The 2005 eruption of Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano,El Salvador

We report the stratigraphic sequence of the 2005 eruption of Ilamatepec volcano together with sedimentological and chemical analyses of its products.Structural and textural characteristics of the deposits indicate that the eruption was driven by a small-volume rhyolitic intrusion at shallow levels, which resulted first in the collapse of the existing hydrothermally altered fan of previous deposits inside the crater lake, driving phreatic explosions with launching of blocks on ballistic trajectories; later the magma interacted with lake waters producing several hydromagmatic pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These flows were energetic enough to knock down pine trees up to distances of 1.8 km from the crater in the E-NE sector of the volcano. Finally, ejection of ballistic blocks that landed on previously emplaced, wet pyroclastic density current deposits, caused the generation of a lahar that flowed down the steep eastern flank toward the El Jabillal gully. Subsequent lahars occurred as a result of intense rain caused by hurricane Stan.Radiocarbon ages on paleosols and charcoal fragments, separating previous volcanogenic sequences, indicate that similar eruptions have occurred more frequently in the past centuries, than previously thought.The new data confirms that Ilamatepec volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in El Salvador. Nevertheless, more detailed studies of the eruptive sequence of Ilamatepec volcano are mandatory to establish future eruptive patterns.     

Stratigraphic framework of Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, Akutan Volcano, east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

 Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat. A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity. Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999     

Snow and ice perturbation during historical volcanic eruptions and the formation of lahars and floods

Historical eruptions have produced lahars and floods by perturbing snow and ice at more than 40 volcanoes worldwide. Most of these volcanoes are located at latitudes higher than 35°; those at lower latitudes reach altitudes generally above 4000 m. Volcanic events can perturb mantles of snow and ice in at least five ways: (1) scouring and melting by flowing pyroclastic debris or blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, (2) surficial melting by lava flows, (3) basal melting of glacial ice or snow by subglacial eruptions or geothermal activity, (4) ejection of water by eruptions through a crater lake, and (5) deposition of tephra fall. Historical records of volcanic eruptions at snow-clad volcanoes show the following: (1) Flowing pyroclastic debris (pyroclastic flows and surges) and blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris are the most common volcanic events that generate lahars and floods; (2) Surficial lava flows generally cannot melt snow and ice rapidly enough to form large lahars or floods; (3) Heating the base of a glacier or snowpack by subglacial eruptions or by geothermal activity can induce basal melting that may result in ponding of water and lead to sudden outpourings of water or sediment-rich debris flows; (4) Tephra falls usually alter ablation rates of snow and ice but generally produce little meltwater that results in the formation of lahars and floods; (5) Lahars and floods generated by flowing pyroclastic debris, blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, or basal melting of snow and ice commonly have volumes that exceed 10⁵ m³.The glowing lava (pyroclastic flow) which flowed with force over ravines and ridges...gathered in the basin quickly and then forced downwards. As a result, tremendously wide and deep pathways in the ice and snow were made and produced great streams of water (Wolf 1878).     

Syn- and posteruptive hazards of maar–diatreme volcanoes

Maar–diatreme volcanoes represent the second most common volcano type on continents and islands. This study presents a first review of syn- and posteruptive volcanic and related hazards and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Maar–diatreme volcanoes are phreatomagmatic monogenetic volcanoes. They may erupt explosively for days to 15 years. Above the preeruptive surface a relatively flat tephra ring forms. Below the preeruptive surface the maar crater is incised because of formation and downward penetration of a cone-shaped diatreme and its root zone. During activity both the maar-crater and the diatreme grow in depth and diameter. Inside the diatreme, which may penetrate downwards for up to 2.5 km, fragmented country rocks and juvenile pyroclasts accumulate in primary pyroclastic deposits but to a large extent also as reworked deposits. Ejection of large volumes of country rocks results in a mass deficiency in the root zone of the diatreme and causes the diatreme fill to subside, thus the diatreme represents a kind of growing sinkhole. Due to the subsidence of the diatreme underneath, the maar-crater is a subsidence crater and also grows in depth and diameter with ongoing activity. As long as phreatomagmatic eruptions continue the tephra ring grows in thickness and outer slope angle.Syneruptive hazards of maar–diatreme volcanoes are earthquakes, eruption clouds, tephra fall, base surges, ballistic blocks and bombs, lahars, volcanic gases, cutting of the growing maar crater into the preeruptive ground, formation of a tephra ring, fragmentation of country rocks, thus destruction of area and ground, changes in groundwater table, and potential renewal of eruptions. The main hazards mostly affect an area 3 to possibly 5 km in radius. Distal effects are comparable to those of small eruption clouds from polygenetic volcanoes. Syneruptive effects on infrastructure, people, animals, vegetation, agricultural land, and drainage are pointed out. Posteruptive hazards concern erosion and formation of lahars. Inside the crater a lake usually forms and diverse types of sediments accumulate in the crater. Volcanic gases may be released in the crater. Compaction and other diagenetic processes within the diatreme fill result in its subsidence. This posteruptive subsidence of the diatreme fill and thus crater floor is relatively large initially but will decrease with time. It may last millions of years. Various studies and monitoring are suggested for syn- and posteruptive activities of maar–diatreme volcanoes erupting in the future. The recently formed maar–diatreme volcanoes should be investigated repeatedly to understand more about their syneruptive behaviour and hazards and also their posteruptive topographic, limnic, and biologic evolution, and potential posteruptive hazards. For future maar–diatreme eruptions a hazard map with four principal hazard zones is suggested with the two innermost ones having a joint radius of up to 5 km. Areas that are potentially endangered by maar–diatreme eruptions in the future are pointed out.     

Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java

Of 1.1 million people living on the flanks of the active Merapi volcano, 440,000 are at relatively high risk in areas prone to pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars. For the last two centuries, the activity of Merapi has alternated regularly between long periods of viscous lava dome extrusion, and brief explosive episodes at 8–15 year intervals, which generated dome-collapse pyroclastic flows and destroyed part of the pre-existing domes. Violent explosive episodes on an average recurrence of 26–54 years have generated pyroclastic flows, surges, tephra-falls, and subsequent lahars. The 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s killed about 7000 people. The current hazard-zone map of Merapi (Pardyanto et al., 1978) portrays three areas, termed ‘forbidden zone’, ‘first danger zone’ and ‘second danger zone’, based on successively declining hazards. Revision of the hazard map is desirable, because it lacks details necessary to outline hazard zones with accuracy, in particular the valleys likely to be swept by lahars, and excludes some areas likely to be devastated by pyroclastic gravity-currents such as the 22 November 1994 surge. In addition, risk maps should be developed to incorporate social, technical, and economic factors of vulnerability.Eruptive hazard assessment at Merapi is based on reconstructed eruptive history, on eruptive behavior and scenarios, and on existing models and preliminary numerical modeling. Firstly, the reconstructed eruptive activity, in particular for the past 7000 years and from historical accounts of eruptions, helps to define the extent and recurrence frequency of the most hazardous phenomena (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 9–15 km from the source, pyroclastic surges swept the flanks as far as 9–20 km away from the vent, thick tephra fall buried temples in the vicinity of Yogyakarta 25 km to the south, and subsequent lahars spilled down the radial valleys as far as 30 km to the west and south. At least one large edifice collapse has occurred in the past 7000 years (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Secondly, four eruption scenarios are portrayed as hazardous zones on two maps and derived from the past eruptive behavior of Merapi and from the most affected areas in the past. Thirdly, simple numerical simulation, based on a Digital Elevation Model, a stereo-pair of SPOT satellite images, and one 2D-orthoimage helps to simulate pyroclastic and lahar flowage on the flanks and in radial valley channels, and to outline areas likely to be devastated.Three major threats are identified: (1) a collapse of the summit dome in the short-to mid-term, that can release large-volume pyroclastic flows and high-energy surges towards the south–southwest sector of the volcano; (2) an explosive eruption, much larger than any since 1930, may sweep all the flanks of Merapi at least once every century; (3) a potential collapse of the summit area, involving the fumarolic field of Gendol and part of the southern flank, which can contribute to moderate-scale debris avalanches and debris flows.     

The hazards of eruptions through lakes and seawater

Eruptions through crater lakes or shallow seawater, referred to here as subaqueous eruptions, present hazards from hydromagmatic explosions, such as base surges, lahars, and tsunamis, which may not exist at volcanoes on dry land. We have systematically compiled information from eruptions through surface water in order to understand the circumstances under which these hazards occur and what disastrous effects they have caused in the past. Subaqueous eruptions represent only 8% of all recorded eruptions but have produced about 20% of all fatalities associated with volcanic activity in historical time. Excluding eruptions that have resulted in about a hundred deaths or less, lahars have killed people in the largest number of historical subaqueous eruptions (8), followed by pyroclastic flows (excluding base surges; 5) tsunamis (4), and base surges (2). Subaqueous eruptions have produced lahars primarily on high (>1000 m), steep-sided volcanoes containing small (<1 km diameter) crater lakes. Tsunamis and other water waves have caused death or destroyed man-made structures only at submarine volcanoes and at Lake Taal in the Philippines. In spite of evidence that magma–water mixing makes eruptions more explosive, such explosions and their associated base surges have caused fewer deaths, and have been implicated in fewer eruptions involving large numbers of fatalities than lahars and tsunamis. The latter hazards are more deadly because they travel much farther from a volcano and inundate coastal areas and stream valleys that tend to be densely settled.     

Hazards from pyroclastic density currents at Mt. Etna (Italy)

Despite the recent recognition of Mount Etna as a periodically violently explosive volcano, the hazards from various types of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have until now received virtually no attention at this volcano. Large-scale pyroclastic flows last occurred during the caldera-forming Ellittico eruptions, 15–16 ka ago, and the risk of them occurring in the near future is negligible. However, minor PDCs can affect much of the summit area and portions of the upper flanks of the volcano. During the past ~ 20 years, small pyroclastic flows or base-surge-like vapor and ash clouds have occurred in at least 8 cases during summit eruptions of Etna. Four different mechanisms of PDC generation have been identified during these events: (1) collapse of pyroclastic fountains (as in 2000 and possibly in 1986); (2) phreatomagmatic explosions resulting from mixing of lava with wet rock (2006); (3) phreatomagmatic explosions resulting from mixing of lava with thick snow (2007); (4) disintegration of the unstable flanks of a lava dome-like structure growing over the rim of one of the summit craters (1999). All of these recent PDCs were of a rather minor extent (maximum runout lengths were about 1.5 km in November 2006 and March 2007) and thus they represented no threat for populated areas and human property around the volcano. Yet, events of this type pose a significant threat to the lives of people visiting the summit area of Etna, and areas in a radius of 2 km from the summit craters should be off-limits anytime an event capable of producing similar PDCs occurs. The most likely source of further PDCs in the near future is the Southeast Crater, the youngest, most active and most unstable of the four summit craters of Etna, where 6 of the 8 documented recent PDCs originated. It is likely that similar hazards exist in a number of volcanic settings elsewhere, especially at snow- or glacier-covered volcanoes and on volcano slopes strongly affected by hydrothermal alteration.     

Erosion and aggradation on persistently active volcanoes—a case study from Semeru Volcano,Indonesia

Erosion processes on active volcanoes in humid climates result in some of the highest sediment yields on Earth. Episodic sediment yields after large eruptions have been evaluated, but not the long-term and continuous patterns on persistently active volcanoes. We have used high-spatial resolution satellite imagery and DEMs/DSMs along with field-based geologic mapping to assess accurately sediment budgets for the active Semeru Volcano in Java, Indonesia. Patterns of aggradation and degradation on Semeru differ from that of other active volcanoes because (1) both episodic pyroclastic density currents (PDC) and continuous supplies of tephra generate pulses of sediment, (2) sediment is transferred via cycles of aggradation and degradation that continue for >15 years in river channels after each PDC-producing eruption, and (3) rain-triggered lahars remove much greater material than fluvial transport during long, intense rainfall events. The geomorphic response of two of Semeru’s rivers to volcanic sediment migration indicates that (1) each river experiences alternating aggradation and degradation cycles following PDC-producing eruptions and (2) spatial patterns of sediment transfer are governed by geomorphic characteristics of the river reaches. Usually high degradation in the steep source reach is followed by a long bypassing middle reach. Aggradation predominates in the depositional reaches further down valley on the ring plain. Average sediment yields (10³–10⁵ t/km²/year) at persistently active volcanoes are two to three orders of magnitude lower than sediment yields after large and infrequent eruptions, but the continuous and steady sediment transfer in rivers removes more sediment on a mid-term (10 years) to long-term (30 years) basis. In contrast to the trend observed on composite cones after large and infrequent eruptions, decay of sediment yields is not exponential and river channels do not fully recover at steadily active volcanoes as episodic inputs from BAF eruptions, superimposed on the background remobilization of daily tephra, have a greater cumulative effect.     

Frequent eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last ∼2,600 years

Field, geochronologic, and geochemical evidence from proximal fine-grained tephras, and from limited exposures of Holocene lava flows and a small pyroclastic flow document ten–12 eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2,600 years, contrasting with previously published evidence for only 11–12 eruptions of the volcano for all of the Holocene. Except for the pumiceous subplinian C event of 2,200 cal year BP, the late-Holocene eruptions were weakly explosive, involving lava effusions and at least two block-and-ash pyroclastic flows. Eruptions were clustered from ∼2,600 to ∼2,200 cal year BP, an interval referred to as the Summerland eruptive period that includes the youngest lava effusion from the volcano. Thin, fine-grained tephras are the only known primary volcanic products from eruptions near 1,500 and 1,000 cal year BP, but these and earlier eruptions were penecontemporaneous with far-traveled lahars, probably created from newly erupted materials melting snow and glacial ice. The most recent magmatic eruption of Mount Rainier, documented geochemically, was the 1,000 cal year BP event. Products from a proposed eruption of Mount Rainier between AD 1820 and 1854 (X tephra of Mullineaux (US Geol Surv Bull 1326:1–83, 1974)) are redeposited C tephra, probably transported onto young moraines by snow avalanches, and do not record a nineteenth century eruption. We found no conclusive evidence for an eruption associated with the clay-rich Electron Mudflow of ∼500 cal year BP, and though rare, non-eruptive collapse of unstable edifice flanks remains as a potential hazard from Mount Rainier. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. T. W. Sisson and J. W. Vallance contributed equally to this study.     

Tungurahua Volcano,Ecuador: structure,eruptive history and hazards

Tungurahua, one of Ecuador's most active volcanoes, is made up of three volcanic edifices. Tungurahua I was a 14-km-wide andesitic stratocone which experienced at least one sector collapse followed by the extrusion of a dacite lava series. Tungurahua II, mainly composed of acid andesite lava flows younger than 14,000 years BP, was partly destroyed by the last collapse event, 2955±90 years ago, which left a large amphitheater and produced a ∼8-km³ debris deposit. The avalanche collided with the high ridge immediately to the west of the cone and was diverted to the northwest and southwest for ∼15 km. A large lahar formed during this event, which was followed in turn by dacite extrusion. Southwestward, the damming of the Chambo valley by the avalanche deposit resulted in a ∼10-km-long lake, which was subsequently breached, generating another catastrophic debris flow. The eruptive activity of the present volcano (Tungurahua III) has rebuilt the cone to about 50% of its pre-collapse size by the emission of ∼3 km³ of volcanic products. Two periods of construction are recognized in Tungurahua's III history. From ∼2300 to ∼1400 years BP, high rates of lava extrusion and pyroclastic flows occurred. During this period, the magma composition did not evolve significantly, remaining essentially basic andesite. During the last ∼1300 years, eruptive episodes take place roughly once per century and generally begin with lapilli fall and pyroclastic flow activity of varied composition (andesite+dacite), and end with more basic andesite lava flows or crater plugs. This pattern is observed in the three historic eruptions of 1773, 1886 and 1916–1918. Given good age control and volumetric considerations, Tungurahua III growth's rate is estimated at ∼1.5×10⁶ m³/year over the last 2300 years. Although an infrequent event, a sector collapse and associated lahars constitute a strong hazard of this volcano. Given the ∼3000 m relief and steep slopes of the present cone, a future collapse, even of small volume, could cover an area similar to that affected by the ∼3000-year-old avalanche. The more frequent eruptive episodes of each century, characterized by pyroclastic flows, lavas, lahars, as well as tephra falls, directly threaten 25,000 people and the Agoyan hydroelectric dam located at the foot of the volcano.     

Volcanoes of the Cape Hoskins area,New Britain,territory of Papua and New Guinea

One active and ten extinct Quaternary volcanoes are described from the Cape Hoskins area, on the north coast of New Britain. They are mostly strato volcanoes built up of lava flows, lava domes, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra, and derived alluvial sediments. The volcanic products range in composition from basalt to rhyolite, but basaltic andesite and andesite predominate. Much of the area is covered by tephra, several metres thick, consisting mainly of rhyolitic pumice. The active volcano, Pago, is built up of several glacier-like lava flows, the last of which was formed during an eruption in 1914–18. Pago lies within a well-preserved caldera forming the central part of a broad low-angle cone, named Witori, which consists largely of welded and unwelded pyroclastic flow deposits. C-14 dates obtained on charcoal indicate that the caldera eruption occurred about 2500 years B. P. Another caldera of similar age lies south of Witori. Of the other eight volcanoes described four are relatively well-preserved steep-sided cones formed mainly of lava flows, one is a remnant of a low-angle cone with a caldera, and three are deeply eroded cones which have none of their constructional surfaces preserved.     

SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA

Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10^-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.     

Lahars at Merapi volcano, Central Java: an overview

Merapi volcano, in Central Java, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. At least 23 of the 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have produced source deposits for lahars. The combined lahar deposits cover about 286 km² on the flanks and the surrounding piedmonts of the volcano. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 h. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April, and have average velocities of 5–7 m/s at 1000 m in elevation. A wide range of facies may be generated from a single flow, which may transform downvalley from debris flow to hyperconcentrated streamflow.Because of the high frequency and magnitude of the lahar events, lahar-related hazards are high below about 450–600 m elevation in each of the 13 rivers which drain the volcano. Hazard-zone maps for lahar were produced by Pardyanto et al. (Volcanic hazard map, Merapi volcano, Central Java (1/100,000). Geol. Surv. of Indonesia, Bandung, II, 4, 1978) and the Japanese–Indonesian Cooperation Agency (Master plan for land conservation and volcanic debris control in the area of Mt Merapi, Jakarta, 1980), but these maps are of a very small scale to meet modern zoning requirements. More recently, a few large-scale maps (1/10,000- and 1/2000-scale) and risk assessments have been completed for a few critical river systems.     

The Taurewa Eruptive Episode: evidence for climactic eruptions at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

 The ca. 10,500 years B.P. eruptions at Ruapehu volcano deposited 0.2–0.3 km³ of tephra on the flanks of Ruapehu and the surrounding ring plain and generated the only known pyroclastic flows from this volcano in the late Quaternary. Evidence of the eruptions is recorded in the stratigraphy of the volcanic ring plain and cone, where pyroclastic flow deposits and several lithologically similar tephra deposits are identified. These deposits are grouped into the newly defined Taurewa Formation and two members, Okupata Member (tephra-fall deposits) and Pourahu Member (pyroclastic flow deposits). These eruptions identify a brief (<ca. 2000-year) but explosive period of volcanism at Ruapehu, which we define as the Taurewa Eruptive Episode. This Episode represents the largest event within Ruapehu's ca. 22,500-year eruptive history and also marks its culmination in activity ca. 10,000 years B.P. Following this episode, Ruapehu volcano entered a ca. 8000-year period of relative quiescence. We propose that the episode began with the eruption of small-volume pyroclastic flows triggered by a magma-mingling event. Flows from this event travelled down valleys east and west of Ruapehu onto the upper volcanic ring plain, where their distal remnants are preserved. The genesis of these deposits is inferred from the remanent magnetisation of pumice and lithic clasts. We envisage contemporaneous eruption and emplacement of distal pumice-rich tephras and proximal welded tuff deposits. The potential for generation of pyroclastic flows during plinian eruptions at Ruapehu has not been previously considered in hazard assessments at this volcano. Recognition of these events in the volcanological record is thus an important new factor in future risk assessments and mitigation of volcanic risk at Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Received: 5 July 1998 / Accepted: 12 March 1999     

基于GIS的建筑物地震保险损失评估研究

本文讨论了与我国大陆火山地区相关的主要火山灾害类型,即火山空降物、火山碎屑流、火山泥石流、火山熔岩穹与熔岩流的成灾机制和灾害效应,并回顾了国际上火山灾害区划的研究现状,在此基础上,提出了适合我国具体情况的具有概率含义的火山灾害区划图的编图思路。     

我国火山灾害的主要类型及火山灾害区划图编制现状探讨

通过对《核电厂厂址选择中的地震问题》(HAF0101(1))有关条款的详细剖析,发震构造包括两个方面的含义:一是曾经是地震震源的地质构造;二是未来可能发生破坏性地震的地质构造。地震重演原则和构造类比原则是判定发震构造的两条基本依据,但在实际工作中构造类比原则的应用往往存在较大难度,对中强地震发震构造的判定尤其如此。文中提出:对中强地震构造带地貌差异性和第四纪地层分布特征的研究有可能提供识别发生中强地震地质构造的标志。     

Depositional record of historic lahars in the upper Whangaehu Valley, Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand: implications for trigger mechanisms, flow dynamics and lahar hazards

Mt. Ruapehu, in the central North Island of New Zealand, is one of the most lahar-prone volcanoes in the world. Since historic observations began in 1861 AD, more than 50 individual lahars have been recorded in the Whangaehu valley alone, the natural outlet to the summit Crater Lake. These lahars have been triggered by a variety of mechanisms, including explosive eruptions that displaced Crater Lake water over the outlet or ejected it onto the snow-clad summit area of the volcano; rain-remobilisation of tephra deposits on steep slopes; displacement over the outlet as a result of syn-eruptive changes in lake bathymetry; and lake break-outs from Crater Lake following impoundment of excess water behind temporary barriers of tephra and/or ice emplaced over the outlet. However, only 9 lahar deposits can be distinguished in the upper Whangaehu valley on sedimentological, stratigraphic, geomorphic and petrological grounds, and these are skewed towards either the largest or the most recent flows. In some cases magnitude can be reconstructed from deposit geometry, with the largest lahars producing the highest level terraces, the coarsest deposits, and crossing drainage divides into normally inactive channels. This under-representation of historic events reflects the low preservation potential of unconsolidated deposits in a steep alpine environment, and the overprinting and recycling effect of large magnitude lahars that rework material down to bedrock and effectively reset the stratigraphic record. Development of magnitude-frequency relationships for Ruapehu lahars therefore requires the identification of lahar deposits in proximal, medial and distal settings in order to ensure that the full range of events is represented.     

A prehistoric lahar-dammed lake and eruption of Mount Pinatubo described in a Philippine aborigine legend

The prehistoric eruptions of Mount Pinatubo have followed a cycle: centuries of repose terminated by a caldera-forming eruption with large pyroclastic flows; a post-eruption aftermath of rain-triggered lahars in surrounding drainages and dome-building that fills the caldera; and then another long quiescent period. During and after the eruptions lahars descending along volcano channels may block tributaries from watersheds beyond Pinatubo, generating natural lakes. Since the 1991 eruption, the Mapanuepe River valley in the southwestern sector of the volcano has been the site of a large lahar-dammed lake. Geologic evidence indicates that similar lakes have occupied this site at least twice before. An Ayta legend collected decades before Mount Pinatubo was recognized as a volcano describes what is probably the younger of these lakes, and the caldera-forming eruption that destroyed it.     

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.