A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis. In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding 5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future.     

Distribution, origin and transport process of boulders deposited by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape, Thailand

The tsunami of 2004 in the Indian Ocean transported thousands of meters-long boulders shoreward at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. We investigated size, position and long axis orientation of 467 boulders at the cape. Most of boulders found at the cape are well rounded, ellipsoid in shape, without sharp broken edges. They were fragments of reef rocks and their sizes were estimated to be < 14m³ (22.7t). The distribution pattern and orientation of long axis of boulders reflect the inundation pattern and behavior of the tsunami waves. It was found that there is no clear evidence indicating monotonous fine/coarse shoreward trends of these boulders along each transect line. On the other hand, the large boulders were deposited repeatedly along the three arcuate lines at the intertidal zone with a spacing of approximately 136m interval. This distribution pattern may suggest that long-lasting oscillatory flows might have repositioned the boulders and separated the big ones from small. No boulders were found on land, indicating that the hydraulic force of the tsunami wave rapidly dissipated on reaching the land due to the higher bottom friction and the presence of a steep slope. We further conducted numerical calculation of tsunami inundation at Pakarang Cape. According to the calculation, the sea receded and the major part of the tidal bench (area with boulders at present) was exposed above the sea surface before the arrival of the first tsunami wave. The first tsunami wave arrived at the cape from west to east at approximately 130min after the tsunami generation, and then inundated inlands. Our calculation shows that tsunami wave was focused around the offshore by a small cove at the reef edge and spread afterwards in a fan-like shape on the tidal bench. The critical wave velocities necessary to move the largest and average-size boulders by sliding can be estimated to be approximately 3.2 and 2.0m/s, respectively. The numerical result indicates that the maximum current velocity of the first tsunami wave was estimated to be from 8 to 15m/s between the reef edge and approximately 500m further offshore. This range is large enough for moving even the largest boulder shoreward. These suggest that the tsunami waves that were directed eastward, struck the reef rocks and coral colonies, originally located on the shallow sea bottom near the reef edge, and detached and transported the boulders shoreward.     

Expected tsunami amplitudes and currents along the North American coast for Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

Tsunamis are numerically modeled using the nonlinear shallow-water equations for three hypothetical Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitudes and currents are tabulated for 131 sites along the North American coast. Earthquake source parameters are chosen to satisfy known subduction zone configuration and thermal constraints. These source parameters are used as input to compute vertical sea-floor displacement. The three earthquakes modeled are moment magnitude 8.8, 8.5, and 7.8. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitude for theMw = 8.8 earthquake is near 6 m normal to the fault break and maximum current is near 3.5 m/s. Maximum amplitudes decrease by about one-half north and south of the fault break in the source region. Tsunami amplitudes vary along the Alaskan coast from less than 0.5 to 1.6 m. The modeled amplitudes for theMw = 8.8 quake decrease to less than 0.4 m south of Point Conception, CA. TheMw = 7.8 earthquake generates a tsunami with a maximum amplitude of less than 1 m normal to the source. North and south of the fault break the maximum amplitude again decreases by about one-half. In all the models, amplitudes and currents arc less than one-sixth of the outer coast value within Puget Sound.     

Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies.     

Socio-economic implications based on interviews with fishermen following the Indian Ocean tsunami

Following the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean, there was a need to give a voice to the affected population. Hence a survey was conducted in the tsunami-affected regions of India. The tsunami mainly affected the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh and the Union Territory of Pondicherry, all in south India, as well as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India in the Bay of Bengal. For various logistical reasons, no survey was conducted in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The survey was conducted during 21 January to 19 February 2005 and from 1 March to 8 March 2005. A total of eight people, arranged into four teams, simultaneously conducted the survey based upon a prepared questionnaire comprising a total of 16 questions. The total number of villages surveyed was 161, and the overall results of the survey are reported here. Among many observations, capacity building during the construction process, relocation and housing issues and tsunami education and awareness were prominent.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

Socotra Island,Yemen: field survey of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The tsunami of 26th December 2004 severely affected Yemen’s Socotra Island with a death at a distance of 4,600 km from the epicenter of the Magnitude 9.0 earthquake. Yemen allowed a detailed assessment of the far-field impact of a tsunami in the main propagation direction. The UNESCO mission surveyed 12 impacted towns on the north and south shores covering from the east to the west tip of Socotra. The international team members were on the ground in Yemen from 11 to 19 October 2006. The team measured tsunami run-up heights and inundation distances based on the location of watermarks on buildings and eyewitness accounts. Maximum run-up heights were typically on the order of 2–6 m. Each measurement was located by means of global positioning systems (GPS) and photographed. Numerous eyewitness interviews were recorded on video. The tsunami impact on Socotra is compared with other locations along the shores of the Indian Ocean.     

Truncated flame structures within a deposit of the Indian Ocean Tsunami: evidence of syn‐sedimentary deformation

This study reveals the three‐dimensional morphology and syn‐sedimentary formation processes of a deformation structure termed ‘truncated flame structures’ which is found in a terrestrial tsunami deposit in southern Thailand that formed during the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The structure was found at the boundary between a lower fine‐grained layer and an upper coarse‐grained layer that are related to two runup events. In order to confirm the morphology of the structure, the authors excavated two trenches and an opencast pit. When viewed in a cross‐section oriented parallel to the direction of the runup current, the deformed boundary has an irregularly bulging profile, similar to that observed in flame structures. The protruding structures are inclined towards the downstream direction of the runup current, and are truncated horizontally along their upper surface by parallel laminations in the overlying layer. When viewed in a cross‐section oriented perpendicular to the current direction, it appears that parts of the upper layer descend into the lower layer as lobate masses. In places, these masses are completely detached from the main part of the upper layer, forming circular or elliptical shapes. The contact between the lower layer and the main part of the upper layer is a planar truncation surface. Opencast excavation of the contact surface revealed that the deformed structures have flat, sinuous horseshoe crests that open in a downstream direction. It is possible for the runup current to generate shear stress such that it deforms the boundary into a truncated flame structure. Moreover, the observations made in this study indicate the syn‐sedimentary development of the structure: deformation and truncation occurred simultaneously in association with the runup current that formed the upper layer. Truncated flame structures can be used as a criterion in identifying the syn‐sedimentary deformation of substrate: the structures are indicative of unidirectional flow with sufficiently high shear velocity to deform unconsolidated substrate. As in the present case, the truncated flame structures may be characteristic of tsunami events that involve strong unidirectional currents on land due to the extraordinarily long wave period of tsunamis, rather than other events such as storm surges or flooding.