Seismicity of western Macedonia, Greece

The seismicity of western Macedonia is examined in the present paper. On the basis of historical information as well as on instrumental data it is found that this area is characterized by low seismicity. The focal region of the Grevena-Kozani 1995 earthquake exhibits the highest seismicity in terms of probabilities for the generation of strong (M_s ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in a period of fifty years. Two other regions with relatively high seismicity were also distinguished (west of Edessa and around Prespes lakes). Accurate determination of focal parameters of all earthquakes occurred in the area during October 1975-April 1995, by the use of a 3-D crustal model shows that the seismic activity is related to the graben structures of the studied area. Finally, evidence is presented that the triggering of the 1995 earthquake may be related to the impoundment of the Polyfytos artificial lake.     

Daily precipitation variability in semiarid agricultural regions in Macedonia,Greece

Abstract

The spatio-temporal variability of daily precipitation series was investigated in a semiarid region of central Macedonia in northern Greece, Ten years of daily rainfall records for seven stations in the region constituted the data base. The spatial characteristics were examined by drawing composite correlation diagrams for the cool (October-March) season and the warm (April-September) season, and the results confirmed the regional homogeneity of the data sets. Furthermore, the temporal analysis indicated that the non-rainy days constituted the major portion of days throughout the year at all the stations. Similarly, light rainfall represented the majority of rainy days. Moreover, the annual rainfall variation showed high values in March, April and November with low values occurring in the summer and autumn. A sharp increase of rainfall between the 185th and the 195th day of the year must be taken into account when the harvest is scheduled. Harmonic and Power Spectrum analyses applied to the annual variation of rain depths using 5-day intervals revealed significant periodicities of 26, 122, 365 and 55 days. Finally the analysis of the annual variation of rain occurrences. revealed periodicities of 365 and 122 days.     

Comparative analysis of the seismic risk in sites of different seismicity

Four sites (a, b, c, d) are considered of differing seismicity. The calculations, for two different buildings on each site, consisted of:

• 1. The total monetary cost as a function of the design seismic coefficient c.
• 2. The marginal cost of a saved life, ΔD/ΔL, also depending on c.
• 3. The ratios between the design seismic coefficients in the various sites, c_d/c_a, c_d/c_b, c_d/c_c, that lead to the same marginal cost ΔD/ΔL in all sites.

The marginal cost ΔD/ΔL turns out to be highly sensitive to uncertainties, but the other ratios are scarcely influenced by the uncertainties met in analysing the problem. This would suggest the adoption of a rationalized principle for comparing the levels of severity in the Codes for sites with differing degrees of seismicity. If a criterion for evaluating indirect cost due to damage or collapse is fixed for each building and each site the values of c corresponding to minimum monetary cost are not strongly influenced by the said uncertainties. This would make it possible to look into the problem of the minimum levels of severity in the Codes. Of course, this assumes that the levels of severity should always be higher than those corresponding to the minimum monetary cost.     

Curie Point Depths of Macedonia and Thrace, N. Greece

—?The aeromagnetic data of Macedonia and Thrace were used to produce Curie point estimates. The data were high pass filtered to remove components arising from topography and magnetic core fields which were not adequately modeled by a DGRF. The depth to the centroid, z ₀, of the deepest distribution of the magnetic dipoles was obtained by computing a least-squares fit to the lowest-frequency segment of the azimuthally averaged log power spectrum. The average depth to the top of the deepest crustal block was computed as the depth to the top, z _t , of the second lowest-frequency segment of the spectrum. The depth to the bottom of the deepest magnetic dipoles, the inferred Curie point depth, was then calculated from z _b =2z _0???z _t . The Curie depth estimates for Macedonia and Thrace range between 11.2 and 17.3?km. These results are consistent with the depths inferred by extrapolating known geothermal gradient and heat-flow values.     

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.     

Microearthquake seismicity and active tectonics of northwestern Greece

We carried out a microearthquake survey lasting for six weeks in northwest Greece using 18 portable seismograph stations to examine a region in which normal and thrust faulting have been reported in close proximity to one another. With this array we located 148 events and determined fault plane solutions for eight events using only rays radiated upwards. The seismicity of the region is diffuse with events extending to depths of nearly 30 km, and there is a minimum in activity near a depth of 15 km. The fault plane solutions exhibit a wide spectrum of fault types and orientations and are not consistent with simple zones of shortening or extension. Neither tractions applied to the edges or bottom of the region nor deviatoric stresses that compensate for lateral variations in crustal thickness can account for the variety of fault plane solutions. We think that the complicated behavior is a manifestation of inhomogeneous deformation due, at least in part, to a pre-existing complicated juxtaposition of structures and formations.     

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg,South Africa

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.     

The pliocene volcanism of the voras Mts (Central Macedonia,Greece)

Major element chemistry, K/Ar ages and trace element data are reported for volcanic rocks from the Voras volcanic complex of Central Macedonia (Greece). Petrological data show that the Voras volcanic rocks consist essentially of intermediate members of the high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic series, the most abundant rock types being high-K andesites and dacites, latites and trachytes. K/Ar ages determined on selected samples show values ranging between 5.0 and 1.8 m.y., indicating that the Voras volcanism was active from Pliocene up to the Lower Pleistocene. The high Th, Hf, Ba and LREE shown by some representative samples together with their strongly fractionated light and heavy REE patterns and the absence of significant negative Eu anomalies indicate a magma genesis by low degrees of partial melting of a source enriched in large ion lithophile elements, leaving a garnet-bearing and plagioclase-free residue. This source is believed to be represented by a mantle garnet peridotite enriched in incompatible elements. The geotectonic significance of the K-rich volcanism of the Voras area is discussed within the general framewoek of the late Tertiary tectonic evolution of the Aegean area and its emplacement is related to the distension tectonic movements which have affected the boundary area between the Macedonian microplate and the European craton since the Neogene.     

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Introduction Strong and large earthquakes are prepared and generated on specific segments of active fault zones, especially on the asperity parts of the zones (Aki, 1984; Wiemer, Wyss, 1997; Wyss, et al, 2000). Therefore, both the faulting-behavior identification and the rupture segmentation mainly based on the method of active tectonics are always important aspects in active fault research (DING, et al, 1993). The purposes of the two aspects of research focus on determining fault units tha…     

Drainage basins as process-response systems: An example from Central Macedonia,North Greece

Study of two subareas of the same large basin in North Greece determined that differences in processes and form exist between the two subareas. These differences were brought on by man's interference upon one of the subareas. In area A, seminatural vegetation promotes throughflow and protects the surface from overland flow. Hence, natural erosion takes place primarily by channel deepening and infall of side slopes into the channels. In area B, clearing of the seminatural vegetation and the improper ploughing for cultivation increases the overland flow which promotes slope erosion but the augmented debris supply has checked channel erosion. These processes change the form of the drainage basins of the area.     

Gravity anomaly, lithospheric structure and seismicity of Western Himalayan Syntaxis

A compiled gravity anomaly map of the Western Himalayan Syntaxis is analysed to understand the tectonics of the region around the epicentre of Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005 (Mw = 7.6). Isostatic gravity anomalies and effective elastic thickness (EET) of lithosphere are assessed from coherence analysis between Bouguer anomaly and topography. The isostatic residual gravity high and gravity low correspond to the two main seismic zones in this region, viz. Indus–Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) and Hindu Kush Seismic Zones (HKSZ), respectively, suggesting a connection between siesmicity and gravity anomalies. The gravity high originates from the high-density thrusted rocks along the syntaxial bend of the Main Boundary Thrust and coincides with the region of the crustal thrust earthquakes, including the Kashmir earthquake of 2005. The gravity low of HKSZ coincides with the region of intermediate–deep-focus earthquakes, where crustal rocks are underthrusting with a higher speed to create low density cold mantle. Comparable EET (∼55 km) to the focal depth of crustal earthquakes suggests that whole crust is seismogenic and brittle. An integrated lithospheric model along a profile provides the crustal structure of the boundary zones with crustal thickness of about 60 km under the Karakoram–Pamir regions and suggests continental subduction from either sides (Indian and Eurasian) leading to a complex compressional environment for large earthquakes.     

Current seismic quiescence in Greece: Implications for seismic hazard

Based on previous observations of the phenomenon of precursory seismic quiescence before crustal main shocks and recent results that indicate an increase in the occurrence of main shocks in the next years, we focus this study on the detection of the seismic quiescence situation in Greece in the beginning of 1999. We use the declustered seismicity catalogue of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens (NOA) from 1968–1998, to investigate the significance of seismic quiescence for the region 19^°–29^°E and 34^°–42^°N. We searched for seismicity rate changes at every node of the grid by a moving time window and we present the results for the beginning of 1999. The results map four (4) areas having a quiescence which duration ranges from 3.8 to6 years in the beginning of 1999. Three of these areas have been devestated by catastrophic earthquakes 17–21 years ago and significant quiescence also preceded those main shocks. Based on these results, an estimate of the future seismic hazard of these areas is made.     

Historical seismicity and deformation rates in the Indian Peninsular Shield

Seismic strain rates for the entire Indian Peninsular Shield are estimatedfrom the available historical and recently observed seismicity data fromthe last 199 years (1800–1998). Typical strain rates ranging from10^-13 to 10^-8 per year have been calculated for differentregions of Peninsular India by using Anderson's (1979) method andanalysis. A correlation between the seismically deforming zones and highheat flow areas has been observed. The deformation zones are divided intotwo classes, with low and high deformation zones of Cratons and Mobilebelts with further sub-divisions. Seismo-tectonics of the SouthernPeninsular India is also discussed in the light of recent occurrence ofthe disastrous earthquakes of Killari (September 29, 1993) and Jabalpur(May 21, 1997).     

Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia

A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.     

The March 2004 Kalamata seismic sequence: a case of efficient seismicity monitoring in the area of Peloponnese,southern Greece,by the Tripoli Seismic Array

On March 1, 2004, a moderate earthquake occurred in the vicinity of the town of Kalamata, southern Peloponnese, Greece. The Tripoli Seismic Array (TRISAR), located in the centre of Peloponnese, recorded the mainshock as well as the large number of aftershocks that followed. Only a small number of these events were located by regional seismographic networks. Analysis of the Kalamata seismic sequence and evaluation of the results is presented in this article, as an example of the efficiency of TRISAR in seismicity monitoring and location in the area of Peloponnese.     

The present-day seismicity variations in the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic zone

This study is concerned with seismicity variations in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands for the period 1962–2009; the effects of large earthquakes on the seismicity of adjacent areas are taken into account. The 1997 Kronotskii earthquake was followed by seismicity decreases in most areas over Kamchatka, which is presumably related to decreased tectonic stresses. After the 2007 Simushir earthquake synchronization and periodicities in seismicity were identified, indicating increased instabilities and the likelihood of a large event in Kamchatka in the near future. The instability of seismic regions is discussed within the framework of the theory of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. We suggest successive phases in the occurrence of seismological precursors.     

Historical seismicity of the southeastern Caribbean and tectonic implications

We have relocated the twenty-eight largest magnitude (4.3M _s 7.3) historical (1922–1963) earthquakes of the southeastern Caribbean. We also present new focal mechanisms for seven of these events. The relocations are based on reported ISSP andS arrival times that we analyzed using generalized linear inversion techniques. The new focal mechanisms were constrained by first motionP polarities as reported by the ISS and as picked by us where records were available, and by the polarities and ratios ofSH andsSH, andSV andsSV arrivals that we determined from seismograms. The results of the relocations are commensurate with the distribution of seismicity observed in the recent era: hypocenters are shallow and intermediate in depth (0–200 km), and the events occur almost exclusively in areas known to be currently seismic. The frequent seismic activity in the vicinity of the Paria Peninsula, Venezuela, is clearly a persistent feature of the regional earthquake pattern; intermediate depth earthquakes indicative of subduction beneath the Caribbean plate occur here and along the Lesser Antilles arc. The Grenadines seismic gap is confirmed as an area of low seismic moment release throughout the historical era. Trinidad and the eastern Gulf of Paria were also largely quiescent.The new focal mechanisms, despite being a sparse data set, give significant insight into both subduction processes along the Lesser Antilles arc and into the shallow deformation of the Caribbean-South America plate boundary zone. The largest earthquake to have occurred in this region, the 19 March 1953 event (M _m =7.01), is a Lesser Antilles slab deformation event, and another earthquake in this region of the Lesser Antilles is probably a rarely-observed interplate thrust event. Shallow deformation in the plate boundary zone is complex and, near the Paria Penninsula, involves mixed southeastward thrusting and dextral strike-slip on east-striking faults, and secondarily, normal faulting. Bending of the subducting Atlantic-South American plate also seems to generate seisms. The rather high ratio of intraplate deformation to interplate deformation observed along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the more recent era seems to have been operative in the historical era as well.     

Evidence for induced seismicity in the vicinity of Fierza reservoir,Northern Albania

The reservoir of Fierza on the Drini River, Northern Albania, is Albania's largest reservoir and it is one of the world's largest reservoirs of high dams (reservoir volume at maximum water level, 2.8 * 10⁹ m³; dam height, 167 m and dam capacity 8 * 10⁶ m³). We compare pre-and postimpounding seismicity of the area surrounding the Fierza reservoir. An increase of seismic microactivity was observed after the impounding of the reservoir. More than 300 microearthquakes, occurred in the immediate vicinity of the main body of the reservoir, with local magnitude ranging between 1.3 and 3.6. A significant change of theb value in the magnitude-frequency relationship was observed. One swarm of microtremors occurred in the northern part of the reservoir on April 4–5, 1981, where an alteration of the tensor of natural tectonic stresses is revealed. The theoretical additional stress and displacement induced by water-load in the bank of the reservoir were estimated for four cross-profiles of the reservoir area and the maximum values resulted near the location of the above swarm.     

Faulting, shallow seismicity and seismic hazard analysis for the Costa Rican Central Valley

Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km² and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.