Magsat studies over the Indian region

Data collected by Magsat have been extensively used by Indian scientists in studies of the crust beneath India. Results obtained by various workers have been summarized and the reasons for differences in findings have been discussed. It is concluded that methods that work well for higher latitudes do not give the best estimates of crustal field and magnetization in equatorial regions. A better estimate of the crustal component is obtained when the external current contribution is estimated using the symmetry properties of associatedX and Z-fields. Inversion technique that provides stable crustal magnetization in midlatitudes, becomes unstable near the equator. Why such an instability arises and how it can be circumvented are discussed. That the Peninsular shield, the Ganga basin and the Himalayas are three different geotectonic blocks is clearly reflected in the magnetization distribution. A thick magnetic crust under Aravalli, Singhbum and Dharwar suggest these areas to be comparatively stable. In general, seismic, gravity and heat flow data agree characteristically well with the magnetization estimates.     

Impact of gridpoint statistical interpolation scheme over Indian region

An analysis system experiment was conducted for the month of June 2008 with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme using NCMRWF’s (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) T254L64 model. Global analyses were carried out for all days of the month and respective forecast runs are made up to 120-hr. These analyses and forecasts are inter-compared with the operational T254L64 model outputs which uses Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) analysis scheme. The prime objective of this study is to assess the impact of GSI analysis scheme with special emphasis on Indian summer monsoon as compared to SSI.     

Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over Indian region

India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar observations. Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila et al. (Weather Forecast 23:233–245, 2008) has been examined over the Indian region using Infrared Channel \((10.8~\upmu \hbox {m})\) of INSAT-3D for prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In this technique, the current location and intensity in terms of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) of the MCS are extrapolated. The purpose of this study is to validate this satellite-based nowcasting technique for Convective Cloud Clusters that helps in optimum utilization of satellite data and improve the nowcasting. The model could predict reasonably the minimum CTBT of the convective cell with average absolute error (AAE) of \({<}7\hbox { K}\) for different lead periods (30–180 min). However, it was underestimated for all the lead periods of forecasts. The AAE in the forecasts of size of the cluster varies from about \(3\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 30-min forecast to \(7\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 120-min forecast. The mean absolute error in prediction of size is above 31–38% of actual size for different lead periods of forecasts from 30 to 180 min. There is over estimation in prediction of size for 30 and 60 min forecasts (17% and 2.6% of actual size of the cluster, respectively) and underestimation in 90 to 180-min forecasts (–2.4% to –28%). The direct position error (DPE) based on the location of minimum CTBT ranges from 70 to 144 km for 30–180-min forecast respectively.     

Assessment of the seasonal variation of simulated Wyrtki jet over the tropical Indian Ocean in CMIP5 models

Performances of the 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating the Wyrtki Jet over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated, and the results show large diversity in the simulated current intensity at seasonal timescale. These coupled models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed Wyrtki Jet, the central equatorial region. The simulated seasonal variations of Wyrtki Jet are also reproduced quantitatively, though the simulated amplitudes from CMIP5 models are quite spread among the CMIP5 models. Compared with the observation, some coupled models are not able to present the evolution of Wyrtki Jet in fall season and the decay phase has been postponed 1 month later. Further diagnostic illustrates that the simulated surface zonal wind has remarkable impact on the evolution of Wyrtki Jet in fall season over the tropical Indian Ocean. This study also points out that there is a common problem in these models that most of them present 1-month delayed Wyrtki Jets peak time than the normal climatological condition along the center equatorial Indian Ocean.     

Sub-seasonal scale fluctuations of theITCZ over the Indo-Pacific region during the summer monsoon season. Part I: Features over the Indian region

Monex-79 andISMEX-73 data have been analysed to study the sub-seasonal scale fluctuation of near equatorial oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the North Indian ocean during the summer monsoon of 1979 and 1973. The oceanicITCZ is characterised by a narrow shear zone between the equatorial westerlies and the tropical easterlies, associated with organised convective clouds. Synoptic analysis presented in this paper shows the steady northward propagation of the oceanicITCZ from its near equatorial position (5–10°N) to the continental position (20–25°N) during the onset and mid-season revivals of monsoon after breaks. The northward propagation is initiated by the strengthening of the equatorial westerlies which result in the intensification of the shear zone and the embedded disturbances. The establishment of the northward propagating mode near normal monsoon trough position over the continent characterises the active phase of monsoon. As the monsoon cycles from active to weak/break phase, the monsoon trough (continentalITCZ) dissipates near the foothills of the Himalayas and the oceanicITCZ gets emphasised once again near the equatorial region. The major phase changes in theITCZ occur at an interval of about 30–50 days which dominantly control the intra-seasonal fluctuation of the Indian summer monsoon. The paper also discusses the characteristic features of the oceanicITCZ during different phases of the monsoon.     

An efficient optimum interpolation scheme for objective analysis over Indian region

In the optimum interpolation scheme, the weights for the observations are computed by solving a set of linear equations for every grid point. As the number of observations increases particularly over data-rich regions, the matrix dimension increases and the computer time required to solve these equations to determine weights increases considerably. In order to reduce the computer time for computing the weights, Tanguay and Robert suggested schemes in which the gaussian function representing the autocorrelation function has been approximated by a second-order and also by a fourth-order Taylor series expansion. This resulted in the solution of matrices of order 4 or 9 respectively to obtain weighting functions irrespective of the number of observations used in the analysis. In the present study, the analyses of mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 700 mbar level have been carried out for five days using the above two schemes and the regular OI scheme. The analyses are found to be similar in all the three cases suggesting that a lot of computer time could be saved without sacrificing the analysis accuracy by using the modified scheme in which the second-order approximation is utilized.     

Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of surface winds over the Indian monsoon region

The role of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in modulating synoptic and interannual variations of surface winds over the Indian monsoon region is studied using daily averaged National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses for the period 1987–1996. Two dominant ISOs are found in all years, with a period between 30–60 days and 10–20 days respectively. Although the ISOs themselves explain only about 10–25% of the daily variance, the spatial structure of variance of the ISOs is found to be nearly identical to that of high frequency activity (synoptic disturbances), indicating a significant control by the ISOs in determining the synoptic variations. Zonal and meridional propagation characteristics of the two modes and their interannual variability are studied in detail. The synoptic structure of the 30–60 day mode is similar in all years and is shown to be intimately related to the strong (‘active’) or weak (‘break’) phases of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The peak (trough) phase of the mode in the north Bay of Bengal corresponds to the ‘active’ (‘break’) phase of monsoon strengthening (weakening) the entire large scale monsoon circulation. The ISOs modulate synoptic activity through the intensification or weakening of the large scale monsoon flow (monsoon trough). The peak wind anomalies associated with these ISOs could be as large as 30% of the seasonal mean winds in many regions. The vorticity pattern associated with the 30–60 day mode has a bi-modal meridional structure similar to the one associated with the seasonal mean winds but with a smaller meridional scale. The spatial structure of the 30–60 day mode is consistent with fluctuations of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ) between one continental and an equatorial Indian Ocean position. The 10–20 day mode has maximum amplitude in the north Bay of Bengal, where it is comparable to that of the 30–60 day mode. Elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, this mode is almost always weaker than the 30–60 day mode. In the Bay of Bengal region, the wind curl anomalies associated with the peak phases of the ISOs could be as large as 50% of the seasonal mean wind curl. Hence, ISOs in this region could drive significant ISOs in the ocean and might influence the seasonal mean currents in the Bay. On the interannual time scale, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed wind stress is compared with the Florida State University monthly mean stress. The seasonal mean stress as well as interannual standard deviation of monthly stress from the two analyses agree well, indicating absence of any serious systematic bias in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed winds. It is also found that the composite structure of the 30–60 day mode is strikingly similar to the dominant mode of interannual variability of the seasonal mean winds indicating a strong link between the ISOs and the seasonal mean. The ISO influences the seasonal mean and its interannual variability either through increased/decreased residence time of the TCZ in the continental position or through occurrence of stronger/weaker active/break spells. Thus, the ISOs seem to modulate all variability in this region from synoptic to interannual scales.     

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998–2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5-USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June–July–August–September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS.     

Ozone trends in the vertical structure of Upper Troposphere and Lower stratosphere over the Indian monsoon region

Ozone trends in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere over the Indian region are investigated using three satellite data sets namely Halogen Occultation Experiment (1993–2005), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (1993–2005) II, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2005–2011). Estimated ozone trends using multi-variate regression analysis are compared with trends at two Indian ozonesonde stations (Delhi, 28°N, 77°E and Pune, 18°N, 73°E), and a 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM, SLIMCAT) for the 1993–2005 time period. Overall, all the observational data sets and model simulations indicate significant increasing trend in the upper troposphere (0–2.5 %/year). In the lower stratosphere, estimated trends are slightly positive up to 30 mb and are negative between 30 and 10 mb. Increasing trends in the upper troposphere is probably due to increasing trends in the tropospheric ozone precursor gases (e.g. CO, NO _x , NMHCs). Here, we argue that these contrasting ozone-trend profiles might be partially responsible for insignificant long-term trends in the tropical total column ozone. On seasonal scale, positive trends are observed during all the seasons in the upper troposphere while structure of trend profile varies in lower stratosphere. Seasonal variations of ozone trends and its linkages with stratospheric intrusions and increasing trends in lightning flashes in the troposphere are also discussed.     

Layered clouds in the Indian monsoon region

Contrary to the prevalent belief that tropical region is characterized by convective clouds rather than by layer clouds, we have suggested that deep convective clouds occur on meso-scale, but layer clouds occur on larger synoptic-scale with a relatively small region of deep convective clouds. Sustenance of deep convective clouds is inhibited by the presence of inertio-gravity waves, which have alternating layers of upward and downward motion in the vertical. We have also shown that inertio-gravity waves generate regions of relatively strong horizontal velocity, vertically separated by layers of relatively weak horizontal velocity. Layers of strong horizontal velocity are created by inertio-gravity wave system through convergence of vertical flux of horizontal momentum. We have also suggested that horizontal convergence/divergence of moisture flux is generated by inertio-gravity waves, giving rise to vertically alternating layers of high/low humidity, and visible or sub-visible clouds. Layers of high humidity become layers of strong radar reflectivity at frequency of 53 MHz at which MST Radar at Gadanki, near Tirupati, India, operates. These observations, more than 2,50,000 in number, for vertical grid points, spread over all the months of the year, have helped us, among other observations, to arrive at these conclusions. Further, the analysis suggests that the main source of strong MST radar reflectivity is not mechanical turbulence as is commonly believed.     

The use and performance of mesoscale models over the Indian region for two high-impact events

High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related disasters. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for research and operational usage. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Considerable variability in the prediction of the intensity and location of mesoscale heavy rainfall, as well as in the intensity and path of the super-cyclone, are found. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary conditions and availability of data on land–ocean surface processes are tuned separately to the specific event types, such as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling such types of events may require suitable treatments for their proper simulations through appropriate dynamics, physics and resolution.     

Trends and the pole tide in Indian tidegauge records

This paper studies tidegauge records of stations on the Indian coastline. An analysis of trends did not reveal a monotonie trend. Trends were seen for limited periods at only five of the eight stations on the Indian coast. A spectral analysis of annual records produced evidence of long period cycles with shorter cycles riding on them. The shorter cycles had a period of 5.0 years. The spectra of monthly records revealed evidence of a pole tide and an annual cycle. The amplitude of the pole tide was estimated to be around 7.5 mm. This was larger than the equilibrium tide. A spectral analysis of monthly rainfall at Bombay, a station on the Indian west coast, also showed a 13.9 month cycle and a (3,1,0) autoregressive model. But the coherence between monthly rainfall and relative sealevel fluctuations was low.     

Improving the performance of precipitation outputs from Global Climate Models to predict monthly and seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent

Skilful prediction of the monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over India at a smaller spatial scale is a major challenge for the scientific community. The present study is aimed at achieving this objective by hybridising two mathematical techniques, namely synthetic superensemble (SSE) and supervised principal component regression (SPCR) on six state-of-the art Global Climate Models (GCMs). The performance of the mathematical model is evaluated using correlation analysis, the root mean square error, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index. Results feature reasonable improvement over central India, which is a zone of maximum rainfall activity in the summer monsoon season. The study also highlights improvement in the monthly prediction of rainfall over raw GCMs (15–20% improvement) with exceptional improvement in July. The developed model is also examined for anomalous years of monsoon and it is found that the model is able to capture the signs of anomalies over different gridpoints of the Indian domain.     

An atmospheric instability derived with MODIS profile using real-time direct broadcast data over the Indian region

In this study, assessing the atmospheric instability, a new index, named here as MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) profile index (MPI), has been statistically computed using temperature and moisture profile data from the real-time direct broadcast receiving systems installed at three places of India Meteorological Department. The training dataset has been prepared using MODIS temperature and moisture profile from the Aqua and Terra satellites over the Indian region for clear and convective weather conditions during the period of March to June 2011. The MPI values are produced at 5?×?5?km pixel resolution when at least 6 out of 9 FOVs from MODIS granules are found cloud free. If more than 3 FOVs are cloudy, the MPI has not been computed. The formulation of MPI and its comparison have been examined with well-established traditionally used K index, Lifted Index and total totals index derived from radiosonde profiles of temperature, pressure and humidity. It has been observed that in most of the cases, MPI has well correlated with those derived from ground truth observations. Therefore, spatially interpolated MPI can be utilized as an indicator for regional and location-specific forecast over the areas where radiosonde data are not available. The results also indicated that MPI can be used as a sensitive measure in very early stages of instability developments such as thunderstorm and rainfall because no other single stability index can provide a distinct threshold value for these events. Therefore, a single MPI value at a certain threshold can be treated as a stability index instead of other available indices. It is also being proposed that the inclusion of MPI as a stability parameter in physical or numerical modeling can improve accurate local severe storm predictions as a useful predictor and can also be used as diagnostic tools. The MPI can make a useful simulation using entire temperature and moisture profile data for the assessment of instability significantly to severe weather forecasting since other instability indices are often derived from a fixed pressure level quantity of vertical profile parameters.     

Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors

Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions.It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none’. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts.     

Migration of the dip equator in the Indian region

The position of the dip equator (de) is worked out in the Indian region based on fairly close geomagnetic measurements made during a survey in the year 1981. Thede is located about 24 km south of its 1971 position along the 77·5°E meridian. Also, thede positions for the epochs 1971 and 1981 show closeness on the east coast of India when compared to its west coast positions. Thede positions inferred from the repeat observations since 1909 are used for estimating the pattern of migration and the results are discussed.     

中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析

利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些.     

Improvement in predictability of waves over the Indian Ocean

Accurate prediction of ocean surface waves is a challenging task with many associated difficulties. Availability of good quality wind and wave information from satellite platforms inspired the scientific community to assimilate such data in various spectral wave models for enhancing the accuracy of prediction. Over the Indian Ocean, which is the region of interest for the present study, wave heights in extreme situation can go up to 12–14 m, thereby increasing the probability of coastal hazards. This region is further governed by the southern ocean swells that propagate thousands of kilometers. These are, in general, not well captured by the spectral wave models. Therefore, assimilation of altimeter data in open ocean wave model WAM has been attempted with the aim of enhancing the quality of prediction of significant wave height. Further, simulated wave spectra have been assimilated in a coastal wave model SWAN. This assimilation has been found to significantly improve the prediction of the height of wind waves as well as swell waves. V. Bhatt and S. Surendran are former students of Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad.