Processes of the displacement field change of the 2009 April 6 M_W6.3 L’Aquila earthquake using persistent scatterer and small baseline methods

Using a time series method that combines both the persistent scatterer and small baseline approaches, we analyzed 9 scenes Envisat ASAR data over the L＇Aquila earthquake, and obtained a Shocke＇s displacement field and its evolution processes. The results show that： （1） Envisat ASAR clearly detected the whole processes of displacement field of the L＇Aquila earthquake, and distinct variations at different stages of the displacement field. （2） Preseismic creep displacement → displacement mutation when faulting → constantly slowed down after the earthquake. （3） The area of the strongest deformation and ground rupture was a low-lying oval depression region to the southeast. Surface faulting within a zone of about 22 km× 14 km, with an orientation of 135°, occurred along the NW-striking and SW-dipping Paganica-S. Demetrio normal fault. （4） In analyzing an area of about 54 km x 59 km, bounded by north-south axis to the epicenter, the displacement field has significant characteristics of a watershed： westward of the epicenter shows uplift with maximum of 130 mm in line-of-sight （LOS）, and east of the epicenter was a region with 220 mm of maximum subsidence in the LOS, concentrating on the rupture zone, the majority of which formed in the course of faulting and subsequence.     

Characteristics of the strong ground motions from the 6 April 2009 L’Aquila earthquake,Italy

An M_w 6.25 earthquake occurred on April 6, 2009 at 03:33 a.m. local time, in the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), close to the city of L’Aquila. The earthquake ruptured a North-West (NW)–South-East (SE) oriented normal fault dipping toward the South-West (SW), with the city of L’Aquila lying a few kilometers away on the hanging wall.The main shock has been recorded by fifty-eight accelerometric stations: the highest number of digital recordings ever obtained in Italy for a single earthquake, one of the best-recorded earthquakes with a normal fault mechanism. Very high values of peak ground acceleration (0.3–0.65 g) were observed close to the center of L’Aquila (6 stations at zero JB distance from the fault). The earthquake caused severe loss of lives (299 victims and 1500 injured) and damage (about 18000 unusable buildings) in the epicentral area.In this study we analyze the ground motion characteristics of both the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and pseudo-acceleration response spectra (5% of damping ratio). In particular, we compare the pseudo-acceleration response spectra for horizontal directions with the EC8 design spectrum and the new Italian building code (NTC08). In order to understand the characteristics of the ground motions induced by L’Aquila earthquake, we also study the source-related effects and site response of the strong motion stations that recorded the seismic sequence. A novel method is used for the analysis of inter-station and site-specific H/V spectral ratios for the main event and for 12 aftershocks.     

Recorded ground motion and site effects evaluation for the April 6, 2009 L��Aquila earthquake

On April 6, 2009 a M_L = 5.8 earthquake hit the city of L’Aquila on the Apennine chain in central Italy. Notwithstanding the moderate-size event the L’Aquila city and several small villages along the Aterno river valley suffered severe damage, because of the unusual strong motions, mainly due to proximity to the fault (estimated hypocentral depth of about 10 km). In this paper the main features of the recorded motion are discussed. Four accelerometric stations were located within the surface projection of the fault and recorded peak values ranging from 0.4 to 0.6 g. The recorded motions were characterised by short durations and high peak accelerations both in the horizontal and vertical directions. The strong portions of vertical and horizontal motions occurred almost simultaneously due to the short travel paths of P and S waves from the fault to the ground surface near the fault area. Hence site response analyses were performed for the sites where recording stations were located. The geotechnical subsoil model was derived by boreholes, in situ dynamic tests (D-H and SDMT) and by laboratory tests (RCT). One-dimensional numerical analyses were carried out employing the well known computer code EERA. The numerical model was calibrated, in the linear equivalent range, by comparing numerical results with the horizontal acceleration recorded components.     

2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉(L＇Aquila)地震快速矩张量解.

2009年4月6日1点32分42秒协调世界时（UTC）,在意大利中部地区发生了MW6.4地震．作者利用矩张量快速反演技术,通过反演全球台网的宽频带P波波形得到了这次地震的矩张量解,并判断走向132deg;、倾角53deg;、滑动角——103deg;的节面是地震发生的断层面．      

\tau_p^{{\rm max}} magnitude estimation, the case of the April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

Rapid magnitude estimate procedures represent a crucial part of proposed earthquake early warning systems. Most of these estimates are focused on the first part of the P-wave train, the earlier and less destructive part of the ground motion that follows an earthquake. Allen and Kanamori (Science 300:786–789, 2003) proposed to use the predominant period of the P-wave to determine the magnitude of a large earthquake at local distance and Olivieri et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 185:74–81, 2008) calibrated a specific relation for the Italian region. The Mw 6.3 earthquake hit Central Italy on April 6, 2009 and the largest aftershocks provide a useful dataset to validate the proposed relation and discuss the risks connected to the extrapolation of magnitude relations with a poor dataset of large earthquake waveforms. A large discrepancy between local magnitude (ML) estimated by means of $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ evaluation and standard ML (6.8 ± 1.5 vs. 5.9 ± 0.4) suggests using caution when ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ calibrations do not include a relevant dataset of large earthquakes. Effects from large residuals could be mitigated or removed introducing selection rules on τ _p function, by regionalizing the ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ function in the presence of significant tectonic or geological heterogeneity, and using probabilistic and evolutionary methods.     

Local variability of the ground shaking during the 2009 L��Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009��Mw 6.3): the case study of Onna and Monticchio villages

The 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event caused extensive damage in the city of L’Aquila and in some small towns in its vicinity. The most severe damage was recognized SE of L’Aquila town along the Aterno river valley. Although building vulnerability and near-source effects are strongly responsible for the high level of destruction, site effects have been invoked to explain the damage heterogeneities and the similarities between the 2009 macroseismic field with the intensities of historical earthquakes. The small village of Onna is settled on quaternary alluvium and suffered during the L’Aquila event an extremely heavy damage in the masonry structures with intensity IX–X on the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) scale. The village of Monticchio, far less than 1.3 km from Onna, is mostly situated on Mesozoic limestone and suffered a smaller level of damaging (VI MCS). In the present paper, we analyze the aftershock recordings at seismic stations deployed in a small area of the middle-Aterno valley including Onna and Monticchio. The aim is to investigate local amplification effects caused by the near-surface geology. Because the seismological stations are close together, vulnerability and near-source effects are assumed to be constant. The waveform analysis shows that the ground motion at Onna is systematically characterized by large high-frequency content. The frequency resonance is varying from 2 to 3 Hz and it is related to alluvial sediments with a thickness of about 40 m that overlay a stiffer Pleistocene substrate. The ground motion recordings of Onna are well reproduced by the predictive equation for the Italian territory.     

Microzonation study in the Paganica-San Gregorio area affected by the April 6, 2009 L��Aquila earthquake (central Italy) and implications for the reconstruction

The earthquake of April 6th, 2009 in the L’Aquila area is one of the largest seismic events of the last years in Italy. The event, that caused significant damage in a large area of the Abruzzo region (cental Italy) and site amplification phenomena which were recorded even at large distances from the epicentre. After the emergency period, a detailed study of the surface effects was necessary for the post-earthquake reconstruction, but in a way it should be carried out rapidly enough to give instructions to urban planners, codes to public administrators and information to engineers. A team of surveyors were trained to collect field information such as geologic and geomorphologic features and geotechnical or geophysical information. The seismic inputs, for the numerical analyses, were provided, and the collected information were analyzed with the aid of dynamic codes to calculate the possible local site effects. The results are presented as acceleration response spectra, amplification coefficients (FA, FV and FH) and microzonation maps, aimed to urban planning and project design. In particular the more dangerous areas, affected by the higher amplification effects, were identified. Finally a comparison between the results obtained by the numerical analyses and the results derived from an experimental field analysis, measuring both earthquake weak motion and ambient noise, were performed. In this paper we present the results for one of the most severely damaged area (up to IX-X MCS), the Paganica–Tempera–Onna-San Gregorio area, located 6 to 10 km east of the April 6th main shock.     

An application of EMS98 in a medium-sized city: The case of L��Aquila (Central Italy) after the April 6, 2009 Mw 6.3 earthquake

This paper describes the damage survey in the city of L??Aquila after the 6 April 2009 earthquake. The earthquake, whose magnitude and intensity reached Mw?=?6.3 and Imax?=?9?C10 MCS, struck the Abruzzi region of Central Italy producing severe damage in L??Aquila and in many villages along the Middle Aterno River valley. After the event, a building-to-building survey was performed in L??Aquila downtown aiming to collect data in order to perform a strict evaluation of the damage. The survey was carried out under the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98) to evaluate the local macroseismic intensity. This damage survey represents the most complex application of the EMS98 in Italy since it became effective. More than 1,700 buildings (99% of the building stock) were taken into account during the survey at L??Aquila downtown, highlighting the difficult application of the macroseismic scale in a large urban context. The EMS98 revealed itself to be the best tool to perform such kind of analysis in urban settings. The complete survey displayed evidence of peculiar features in the damage distribution. Results revealed that the highest rate of collapses occurred within a delimited area of the historical centre and along the SW border of the fluvial terrace on which the city is settled. Intensity assessed for L??Aquila downtown was 8?C9 EMS.     

Light for Earthquake Prediction:Shocks before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6,2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.     

2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震的前震及其预测意义

本文通过分析2009年1月1日～4月5日意大利及周边地区中小地震的时空分布特征发现,2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震是一次具有明显前震的中强地震.震前中小地震从频度和强度上在时间和空间向未来震中聚集的现象,为探索利用前震序列进行地震预测提供了较好的研究案例.     

Comprehensive Approaches to Earthquake Prediction

There may be various anomalies from fields of multi-discipline before large earthquakes, including seismological anomalies and the anomalous changes in crustal deformation, underground fluids, geochemistry, geomagnetic fields, ground resistivity, etc. Precursors of a single discipline only reflect the process of earthquake preparation from one aspect. Only when various precursors from multi-disciplined fields are put into a unified process of earthquake preparation can the process be understood and identified comprehensively. The comprehensive methods used in earthquake prediction are outlined in this paper. The relationship that the forthcoming main shock bears with the precursory features such as the time-space distribution, the order of the precursors, etc. is analyzed. Research shows that a few of the main shocks can be predicted with the comprehensive methods to some extent.     

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

河南范县M_L4.3地震前后的重力场变化与预报过程

讨论了2005年4月27日范县ML4.3地震前后重力场的变化:自2003年5月经历了趋势下降→转折上升→变化加速,地震发生在加速变化过程中。部分测点点值、测段段差值的趋势性异常在持续相当长时间后变化幅值在(30~60)×10-8m.s-2之间。震后该区的重力异常没有恢复。重力变化可能是由该区地壳形变、地壳深部质量迁移和断层蠕动共同作用引起的。介绍了根据重力异常预报地震的过程。     

Tracing Subsurface Fluid Anomalies Before Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake and Prediction of the Earthquake

High-value subsurface fluid anomalies appeared in the northern part of North China region for more than two years before the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake. Some of the anomalies have appeared alternately and were correlated with moderate and moderately strong earthquakes in the region during the last year (1997). Typical short-term subsurface fluid anomalies have appeared in the area at 100 km ~ 200 km distance from the epicenter for two months before an earthquake. Tracing these anomalies during the last two years and repeatedly improving the knowledge of seismic regime, we have more successfully performed short-term and imminent earthquake prediction at half a month before its occurrence.     

严重的挫折 重要的启示汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考

首先指出汶川8.0级地震前我国地震工作部门地震预测努力遭受严重挫折的主要表现, 阐明这一严重挫折是地震预测面临的三个主要困难: 地球内部“不可入性”、 大地震的“非频发性”和地震物理过程“复杂性”。 但这一严重挫折给人以重要的启示: 面对地震预测这一科学难题, 必须勇于扬弃, 努力处理好地震预测经验的继承与发展的关系; 必须充分发挥地震科技工作者群体的主体作用, 努力推进地震预测理论、 技术的创新; 必须明确地震预测的主要对象, 加强大地震的预测研究。     

国外地震预测预报研究的一些震例

本文收集了国外地震预测预报研究中一些引起关注的震例,包括回溯性前兆检验的震例和实际预测预报的震例,作为一个不完整的索引,以期对国内相关领域的研究有所帮助。     

位于预测区边缘附近的地震统计检验问题

对位于地震预测工作所圈定的地震危险区附近的地震的统计检验问题 ,一直是地震预测研究中一个颇有争议的问题。本文以中国地震局全国年度地震趋势会商的情况为例 ,对这一问题进行了探讨。结果表明 ,将所划定的地震危险区适度扩大 ,即将现有的地震危险区范围向外扩大约 0 5° ,可以显著地提高预测地震的“命中率”。但从统计检验的角度说 ,这样做并不能提高实际地震预测的能力 ,亦即并不能使R值有显著的提高。     

海城地震预报过程的回顾及地震预报发展的思考

通过1975年海城地震预报过程的回顾,结合国内外地震监测预报研究的进展,提出了发展我国地震预报研究的建议。