中国大陆精密重力潮汐改正模型

利用理论和实验重力固体潮模型,充分考虑全球海潮和中国近海潮汐的负荷效应,建立了中国大陆的精密重力潮汐改正模型.结果表明,采用不同的固体潮模型会对重力潮汐结果产生相对变化幅度小于0.06％的差异;在沿海地区海潮负荷的影响约为整个潮汐的4％,而中部地区约为1％,其中中国近海潮汐模型的影响约占整个海潮负荷的10%,内插或外推潮波的负荷约占海潮负荷的3％.通过比较实测的重力数据表明,本文给出的重力潮汐改正模型的精度远远优于0.5×10-8 m·s-2,说明了本文构建的模型的实用性,可为中国大陆高精度重力测量提供有效参考和精密的改正模型.     

Loading effect of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide on the gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tides at superconducting gravimeter stations

The gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tide are the amplitude factor δ, which is the ratio of gravity variations induced by polar motion for a real Earth to variations computed for a rigid one, and the phase difference κ between the observed and the rigid gravity pole tide. They can be estimated from the records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs). However, they are affected by the loading effect of the ocean pole tide. Recent results from TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) altimeter confirm that the ocean pole tide has a self-consistent equilibrium response. Accordingly, we calculate the gravity loading effects as well as their influence on the gravimetric parameters of gravity pole tide at all the 26 SG stations in the world on the assumption of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide model. The gravity loading effect is evaluated between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2006. Numerical results show that the amplitude of the gravity loading effect reaches 10⁻⁹ m s⁻², which is larger than the accuracy (10⁻¹⁰ m s⁻²) of a SG. The gravimetric factor δ is 1% larger at all SG stations. Then, the contribution of a self-consistent ocean pole tide to the pole tide gravimetric parameters cannot be ignored as it exceeds the current accuracy of the estimation of the pole tide gravity factors. For the nine stations studied in Ducarme et al. [Ducarme, B., Venedikov, A.P., Arnoso, J., et al., 2006. Global analysis of the GGP superconducting gravimeters network for the estimation of the pole tide gravimetric amplitude factor. J. Geodyn. 41, 334–344.], the mean of the modeled tidal factors δ_m = 1.1813 agrees very well with the result of a global analysis δ_CH = 1.1816 ± 0.0047 in that paper. On the other hand, the modeled phase difference κ_m varies from −0.273° to 0.351°. Comparing to the two main periods of the gravity pole tide, annual period and Chandler period, κ_m is too small to be considered. Therefore, The computed time difference κ_L induced by a self-consistent ocean pole tide produces a negligible effect on κ_m. It confirms the results of Ducarme et al., 2006, where no convincing time difference was found in the SG records.     

Analysis and comparison of the tidal gravity observations obtained with LCR-ET20 spring gravimeter

Introduction The tidal variation signals of the solid Earth recorded with the modern measuring techniques can be used to provide effectively the means to cognize the Earths motion, deformation and structure character, especially to monitor the material motion in the Earths interior. In the recent 20 years, the distribution character of the global gravity field has made great progress since the continuous and deep theoretical studies in geophysics and geodesy domains. The successful manufactur…     

扰动重力梯度张量单分量和组合分量最小二乘配置法模型的建立

建立了利用扰动重力梯度张量Tzz分量和Txx+Tyy、Tzz-Txx-Tyy组合分量确定地球重力场的调和分析法模型,进一步推导了扰动重力梯度张量对角线三分量的自协方差和互协方差函数的级数展开式,推导了单分量、组合分量与重力位系数之间协方差函数的实用计算公式,给出了利用单分量和组合分量解算地球重力场模型的最小二乘配置法基本原理公式.结果表明,最小二乘配置法具有一定的抗差能力,随着观测数据误差的不断增大,其恢复的重力场模型有效阶次不断降低,精度也不断下降;Tzz-Txx-Tyy组合分量解算重力场模型的精度最高,其次为Tzz分量,Txx+Tyy组合分量最差.     

地质雷达技术指标的标定研究

近年来,地质雷达勘探作为一种重要的工程无损勘探方法,在我国已广泛应用,并取得了很多重要成果.目前,引进的地质雷达和我国自己生产的地质雷达种类很多,但对地质雷达设备本身性能指标的标定或评价方法却是个空白,本文参照美国德克萨斯交通学院和全美地质雷达使用者协会建议的方法对我们使用的地质雷达系统进行了性能标定,并根据勘探实践需要的指标,对地质雷达辐射子波和频率域参数的技术指标进行了标定方法的研究并给出了相应的结果.     

基于改进型图像信息方法的汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征研究

震前加速破坏阶段地壳岩石破裂过程中可能辐射电磁信号,提取与之相关的电磁信号异常有助于认识地震孕育及破坏过程,从而为防震减灾提供支持.本文提出了改进型图像信息方法(Modified Pattern Informatics Method,MPI方法),并用于汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征信息的提取.通过分析对比处理前后的DEMETER电磁卫星时空图像可以发现,原始时空图像一般存在季节性和空间性的变化规律,较难获得有意义的信息;而采用MPI方法处理后,则发现汶川大地震前,电离层参量存在明显的异常变化.从而,证明了MPI方法具有消除背景趋势、突出短期变化的能力,可以有效地提取强震相关的电磁前兆信息.     

On the identification of ENSO-induced rainfall and runoff variability: a comparison of methods and indices

Abstract

It is known that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon induces marked climate variability across many parts of the world. However, in seeking useful relationships between ENSO and climate, several indices are available. In addition to the choice of index, previous studies assessing ENSO effects have employed a range of different methods to classify periods as El Niño, La Niña or Neutral. It is therefore clear that significant subjectivity exists in the adoption of ENSO classification schemes. In this study, several ENSO classification methods are applied to a range of ENSO indices. Each method-index combination is investigated to determine which provides the strongest relationship with rainfall and runoff in the Williams River catchment, New South Wales, Australia. The results demonstrate substantial differences between the methods and indices. The Multivariate ENSO Index (or MEI) is found to provide the best classification irrespective of method. The potential for forecasting ENSO-related effects on rainfall, runoff and river abstractions is then investigated. A “rise rule” to account for dynamic ENSO trends is also assessed. Strong relationships were found to exist with runoff (rainfall) up to nine (eight) months in advance of the Summer/autumn period. Implications for improved forecasting of potential river abstractions are apparent.     

2004年阳江MS4.9地震震源参数分析

利用广东数字地震台网的资料计算了2004年9月17日广东阳江Ms4.9地震的震源机制为:节面走向57°,倾角47°,滑动角69°,主压应力方向342°,倾角0°,主张应力方向252°,倾角75°,属逆断层性质;地震矩为1.69×1015N·m,应力降为1.7 MPa,震源半径为876 m.根据阳江地区震前22个ML＞2.5的中小地震震源参数,得到一些经验关系.S波拐角频率随时间的变化显示出Ms4.9地震前有下降趋势;阳江序列P轴方位角的变化显示出震前4个月应力开始趋于一致.     

Assessing the relationships between elevation and extreme precipitation with various durations in southern Taiwan using spatial regression models

A spatially autocorrelated effect exists in precipitation of a mountainous basin. This study examines the relationship between maximum annual rainfall and elevation in the Kaoping River Basin of southern Taiwan using spatial regression models (i.e. geographically weighted regression (GWR), simultaneous autoregression (SAR), and conditional autoregression (CAR)). Results show that the GWR, SAR, and CAR models can improve spatial data fitting and provide an enhanced estimation for the rainfall–elevation relationship than the ordinary least squares approach. In particular, GWR achieves the most accurate estimation, and SAR and CAR achieve similar performance in terms of the Akaike information criterion. The relationship between extreme rainfall and elevation for longer duration is more concise than that for short durations. Results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation depends on elevation and that rainfall patterns in study area are heterogeneous between the southwestern plain and the eastern mountain area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On modelling the effects of afforestation on acidification in heterogeneous catchments at different spatial and temporal scales

A modelling approach is presented for simulating and predicting future changes in streamwater Gran alkalinity throughout a large, heterogeneous river system. The methodology is based on integrating End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA), the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) and spatial data describing the catchment characteristics stored on a Geographical Information System (GIS). These are integrated within a Functional Unit Network (FUN) to predict the changes in Gran alkalinity resulting from possible future changes in atmospheric deposition and land use (low intensity afforestation) in the River Dee catchment, NE Scotland. Model results indicate that declining sulphate and constant nitrogen deposition, combined with low intensity Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) afforestation are unlikely to contribute significantly to streamwater acidification.     

北极地区低平流层惯性重力波的观测研究

南极地区重力波活动有大量报道,相对而言,北极地区重力波的研究还很少.本文利用极区Ny-Alesund站点（78.9°N,11.9°E）无线电探空仪从2012年4月1日到2017年3月31日共5年的观测数据,统计分析了北极地区低平流层惯性重力波的特征.观测显示,月平均纬向风在20 km以下盛行东向风,再随着高度增加,逐渐呈现出半年振荡现象.对流层顶高度在5~13 km范围内变化,其月平均高度显示出年循环,最高出现在夏季,约为10 km,最低出现在冬季,约为8.5 km.对流层和低平流层月平均温度都显示出明显的年周期变化,这与中低纬度观测结果有所不同.结合Lomb-Scargle谱分析和矢端曲线方法,估算了准单色惯性重力波参数.个例研究表明,低平流层惯性重力波呈现出远离源区的自由传播性质.统计结果显示,惯性重力波的水平和垂直波长分别集中在50~450 km和1~4 km范围内,本征频率集中在1~2.5倍惯性频率间,这些值都比中低纬度观测值稍小.垂直方向本征相速度主要集中在-0.3~0 m·s^-1,而纬向和经向本征相速度集中在-40~40 m·s^-1之间.在5年的观测中,大约91.5%的惯性重力波向上传播.在冬季和早春,由于极地平流层极涡活动,激发出向下传播的惯性重力波,因此,向下传播的比例上升到相应月份的20%左右.由于低层大气盛行的东向风的滤波效应,低平流层大部分惯性重力波向西传播.波能量呈现出明显的年周期变化,最大值在冬季、最小值在夏季,与北半球中低纬度观测结果一致,表明北半球重力波活动普遍冬季强、夏季弱.

     

Simulation of the stratospheric gravity waves generated by the Typhoon Matsa in 2005

The generation of stratospheric gravity waves(GWs) due to typhoon is simulated by using a meso-scale model(WRF) with a typhoon case,the Matsa in 2005.An 8-day model run that covers the major stages of the Matsa’s development reproduces the key features of the typhoon.For example,good agreements in the typhoon’s track,the intensity,and the spiral clouds,as well as mean state of stratosphere,are seen between the simulation results and the observation.Simulation results clearly show that with typhoon propagates northwestward,pronounced stratospheric GWs are generated continuously in the vicinity of Matsa.The GWs exhibit the typical curve-like wave fronts away from the Typhoon Matsa,and propagate preferentially in the upstream of the background winds.These characteristics reflect that the stratospheric GWs are closely associated with the typhoon,and thus the GWs are referred to as Tropical Cyclone related Gravity Waves(TC-GWs).The results also show that these waves should have a rather large horizontal scale so that the outmost wave fronts can be seen at the distance of ～1000 km to the typhoon center in the horizontal plane of 20 km.This is consistent with the phenomenon of stratospheric TC-GWs with ～1000 km horizontal scale disclosed by the previous observational analysis results.     

Wavelet analysis on transient behaviour of tidal amplitude fluctuations observed by meteor radar in the lower thermosphere above Bulgaria

On the basis of bispectral analysis applied to the hourly data set of neutral wind measured by meteor radar in the MLT region above Bulgaria it was demonstrated that nonlinear processes are frequently and regularly acting in the mesopause region. They contribute significantly to the short-term tidal variability and are apparently responsible for the observed complicated behavior of the tidal characteristics. A Morlet wavelet transform is proposed as a technique for studying nonstationary signals. By simulated data it was revealed that the Morlet wavelet transform is especially convenient for analyzing signals with: (1) a wide range of dominant frequencies which are localized in different time intervals; (2) amplitude and frequency modulated spectral components, and (3) singular, wave-like events, observed in the neutral wind of the MLT region and connected mainly with large-scale disturbances propagated from below. By applying a Morlet wavelet transform to the hourly values of the amplitudes of diurnal and semidiurnal tides the basic oscillations with periods of planetary waves (1.5/20 days), as well as their development in time, are obtained. A cross-wavelet analysis is used to clarify the relation between the tidal and mean neutral wind variability. The results of bispectral analysis indicate which planetary waves participated in the nonlinear coupling with the atmospheric tides, while the results of cross-wavelet analysis outline their time intervals if these interactions are local.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

Palaeomagnetism and palaeogeography of Variscan formations of the Bohemian massif: A comparison with other regions in Europe

Summary Statistical evaluation of palaeomagnetic data from the Early Carboniferous to the Middle Triassic rocks in Europe, north of the Alpine tectonic belt, confirmed previously defined palaeotectonic stability of the whole European Plate since the Early Permian. The Trans-European Suture Zone represents a plate boundary, SW of which the Early Variscan and pre-Variscan formations show different degrees of palaeotectonic rotations, predominantly rotations of clockwise sense. A theoretical model simulating the translation and rotation movements was proposed showing that the West European Variscides underwent Hercynian palaeotectonic rotations comparable with the rotations derived for the Alpine tectonic belt.     

A comparison of anthropogenic mercury pollution in Kastela Bay (Croatia) with pristine estuaries in Ore (Sweden) and Krka (Croatia)

Anthropogenic mercury pollution was studied in Kastela Bay (Croatia), 10 years after chloralkaline plant (PVC) stopped production. The concentration of total mercury determined in sediments which are composed mainly of calcite and quartz, are in the range 14,280-30,400 ng/g. The values are higher than reported in the literature for Elbe and Seine estuaries and also above 25,000 ng/g used for criterion in remediation project in Minamata Bay. The concentration of methylmercury 6.05-36.74 ng/g are typical for slightly to highly contaminated estuarine sediments. The low ratio of methylmercury to total mercury found in sediments of Kastela Bay is in the range 0.04-0.18%. It can be explained that in this region predominate conditions which do not promote in-situ methylation. Sediments were found to be highly anoxic. Concentrations of total mercury in unfiltered surface waters are in the range 69-145 ng/l and in unfiltered bottom waters in the range 230-1,418 ngl(-1). High concentrations found in bottom waters suggest that either resuspension or partial dissolution of sediments takes place. An experiment performed on filtered and unfiltered waters showed that about 85% of total mercury in surface water and almost 100% in bottom water was retained on 45 microm filters. To demonstrate contrasts, two pristine estuaries from norths and south Europe were studied. Silicious sediments of Ore estuary (Sweden) and calcareous sediments of Krka estuary (Croatia) have total mercury concentrations close to accepted background level. The ratio of methylmercury to total mercury is < or = 1% in all samples with one exception. The highest observed ratio (2.70%) was in the surface sediment from E2 station in Krka estuary measured in March 2000. This location is suitable for studying methylmercury formation in pristine environment.     

噪声HVSR法在OBS探测中的应用——以珠江口外海OBS台阵为例

噪声谱比法(horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, HVSR)通常用于确定沉积层的厚度, 而应用于海底地震仪(OBS)以获取海底沉积厚度的研究较少.本文将HVSR法应用于珠江口外海域OBS台阵中, 验证了该方法用于OBS探测中的可靠性.通过对珠江口外海27台OBS收集的三分量地震噪声记录进行处理, 得到了所有台站的HVSR曲线.有23台OBS的HVSR曲线可获取与沉积层厚度相关的峰值频率, 通过经验公式可以计算得到沉积层厚度.结果显示, 珠江口外海域沉积层(新生代地层)厚度范围为100~3500 m, 研究区东南部沉积层远厚于西北部, 且沉积厚度受到NEE向滨海断裂带控制.本文获得的结果与以往依靠反射地震剖面和钻井等获得的沉积层厚度结果基本一致.进一步分析发现研究区新生代地层具有多层结构, 大部分HVSR曲线在5~12 Hz存在振幅最大的波峰, 认为是与第四系厚度相关的峰值频率, 继而确定第四系厚度为20~50 m.本研究拓展了HVSR法的应用领域, 为获取海底沉积层厚度提供了一种新的可靠方法.

     

Evaluating the performance of climate models in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of rainfall events

ABSTRACT

Rainfall events largely control hydrological processes occurring on and in the ground, but the performance of climate models in reproducing rainfall events has not been investigated enough to guide selection among the models when making hydrological projections. We proposed to compare the durations, intensities, and pause periods, as well as depths of rainfall events when assessing the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing the hydrological characteristics of observed rainfall. We also compared the sizes of design storm events and the frequency and severity of drought to demonstrate the consequences of GCM selection. The results show that rainfall and extreme hydrological event projections could significantly vary depending on climate model selection and weather stations, suggesting the need for a careful and comprehensive evaluation of GCM in the hydrological analysis of climate change. The proposed methods are expected to help to improve the accuracy of future hydrological projections for water resources planning.     

南海中北部陆缘横波速度结构及其构造意义

纵横波联合勘探可以得到更多关于岩石圈层岩性、物性等介质属性方面的信息,有效提高地壳物质组成的约束性.在纵波速度结构模型的基础上,通过射线追踪和走时拟合对OBS2006-3地震剖面径向分量的转换震相进行了横波速度结构模拟.结果表明:沉积层1、沉积层2的横波速度分别为0.7~0.9 km/s和1.6~1.7 km/s,波速比由2.64~3.16变化到2.41左右,较高的波速比表明沉积层固结程度不高;中生代沉积层横波速度由浅部的2.6 km/s增大到3.0 km/s,波速比为1.74~1.80;地壳中波速比为1.74~1.82,表明该剖面地壳为陆壳性质;下地壳高速层的横波速度为4.0~4.2 km/s,纵横波速比为1.73~1.78,揭示高速层的物质组成为铁镁质的基性岩,推断其与海底扩张停止之后的岩浆底侵作用有关.