菏泽市紫外线辐射变化特征及月预报方程

利用2008年4月至2012年12月菏泽市紫外线观测资料以及地面常规气象观测资料和空气质量资料,分析了该地区太阳紫外线辐射的变化特征及其与各因子的相关关系,并建立逐月预报方程。结果表明:菏泽紫外线辐射年总量达到187.98 W/m2,春夏两季明显高于秋冬两季,5月达到全年的最大值,1月为全年的最小值;3~9月紫外线辐射极大值均可达到5级,其他月份均可达到4级。不同天气条件下紫外线辐射强度存在明显差异,其中晴天紫外线辐射强且稳定,呈抛物线变化;多云天紫外线辐射波动较大,时强时弱;阴天紫外线辐射相对较弱。紫外线辐射强度与风速、能见度、气温呈正相关,与总云量、低云量、相对湿度呈负相关,与SO2、PM10、NO2、PM2.5多呈负相关。基于多元线性回归分析向后剔除变量方法得出的逐月预报方程,经检验总体预报效果较好,对当地紫外线等级预报工作具有参考意义。     

石家庄市紫外线与气象因子的相关分析及等级预报方程的建立

通过对2005年1月至2007年12月石家庄市3a来紫外线实况资料和地面常规观测资料的分析,发现紫外线强度与中午时段的能见度、相对湿度、总云量、低云量、气温、风速6个气象因子有密切关系,其中,它与总云量的关系最为密切,其次是相对湿度。紫外线与相对湿度、总云量、低云量为负相关;紫外线与风速、气温、能见度呈正相关,并且在不同的月份与气温的相关性有明显的变化。利用多元回归分析方法,得出紫外线等级预报方程,为紫外线的预报提供了指导意义。     

龙川县气温预报方法的建立与应用

利用龙川站2008-2012年地面观测资料、欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用常规统计预报方法（逐步回归）,将最高（低）气温实况作为预报对象,把可能影响气温变化的气象要素作为预报因子,分月建立未来24～ 72 h最高（低）气温的MOS预报方程,通过对2013年全年的检验预报表明：未来24～72 h最高（低）气温预报平均绝对误差均在2.0℃以内.     

大连市紫外线辐射强度分析和预报方法研究

利用大连市2007年8月至2008年8月逐日紫外线观测资料,分析了紫外线辐射季、月和日变化特征及其与相关气象要素的关系。结果表明：大连市紫外线辐射强度具有明显的季节变化,夏季最大,春季次之,冬季最小。各季节紫外线辐射强度的日变化同位相,均为正午呈大致对称分布。无论何季节,日照总时数、14时能见度和太阳高度角均为影响大连市紫外线辐射强度的关键因素。同时,详细分析了雾对辐射强度的影响。并运用逐步回归方法,求得各季节紫外线辐射强度的预报方程,实现了预报的定量化。     

都江堰紫外辐射特征分析及多元回归预报 方程的建立研究

利用2017年9月1日—2018年8月31日都江堰紫外辐射(UV-AB)的观测数据,分析了都江堰紫外辐射的变化特征及其与气象要素的相关性,并通过多元回归分析建立了都江堰紫外辐射辐照度预报方程。结果表明:都江堰的紫外辐照度具有明显的日变化、月变化、季节变化特征,辐照度主要受云、水汽和太阳高度角等的影响。全年最大日平均辐照度为55.84 W/m~2,最小日平均辐照度为2.39 W/m~2。全年10—15时平均紫外辐照度与14时总云量、10—15时最低相对湿度、10—15时最高气温分别呈负相关、负相关、正相关,相关系数分别为-0.60、-0.67、0.63。春、夏、秋、冬季的10—15时平均紫外辐照度预报方程均通过显著性水平α=0.05的F检验,调整后的R~2分别为0.84、0.78、0.82、0.78。方程平均偏差为2.61～5.02 W/m~2,标准误差为3.24～6.57 W/m~2。秋季预测值准确度最高,夏季最低。     

库尔勒市霜冻特征及其驱动力分析

利用库尔勒市气象局2003—2012年春、秋季最低地面温度、最低气温、云量、风速和海平面气压等气象要素资料,分析该地区的霜冻特征以及最低地面气温和其它气象要素之间的关系,结果表明:(1)库尔勒市霜冻主要出现时段为10月、11月以及次年的3月;(2)最低气温与最低地面温度之差介于-3～8℃,其中在3～5℃之间占总数的72.5%;(3)当08时海平面气压低于1015 hPa时,发生霜冻的概率仅为4.8%;气压超过1025 hPa时,出现霜冻的概率达84.7%;(4)通过最低气温、云量和风速建立的最低地面气温预报方程,分别对最低地面温度和霜冻做出预报,其中最低地面温度预报的准确率在70.7%～83.5%之间,霜冻预报的准确率为89.9%,效果良好。     

长春市紫外线指数预报方法

通过对2001～2005年长春市紫外线观测资料的分析,得出紫外线强度与总云量、日平均气温有很好的关系,利用2001～2005年紫外线强度的观测资料和同期气象资料,利用回归分析建立了紫外线强度预报方法。     

宁波市紫外辐射分布特征及强度预报服务技术研究

利用2010—2015年宁波市紫外辐射强度资料、常规气象观测资料以及大气环境资料,分析宁波市紫外辐射强度的日、月、季节、年际变化规律及其与气象和环境条件的相关性,并对到达地表的紫外辐射与大气上界的太阳总辐射的比值η'进行逐步回归,建立η'的预报方程,最后利用辐射传输公式计算出到达地面的紫外辐射强度。预报方程充分考虑了太阳高度角,以及温度、降水、水汽、能见度等气象要素对紫外辐射的影响。并将统计方法与本地气候特征相结合,增加了气候特征判据。经检验,预报紫外线等级正确率为53. 2%,相差1级的占34. 5%,优于主观预报,能够提高现有的紫外线等级预报准确率。最后,提出一种适合本地的紫外线等级划分标准,并根据冬半年和夏半年分别制定相应的防御建议。     

北京地区紫外线观测与预报系统

通过对1999－2000年紫外线观测资料的分析，得出紫外线强度与天顶距、总云量、低云量有很好的关系，并利用1999－2000年紫外线强度的观测资料和同期气象资料，利用统计学方法研制了紫外线强度预报方法，并建立了紫外线预报服务系统。     

昆明市花粉过敏症预报试验

通过对昆明城区和郊区2000-2001年花粉观测资料的分析,发现一年中花粉浓度有明显的周期性和季节性。分析了气象要素与空气中飘移花粉的相关关系。在此基础上,利用统计方法,找出了与花粉过敏症相关好的气象因子,建立了花粉过敏症的预报方程;应用医院花粉过敏症的发病率进行验证,同时利用气温、风速、相对湿度对预报值加以订正,使预报结果更接近实际。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.