Probabilistic approach to short- and intermediate-term earthquake forecasting: II test application to southern California

A method is proposed for assessing the modifying effects of precursory observations on long-term probabilities of strong earthquakes (M6). Estimated short-and intermediate-term probabilities so estimated rely on the mean precursory time and its uncertainty as a function of the mainshock magnitude and epicentral position. Short-and intermediate-term modification of long-term probabilities within a 120,000 km² circular area covering most of Southern California are estimated for one or more observations of strain, resistivity, and ground water anomalies centered near Palmdale in the central Transverse Ranges. The principal assumptions employed are log normal distribution of globally reported waiting periods and assumed predictive reliability of precursory phenomena. As expected, the significance of short-and intermediate-term modifications scale with the reliability of precursory observations, and are particularly enhanced within window lengths of a precursory characteristic time.     

Attenuation and dispersion ofSH waves due to scattering by randomly distributed cracks

The effect of randomly distributed cracks on the attenuation and dispersion ofSH waves is theoretically studied. If earthquake ruptures are caused by sudden coalescence of preexisting cracks, it will be crucial for earthquake prediction to monitor the temporal variation of the crack distribution. Our aim is to investigate how the property of crack distribution is reflected in the attenuation and dispersion of elastic waves.We introduce the stochastic property, in the mathematical analysis, for the distributions of crack location, crack size and crack orientation. The crack size distribution is assumed to be described by a power law probability density (p(a) a ^– fora _minaa _max according to recent seismological and experimental knowledge, wherea is a half crack length and the range 13 is assumed. The distribution of crack location is assumed to be homogeneous for the sake of mathematical simplicity, and a low crack density is assumed. The stochastic property of each crack is assumed to be independent of that of the other cracks. We assume two models, that is, the aligned crack model and the randomly oriented crack model, for the distribution of crack orientation. All cracks are assumed to be aligned in the former model. The orientation of each crack is assumed to be random in the latter model, and the homogeneous distribution is assumed for the crack orientation. The idea of the mean wave formalism is employed in the analysis, and Foldy's approximation is assumed.We observe the following features common to both the aligned crack model and the randomly oriented crack model. The attenuation coefficientQ ^–1 decays in proportion tok ^–1 in the high frequency range and its growth is proportional tok ² in the low frequency range, wherek is the intrinsic wave number. This asymptotic behavior is parameter-independent, too. The attenuation coefficientQ ^–1 has a broader peak as increases and/ora _min/a _max decreases. The nondimensional peak wave numberk _p a _max at whichQ ^–1 takes the peak value is almost independent ofa _min/a _max for =1 and 2 while it considerably depends ona _min/a _max for =3. The phase velocity is almost independent ofk in the rangeka _max<1 and increases monotonically ask increases in the rangeka _max>1. While the magnitude ofQ ^–1 and the phase velocity considerably depend on the orientation of the crack in the aligned crack model, the above feature does not depend on the crack orientation.The accumulation of seismological measurements suggests thatQ ^–1 ofS waves has a peak at around 0.5 Hz. If this observation is combined with our theoretical results onk _p a _max, the probable range ofa _max of the crack distribution in the earth can be estimated for =1 or 2. If we assume 4 km/sec as theS wave velocity of the matrix medium,a _max is estimated to range from 2 to 5 km. We cannot estimatea _max in a narrow range for =3.     

On the efficiency with which aerosol particles of radius larger than 0.1 μm are collected by simple ice crystal plates

A theoretical model is presented which allows computing the efficiency with which aerosol particles of radius 0.1r10 m are collected by simple ice crystal plates of radius 50a _c 640 m in air of various relative humidities, temperatures and pressures. Particle capture due to thermophoresis, diffusiophoresis and inertial impaction are considered. It is shown that the capture efficiency of an ice crystal in considerably affected by phoretic effects in the range 0.1r1 m. For aerosol particles ofr>1 m the efficiency is strongly controlled by the flow field around the crystal and the density of the aerosol material. Trajectory analysis also predicts that aerosol particles are preferentially captured by the ice crystal rim. Our theoretica results are found to agree satisfactorily with the laboratory studies presently available. Comparison shows that for the same pressure, temperature and relative humidity of the ambient air ice crystal plates are better aerosol particle scavengers than water drops.     

Accuracy of integral migration transformation in dependence on space-time sampling

Summary The accuracy of wave field extrapolation is studied with respect to the discretization of field data and integral extrapolator. Assuming a far-field approximation of the Rayleigh-Sommerfeld solution for a two-dimensional scalar wave equation, the minimum and the maximum transmitted frequency are expressed as functions of the sampling intervals t, x, and the half-width x₀ and angle _a of the migration aperture. The theoretical limitation of the transmitted frequency band is tested on numerical examples.

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aamuam mm manuu auumu m ¶rt;umuauu n u uma manu nama. ¶rt; u uma u -¶rt;a ¶rt; ¶rt; a au, ¶rt; nuuuu ¶rt;a n mu ¶rt; uua u aua n¶rt;aa amm a uu m a -nmam ¶rt;umuauu t u , nuu ₀ u a _a uau anm. mu n¶rt;u amm ¶rt;uanaa mmua a u nua.

     

Distribution of thermal areas on an active lava flow field: Landsat observations of Kilauea,Hawaii, July 1991

A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image acquired on 23 July 1991 recorded widespread activity associated with the Episode 48 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. The scene contains a very large number (>3500) of thermally elevated near infrared (0.8–2.35 m) pixels (each 900 m²), which enable the spatial distribution of volcanic activity to be identified. This activity includes a lava lake within Pu'u 'O'o cone, an active lava tube system (7.9 km in length) with skylights between the Kupaianaha lava shield and several ocean entry points, and extensive active surface flows (total area of 1.3 km²) within a much larger area of cooling flows (total16 km²). The production of an average flux density map from the TM data of the flow field, wherein the average flux density is defined in units of Wm^-2, allows for the chronology of emplacement of active and cooling flows to be determined. The flux density map reveals that there were at least three breakouts (>5000 Wm^-2) feeding active flows, but on the day that the data were collected the TM recorded a waning phase of surface activity in this area, based on the relatively large amount of intermediate power-emitting (cooling) flows compared to high power-emitting (active) flows. The production of a comparable flux density map for future eruptions would aid in the assessment of volcanic hazards if the data were available in near-real time.     

Radioactivity and geochemistry of granulites and some related rocks from the saxonian granulite complex

Summary The distribution of radioactive(Th, U, K), major and selected trace(Rb, Sr, Ba, Y, Zr, V, Cr, Ni) elements of granulites from the Saxonian Granulite Complex was studied. Similarly to the South Bohemian granulites, the Saxonian granulites can be divided according to the contents of their major and trace elements into two main groups, groupA containing mostly acid and subacid granulites (K ₂ O>2.5%, SiO ₂ >68%), and groupB containing mostly intermediate and basic granulites (K ₂ O<2.5%, SiO ₂ <68%). Statistically significant differences between groupsA andB were found for all major oxides and several trace elements(Rb, V, Cr, Ni). The Saxonian granulites follow the same calc-alkaline trend as the South Bohemian, granulitesA being placed mostly in the rhyolite field and granulitesB mostly in the dacite, andesite and basalt fields of this trend. The investigated granulites are characterized by a considerable scatter ofTh andU contents accompanied by very variableTh/U ratios; theTh andU concentrations of granulitesA are substantially lower than is usual for rocks of corresponding acidity.

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¶rt;a an¶rt;u a¶rt;uamu(Th, U, K) u ua ¶rt;u(Rb, Sr, Ba, Y, Zr, V, Cr, Ni) m aum n¶rt;a aaum na. naa, m u¶rt;aum n uu aam n aaum u ¶rt;u am aua, u u uu. aum n u uu ma a¶rt;um ¶rt; ¶rt;nn; nnA nua¶rt;ama a au¶rt; u au¶rt;aum (K ₂ O>2,5%, Si O ₂ >68%), nnB ¶rt;u u aum (K ₂ O<2,5%, SiO ₂ <68%). ¶rt; muunnau mm mamumuu m au ¶rt; a u u ¶rt; m ¶rt;u m(Rb, V, Cr, Ni). auaum n¶rt;¶rt;m um- m¶rt; a u -uaum;aumA a¶rt;ma a uum n, uaumB a a ¶rt;aum, a¶rt;um u aam n m m¶rt;a. ¶rt;aum — u unnA — aamum uu ¶rt;au da¶rt;uamu mTh uU.

     

Iterative geophysical tomography

Summary The algorithm of iterative geophysical tomography is presented. The medium is approximated smoothly by means of B-splines. The tww-point problem of ray computation is solved with the aid of paraxial approximation. The parameters of the medium are obtained from the iterative algorithm of minimizing the quadratic form. Two numerical 2-D examples are given.

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u¶rt; au umamuuu mauu. ¶rt;a annuuaa n nu nu -na. ma na aa a nu nu naaua annuauu. aam ¶rt; n a umamu aua uuauauu a¶rt;amu . am nu¶rt; ¶rt;a 2-D u nua.

     

Variations in the Earth's rotation and crustal deformations

a mmuu ¶rt; ¶rt;au nm u , a auauu ma mu au u. aamuam m¶rt; a, ma u mua mu ¶rt;au u ¶rt;aa u uma a; m a mu ¶rt;auu m ¶rt;muam 10% m ¶rt;au, a u nuuau m .     

Study of the velocity conditions in the earth's crust in the regions of the Bohemian massif and the carpathian system along international profiles VI and VII

u¶rt;m n uu ¶rt;u m n u ma n¶rt;aa, nu m¶rt;u u ¶rt;uau. n nuu uu ¶rt;u m n ¶rt;a¶rt; nu NoNo VI, VII. u au u n m a (x, H), ¶rt;auu an¶rt;u ¶rt;u m ¶rt; m¶rt; nu, u mua m nuu (H), aamuu an¶rt;u m a mua ¶rt;¶rt; uu ¶rt;uua u a. u a ¶rt;u m (x, H) amm ¶rt;uuu (u) a m¶rt; nu. m¶rt; u, auuu aau, om aamuam muau an¶rt;u ¶rt;u m, uu , n m u m nu aamuu a nmu, am ma a¶rt;am aa uu ¶rt;u m. aa u a¶rt;u n nu NoNo VI u VII u umuu ¶rt;a. mua m nu (H) num m ¶rt;u amu aua u anam um, ¶rt;a amu ¶rt;aua u ¶rt;- nma (nu No VII). ma ¶rt; ¶rt; aua, maa numa nm m u numa nm ma¶rt;um, a unaa nuu umnmauu a¶rt;uu ¶rt;uau amu aua.     

The vibration magnetometer and the processing of its output signal strongly affected by noise

¶rt;aam ¶rt;a m¶rt;a amu uaa, u u , u auam u ma mum nuu ¶rt; uau aumma. u n u ama u ma n¶rt; ma m¶rt;a nm a umam u naa u ¶rt; nuu. mm m¶rt; n au auu u aau n¶rt;mam a au nm aum nu m unu a a.     

Les formes différentielles extérieures dans la géodésie I: Courbure de Gauss

1) , 2) 3) .     

Fluid infiltration into fault zones: Chemical,isotopic, and mechanical effects

Fluid infiltration into fault zones and their deeper-level counterparts, brittle-ductile shear zones, is examined in diverse tectonic environments. In the 2.7 Ga Abitibi greenstone belt, major tectonic discontinuities, with lateral extents of hundreds of kilometres initiated as listric normal faults accommodating rift extension and acted as sites for komatiite extrusion and locally intense metasomatism. During reverse motion on the structures, accommodating shortening of the belt, these transcrustal faults were utilised as a conduit for the ascent of trondhjemitic magmas from the base of the crust and of alkaline magmas from the asthenosphere and for the discharge of thousands of cubic kilometres of hydrothermal fluids. Such fluids were characterised by ¹⁸O=+6±2, D=–50±20, ¹³C=–4±4, and temperatures of 270 to 450°C, probably derived from devolatilisation of crustal rocks undergoing prograde metamorphism. Hydrothermal fluids were more radiogenic (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.7010 to 0.7040) and possessed higher than did contemporaneous mantle, komatiites or tholeiites, and thus carried a contribution from older sialic basement. A provinciality of⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹³C is evident, signifying that fault plumbing sampled lower crust which was heterogeneous at the scale of tens of kilometres. Mineralised faults possess enrichments of large ion lithophile (LIL), LIL elements, including K, Rb, Ba, Cs, B, and CO₂, and rare elements, such as Au, Ag, As, Sb, Se, Te, Bi, and W. Fluids were characterised by X_{CO 2}0.1, neutral to slightly acidic pH, low salinity 3 wt-%, K/Na=0.1, they carried minor CH₄, CO, and N₂, and they underwent transient effervescence of CO₂ during decompression. Clastic sediments occupy graben developed at fault flexures. The⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar release spectra indicate that fault rocks experienced episodic disturbance on time scales of hundreds of millions of years.At the Grenville front, translation was accommodated along two mylonite zones and an intervening boundary fault. The high-temperature (580°C) and low-temperature (430 to 490°C) mylonite zones, formed in the presence of deep-level crust-equilibrated fluids of metamorphic origin. Late brittle faults contain quartz veins precipitated from fluids with extemely negative ¹⁸O (–14 per mil) at 200 to 300°C. The water may have been derived from downward penetration into fault zones of precipitation of low¹⁸O on a mountain range induced by continental collision, with uplift accommodated at deep levels by the mylonite zones coupled with rebound on the boundary faults.Archean gneisses overlie Proterozoic sediments along thrust surfaces at Lagoa Real, Brazil; the gneisses are transected by brittle-ductile shear zones locally occupied by uranium deposits. Following deformation at 500 to 540°C, in the presence of metamorphic fluids and under conditions of low water-to-rock ratio, shear zones underwent local intense oxidation and desilication. All minerals undergo a shift of –10 per mil, indicating discharge of meteoric-water-recharged formation brines in the underlying Proterozoic sediments up through the Archean gneisses, during overthrusting; 1000 km³ of solutions passed through these structures. The shear zones and Proterozoic sediments are less radiogenic (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.720) than contemporaneous Archean gneisses (0.900), corroborating the transport of fluids and solutes through the structure from a large external reservoir.Major crustal detachment faults of Tertiary age in the Picacho Cordilleran metamorphic core complex of Arizona show an upward transition from undeformed granitic basement through mylonitic to brecciated and hydrothermally altered counterparts. The highest tectonic levels are allochthonous, oxidatively altered Miocene volcanics. This transition is accompanied by an increase of 12 per mil in ¹⁸O, from +7 to +19, and a 400°C decrease in temperature. Lower tectonic levels acted as aquifers for the expulsion of large volumes of higher-temperature reduced metamorphic fluids and/or evolved formation brines. The Miocene allochthon was influenced by a lower-temperature reservoir inducing oxidative potassic alteration; mixing occurred between cool downward-penetrating thermal waters and the hot, deeper aqueous reservoir.In general, flow regimes in these fault and shear zones follow a sequence, from conditions of high temperature and pressure with locally derived fluids at low water-to-rock ratios, during initiation of the structures, to high fluxes of reduced formation or metamorphic fluids along conduits as the structures propagate and intersect hydrothermal reservoirs. Later in the tectonic evolution and at shallower crustal levels there was incursion of oxidising fluids from near-surface reservoirs into the faults. In general, magmatism, tectonics, and fluid motion are intimately related.     

Origin of the fumarolic fluids of Vulcano Island,Italy and implications for volcanic surveillance

Variations in D and ¹⁸O values with H₂O contents and outlet temperatures indicate that the fumaroles of La Fossa crater have discharged mixtures of magmatic water and marine hydrothermal water, since 1979. The contribution of meteoric water was low in the period 1979–1982 and very low afterwards. The ¹⁸O values of the marine-hydrothermal component of +5 to +7.2 are due to isotopic exchange with the ¹⁸O-rich silicates of the rocks under high-temperature and low-permeability conditions. The ¹⁸O value of the magmatic end-member is generally +3.5 to +4.3, although values as high as +5.5 to +6.5 were reached in the summer of 1988, when magma degassing appears to have extended into the core of the magma body. The D values of the end-member were close to -20, typical of andesitic waters. Both the isotopic values and chemical data strongly support a dry model, consisting of a central magmatic gas column and a surrounding hydrothermal envelope, in which marine hydrothermal brines move along limited fracture zones to undergo total evaporation on approaching the conduits of magmatic fluids. The vents at the eastern and western boundaries of the fumarolic field are fed by fluids whose pressure is governed by the coexistence of vapor, liquid and halite, giving rise to a high risk of phreato magmatic explosions, should magma penetrate into these wet environments. Most La Fossa eruptions were triggered by an initial hydrothermal blast and continued with a series of phreatomagmatic explosions. The fluids discharged by the Forgia Vecchia fumaroles are mixed with meteoric water, which is largely evaporated, although subordinate loss of condensed steam may be responsible for scrubbing most of the acidic gas species. The temperatures and pressures, and the risk of a sudden pressure increase, are low. A boiling hydrothermal aquifer at 230° C is present underneath the Baia di Levante beach. This area has a minor risk of hydrothermal explosions.     

On the possibility of long-range forecasts of geomagnetic activity

Summary The relation between geomagnetic activity and solar activity is studied in long intervals and in individual 11-year cycles, characterized by certain basic parameters, in connection with investigating the prognostic significance of long-term fluctuations of geomagnetic activity [1, 2]. A number of properties as well as sufficiently close relations with a prognostic significance have been found, such as the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, the 22-year cycle of change in the form of the behaviour of geomagnetic activity in 11-year cycles, long-term concurrence of solar and geomagnetic activity and its changes within the 11-year cycle, relations between solar and geomagnetic parameters characterizing the 11-year cycle.

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a auu uu u ¶rt; uaum amum ¶rt;u nma u u m¶rt; 11-mu ua am mu ¶rt; ¶rt;m nuauaum amumu.

     

Source characteristics of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake inferred from teleseismic body waves

We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM _o =3.4×10²⁰ Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M _o =3.7×10²⁰ Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E _s /M _o , where andE _s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.     

Heat flow and gravity in Czechoslovakia

50 au mn nma a mumuu auu, m ¶rt; aul mmuu uma, a¶rt;au n mu u¶rt;a u uua aauu u mmu. mam naam, m amu mn nma mmmm mu¶rt;a, u a au :     

La diffusione delle acque Ioniche nel Tirreno attraverso lo Stretto di Messina

Riassunto Coi dati rilevati nel Settembre 1924 dalla Mario Bianco a Nord dello Stretto di Messina si determinano i coefficienti di diffusione turbolenta, longitudinale e trasversale, per gli strati superficiali della corrente scendente convogliata dallo Stretto medesimo: ottenendo valori in buon accordo con quelli calcolati da altri AA. per altre correnti marine. Inoltre si forniscono elementi sull'estensione per diffusione in profondità delle acque ioniche penetrate nel Tirreno.

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Summary Using the data gathered by the ship Mario Bianco during September 1924 the Authors make an attempt to calculate the longitudinal and lateral eddy-diffusion for the current north of the Messina-strait: the resulting coefficients agree well with the already known values. Further, the headlines of the diffusion of the Ionian waters in the Thyrrenian Sea are inferred and discussed.

     

Versuch einer statistischen Untersuchung über die Eigenschaften der Windsee bei abnehmendem Wind

Zusammenfassung Visuelle Beobachtungen der Bordwetterwarten auf den Fischereischutzbooten Meerkatze und Poseidon sowie auf dem Fischereiforschungsschiff Anton Dohrn werden statistisch bearbeitet, um Feststellungen über die Art der Seegangsabnahme bei abflauendem Wind zu treffen. In ähnlicher Weise werden Beobachtungen des in der Deutschen Bucht stationierten Feuerschiffes P 8 untersucht. Trotz großer Streuung der Einzelwerte lassen sich vorläufige quantitative Zusammenhänge zwischen Seegangsabnahme und den die Seegangseigenschaften beeinflussenden Faktoren ermitteln.

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Essay at a statistical investigation of the properties of the wind generated sea at decreasing wind

Summary Visual observations of the meteorological stations on board the fishery protection vessels Meerkatze and Poseidon as well as on board the fishery research vessel Anton Dohrn are statistically elaborated with a view to determine the nature of decreasing sea at decreasing wind. In a similar way, observations from the light vessel P 8 in the German Bight are investigated. Though the variations of the individual values are quite appreciable it is possible to discern the existence of provisional quantitative correlations between the decrease of the sea and those factors influencing the properties of the sea.

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Essai d'étudier d'une manière statistique les propriétés de la mer du vent en présence d'un vent affaiblissant

Résumé Des observations visuelles faites par les stations météorologiques à bord des navires garde-pêche «Meerkatze» et «Poseidon» ainsi qu'à bord du navire explorateur de pêche «Anton Dohrn» sont étudiées d'une manière statistique pour déterminer la nature de l'apaisement de la mer du vent en présence d'un vent affaiblissant. Les observations du bateau feu «P 8» dans la baie Allemande sont soumises à une étude analogue. Bien que les valeurs individuelles varient considérablement entre elles, on peut constater la présence des corrélations préliminaires quantitatives entre l'apaisement de la mer du vent et les facteurs influant sur les propriétés de la mer du vent.

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Herrn Dr. Richard Becker bin ich für die Erstellung der statistischen Unterlagen zu Dank verpflichtet. Der Deutsche Wetterdienst hat die Untersuchung durch die Bereitstellung von Geldmitteln zur Durchführung der statistischen Arbeiten unterstützt.     

The ∼2 ka subplinian eruption of Montaña Blanca,Tenerife

The latest cycle of volcanism on Tenerife has involved the construction of two stratovolcanoes, Teide and Pico Viejo (PV), and numerous flank vent systems on the floor of the Las Cañadas Caldera, which has been partially infilled by magmatic products of the basanite-phonolite series. The only known substantial post-caldera explosive eruption occurred 2 ka bp from satellite vents at Montaña Blanca (MB), to the east of Teide and at PV. The MB eruption began with extrusion of 0.022 km³ of phonolite lava (unit I) from a WNW-ESE fissure system. The eruption then entered an explosive subplinian phase. Over a 7–11 hour period, 0.25 km³ (DRE) of phonolitic pumice (unit II) was deposited from a 15 km high subplinian column, dispersed to the NE by 10 m/s winds. Pyroclastic activity also occurred from vents near PV to the west of Teide. Fire-fountaining towards the end of the explosive phase formed a proximal welded spatter facies. The eruption closed with extrusion of small volume domes and lavas (0.025 km³) at both vent systems. Geochemical, petrological data and Fe-Ti oxide geothermometry indicate the eruption of a chemically and thermally stratified magma system. The most mafic and hottest (875°C) unit I magma can yield the more evolved and cooler (755–825°C) phonolites of units II and III by between 7 and 11% fractional crystallization of an assemblage dominated by alkali feldspar. Analyses of glass inclusions from phenocrysts by ion microprobe show that the pumice was derived from the water-saturated roof zone of a chamber containing 3.0–4.5 wt.% H₂O and abundant halogens (F0.35wt.%). Hotter, more mafic tephritic magma intermingled with the evolved phonolites in banded pumice, indicating the injection of mafic magma into the system during or just before eruption. Reconstruction ot the event indicates a small chamber chemically stratified by in situ (side-wall) crystallization at a depth of 3–4 km below PV. Although phonolite is the dominant product of the youngest activity of the Teide-PV system, there has been no eruption of phonolitic magma for at least 500 years from teide itself and for 2000 years from the PV system. Therefore there could be a large volume of highly evolved, volatile-rich magma accumulating in these magma systems. An eruption of fluorine-rich magma comparable with MB would have major damaging effects on the island.     

The oceans as source of cloud-forming nuclei

Summary The number and size of salt particles produced by the bursting of air bubbles in sea water has been measured. Bubbles of diameters varying between 1/2 and 2 mm each produced about 300 nuclei the sizes of which, under the electron microscope, were mainly between 0.1 and 0.5 diameter. They appeared to consist mainly of sodium chloride, the smallest ones containing only 10^–15 g of salt.These results, together with measurements of the size distribution of salt nuclei collected over the oceans in areas of spray formation, indicate that the total concentrations of salt nuclei over the oceans in winds of up to 15 m sec^–1 probably do not exceed 100 cm^–3. The corresponding rate of production of salt nuclei at the sea surface is estimated to be 1000 cm^–2 sec^–1. It is therefore inferred that sea spray contributes perhaps only one-fifth of the nuclei involved in cloud formation, the majority being the products of combustion, either natural or man-made.