Seismicity in the generalized vicinity of large earthquakes

Earthquake catalogs are used to construct a generalized space-time vicinity of large earthquakes and to investigate the seismicity behavior in such areas. We investigate the character of the inverse cascade (seismicity rate increasing toward the time of the main shock) and of the aftershocks, as well as the lower seismicity increase relevant to the larger vicinity of the main shock. It is shown that the inverse and aftershock cascades are accompanied by several anomalies indicating the development of a precursory strength decrease in this space-time volume; this consists in decreased apparent stresses, an increased relative contribution of low frequency oscillations into the earthquake spectrum, and an increased correlation (homogeneity) of stress and strain. We emphasize the special significance of anomalies that also characterize the physical nature of the ongoing process, in addition to the existence of a strength decrease. An example of such an anomaly is provided     

Seismicity in the vicinity of Ross Island, Antarctica

Earthquakes in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, are of two types: volcanic, and those which appear to be of tectonic origin. Volcanic events in the vicinity of Ross Island are associated exclusively with Mount Erebus, Ross Island; this volcano erupts regularly, generating several earthquakes per day whose characteristics are quite distinct from non-volcanic events. These nonvolcanic earthquakes are recognizable by their distinct P- and S-wave arrivals, and a lack of the high frequency, often monochromatic character typical of Erebus events.One hundred fifty-seven tectonic microearthquakes (M < 2.0) were recorded in 1983 and 1984 by the ten station network on Ross Island; these events were located using the least-squares routine, HYPOELLIPSE. Of these events, 106 have RMS residual traveltime errors of less than or equal to 0.6 seconds; they are clustered in the vicinity of Ross Island, but are not restricted to it. There is a linear trend of epicenters cutting across the island and continuing northward. Most activity seems to center beneath Mount Terra Nova, between Mount Erebus and Mount Terror. Mean depth for events is 8.2 km; however, depths are rather evenly distributed over a range of 0 to 25 km.Modelling based on Bouger gravity anomalies and seismic refraction studies indicates a depth to the Moho of about 40 km beneath the continent, shallowing to 27 km beneath the Ross Sea. This 27 km depth is approximately equal to the lower limit of the tectonic seismicity detected by the Erebus network; hence, events are of crustal origin. These data suggest, with the rift-type geochemistry of Erebus' magma, that the Ross Sea is a site of active crustal extension and rifting.     

Seismicity and stress state in the South China Sea, Indochina and their vicinity

The distribution of earthquakes from 1973 to 1982 in the South China Sea, Indochina and their vicinity was studied using the data from I. S. C. It was found that the earthquakes are mainly concentrated along the boundaries of plates. Beside, some of shallow eartqhuakes are distributed in west part of Burma and the boundary between Burma and China, a few of earthquakes occurred in South China Sea. The features of Benioff zone along the boundaries between India plate, Philippine Sea plate and Eurasia plate were studied. The plate do not coupled well under the Java trench and the Philippine trench. The subducted India plate under Burmese range, Andaman—Nicobar arc moves NNE. The fault plane solutions of earthquakes were studied using the first motions of P wave. The stress state on subduction zones and within the area were deduced from the fault plane solutions and the fault movement. It was found that the direction of principal compression axis of stress is in the NNE in west part of Burma, in S—N in south and middle part of Bruma and Thailand, and in NNE or S—N in the South China Sea. It was also found that the stress state has close relation with the interaction of plates. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 129–137, 1991.     

Seismicity,earthquake mechanisms and tectonics along the Himalayan mountain range and vicinity

The historical as well as recent seismicity data and the focal mechanism solutions for 48 earthquakes determined from the observations of world-wide standardized stations network (WWSSN) records, were used to investigate the tectonics of the Himalayan mountain system and vicinity. Seismicity maps of the region showing large earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 and above, and damaging earthquakes that caused fatalities) from the earliest time through 1976, and instrumentally located earthquakes for the period January 1963–March 1974 are presented. Eleven of these earthquakes are estimated to be of magnitude 8.0 and above. The earthquake epicenters generally follow the trend of the mountains with greatest concentrations of seismic activity occurring along the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges, and near the Quetta, Kashmir and Assam syntaxes. Throughout Tibet, however, the distribution of epicenters is rather irregular and no clear trends are apparent. Two aseismic lineaments, one west of the Sulaiman Range and the other in the Assam Valley, are identified. Also, seismic activity in the vicinity of the Counter Thrust (Indus-Tsangpo suture zone) is rather small. Based on the identification of these aseismic lineaments and from a consideration of the geometry and kinematics of the continental collision model, a hypothesis for the origin of the Himalayan syntaxes is presented.Focal mechanism solutions confirm northward underthrusting of the Indian Plate along the Main Boundary Thrust and Main Central Thrust system, and eastward underthrusting along the Burmese Arc. Fault-plane solutions indicate left-lateral motion along the Kirthar-Sulaiman Range, right-lateral motion along the Karakoram Fault, left-lateral motion along the eastern extremity of the Himalayan flank of the Assam syntaxis, and right-lateral motion along the northern part of the Naga Hill flank of the syntaxis. These observations are in agreement with the expected sense of lateral (parallel to the collision boundary) mass movement for the continental collision model. Focal mechanism solutions for three earthquakes in east Afghanistan show NW-SE compression. A near-vertical orientation of the axes of tension in the solutions for two earthquakes in the Hindu Kush region is consistent with the sinking of a remnant slab of oceanic lithospere. Normal fault-plane solutions showing NW-SE extension for two events near Gatok, Tibet, and for the recent Kinnaur earthquake are interpreted to indicate a possible subsurface northern continuation of the Aravalli Range of Peninsular India, and its involvement in the tectonic framework of the region. Focal mechanism solutions of three earthquakes near the southern edge of the Shillong Plateau suggest block uplift of the plateau as a horst along the Dauki Fault. The solution for one earthquake near the Yunnan Graben shows NE-SW extension.     

Rapid late Miocene rise of the Bolivian Altiplano: Evidence for removal of mantle lithosphere

The oxygen isotopic compositions of carbonates deposited in the northern Altiplano demonstrate a rapid change in late Miocene time, which we attribute to an increase in elevation. Rainfall samples over an elevation transect adjacent to the Altiplano of northern Bolivia display a systematic decrease in mean annual δ¹⁸O values and define a local δ¹⁸O vs. altitude gradient [R. Gonfiantini, M.-A. Roche, J.-C. Olivry, J.-C. Fontes, G.M. Zuppi, The altitude effect on the isotopic composition of tropical rains, Chem. Geol. 181 (2001) 147-167.], which we apply to paleo-meteoric water values determined from carbonates. Age constraints from magnetostragraphy and paleoelevation estimates suggest surface uplift of ∼2.5 to 3.5 km occurred between ∼10.3 Ma and 6.8 ± 0.4 Ma, when the Altiplano rose to its current elevation. Only the removal of dense eclogitic lower crust and mantle lithosphere can generate a change of this magnitude and rapidity. This change coincides with an ∼30% decrease in the rate of convergence between the South America and Nazca plates and the propagation of deformation into the eastern Subandean zone, which we infer to have resulted from the increase in the force per unit length applied by the elevated Andean plateau to the surrounding lowlands.     

Evidence for induced seismicity in the vicinity of Fierza reservoir,Northern Albania

The reservoir of Fierza on the Drini River, Northern Albania, is Albania's largest reservoir and it is one of the world's largest reservoirs of high dams (reservoir volume at maximum water level, 2.8 * 10⁹ m³; dam height, 167 m and dam capacity 8 * 10⁶ m³). We compare pre-and postimpounding seismicity of the area surrounding the Fierza reservoir. An increase of seismic microactivity was observed after the impounding of the reservoir. More than 300 microearthquakes, occurred in the immediate vicinity of the main body of the reservoir, with local magnitude ranging between 1.3 and 3.6. A significant change of theb value in the magnitude-frequency relationship was observed. One swarm of microtremors occurred in the northern part of the reservoir on April 4–5, 1981, where an alteration of the tensor of natural tectonic stresses is revealed. The theoretical additional stress and displacement induced by water-load in the bank of the reservoir were estimated for four cross-profiles of the reservoir area and the maximum values resulted near the location of the above swarm.     

地幔上涌对鄂尔多斯西缘岩石圈的改造:来自远震多尺度层析成像的证据

本文利用喜马拉雅二期科学探测台阵的678个地震台站及26个固定台站记录到的9,641个地震共约160000条远震P波走时数据,采用基于稀疏约束的多尺度层析成像方法,获得了鄂尔多斯西缘及邻区上地幔800 km深度范围内P波速度结构.结果显示,在东经104°附近阿拉善地块与鄂尔多斯盆地间存在岩石圈深度的构造边界,这表明阿拉善地块与鄂尔多斯可能分别从属于不同的大地构造单元.以北纬38°线为界,鄂尔多斯地块西缘在岩石圈范围内南北存在明显的速度差异,鄂尔多斯南部上地幔200~300 km深度范围显示为高速异常,而鄂尔多斯北部上地幔显示大面积的低速异常.这一现象表明,鄂尔多斯地块南北两部分经历了不同的构造演化过程.根据本文的结果可以进一步推断,由于青藏高原、阿拉善地块向东北方向推挤以及岩石圈的拆离引起的上地幔扰动导致了地幔上涌,上涌的热物质改造了鄂尔多斯西北缘地区的岩石圈,并使该区的岩石圈减薄.地幔上涌也可能是东经104°边界带和北纬38°构造带形成的深部动力学因素.

     

Seismicity and fluid geochemistry at Lassen Volcanic National Park,California: Evidence for two circulation cells in the hydrothermal system

Seismic analysis and geochemical interpretations provide evidence that two separate hydrothermal cells circulate within the greater Lassen hydrothermal system. One cell originates south to SW of Lassen Peak and within the Brokeoff Volcano depression where it forms a reservoir of hot fluid (235–270 °C) that boils to feed steam to the high-temperature fumarolic areas, and has a plume of degassed reservoir liquid that flows southward to emerge at Growler and Morgan Hot Springs. The second cell originates SSE to SE of Lassen Peak and flows southeastward along inferred faults of the Walker Lane belt (WLB) where it forms a reservoir of hot fluid (220–240 °C) that boils beneath Devils Kitchen and Boiling Springs Lake, and has an outflow plume of degassed liquid that boils again beneath Terminal Geyser. Three distinct seismogenic zones (identified as the West, Middle, and East seismic clusters) occur at shallow depths (< 6 km) in Lassen Volcanic National Park, SW to SSE of Lassen Peak and adjacent to areas of high-temperature (≤ 161 °C) fumarolic activity (Sulphur Works, Pilot Pinnacle, Little Hot Springs Valley, and Bumpass Hell) and an area of cold, weak gas emissions (Cold Boiling Lake). The three zones are located within the inferred Rockland caldera in response to interactions between deeply circulating meteoric water and hot brittle rock that overlies residual magma associated with the Lassen Volcanic Center. Earthquake focal mechanisms and stress inversions indicate primarily N–S oriented normal faulting and E–W extension, with some oblique faulting and right lateral shear in the East cluster. The different focal mechanisms as well as spatial and temporal earthquake patterns for the East cluster indicate a greater influence by regional tectonics and inferred faults within the WLB. A fourth, deeper (5–10 km) seismogenic zone (the Devils Kitchen seismic cluster) occurs SE of the East cluster and trends NNW from Sifford Mountain toward the Devils Kitchen thermal area where fumarolic temperatures are ≤ 123 °C. Lassen fumaroles discharge geothermal gases that indicate mixing between a N₂-rich, arc-type component and gases derived from air-saturated meteoric recharge water. Most gases have relatively weak isotopic indicators of upper mantle or volcanic components, except for gas from Sulphur Works where δ¹³C–CO₂, δ³⁴S–H₂S, and δ¹⁵N–N₂ values indicate a contribution from the mantle and a subducted sediment source in an arc volcanic setting.     

Approximate solutions for the formation of the lithosphere

The lithosphere is interpreted as a thermal boundary layer. Approximate solutions of the boundary layer cooling problem are developed which include mantle radioactivity, partial melt in the asthenosphere, a temperature gradient in the asthenosphere, and a non-zero lithospheric thickness at the ridge crests. The cooling history of oceanic lithosphere is found to be remarkably insensitive to assumptions about the amount of radioactivity in the upper mantle and the extent of melting in the asthenosphere. Determinations of the thickness of oceanic lithosphere and the depths of oceans as a function of age are in excellent agreement with boundary layer predictions which include a heat flux from the asthenosphere. However, the determinations do not resolve how much of the total asthenospheric heat flux might be caused by a temperature gradient in the asthenosphere. Simple thermal arguments indicate that the initial lithospheric thickness, L₀, at ridge crests should depend on the local half-spreading rate, V, as L₀ = 3 km/V(cm/year).     

Geodetic evidence for rifting in Afar a brittle-elastic model of the behaviour of the lithosphere

An important episode of rifting occurred in November 1978 in southwest Afar, in the first subaerial section of the accreting plate boundary between the African and Arabian plates. Horizontal rifting of more than 2 m took place, with vertical displacements of about 1 m, earthquakes of magnitude up to 5.3, and a fissural volcanic eruption of basaltic lavas. Very precise geodetic measurements were carried out in order to study this crisis and strains of the order of 3 × 10^?4 were measured, both tensile and compressive.This paper presents an analysis of the mechanical behaviour of the lithosphere. It is shown that an elastic-brittle model with a rebound mechanism fits very well the data, and it is suggested that such a model, with magma injection in the resulting open fissures, should be used to describe accretion at plate boundaries.     

Seismicity of the Sinai subplate region:kinematicimplications

The seismic activity of the Sinai subplate region on the basis of both historical (2200B.C.–1900 A.D.) and recent (1900–1995) earthquake catalogs have been evaluated.Moderateand large earthquakes occurred mainly at the subplate boundaries, Dead Sea Fault (DSF) systemin the east, Cyprean arc in the north, and Suez rift in the southwest.Along the Dead Sea Fault system the activity concentrated at the southern andcentralsegments. The earthquake distribution appears to have a tendency to cluster in time andspace.The swarms (February, 1983; April, 1990; August, 1993 and November, 1995) in the GulfofAqaba indicate that the southern segment of the Dead Sea Fault system is the mostseismogenicthrough the last two decades. North of the Dead Sea depression the seismic activitytends to haveoccurred with NW trend to extend under the Levantine Sea. Although the northernsegment ofthe Dead Sea Fault system is well defined from geological, geophysical and historicalearthquakeactivity recent seismic activity is practically absent especially north of Latitude 34°N.In the eastern Mediterranean the seismicity is much higher in the area of the Hellenicarcthan in the Cyprean arc. Moreover, the activity occurs in a wide belt suggesting that theplateboundary is a deformation zone instead of a single line.The seismic activity in the Gulf of Suez is scattered and does not have any distincttrend.However, three active zones are delineated. At the mouth of the gulf most of activityisconcentrated where the Sinai triple junction (Africa, Arabia, Sinai) is situated. The centralpartand the northern part of the gulf include the adjacent area as far as the river Nile. Actually,theactivity is markedly decreased from south to north.Although there is no seismological evidence that the Suez rift continues into theeasternMediterranean, the activity in the Gulf of Suez region cannot be ignored.The parameters of magnitude-frequency relation (a, b) indicate thatthelevel of earthquake activity in the Sinai subplate region is generally moderate. Moreover,theenergy release curve shows a regular trend and reflects occasional high activity. © 1999ElsevierScience Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Buckling of a pervasively faulted lithosphere

We investigated the buckling response of a faulted elastic plate under horizontal compression using the finite element technique to better understand the effect of faults on the elastic behavior of a plate. We studied the effect of changes in fault spacing, depth and dip on the effective Young's modulus, buckling stress and wavelength. Our model consists of a thick elastic plate whose entire upper surface is cut by evenly spaced faults. We impose either an initial sinusoidal deformation with a fixed wavelength or a random deformation to the grid. A fault is represented as a free surface with no resolved shear stress and is allowed to slip in a specified direction using the method of slippery nodes. With the assumption of free slip on the faults, our model results represent an end member case in which the buckling wavelength and buckling stress are minimized by the presence of the faults.In our models, fault depth was varied from 0 to 75% of the plate thickness. As strain increases, the grid deforms by antisymmetric flexural folding and the initial imposed wavelength of deformation is modified such that the new buckling wavelength emerges. Our results show that the effective Young's modulus is a decreasing function of fault depth and an increasing function of fault spacing. In addition, buckling of the plate occurs at a lower stress for greater fault depths. Buckling wavelength is independent of the initial deformation wavelength however, it is modified by the presence of faults. For a plate with closely spaced faults extending through at least 75% of the plate, buckling occurs at a wavelength one half as large as that for a continuous plate. Buckling stress is not independent of the intial deformation wavelength, rather it increases slightly with increasing difference between the initial deformation wavelength and the buckling wavelength.Analytical models that approximate or ignore the effect of faulting can have large errors in calculation of the buckling stress. More importantly, modeling the observed wavelength of deformation in a faulted region with analytical solutions for continuous plates may result in a significant underestimate of elastic thickness. Fault dip does not strongly affect either the effective Young's modulus or the buckling wavelength. Thus, the buckling response should be the same for a plate cut by a low angle fault or a high angle fault.     

Dunitification of mantle lithosphere below the society archipelago: Evidence for magma-mantle thermal and chemical transfers through xenoliths from the Papenoo Valley, Tahiti

Chemical and thermal transfers between mantle lithosphere and O.I.B. from French Polynesia are described in an inclusion suite from the Papenoo Valley, Tahiti. The methods used consider chemical exchange kinetics in geothermometry and olivine deformation study. The mineralogical study shows the extent of the chemical and thermal exchanges between a lithosphere equilibrated at 1000–1050°C and plume basalts whose liquidus temperature is about 1250°C. The dunitification process along with the spinel and olivine “fertilization” is revealed in samples which preserved features of their former mantle deformation. The deformation study also shows that interaction took place within the mantle itself. The whole of the results implies a significant metasomatism of the mantle lithosphere and alteration of the initial geochemical signature of the deep originating O.I.B. beneath French Polynesia.     

Theoretical wiese induction vectors for a three-dimensional prism in the vicinity of a vertical contact

Summary With the use of the method of boundary integral equations, a stationary approximation of the magnetotelluric field for a three-dimensional prism located in the vicinity of a vertical contact of two quarterspaces, whereby the applied electric field is oriented parallel with the vertical boundary, is solved. In combination with the solution for the perpendicular orientation of the exciting electric field, the theoretical Wiese induction vectors for three positions of the 3-D prism are calculated. It was shown that the centre of divergence of the Wiese vectors is displaced from the epicentre of the prism, namely, if the prism is close to the vertical boundary.

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A Review of the Seismicity in 2000

1. A SURVEY OF THE GLOBAL SEISMICITYAccording to the recording of the seismic network of China, 20 large earthquakes with Ms ≥7.0 occurred in 2000 (Table 1 ), the maximum magnitude of which is 7.8, they are: three Ms = 7.8 earthquakes on June 5 in the south of the Sumatra Island, Indonesia, on June 18 in India Ocean and on November 16 in Solomon Islands (Fig. 1). 　　……     

中国地震活动性述评

对与我国地震活动性有关的地震资料、地震的地理分布、震源深度分布、地震的时间进程等方面的研究情况,进行了简要评述;并对研究工作需要注意的问题,以及台湾地震的成因。表明了观点。     

Forecasting Ability of a Multi-Renewal Seismicity Model

The inter-event time (IET) is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently, a specific IET model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic prediction of \( M \ge 5.5 \) events in Italy (http://earthquake.bo.ingv.it). In this study we analyze some aspects of the statistical estimation of the model and its predictive ability. We find that more or less effective prediction is possible within four out of 34 seismotectonic zones where seismicity rate or clustering of events is relatively high. We show that, in the framework of the model, one can suggest a simple zone-independent strategy, which practically optimizes the relative number of non-accidental successes, or the Hanssen-Kuiper (HK) skill score. This quasi-optimal strategy declares alarm in a zone for the first 2.67 years just after the occurrence of each large event in the zone. The optimal HK skill score values are about 26 % for the three most active zones, and 2–10 % for the 26 least active zones. However, the number of false alarm time intervals per one event in each of the zones is unusually high: about 0.7 and 0.8–0.95, respectively. Both these theoretical estimations are important because any prospective testing of the model is unrealistic in most of the zones during a reasonable time. This particular analysis requires a discussion of the following issues of general interest: a specific approach to the analysis of predictions vs. the standard CSEP testing approach; prediction vs. forecasting; HK skill score vs. probability gain; the total forecast error diagram and connected false alarms.     

1998年全球地震活动综述

１９９８年第四季度,全球共发生６级以上地震１１次,其中１１月２９日塞兰海地震为７．７级,地震频度低而强度高。１９９６￣１９９８年,全球地震活动呈逐年下降趋势。１９９８年全年共发生６级以上地震（包括深震）７８次,其中有２次７．７级以上大地震。本年度６级以上浅源地震频数继续减少,全年只有６４次。１９９６￣、９９８年,Ⅰ带和Ⅱ带地震活动逐年减弱;亚欧带有起伏,１９９７年最高,１９９８年回落。中国大陆地震