长江经济带地区活动构造与区域地壳稳定性基本特征

基于长江经济带地区活动断裂资料的收集整理和总结,结合新的遥感解译与地表调查结果,初步归纳了该区的活动构造基本特征,梳理出直接或间接威胁重要城市群、国家级新区和区域重要交通过江通道地壳稳定性的主要活动断裂及应对建议或对策,并进一步重点指出长江中下游成都-上海沿江地区的32条重要活动断裂带及其穿越或影响到的主要城市群和重大工程。在活动断裂梳理结果基础上,总结提出长江经济带西部的强烈地壳变形与地震活动主要由印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞作用下在青藏高原东南缘地区形成的“川滇弧形旋扭活动构造体系”所控制,而中-东部地区属于印度板块与西太平洋板块共同作用下区域性挤压-剪切变形导致的具有共轭走滑断裂系统特征的“棋盘格子式”活动构造体系格局,其中需要特别关注7条典型活动断裂带的活动性及其对城市群地壳稳定性的影响。根据区域的活动构造体系、活动断裂与历史地震活动性等特点,初步归纳了该区的未来地震危险性问题及应重点关注的潜在强震危险区段,指出了典型的区域古地震地质遗迹特征及开展古地震调查研究的重要性。同时,依据长江经济带地区初步的区域地壳稳定性评价结果,认为次不稳定区和不稳定区主要集中在西部地区,而中-东部地区以次稳定区与相对稳定区为主,仅郯庐断裂带及其周边存在较明显的次不稳定区。最后,指出了长江经济带活动构造与区域地壳稳定性调查评价工作在活动断裂地质调查研究和城市活断层鉴别与地震危险性评价中面临的主要问题与挑战。      

Evaluating typical flood risks in Yangtze River Economic Belt: application of a flood risk mapping framework

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the three national strategies of China, while flood risk is one of the most important concerns in the development of Yangtze River Economic Belt. In order to decrease the risks caused by floods, complete flood management system and adequate pre-arranged planning are desiderated to be researched in advance. This study considers two typical situations of flood risk, in which one is sluice-control situation in flood detention area and another is dike-break situation in flood-protected area, and proposes a framework for flood risk mapping. The results show that the losses caused by flood hazards are massive both in the two typical cases when extreme floods happen. The economic losses of different indicators are of great difference in flood detention area and flood-protected area, respectively. The framework effectively handles the complex boundaries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and provides more accurate flood routing information. The evacuation plan module which has been incorporated in the framework also provides informative assistance for emergent action of evacuation under urgent condition.     

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.     

长江经济带构造应力场特征及动力学环境分析

综合已有的研究成果,根据长江经济带活动构造块体和构造应力场的分布特征进行了构造应力场分区,总体上划分为华北应力分区、华南应力分区以及青藏高原应力分区,其中华南应力分区是长江经济带的主体应力分区。在此基础上,根据长江经济带的活动断裂及构造块体划分建立了有限元网格模型,利用二维有限元对长江经济带的构造应力场进行模拟,并分析了长江经济带的动力学环境。研究表明,长江经济带构造应力场受印度板块、太平洋板块和菲律宾板块联合作用控制,印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞作用决定了长江经济带总体构造应力场的主要趋势,局部区域受到周边构造环境的影响;东南部处于菲律宾板块向欧亚板块俯冲所诱发的拉张环境,表现为冲绳海槽,西南部受印度板块北移所诱发的缅甸板块的剪切拉张作用,表现为实皆断裂及其西侧的缅甸中央盆地;青藏高原东缘物质横向挤出过程中受到太平洋板块和菲律宾板块的联合俯冲作用,对长江经济带地应力场的分布特征产生重要影响。      

长江中下游成矿带含稀散金属矿床特征初探

稀散金属是关键金属的重要部分,其矿化特点和成矿规律等方面受到矿床学界高度关注。文章总结了全球稀散金属矿化类型和分布规律,除了镓、镉和铊矿床外,其他锗、硒、铟、碲和铼5种稀散金属普遍伴生于斑岩-矽卡岩铜矿系统。笔者初步地绘制了全球斑岩型和矽卡岩型稀散金属的分布图、长江中下游成矿带含稀散金属矿床的分布图,指出长江中下游成矿带有2种不同类型含稀散金属矿床:一类呈伴生产于斑岩-矽卡岩铜铁金和铅锌矿床,以多种稀散金属为特征;另一类呈独立稀散金属矿床;以前者为主。文章以长江中下游矿成矿带鄂东南丰山矿田为例,介绍碲和铊的赋存状态,初步地建立了矽卡岩铜金碲矿床+远接触带低温金铊碲矿床组合模型。最后提出矽卡岩型稀散金属矿床重点关注的科学问题,建议加强氧化型含金矽卡岩矿床伴生的稀散金属矿床的成矿机制研究。     

长江经济带中-东部地区(重庆-上海段)地震活动特征及面临的地震危险性问题

基于历史和仪器地震资料,重点介绍了长江经济带东段地震活动特点,进行了地震区带划分,探讨了该区中心城市的震灾问题,并结合区域地震异常,指出了当前华东沿海和郯庐带南段的地震危险性信息,指出了本区面临的地震安全和防震减灾的问题及相关建议。      

长江经济带地质环境综合调查工程进展与主要成果

为保护长江生态环境,近年来,中国地质调查局组织实施了“长江经济带地质环境综合调查工程”。通过采用环境地质调查、评价、监测以及专题研究和综合研究相结合等方法,取得了一批重要成果和认识: ①初步构建了长江经济带地质资源环境综合信息管理与服务平台,系统梳理了长江经济带与重点区域的资源环境条件和重大地质问题,提出相关建议; ②创新地将“光纤技术”应用于地面沉降和地裂缝监测,相关成果引领了光纤监测技术发展; ③编制了1:5万比例尺的环境地质调查技术标准和要求; ④创新形成了3个层次环境地质调查合作机制,探索建立了3种尺度资源环境承载能力评价方法体系和大流域环境地质工作模式; ⑤建立了江汉平原地球关键带监测网络,编制了平原区地球关键带调查技术方法指南; ⑥提出了长江流域重大水利工程与生态地质环境多元响应研究思路,创新构建了一套多模态传感器调查系统,提出了重大水利工程对地质环境影响新判断; ⑦建立了长江中下游不同沉积单元区第四纪地层多重划分对比序列,构建了重点地区第四系三维地质结构模型,提出了长江贯通时限和演化新认识; ⑧编制了流域、经济区和城市系列地质调查报告和图集,成果转化与服务成效显著。该工程进展及成果提升了长江经济带地质调查工作水平,可为区域国土空间规划、绿色生态廊道打造、立体交通走廊建设、产业转型升级、新型城镇化建设以及脱贫攻坚工作等提供科技支撑。     

长江经济带地质环境综合调查工程进展与主要成果

为保护长江生态环境,近年来,中国地质调查局组织实施了“长江经济带地质环境综合调查工程”。通过采用环境地质调查、评价、监测以及专题研究和综合研究相结合等方法,取得了一批重要成果和认识: ①初步构建了长江经济带地质资源环境综合信息管理与服务平台,系统梳理了长江经济带与重点区域的资源环境条件和重大地质问题,提出相关建议; ②创新地将“光纤技术”应用于地面沉降和地裂缝监测,相关成果引领了光纤监测技术发展; ③编制了1:5万比例尺的环境地质调查技术标准和要求; ④创新形成了3个层次环境地质调查合作机制,探索建立了3种尺度资源环境承载能力评价方法体系和大流域环境地质工作模式; ⑤建立了江汉平原地球关键带监测网络,编制了平原区地球关键带调查技术方法指南; ⑥提出了长江流域重大水利工程与生态地质环境多元响应研究思路,创新构建了一套多模态传感器调查系统,提出了重大水利工程对地质环境影响新判断; ⑦建立了长江中下游不同沉积单元区第四纪地层多重划分对比序列,构建了重点地区第四系三维地质结构模型,提出了长江贯通时限和演化新认识; ⑧编制了流域、经济区和城市系列地质调查报告和图集,成果转化与服务成效显著。该工程进展及成果提升了长江经济带地质调查工作水平,可为区域国土空间规划、绿色生态廊道打造、立体交通走廊建设、产业转型升级、新型城镇化建设以及脱贫攻坚工作等提供科技支撑。     

长江经济带资源环境条件与重大地质问题

本文系统梳理了长江经济带以往地质研究成果,对长江经济带资源环境条件和国土规划建设中应关注的重大地质问题进行了研究。研究结果表明,长江经济带耕地、页岩气、地热、锂等资源条件优越,0.3亿hm2无重金属污染耕地集中分布,拥有3个国家级页岩气勘查开发基地,探明储量5441亿m3,每年地热可利用量折合标准煤2.4亿t,相当于2014年燃煤量的19%,发现亚洲最大的能源金属锂矿床,资源环境条件有利于发展现代农业、清洁能源产业和战略新兴产业;长江经济带部分地区存在活动断裂、岩溶塌陷、地面沉降、滑坡崩塌泥石流等重大地质问题,影响过江通道、高速铁路、城市群和绿色生态廊道规划建设,应予以关注,本文提出了相关建议和对策,同时,提出了下一步支撑服务长江经济带发展地质工作设想。     

攀西大梁子铅锌矿区水系沉积物重金属地球化学特征及源解析

长江上游是整个长江经济带的重要生态屏障。以长江上游攀西大梁子铅锌矿区水系沉积物为研究对象,查明了重金属元素含量的空间分布特征,分析了重金属来源,探讨了在不同pH条件下重金属的淋滤规律,并进行了生态风险评估。研究结果显示:攀西大桥河流域水系沉积物中重金属的空间分布极不均匀,其含量明显要高于长江水系沉积物中重金属的平均含量;重金属生态风险属于很强风险,Hg和Cd呈高度富集、严重污染;Pb和Zn呈中度富集、中等污染。淋滤实验结果表明Pb、Zn、Cd在酸性和中性条件下淋滤浓度先快速下降,后逐渐趋于平衡,而As在快速下降后又有缓慢升高的趋势。大桥河流域水系沉积物中As、Cd、Pb、Zn主要来源于大梁子铅锌矿的采选活动,Hg为岩石风化和土壤剥蚀来源,而Cu和Cr主要为农业和工业活动来源。综合对比发现,攀西成矿带铅锌矿周边土壤富Cd而贫Cr,此外Cd、Pb、Zn、Hg是主要潜在污染物,且生态风险程度较高。     

长江经济带地区岩石圈热流变结构和深部动力学

通过Crust 2.0模型构建有限元三维数值模型,以地表观测温度、深部反演温度和地表热流作为约束,计算了长江经济带地区岩石圈温度结构;在温度结构的基础上,通过GPS观测数据得到的地表应变率和选取代表性岩石物性,计算了长江经济带岩石圈流变强度和等效粘滞性系数。结果表明:长江经济带地区岩石圈表现出明显的横向不均匀性,其中四川盆地表现为低温、高强度和高粘滞性的特征,相同深度,四川盆地核心区比周围地块的温度低100~300℃,强度和粘滞性分别比周缘高1~2个数量级;在温度、强度和粘滞性的过渡地带构造活动性比较强烈。结合深部地球物理观测综合分析认为,长江经济带东、西部分别受到太平洋板块深俯冲和印度-欧亚大陆板块碰撞的影响,其深部影响范围分别达到四川盆地的东、西边界,深部动力学过程可能导致了岩石圈的横向不均匀性。      

Property insurance against debris-flow disasters based on risk assessment and the principal–agent theory

Dongchuan City is highly threatened by debris-flow disasters originating from Shengou gully, a typical debris-flow gully along Xiaojiang River in Yunnan Province (Kang et al. 2004). Shengou gully is studied, and a hazard assessment with numerical simulation is developed using ArcGIS 9.2 software. Debris-flow numerical simulation is an important method for predicting debris-flow inundation regions, zoning debris-flow risks, and helping in the design of debris-flow control works. Meanwhile, vulnerability measurement is essential for hazard and risk research. Based on the self-organized map neural network method, we combine the six vulnerability indicators to create an integrated debris-flow vulnerability map that depicts the vulnerability levels of Dongchuan City in Shengou Basin. Based on the risk assessment (including hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment), we adopt the principal–agent theory and use the risk degree of debris flows as an important index to build the insurance model and analyze the insurance premium of debris-flow disasters in Dongchuan City. This paper discusses the model and mechanism of property insurance in debris-flow risk regions and aims to provide technical support for insurance companies to participate in disaster prevention and reduction.     

A comparison of selected global disaster risk assessment results

We compare country risk rankings derived from two recently published global disaster risk analyses. One set of country rankings is based on the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) developed by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Division of Early Warning and Assessment Global Resource Information Database project under a contract to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The other is based on an index of disaster mortality risk developed by the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project implemented by Columbia University, the World Bank and associated partners. We convert data from these sources into two comparable indexes of disaster mortality risk and rank countries according to the resulting values for a set of natural hazards common to both studies. The country rankings are moderately correlated, ranging from .41 to .56 for individual hazards to .31 for multi-hazard mortality risks. We identify the top 25 countries according to the mortality risk values we recomputed from each study’s results to show the degree to which countries are highly ranked in common. The numbers of countries common to both lists for individual hazards range from 7 to 16 out of 25. The correspondence among the top 25 ranked countries is lowest for earthquakes and floods. Only 6 out of 25 countries are common to both lists in the multi-hazard case. We suggest that while the convergence in the results for some hazards is encouraging, more work is needed to improve data and methods, particularly with respect to assessing the role of vulnerability in the creation of risk and the calculation of multi-hazard risks. The views expressed are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of SM2 Consulting Multi-Hazards and Risk Holistic Solutions or the United Nations Development Program.     

下扬子页岩气地质调查新进展及突破难点思考

围绕长江经济带清洁能源体系建设对页岩气突破的重大需求，在充分整合长江下游地区以往地质和物探资料的基础上，系统开展了1:25万页岩气基础地质调查，在苏皖南沿江坳陷带、江西萍乐-浙江钱塘坳陷带、南华北地区"两带一区"实施了10口页岩气调查井，基本查明了主要工作区古生界二叠系、志留系、奥陶系、寒武系富有机质泥页岩成藏地质条件，有9口井分别在三叠、二叠、志留、寒武系4套层系获得页岩气、致密砂岩气、煤层气、页岩油、裂缝性砂岩油、裂缝性灰岩油"三气三油"的重要新发现，深化了二叠系和志留系成藏地质认识，探索了三叠系、奥陶系和寒武系含油气性，开辟了新区新层系，揭示了下扬子及南华北中—古生界油气页岩气资源勘查潜力。圈定了10个远景区，初步评价了9个远景区主要目标层的远景资源量，解决了资源前景问题；讨论了制约下扬子页岩气调查突破的卡脖子问题，提出了下一步突破的方向。      

论综合灾害风险防范模式——寻求全球变化影响的适应性对策

在评述国际上近年开展综合灾害风险研究进展的基础上,总结了笔者对综合灾害研究的一些想法与开展综合灾害风险防范的实践,提出了建立综合灾害风险防范模式,即发展区域灾害系统的理论;综合灾害脆弱性、恢复性与适应性,全面理解灾害风险的形成机制;整合政府、企业与社会减灾资源,系统集成区域减灾范式;建立巨灾风险转移机制,实现减灾由区域防范到全球防范的综合。     

Hot-topics and Prospects of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction: Based on 2017 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Cancun,Mexico

A brief introduction to the Fifth Session of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which was held in Cancun, Mexico, organized by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) and hosted by the Government of Mexico from 22 May to 26 May 2017, was firstly provided. Combined with “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, and related work on natural disaster risk reduction at global, regional, country and local scales, some hot-topics and prospects of global platform for disaster risk reduction were put forward. Some findings were concluded, consisting of understanding disaster risk, disaster risk governance, building and enhancing resilience to disasters, coherence between the Sendai Framework, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). Implementing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through cross-sectoral collaboration, removing barriers and promoting public-private cooperation in DRR and other types of partnership among multi-stakeholders will become the main force pattern of DRR in the near future. Large-scale disaster risk governance caused by multi-hazards (disaster cluster), disaster chain and disaster compound will be the main trend in scientific research of DRR. Building regional disaster risk reduction platform (e.g. the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21^st-Century Maritime Silk Road) and sharing the technologies and information of disaster risk reduction will be the main contents of DRR practices. Building and optimization of institutional mechanisms on DRR will be the trend of DRR idea. Improving and enhancing the support to communities, vulnerable groups and locals on DRR will be the main trend in DRR achievements’ application and demonstration in China.     

长江经济带水资源-水环境-社会经济复杂系统韧性调控模型及应用

水资源-水环境-社会经济复杂系统韧性研究是规避外来冲击和挑战、保持区域和平稳定发展的重要途径之一。借鉴投影寻踪和微分方程的思想构建了一种新的韧性调控模型,对长江经济带整体和省级尺度1999—2018年间的水资源-水环境-社会经济复杂系统韧性及其调控因素进行了评估。结果表明：长江经济带韧性水平以2011年为突变点,2011年之前较为稳定,2011年之后稳步提升;影响韧性特征的因素在江西省和云南省为自然禀赋条件,在上海市为科学技术水平和政府宏观政策,而其他地区则经历了两者之间的过渡;韧性的优控因素排序为适应性>恢复性>抵抗性,且逐渐从抵抗性转移为适应性。     

长江中下游成矿带庐枞矿集区新发现钨多金属矿床

庐枞矿集区是长江中下游成矿带内重要的铁铜矿集区,产出一系列典型的玢岩型铁矿床和斑岩型铜矿床。最近在庐枞矿集区北部东顾山地区,首次发现了钨多金属矿床,这是在长江中下游成矿带长江以北首次发现的钨矿化,为矽卡岩型。钨矿化主要呈浸染状或脉状产于东顾山岩体(黑云母花岗岩)与奥陶系(白云质灰岩)的接触带或大理岩层间破碎带中。矿石矿物主要为白钨矿及钼、铜、铅锌硫化物。钨矿化主要发育在华南地区,近年来在长江中下游成矿带的过渡带及以南的扬子地块如江南隆起等地发现多个新的大型钨矿床,但在长江以北地区一直未曾发现。庐枞矿集区北部东顾山钨矿床的发现,指明长江中下游成矿带燕山期除铁、铜大规模成矿作用以外,也有钨的成矿作用,指示该区具有良好的钨矿找矿前景。在长江中下游成矿带的其他矿集区要重视和加强钨矿化的成矿作用研究和找矿工作。     

长江中下游燕山期逆冲推覆构造及成因机制

长江中下游地区为我国著名铜、铁多金属成矿带之一.本文根据长江中下游及邻近地区构造等特征,将该区构造单元自北向南划分为华北地块、大别造山带、长江中下游前陆构造带、扬子地块、华夏地块;并进一步将长江中下游前陆构造带细分为保康-武汉-宿松-巢湖褶冲带、长江中下游中生代坳陷带、通山-瑞昌-石台-宁国褶冲带三个次级构造带.在燕山早期,长江以北的保康-武汉-宿松-巢湖褶冲带逆冲构造极性指向SE,而长江以南的通山-瑞昌-石台-宁国褶冲带逆冲构造极性指向NW.长江以南褶皱样式在岳阳-通山-瑞昌一线以南由隔挡式变为隔槽式,叠瓦式逆冲断裂更发育.在九岭-幕阜山隆起及南部的白垩纪红色盆地基底中逆冲断裂多为高角度,褶皱多为隔槽式,元古宇的浅变质岩卷入逆冲作用,为典型的厚皮构造.长江以北的紧闭同斜褶皱主体形成在印支期,随后被早燕山期的逆冲推覆作用改造.结合野外地质调查,通过对已有跨长江中下游地区的深地震剖面重新解释,发现以长江为界,长江中下游地区北侧深部、浅部构造处于耦合状态;而南侧深部、浅部构造已经脱藕,形成上下地壳的“鱼骨刺”结构,深部构造可能是是印支期扬子地块向华北地块下俯冲的残余结构.长江中下游地区浅部从北向南的逆冲作用应该与大别造山带超高压变质岩挤出有关,而从东南向北西的逆冲推覆作用可能同中侏罗世古太平洋板块向亚洲大陆俯冲有关.     

气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应——从“亚太气候(灾害)移民政策响应地区会议”看灾害移民政策的调整

简要介绍了2011年9月15～16日在菲律宾马尼拉召开的"亚太气候(灾害)移民政策响应"地区会议,并着重阐述了当前国际灾害移民领域的重要进展和发展趋向,结合气候变化背景下中国重特大自然灾害移民案例,初步提出了气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应。区分渐发性、突发性灾害,综合"自上而下"与"自下而上"的工作方式,建立"政府—企业—社区/个人"协同合作机制,形成区域内—外合作,统筹短期安置与长远发展的灾害移民政策。所提的灾害移民响应政策综合多时空、多方法、多要素,可为气候变化背景下提升中国综合灾害风险防范能力,最大限度地降低灾害损失提供重要参考。