Estimation of the uncertainty of future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and its radiative forcing

An ensemble experiment with the IAP RAS CM was performed to estimate future changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, its radiative forcing, and characteristics of the climate-carbon cycle feedback. Different ensemble members were obtained by varying the governing parameters of the terrestrial carbon cycle of the model. For 1860–2100, anthropogenic CO₂ emissions due to fossil-fuel burning and land use were prescribed from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries. For the 21st century, emissions were taken from the SRES A2 scenario. The ensemble of numerical experiments was analyzed via Bayesian statistics, which made the uncertainty range of estimates much narrower. To distinguish between realistic and unrealistic ensemble members, the observational characteristics of the carbon cycle for the 20th century were used as a criterion. For the given emission scenario, the carbon dioxide concentration expected by the end of the 21st century falls into the range 818 ± 46 ppm (an average plus or minus standard deviation). The corresponding global instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (relative to the preindustrial state) lies in the uncertainty range 6.8 ± 0.4 W m^?2. The uncertainty range of the strength of the climate-carbon cycle feedback by the end of the 21st century reaches 59 ± 98 ppm in terms of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and 0.4 ± 0.7 W m^?2 in terms of the radiative forcing.     

Estimating climate changes in the northern hemisphere in the 21st century under alternative scenarios of anthropogenic forcing

Possible changes in the climate characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century are estimated using a climate model (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP), Russian Academy of Sciences) under different scenarios of variations in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including those formed at the OIAP on the basis of SRES emission scenarios (group I) and scenarios (group II) developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI). Over the 21st century, the global annual mean warming at the surface amounts to 1.2?C2.6°C under scenarios I and 0.9?C1.2°C under scenarios II. For all scenarios II, starting from the 2060s, a decrease is observed in the rate of increase in the global mean annual near-surface air temperature. The spatial structures of variations in the mean annual near-surface air temperature in the 21st century, which have been obtained for both groups of scenarios (with smaller absolute values for scenarios II), are similar. Under scenarios I, within the extratropical latitudes, the mean annual surface air temperature increases by 3?C7°C in North America and by 3?C5°C in Eurasia in the 21st century. Under scenarios II, the near-surface air temperature increases by 2?C4°C in North America and by 2?C3°C in Eurasia. An increase in the total amount of precipitation by the end of the 21st century is noted for both groups of scenarios; the most significant increase in the precipitation rate is noted for the land of the Northern Hemisphere. By the late 21st century, the total area of the near-surface permafrost soils of the land of the Northern Hemisphere decreases to 3.9?C9.5 10⁶ km² for scenarios I and 9.7?C11.0 × 10⁶ km² for scenarios II. The decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost soils by 2091?C2100 (as compared to 2001?C2010) amounts to approximately 65% for scenarios I and 40% for scenarios II. By the end of the 21st century, in regions of eastern Siberia, in which near-surface permafrost soils are preserved, the characteristic depths of seasonal thawing amount to 0.5?C2.5 m for scenarios I and 1?C2 m for scenarios II. In western Siberia, the depth of seasonal thawing amounts to 1?C2 m under both scenarios I and II.     

Changes in climatic characteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land in the 21st century: Assessments with the IAP RAS climate model

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2–5 K (3–10 K) by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961–1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1–4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S _p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km², and then decreases to 11–12 million km² in 2036–2065 and 4–8 million km² in 2071–2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2 m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54–55 million km² to 38–42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45–49 million km² to 31–37 million km². For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s–2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES B1, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8–9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.     

Oxygen Utilization and Organic Carbon Remineralization in the Upper Water Column of the Pacific Ocean

As a part of the JGOFS synthesis and modeling project, researchers have been working to synthesize the WOCE/JGOFS/DOE/NOAA global CO₂ survey data to better understand carbon cycling processes in the oceans. Working with international investigators we have compiled a Pacific Ocean data set with over 35,000 unique samples analyzed for at least two carbon species, oxygen, nutrients, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) tracers, and hydrographic parameters. We use these data here to estimate in-situ oxygen utilization rates (OUR) and organic carbon remineralization rates within the upper water column of the Pacific Ocean. OURs are derived from the observed apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and the water age estimates based on CFCs in the upper water and natural radiocarbon in deep waters. The rates are generally highest just below the euphotic zone and decrease with depth to values that are much lower and nearly constant in water deeper than 1200 m. OURs ranged from about 0.02–10 μmol kg⁻¹yr⁻¹ in the upper water masses from about 100–1000 m, and averaged = 0.10 μmol kg⁻¹yr⁻¹ in deep waters below 1200 m. The OUR data can be used to directly estimate organic carbon remineralization rates using the C:O Redfield ratio given in Anderson and Sarmiento (1994). When these rates are integrated we obtain an estimate of 5.3 ± 1 Pg C yr⁻¹ for the remineralization of organic carbon in the upper water column of the Pacific Ocean. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatiotemporal Decreases of Nutrients and Chlorophyll-a in the Surface Mixed Layer of the Western North Pacific from 1971 to 2000

Using time series of hydrographic data in the wintertime and summertime obtained along 137°E from 1971 to 2000, we found that the average contents of nutrients in the surface mixed layer showed linear decreasing trends of 0.001∼0.004 μmol-PO₄ l⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 0.01∼0.04 μmol-NO₃ l⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with the decrease of density. The water column Chl-a (CHL) and the net community production (NCP) had also declined by 0.27∼0.48 mg-Chl m⁻² yr⁻¹ and 0.08∼0.47 g-C-NCP m⁻² yr⁻¹ with a clear oscillation of 20.8±0.8 years. These changes showed a strong negative correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) with a time lag of 2 years (R = 0.89 ± 0.02). Considering the recent significant decrease of O₂ over the North Pacific subsurface water, these findings suggest that the long-term decreasing trend of surface-deep water mixing has caused the decrease of marine biological activity in the surface mixed layer with a bidecadal oscillation over the western North Pacific.     

Climate and carbon cycle variations in the 20th and 21st centuries in a model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), has been supplemented by a zero-dimensional carbon cycle model. With the carbon dioxide emissions prescribed for the second half of the 19th century and for the 20th century, the model satisfactorily reproduces characteristics of the carbon cycle over this period. However, with continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2), the climate-carbon cycle feedback in the model leads to an additional atmospheric CO₂ increase (in comparison with the case where the influence of climate changes on the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface is disregarded). This additional increase is varied in the range 67–90 ppmv depending on the scenario and is mainly due to the dynamics of soil carbon storage. The climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter varies nonmonotonically with time. Positions of its extremes separate characteristic periods of the change in the intensity of anthropogenic emissions and of climate variations. By the end of the 21st century, depending on the emission scenario, the carbon dioxide concentration is expected to increase to 615–875 ppmv and the global temperature will rise by 2.4–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial value. In the 20th–21st centuries, a general growth of the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean and its reduction in terrestrial ecosystems can be expected. In general, by the end of the 21st century, the more aggressive emission scenarios are characterized by a smaller climate-carbon cycle feedback parameter, a lower sensitivity of climate to a single increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions stored in the atmosphere and the ocean, and a smaller fraction of emissions in terrestrial ecosystems.     

Eutrophication and annual primary production of phytoplankton in the deep-water part of the Black Sea

Using the data of daily primary production, as well as intraannual and long-term changes in the concentration of chlorophyll “a” and hydrochemical characteristics, the annual primary production of phytoplankton in the deep-water part of the Black Sea is estimated for the three key periods in the contemporary evolution of the sea: preeutrophication, very intense eutrophication, and the present-day period characterized by deeutrophication. It is shown that eutrophication in the second part of the 20th Century led to an increase in the production level not only in the shelf of the Black Sea, but also its deep-water areas. By the end of the 1980s and the early 1990s, the value of the annual primary production in this part of the sea increased from 63 ± 18 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (in the 1960s) up to 135 ± 30 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. On the contrary, after 1993, mainly because of reduced runoff of biogenic substances into the Black Sea from land based sources, there was a decrease in the annual production of phytoplankton in the deep-water areas of the sea, which is currently about 105 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹.     

Air-sea exchange of mercury in Tokyo Bay

In Tokyo Bay the concentrations of dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) in the surface seawater and total gaseous mercury (TGM) over the sea were measured during December 2003, October 2004 and January 2005. Based on these data, the evasional fluxes of mercury from the sea surface were estimated using a gas exchange model. In addition, an automatic wet and dry deposition sampler was used to measure the wet and dry depositional fluxes of mercury from December 2003 to November 2004 at three locations in and near Tokyo Bay. The results indicate that the average DGM and TGM levels of seven locations are 52 ± 26 ng m⁻³ and 1.9 ± 0.6 ng m⁻³, respectively, which shows that the surface seawater in Tokyo Bay is supersaturated with gaseous mercury, leading to an average mercury evasional flux of 140 ± 120 ng m⁻²d⁻¹. On the other hand, the annual average wet and dry depositional fluxes of mercury at three locations were 19 ± 3 μg m⁻²yr⁻¹ and 20 ± 9 μg m⁻²yr⁻¹, respectively. These depositional fluxes correspond to the daily average total depositional flux of 110 ± 20 ng m⁻²d⁻¹. Thus, it is suggested that in Tokyo Bay, the evasional fluxes of mercury are comparable to the depositional fluxes.     

Export Production in the Equatorial and North Pacific Derived from Dissolved Oxygen, Nutrient and Carbon Data

A global ocean inverse model that includes the 3D ocean circulation as well as the production, sinking and remineralization of biogenic particulate matter is used to estimate the carbon export flux in the Pacific, north of 10°S. The model exploits the existing large datasets for hydrographic parameters, dissolved oxygen, nutrients and carbon, and determines optimal export production rates by fitting the model to the observed water column distributions by means of the “adjoint method”. In the model, the observations can be explained satisfactorily with an integrated carbon export production of about 3 Gt C yr⁻¹ (equivalent to 3⋅10¹⁵ gC yr⁻¹) for the considered zone of the Pacific Ocean. This amounts to about a third of the global ocean carbon export of 9.6 Gt C yr⁻¹ in the model. The highest export fluxes occur in the coastal upwelling region off northwestern America and in the tropical eastern Pacific. Due to the large surface area, the open-ocean, oligotrophic region in the central North Pacific also contributes significantly to the total North Pacific export flux (0.45 Gt C yr⁻¹), despite the rather small average flux densities in this region (13 gC m⁻²yr⁻¹). Model e-ratios (calculated here as ratios of model export production to primary production, as inferred from satellite observations) range from as high a value as 0.4 in the tropical Pacific to 0.17 in the oligotrophic central north Pacific. Model e-ratios in the northeastern Pacific upwelling regions amount to about 0.3 and are lower than previous estimates. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in suspended matter and sediments from the Godavari estuary

Spatial distribution of the carbon and nitrogen content and their isotopic enrichment in suspended matter and sediments were measured in the Godavari estuary to identify the sources and transformation mechanism of organic matter. Significant variability in isotopic distribution was found over the entire length of the Godavari estuary, suggesting multiple sources of organic matter. The mean isotopic ratios (δ¹³C_sed −25.1 ± 0.9, δ¹³C_sus −24.9 ± 1, δ¹⁵N_sed 8.0 ± 2 and δ¹⁵N_sus 6.5 ± 0.9‰) and elemental concentrations (C_sed 0.45 ± 0.2%, C_sus 0.9 ± 0.7%, N_sed 0.07 ± 0.05% and N_sus 0.16 ± 0.1%) support a predominantly terrigenous source. Significant enrichment in the isotopic ratios of δ¹³C from the upper to lower estuary in both suspended (−27.5 and −24.3‰, respectively) and sedimentary (−26.2 and −24.9‰, respectively) phases indicates a decrease in the influence of terrigeneous material toward the mouth of the estuary. A significant positive relationship exists between the δ¹³C of suspended and sediment, which indicates that these two organic carbon pools are likely coupled in the form of a significant exchange between the two phases. A positive relationship exists between chlorophyll a and suspended organic matter, which may mean that a significant source of organic carbon is the in situ produced phytoplankton. But, applying a simple mixing model to our isotopes, data yielded about 46% as the contribution of the terrestrial source to suspended matter, which may support the excessive heterotrophic activity in the Godavari estuary reported earlier.     

Roles of Continental Shelves and Marginal Seas in the Biogeochemical Cycles of the North Pacific Ocean

Most marginal seas in the North Pacific are fed by nutrients supported mainly by upwelling and many are undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ in the surface water mainly as a result of the biological pump and winter cooling. These seas absorb CO₂ at an average rate of 1.1 ± 0.3 mol C m⁻²yr⁻¹ but release N₂/N₂O at an average rate of 0.07 ± 0.03 mol N m⁻²yr⁻¹. Most of primary production, however, is regenerated on the shelves, and only less than 15% is transported to the open oceans as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (POC) with a small amount of POC deposited in the sediments. It is estimated that seawater in the marginal seas in the North Pacific alone may have taken up 1.6 ± 0.3 Gt (10¹⁵ g) of excess carbon, including 0.21 ± 0.05 Gt for the Bering Sea, 0.18 ± 0.08 Gt for the Okhotsk Sea; 0.31 ± 0.05 Gt for the Japan/East Sea; 0.07 ± 0.02 Gt for the East China and Yellow Seas; 0.80 ± 0.15 Gt for the South China Sea; and 0.015 ± 0.005 Gt for the Gulf of California. More importantly, high latitude marginal seas such as the Bering and Okhotsk Seas may act as conveyer belts in exporting 0.1 ± 0.08 Gt C anthropogenic, excess CO₂ into the North Pacific Intermediate Water per year. The upward migration of calcite and aragonite saturation horizons due to the penetration of excess CO₂ may also make the shelf deposits on the Bering and Okhotsk Seas more susceptible to dissolution, which would then neutralize excess CO₂ in the near future. Further, because most nutrients come from upwelling, increased water consumption on land and damming of major rivers may reduce freshwater output and the buoyancy effect on the shelves. As a result, upwelling, nutrient input and biological productivity may all be reduced in the future. As a final note, the Japan/East Sea has started to show responses to global warming. Warmer surface layer has reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water, resulting in a decline of spring phytoplankton biomass. Less bottom water formation because of less winter cooling may lead to the disappearance of the bottom water as early as 2040. Or else, an anoxic condition may form as early as 2200 AD. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Coupled climate-society modeling of a realistic scenario to achieve a sustainable Earth

A conceptual model was developed to project the global warming for this century. This model incorporated several important factors associated with the climate and society. Under the forcing of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, the climate system is represented by a global mean surface air temperature (SAT) and carbon storage, which is separated into the atmosphere, land and oceans. The SAT rises due to the atmospheric carbon, which is partially absorbed by the terrestrial ecosystem and the ocean. These absorption rates are reduced by the rising SAT. The anthropogenic carbon dioxide is emitted by society, which is described by global energy production (P) and energy efficiency/carbon intensity (E), yielding a rate of P/E. P consists of the energy production per capita (H) and the population (M) in developed countries and regions, P = H × M. These society components were set to grow, based on the historical record from the last 50 years, while societal incentives to reduce the growth rate H and to increase E in proportion to the increase in SAT were introduced. It is shown that, among the basic scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for this century, medium-level carbon emission—where the growth rate of H is reduced by 30% and E is doubled, with 1°C of warming—could be achieved. Until the end of this century, both the terrestrial ecosystem and the oceans act as sinks. If societal incentives are eliminated, carbon emission approaches the upper limit considered in the SRES scenarios, and the terrestrial ecosystem changes into a source of carbon dioxide. Since H and E are closely related to lifestyle and technology, respectively, individuals in the developed countries are urged to change their lifestyles, and institutions need to develop low-carbon technologies and spread them to developing countries. When society achieves medium-level carbon emission for a couple of centuries, oceanic absorption was found to become more crucial than terrestrial absorption, so oceanic behavior has to be estimated more accurately.     

Temporal Evolution of the North Pacific CO2 Uptake Rate

The recent changes in the North Pacific uptake rate of carbon have been estimated using a number of different techniques over the past decade. Recently, there has been a marked increase in the number of estimates being submitted for publication. Most of these estimates can be grouped into one of five basic techniques: carbon time-series, non-carbon tracers, carbon tracers, empirical relationships, and inverse calculations. Examples of each of these techniques as they have been applied in the North Pacific are given and the estimates summarized. The results are divided into three categories: integrated water column uptake rate estimates, mixed layer increases, and surface pCO₂ increases. Most of the published values fall under the water column integrated uptake rate category. All of the estimates varied by region and depth range of integration, but generally showed consistent patterns of increased uptake from the tropics to the subtropics. The most disagreement between the methods was in the sub-arctic Pacific. Column integrated uptake rates ranged from 0.25 to 1.3 mol m⁻²yr⁻¹. The mixed layer uptake estimates were much more consistent, with values of 1.0–1.3 μmol kg⁻¹yr⁻¹ based on direct observations and multiple linear regression approaches. Surface pCO₂ changes showed the most obvious regional variability (0.5–2.5 μatm yr⁻¹) reflecting the sensitivity of these measurements to differences in the physical and biological forcing. The different techniques used to evaluate the changes in North Pacific carbon distributions do not completely agree on the exact magnitude or spatial and temporal patterns of carbon uptake rate. Additional research is necessary to resolve these issues and better constrain the role of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mass balance and sources of mercury in Tokyo Bay

The mass balance and sources of mercury in Tokyo Bay were investigated on the basis of observations from December 2003 to January 2005. Estimated input terms included river discharge (70 kg yr⁻¹) and atmospheric deposition (37 kg yr⁻¹), and output terms were evasion (49 kg yr⁻¹), export (13 kg yr⁻¹) and sedimentation (495 kg yr⁻¹). Thus, the outputs (557 kg yr⁻¹) considerably exceeded the inputs (107 kg yr⁻¹). In addition, the imbalance between the inputs and outputs of mercury was much larger than that of other trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn), which suggests that there are other major inputs of mercury to Tokyo Bay. The mercury concentrations in rivers correlated significantly with the concentrations of Al and Fe, major components of soil. In Japan, large amounts of organomercurous fungicides (about 2500 tons as Hg) were used extensively in fields in the past, and most of the mercury was retained in the soil. In this study, the mercury concentration in rivers was measured primarily in ordinary runoff. These observations lead to the hypothesis that field soil discharged into stormwater runoff is a major source of mercury in Tokyo Bay. As a preliminary approach to validating this hypothesis, we measured the concentrations of mercury and other trace metals in river water during a typhoon. The mercury concentrations in stormwater runoff increased to 16–50 times the mean value in ordinary runoff, which is much higher than the increases for other metals. This tends to support the hypothesis.     

Influence of direct sulfate-aerosol radiative forcing on the results of numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by a block for the direct anthropogenic sulfate-aerosol (SA) radiative forcing. Numerical experiments have been performed with prescribed scenarios of the greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate radiative forcings from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries and from SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 for the 21st century. The globally averaged direct anthropogenic SA radiative forcing F _ASA by the end of the 20th century relative to the preindustrial state is ?0.34 W/m², lying within the uncertainty range of the corresponding present-day estimates. The absolute value of F _ASA is the largest in Europe, North America, and southeastern Asia. A general increase in direct radiative forcing in the numerical experiments that have been performed continues until the mid-21st century. With both the greenhouse and the sulfate loadings included, the global climate warming in the model is 1.5–2.8 K by the end of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century, depending on the scenario, and 2.1–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial period. The sulfate aerosol reduces global warming by 0.1–0.4 K in different periods depending on the scenario. The largest slowdown (>1.5 K) occurs over land at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-21st century for scenario A2. The IAP RAS CM response to the greenhouse and the aerosol forcing is not additive.     

Temporal variations of surface oceanic and atmospheric CO2 fugacity and total dissolved inorganic carbon in the northwestern North Pacific

In order to examine temporal variations of the surface oceanic and atmospheric fCO₂ and the DIC concentration, we analyzed air and seawater samples collected during the period May 1992–June 1996 in the northwestern North Pacific, about 30 km off the coast of the main island of Japan. The atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased secularly at a rate of 1.9 ppmv yr⁻¹, and it showed a clear seasonal cycle with a maximum in spring and a minimum late in summer, produced mainly by seasonally-dependent terrestrial biospheric activities. DIC also showed a prominent seasonal cycle in the surface ocean; the minimum and maximum values of the cycle appeared in early fall and in early spring, respectively, due primarily to the seasonally-dependent activities of marine biota and partly to the vertical mixing of seawater and the coastal upwelling. The oceanic fCO₂ values were almost always lower than those of the atmospheric fCO₂, suggesting that this area of the ocean acts as a sink for atmospheric CO₂. Values varied seasonally, mainly reflecting seasonal changes of SST and DIC, with a secular increase at a rate of 3.7 μatm yr⁻¹. The average values of the annual net CO₂ flux between the ocean and the atmosphere calculated by using the different bulk equations ranged between −0.8 and −1.7 mol m⁻²yr⁻¹, and its magnitude was enhanced and reduced late in spring and mid-summer, respectively, due mainly to the seasonally varying oceanic fCO₂.     

A carbon budget for the Barents Sea

The first carbon budget constructed for the Barents Sea to study the fluxes of carbon into, out of, and within the region is presented. The budget is based on modelled volume flows, measured dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration, and literature values for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations. The results of the budget show that ～5600±660×10⁶ t C yr^?1 is exchanged through the boundaries of the Barents Sea. If a 40% uncertainty in the volume flows is included in the error calculation it resulted in a total uncertainty of ±1600×10⁶ t C yr^?1. The largest part of the total budget flux consists of DIC advection (～95% of the inflow and ～97% of the outflow). The other sources and sinks are, in order of importance, advection of organic carbon (DOC+POC; ～3% of both in- and outflow), total uptake of atmospheric CO₂ (～1% of the inflow), river and land sources (～0.2% of the inflow), and burial of organic carbon in the sediments (～0.2% of the outflow). The Barents Sea is a net exporter of carbon to the Arctic Ocean; the net DIC export is ～2500±660×10⁶ t C yr^?1 of which ～1700±650×10⁶ t C yr^?1 (～70%) is in subsurface water masses and thus sequestered from the atmosphere. The net total organic carbon export to the Arctic Ocean is ～80±20×10⁶ t C yr^?1. Shelf pumping in the Barents Sea results in an uptake of ～22±11×10⁶ t C yr^?1 from the atmosphere which is exported out of the area in the dense modified Atlantic Waters. The main part of this carbon was channelled through export production (～16±10×10⁶ t C yr^?1).     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

Sedimentation rates and heavy metal pollution of sediments in the Seto Inland Sea

Sedimentation rates in ten sediment cores from Hiroshima Bay in the Seto Inland Sea of Japan were determined with the |2210|0Pb technique, and heavy metals were analyzed. The sedimentation rates vary from 0.18 to 0.33 g cm|2-2|0 yr|2-1|0. The highest sedimentation rates were observed in the northern part of the bay at the mouth of Ota River, while lower sedimentation rates not more than 0.20 g cm⁻² yr⁻¹ were observed at stations close to narrow water-ways, or where water depth was shallow. The contents of copper and zinc in the sediment cores began to increase around 1930 as a result of increased human activity, and have remained almost unchanged since 1970 possibly because of regulation of pollutant discharge. The natural background values of copper and zinc in the sediment of this bay range from 16 to 27 mgkg⁻¹ and 70 to 105 mg kg⁻¹, respectively. The total amounts of anthropogenic copper and zinc deposited in the sediments since about 1930 are estimated to be 0.5–2.7 ton km⁻² and 2.2–14.5 ton km⁻², respectively. At the present-day, the anthropogenic loads of copper and zinc to the sediments of the whole bay are 26 ton yr⁻¹ and 183 ton yr⁻¹, and these values constitute 39% and 48% of the total sedimentary loads at the present-day, respectively.     

Predicting shoreline evolution on a centennial scale using the example of the vistula (Baltic) spit

The proposed algorithm comprises three main steps. The first step is the evaluation of the sediment transport and budget. It was shown that the root segment of the Vistula Spit is dominated by eastward longshore sediment transport (up to 50 thousand m³/year). Over the rest of the spit, the shoreline??s orientation causes westward sediment transport (more than 100 thousand m³/year). The gradients of the longshore and cross shore sediment transport become the major contributors to the overall sediment balance. The only exception is the northeastern tip of the spit due to the appreciable imbalance of the sediment budget (13 m³m^?1 yr^?1). The second step in the prediction modeling is the estimation of the potential sea-level changes during the 21st century. The third step involves modeling of the shoreline??s behavior using the SPELT model [6, 7, 8]. In the most likely scenario, the rate of the recession is predicted to be about 0.3 m/year in 2010?C2050 and will increase to 0.4 m/year in 2050?C2100. The sand deficit, other than the sea-level rise, will be a key factor in the control of the shoreline??s evolution at the northeastern tip of the spit, and the amount of recession will range from 160 to 200 m in 2010?C2100.