Grand Minima of Solar Activity and the Mean-Field Dynamo

We demonstrate that a simple solar dynamo model, in the form of a Parker migratory dynamo with random fluctuations of the dynamo governing parameters and algebraic saturation of dynamo action, can at least qualitatively reproduce all the basic features of solar Grand Minima as they are known from direct and indirect data. In particular, the model successfully reproduces such features as an abrupt transition into a Grand Minimum and the subsequent gradual recovery of solar activity, as well as mixed-parity butterfly diagrams during the epoch of the Grand Minimum. The model predicts that the cycle survives in some form during a Grand Minimum, as well as the relative stability of the cycle inside and outside of a Grand Minimum. The long-term statistics of simulated Grand Minima appears compatible with the phenomenology of the Grand Minima inferred from the cosmogenic isotope data. We demonstrate that such ability to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology is not a general feature of the dynamo models but requires some specific assumption, such as random fluctuations in dynamo governing parameters. In general, we conclude that a relatively simple and straightforward model is able to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology remarkably well, in principle providing us with a possibility of studying the physical nature of Grand Minima.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

Solar Grand Minima and Random Fluctuations in?Dynamo Parameters

We consider to what extent the long-term dynamics of cyclic solar activity in the form of Grand Minima can be associated with random fluctuations of the parameters governing the solar dynamo. We consider fluctuations of the alpha coefficient in the conventional Parker migratory dynamo, and also in slightly more sophisticated dynamo models, and demonstrate that they can mimic the gross features of the phenomenon of the occurrence of Grand Minima over suitable parameter ranges. The temporal distribution of these Grand Minima appears chaotic, with a more or less exponential waiting time distribution, typical of Poisson processes. In contrast, however, the available reconstruction of Grand Minima statistics based on cosmogenic isotope data demonstrates substantial deviations from this exponential law. We were unable to reproduce the non-Poissonic tail of the waiting time distribution either in the framework of a simple alpha-quenched Parker model or in its straightforward generalization, nor in simple models with feedback on the differential rotation. We suggest that the disagreement may only be apparent and is plausibly related to the limited observational data, and that the observations and results of numerical modeling can be consistent and represent physically similar dynamo regimes.     

Presence of LaO, ScO and VO Molecular Lines in Sunspot Umbral Spectra

High-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer sunspot umbral spectra of the National Solar Observatory/National Optical Astronomy Observatory at Kitt Peak were used to detect rotational lines from 19 electronic transition bands of the molecules LaO, ScO and VO, in the wavenumber range of 11 775 to 20 600 cm⁻¹. The presence of lines from the following transitions is confirmed: A ² Π _r1/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0; 0, 1), A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(1, 0), B ² Σ ⁺ – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0; 0, 1; 1, 0) and C ² Π _r1/2 – A′²Δ _r3/2(0, 0; 1, 1) of LaO; A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0), A ² Π _r1/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) and B ² Σ ⁺ – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) of ScO; and C ⁴ Σ ⁻ – X ⁴ Σ ⁻(0, 1; 1, 0; 0, 2) and (2, 0) of VO. However, the presence of A ² Π _r3/2 – X ² Σ ⁺(0, 0) and C ² Π _r3/2 – A′²Δ _r5/2(0, 0; 1, 1) of LaO and C ⁴ Σ ⁻ – X ⁴ Σ ⁻(0, 0) of VO are found to be doubtful because the lines are very weak, and detections are difficult owing to heavy blending by strong rotational lines of other molecules. Equivalent widths are measured for well-resolved lines and, thereby, the effective rotational temperatures are estimated for the systems for which the presence is confirmed.     

Identification of CrH and CrD Molecular Lines in the Sunspot Umbral Spectrum

High-resolution Fourier transform spectrometer sunspot umbral spectra obtained at the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak were used to identify molecular rotational lines arising from the infrared band systems of CrH and CrD molecules. Measurement of the equivalent width used the Gaussian-profile approximation method, which is suitable especially for faint lines. Equivalent widths are measured for an adequate number of best lines of the A – X (0,0) band of CrH and the A – X (0,0;1,0) bands of CrD and, thereby, the effective rotational temperatures are estimated.     

Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24

Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).     

An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares of Solar Cycle 23

Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible.     

Occurrence of bidirectional type III bursts in solar flares

The 13 pairs of type III bursts with the bidirectional drift structures recorded with the spectrograph in the frequency ranges of 230–300 MHz and 625–1500 MHz at the Yunnan Observatory and 2600–3800 MHz at the Beijing National Astronomical Observatories are analyzed in this present article and the outstanding characteristics of these events are obtained. These bursts respectively reveal that the separatrix frequency between the bursts with positive and negative drifts comes between 250 MHz and 3420 MHz, with a gap being between 0.6 MHz and 110 MHz; the duration is 53 ms–1880 ms and the frequency drift rate is between 45 MHz/s and 56000 MHz/s. The drift rate at metric wavelengths is relatively low, only a few decades of MHz while it is comparatively high at microwave wavelengths, reaching 56000 MHz/s. The qualitative explanation of these events is given in this paper.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

Imaging Spectropolarimetry of Ti I 2231 nm in a Sunspot

Spectro-polarimetric observations at 2231 nm were made of NOAA 10008 near the west solar limb on 29 June 2002 using the National Solar Observatory McMath–Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak and the California State University Northridge – National Solar Observatory infrared camera. Scans of spectra in both Stokes I and Stokes V were collected; the intensity spectra were processed to remove strong telluric absorption lines, and the Stokes V umbral spectra were corrected for instrumental polarization. The sunspot temperature is computed using the continuum contrast and umbral temperatures down to about 3700 K are observed. A strong Tii line at 2231.0 nm is used to probe the magnetic and velocity fields in the spot umbra and penumbra. Measurements of the Tii equivalent width versus plasma temperature in the sunspot agree with model predictions. Zeeman splitting measurements of the Stokes I and Stokes V profiles show magnetic fields up to 3300 G in the umbra, and a dependence of the magnetic field on the plasma temperature similar to that which was seen using Fei 1565 nm observations of the same spot two days earlier. The umbral Doppler velocity measurements are averaged in 16 azimuthal bins, and no radial flows are revealed to a limit of ±200 m s^–1. A Stokes V magnetogram shows a reversal of the line-of-sight magnetic component between the limb and disk center sides of the penumbra. Because the Tii line is weak in the penumbra, individual spectra are averaged in azimuthal bins over the entire penumbral radial extent. The averaged Stokes V spectra show a magnetic reversal as a function of sunspot azimuthal angle. The mean penumbral magnetic field as measured with the Stokes V Zeeman component splitting is 1400 G. Several weak spectral lines are observed in the sunspot and the variation of the equivalent width versus temperature for four lines is examined. If these lines are from molecules, it is possible that lines at 2230.67, 2230.77, and 2231.70 nm originate from OH, while the line at 2232.21 nm may originate from CN.     

Digitization of Sunspot Drawings by Staudacher in 1749 – 1796

Original drawings by J.C. Staudacher made in the period of 1749 – 1796 were digitized. The drawings provide information about the size of the sunspots and are therefore useful for analyses sensitive to sunspot area rather than Wolf numbers. The total sunspot area as a function of time is shown for the observing period. The sunspot areas measured do not support the proposition of a weak, “lost” cycle between cycles 4 and 5. We also evaluate the usefulness of the drawings for the determination of sunspot positions for future studies.     

Evolution of the Level of Sunspot Activity in Solar Cycles I. Evolution in the Descending Phase

Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number, Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, D_i, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show (1) for 46 months (94%) of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri-D_i plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level α= 5%, and for 36 months (73%) the fitting is even better, for α= 1%;(2) time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; (3) the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log R_i=0.704 In D_i-0.291.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activities During the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30 November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35 days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240 days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of 150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys. 438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations.     

Erratum to: Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram

Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.     

Periodicity and Hemispheric Phase Relationship in High-Latitude Solar Activity

The counts of the monthly averaged polar faculae, from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), are examined by using linear and nonlinear approaches to find the periodicity characteristics of the polar faculae in the northern and southern hemispheres and the phase relationship between them. Both the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) indicate the prominent period with 95% confidence level, namely the Schwabe cycle of about 11 years. The Schwabe cycle is in phase in the two hemispheres. Within the 11-year frequency band, there is a small phase difference during the period of 1966 – 1975 when the activity of polar faculae in the northern hemisphere slightly leads the one in the southern hemisphere. A cross-recurrence plot analysis and the line of synchronization (LOS) extracted from the cross-recurrence plot show further the phase difference between the two hemispheres. The LOS deviates significantly from the main diagonal during the period of 1965 – 1970 and LOS >0, showing that the activity of polar faculae in the northern hemisphere leads in phase, which is in accordance with XWT and WTC analyses. Moreover, asynchronization is highest (about 30 months) during this period.     

Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.     

Latitude Dependence of the Variations of Sunspot Group Numbers (SGN) and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in Cycle 23

The 12-month running means of the conventional sunspot number Rz, the sunspot group numbers (SGN) and the frequency of occurrence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were examined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). For the whole disc, the SGN and Rz plots were almost identical. Hence, SGN could be used as a proxy for Rz, for which latitude data are not available. SGN values were used for 5° latitude belts 0° – 5°, 5° – 10°, 10° – 15°, 15° – 20°, 20° – 25°, 25° – 30° and > 30°, separately in each hemisphere north and south. Roughly, from latitudes 25° – 30° N to 20° – 25° N, the peaks seem to have occurred later for lower latitudes, from latitudes 20° – 25° N to 15° – 20° N, the peaks are stagnant or occur slightly earlier, and then from latitudes 15° – 20° N to 0° – 5° N, the peaks seem to have occurred again later for lower latitudes. Thus, some latitudinal migration is suggested, clearly in the northern hemisphere, not very clearly in the southern hemisphere, first to the equator in 1998, stagnant or slightly poleward in 1999, and then to the equator again from 2000 onwards, the latter reminiscent of the Maunder butterfly diagrams. Similar plots for CME occurrence frequency also showed multiple peaks (two or three) in almost all latitude belts, but the peaks were almost simultaneous at all latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. For similar latitude belts, SGN and CME plots were dissimilar in almost all latitude belts except 10° – 20° S. The CME plots had in general more peaks than the SGN plots, and the peaks of SGN often did not match with those of CME. In the CME data, it was noticed that whereas the values declined from 2002 to 2003, there was no further decline during 2003 – 2006 as one would have expected to occur during the declining phase of sunspots, where 2007 is almost a year of sunspot minimum. An inquiry at GSFC-NASA revealed that the person who creates the preliminary list was changed in 2004 and the new person picks out more weak CMEs. Thus a subjectivity (overestimates after 2002) seems to be involved and hence, values obtained before and during 2002 are not directly comparable to values recorded after 2002, except for CMEs with widths exceeding 60°.     

Brightness of the Coronal Green Line and Prediction for Activity Cycles 23 and 24

Cyclic variations of the mean semi-annual intensities I of the coronal green line 530.3 nm are compared with the mean semi-annual variations of the Wolf numbers W during the period of 1943–1999 (activity cycles 18–23). The values of I in the equatorial zone proved to correlate much better with the Wolf numbers in a following cycle than in a given one (the correlation coefficient r is 0.86 and 0.755, respectively). Such increase of the correlation coefficient with a shift by one cycle differs in different phases of the cycle, being the largest at the ascending branch. The regularities revealed make it possible to predict the behaviour of W in the following cycle on the basis of intensities of the coronal green line in the preceding cycle. We predict the maximum semi-annual W in cycle 23 to be 110–122 and the epoch of minimum between cycles 23 and 24 to take place at 2006–2007. A slow increase of I in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number cycle 24 with the maximum W50 at 2010–2011. A scheme is proposed on the permanent transformation of the coronal magnetic fields of different scales explaining the found phenomenon.     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.