period in 1987. The diurnal patterns of daytime and nocturnal CO₂ fluxes are presented on eight selected days. These days were distributed throughout most of the growing season and covered a wide range of meteorological and soil water conditions. The midday CO₂ flux reached a maximum of 1.3 mg m^-2 (ground area) s^-1 during early July and was near zero during the dry period in late July. The dependence of the daytime carbon dioxide exchange on pertinent controlling variables, particularly photosynthetically active radiation, vapor pressure deficit and soil water content is discussed. The nocturnal CO₂ flux (soil plus plant respiration) averaged -0.4 mg m^-2 (ground area) s^-1 during early July and was about -0.2 mg m^-2 s^-1 during the dry period.Published as Paper No. 9061, Journal Series, Agricultural Research Division, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, U.S.A.Research Associate and Professor, respectively.     

Climatology and Interannual Variability of the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

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Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability

Observations indicate that since the 1970s Equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations in boreal summer tend to modulate El Niño in the following seasons, indicating that the Atlantic Ocean can have importance for predicting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The cause of the change in the recent decades remains unknown. Here we show that in the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), a freshwater forced weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) results in a strengthening of the relation between the Atlantic and the Pacific similar to that observed since the 1970s. During the weakening AMOC phase, SST and precipitation increase in the central Equatorial Atlantic, while the mean state of the Pacific does not change significantly. In the Equatorial Atlantic the SST variability has also increased, with a peak in variability in boreal summer. In addition, the characteristic timescales of ENSO variability is shifted towards higher frequencies. The BCM version used here is flux-adjusted, and hence Atlantic variability is realistic in contrast to in many other models. These results indicate that in the BCM a weakening AMOC can change the mean background state of the Tropical Atlantic surface conditions, enhancing Equatorial Atlantic variability, and resulting in a stronger relationship between the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This in turn alters the variability in the Pacific.