Climate warming alters thermal stability but not stratification phenology in a small north‐temperate lake

Recent climate change represents one of the most serious anthropogenic threats to lake ecosystems in Canada. As meteorological and hydrological conditions are altered by climate change, so too are physical, chemical and biological properties of lakes. The ability to quantify the impact of climate change on the physical properties of lakes represents an integral step in estimating future chemical and biological change. To that end, we have used the dynamic reservoir simulation model, a one‐dimensional vertical heat transfer and mixing model, to hindcast and compare lake temperature‐depth profiles against 30 years of long‐term monitoring data in Harp Lake, Ontario. These temperature profiles were used to calculate annual (June–September) thermal stability values from 1979 to 2009. Comparisons between measured and modelled lake water temperature and thermal stability over three decades showed strong correlation (r² > 0.9). However, despite significant increases in modelled thermal stability over the 30 year record, we found no significant change in the timing of the onset, breakdown or the duration of thermal stratification. Our data suggest that increased air temperature and decreased wind are the primary drivers of enhanced stability in Harp Lake since 1979. The high‐predictive ability of the Harp Lake dynamic reservoir simulation model suggests that its use as a tool in future lake management projects is appropriate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A coupled physical-biochemical lake model for forecasting water quality

A new one-dimensional numerical model that includes physical and biochemical processes has been developed. The biochemical processes, influenced by the lake dynamics, are required for forecasting water quality. The model is used to investigate the effects of different internal restoration measures, such as artificial mixing, input of oxygen and drainage of deep water.The model is applied to the Northern Basin of Lake Lugano, a Swiss-Italian border lake. The lake is highly eutrophic and chemically stratified throughout the year. The model was calibrated over one year and validated over a period of several years. The results agree well with the measured data. The coupled model reproduces the observed depth dependency of conductivity even during long simulation times. Due to the predominant mixing, decoupled physical models cannot maintain such gradients. The forecasting capabilities of the model are demonstrated for different case studies. The impact of restoration measures on water quality is rather small. Best results are achieved by reducing the external nutrient loading. Caution is recommended for internal measures as these have to be studied in greater detail.     

Modelling hydrodynamics in Yachiyo Lake using a non‐hydrostatic general circulation model with spatially and temporally varying meteorological conditions

In this study, a three‐dimensional (3D) non‐hydrostatic circulation model was applied to study the thermal structure, its evolution and water circulation of Yachiyo Lake in Hiroshima, Japan. The simulations were conducted for 1 month during July 2006. The meteorological forcing variables such as wind stress, surface atmospheric pressure and heat flux transfer through the lake surface were provided by an atmospheric mesoscale model run. The vertical mixing process of the lake was calculated using the Mellor‐Yamada turbulence model. The 1‐month numerical simulation revealed the wind‐induced currents of the lake, two gyres in the mid‐layer, and depth‐averaged monthly mean currents. Further numerical experiments studying the mechanism of the two gyres in the lake showed the important role of topography in gyre formation. The thermal structure of the lake and its evolution both in space and in time as predicted by the model showed very good agreement with the observed values and characteristics of Yachiyo Lake. The internal gravity waves, which are crucial for mixing in the stratified lake, are depicted by the vertical fluctuation of isotherms. Using the non‐dimensional gradient Richardson number, Yachiyo Lake was determined to be stable under strong stratification during the study period, and therefore very sensitive to wind stress. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of different operational modes on the flood‐induced turbidity current of a canyon‐shaped reservoir: case study on Liuxihe Reservoir,South China

Suspended matter is an important indicator of water quality in freshwater systems. The flood‐induced turbidity current plays a dominant role in the seasonal dynamic of suspended matter in the Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45′50″N; 113°46′52″E), a large, stratified reservoir at the Tropic of Cancer in southern China. Field measurements show that loading and distribution of suspended matter in the reservoir differ in typical wet, dry and medium years, as a result of different discharge volumes and water level variation patterns. Using historical data and the practical demand for water supply and flood control, we generalized two feasible reservoir operational modes: flood impounding mode (drawing down the reservoir to a low level before flood events to impound inflow during the flooding season) and moderate level change mode (drawing down the reservoir to a moderate level before flood events, then keeping the level within the flood control level during runoff events). To examine the effects of different operational modes and outlet depths on the reservoir's flood‐induced turbidity current, a numerical simulation model was applied in three types of hydrological conditions. The results show that the mode with moderate drawdown and recharge processes can decrease loading of suspended matter in spring and promote turbidity current release during flood events, and upper withdrawal can improve the effects of turbid water release. We suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality management in the reservoir operation stage, severe artificial water level fluctuation being avoided and selective withdrawal becoming an optional management measure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DAYTIME HEAT BALANCE FOR ESTIMATING NON-RADIATIVE FLUXES OF LAKE BANYOLES,SPAIN

Combining a six-term heat balance equation and a seasonal thermocline model, a new equation to calculate non- radiative fluxes of Lake Banyoles has been determined. Mean daily measurements of global solar radiation, downward longwave radiation, wind speed, air temperature and water surface temperature were used as input data and lake temperature as the calculated output data of the model. To calibrate performance of the new equation, calculated lake temperature was compared with measured lake temperature during both the mixing and the stratified period of the lake. The new coefficients in the wind function to calculate the non-radiative fluxes at the water surface were assumed to depend on the variability of the wind speed, the air temperature of the study area and the surface temperature of the lake. In addition, the results were used to estimate the heat balance of the air–water interface of Lake Banyoles over a period of two years. The processes that have been taken into account are shortwave and longwave radiation, back-radiation emitted by the lake, sensible and latent heat and throughflow.     

CLM4-LISSS模型对太湖多时间尺度水热通量模拟性能的评估

湖泊模型为数值天气预报模型提供热量通量、水汽通量和动量通量等下边界条件,但是不同时间尺度上湖泊水热通量变化的控制因子不同,因此有必要对湖泊模型进行多时间尺度上的离线评估.本文利用2012-2016年太湖中尺度通量网避风港站的气象资料和辐射数据驱动CLM4-LISSS模型(Community Land Model version 4-Lake,Ice,Snow and Sediment Simulator),并与涡度相关观测(Eddy Covariance,EC)结果进行对比,以年平均潜热通量模拟结果最佳为目标调整了模式中的消光系数、粗糙度长度方案,研究了该模型从半小时到年尺度上对湖表温度和水热通量的模拟性能.结果表明:模型对湖表温度的模拟在各时间尺度上均比较理想,但是模拟的日较差较小;从半小时到年尺度上潜热通量的变化趋势都能被很好地模拟出来,但在季节尺度上,潜热通量的模拟出现了秋冬季偏高、春夏季偏低的情况,季节变化模拟不准确.湖表温度和潜热通量模拟偏差的原因可能是消光系数的参数化方案.相比之下,感热通量尽管年际变化趋势的模拟值与观测值一致,但是从半小时到年尺度均被高估.特别地,冷锋过境期间,模型能较好地模拟出潜热通量和感热通量的变化趋势,但对于高风速条件下的感热通量模拟效果不佳.本文的研究结果能为湖泊模式的应用与发展提供有用信息.     

Mathematische Modelle zur Simulation von Zirkulationsströmungen in einem See

The three-dimensional, finite-difference model of R.L. Street (Stanford University) has been adapted at the simulation of wind-induced currents in the northern basin of the Lake of Lugano. The model makes use of complete Navier-Stokes equations and a dynamical algorithm to calculate the eddy viscosity. The model predictions are compared with data collected in the measure campaign of 1979. A further application of the model is the cold inflow simulation in a stratified basin with inclusion of turbulent vertical exchange processes. A two-dimensional version of the model, which assumes an hydrostatic pressure distribution, is utilized to simulate the thermal sommer development of the Lake of Lugano, during 40 days. The model includes the thermical interactions and the wind influence. The results obtained show the possible application of the three-dimensional model to the currents simulation in lake basins. The two-dimensional model may be utilized to predict the development of a basin subject to a thermal load.      

Prediction of Water Temperature as Affected by a Pre‐Constructed Reservoir Project Based on MIKE11

Reservoir construction can lead to much more water stored in front of the dam and significantly increase heat storage capacity of the reservoir waters, thus resulting in different distribution pattern of water temperature in reservoir area compared to river. Especially for large reservoir, the obvious stratification of water temperature will appear in the reservoir with deeper water levels. Meanwhile, the low water temperature will be observed in the downstream river due to the operation of the reservoir. The vertical numerical simulation model for reservoir from MIKE 11 was used to predict the changes of water temperature of Wuxikou Reservoir to check the effects of the reservoir construction on water temperature. The water temperature prediction model was developed to simulate the water temperature of the reservoir and the discharged outflow water. The predicted results can contribute to assessing the feasibility of the pre‐constructed project based on the environmental influence of water temperature.     

河道型水库水动力特征与气候条件的响应关系

气候条件(降雨、气温)的变化对流域内水资源、河道、湖库的径流影响较大.河道型水库由于具有河道和湖泊的双重特点,受气候条件的影响则更为显著.本文以广东省梅州的河道型水库——长潭水库为例,耦合流域分布式水文模型SWAT与环境流体动力学模型EFDC,研究了河道型水库水动力特征(以水龄表征)与气候条件的响应关系.根据梅县气象站1953-2010年共58年的年均降雨量资料的频率分析,选取降雨量保证率分别为20%(丰水年)、50%(平水年)和90%(枯水年)年份的气候条件作为3种气候方案,对应的典型年分别为1992、1988和2004年,并将各典型年的日均降雨量和气温作为SWAT水文模型的输入条件,模拟了进入长潭水库各主要支流的日均变化过程.并将该流量过程作为长潭水库库区水动力模型的入流边界,模拟了各种降雨典型年情景下长潭水库的水动力变化过程.结果表明,长潭水库库区水龄沿程逐渐增大,呈指数增长的趋势,且受气候条件的影响很大.与丰水年相比,平水年、枯水年年降雨量分别减少了14%和49%,入库径流分别减少了23%和62%,水库出库坝址附近水龄分别增大了66%和247%,支流区域水龄增幅可达81%和290%左右,可见水库水动力特征受气候条件影响很大,而支流区域受气候条件影响更显著.不同气候条件下,河道型水库分别呈现出河道和深水湖泊的双重特性.丰水年时,坝址附近垂向上水体交换频繁,水龄均匀,呈现出河道的特性;平水年与枯水年时,坝址附近水体垂向交换较弱,逐渐呈现出深水湖泊的垂向分层特性.另外,流域分布式水文模型SWAT与环境流体动力学模型EFDC的联用,为弥补历史长系列高频监测资料的缺失,提高湖库水动力模型模拟的精度提供了有效的方法.     

Heat transport in the Red Lake Bog,Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands

We report the results of an investigation on the processes controlling heat transport in peat under a large bog in the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. For 2 years, starting in July 1998, we recorded temperature at 12 depth intervals from 0 to 400 cm within a vertical peat profile at the crest of the bog at sub‐daily intervals. We also recorded air temperature 1 m above the peat surface. We calculate a peat thermal conductivity of 0·5 W m^?1 °C^?1 and model vertical heat transport through the peat using the SUTRA model. The model was calibrated to the first year of data, and then evaluated against the second year of collected heat data. The model results suggest that advective pore‐water flow is not necessary to transport heat within the peat profile and most of the heat is transferred by thermal conduction alone in these waterlogged soils. In the spring season, a zero‐curtain effect controls the transport of heat through shallow depths of the peat. Changes in local climate and the resulting changes in thermal transport still may cause non‐linear feedbacks in methane emissions related to the generation of methane deeper within the peat profile as regional temperatures increase. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling inter-annual and spatial variability of ice cover in a temperate lake with complex morphology

The formation of ice cover on lakes alters heat and energy transfer with the water column. The fraction of surface area covered by ice and the timing of ice-on and ice-off therefore affects hydrodynamics and the seasonal development of stratification and related ecosystem processes. Multi-year model simulations of temperate lake ecosystems that freeze partially or completely therefore require simulation of the formation and duration of ice cover. Here we present a multi-year hydrodynamic simulation of an alpine lake with complex morphology (Lower Lake Constance, LLC) using the three-dimensional (3D) model Aquatic Ecosystem Model (AEM3D) over a period of 9 years. LLC is subdivided into three basins (Gnadensee, Zeller See and Rheinsee) which differ in depth, morphological features, hydrodynamic conditions and ice cover phenology and thickness. Model results were validated with field observations and additional information on ice cover derived from a citizen science approach using information from social media. The model reproduced the occurrence of thin ice as well as its inter-annual variability and differentiated the frequency and extent of ice cover between the three sub-basins. It captured that full ice cover occurs almost each winter in Gnadensee, but only rarely in Zeller See and Rheinsee. The results indicate that the 3D model AEM3D is suitable for simulating long-term dynamics of thin ice cover in lakes with complex morphology and inter-annual changes in spatially heterogeneous ice cover.     

3D SPH numerical simulation of the wave generated by the Vajont rockslide

A 3D numerical modeling of the wave generated by the Vajont slide, one of the most destructive ever occurred, is presented in this paper. A meshless Lagrangian Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique was adopted to simulate the highly fragmented violent flow generated by the falling slide in the artificial reservoir. The speed-up achievable via General Purpose Graphic Processing Units (GP-GPU) allowed to adopt the adequate resolution to describe the phenomenon. The comparison with the data available in literature showed that the results of the numerical simulation reproduce satisfactorily the maximum run-up, also the water surface elevation in the residual lake after the event.Moreover, the 3D velocity field of the flow during the event and the discharge hydrograph which overtopped the dam, were obtained.     

Simulating and understanding effects of water level fluctuations on thermal regimes in Miyun Reservoir

ABSTRACT

Water temperature dynamics in a reservoir are affected by its bathymetry, climatic conditions and hydrological processes. Miyun Reservoir in China is a large and deep reservoir that experienced a large water level decline in 1999–2004 due to low rainfall and relatively high water supply to Beijing. To study changes of stratification characteristics in Miyun Reservoir from 1998 to 2011, the one-dimensional year-round lake model MINLAKE2010 was modified by adding a new selective withdraw module and a reservoir hydrological model. Simulation results under three scenarios demonstrated that the new MINLAKE2012 model accurately predicted daily water levels and temperature dynamics during the water level fluctuation period. The water level decline led to 7.6 and 3.8°C increases in the maximum and mean bottom temperatures and about 29 days reduction in the stratification days. These simulation results provide an insight into the thermal evolution of Miyun Reservoir during the planned future water filling process.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor M. Acreman     

Effects of rainfall on thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen in a deep drinking water reservoir

Thermal stratification is crucial for water quality and ecological processes in deep lakes and reservoirs and can be substantially affected by meteorological and hydrological processes in the catchment. However, how thermal stratification responds to rainfalls of different intensities and changing hydrological processes has not been documented very well. Here, high frequency water column profiles at three stations in a large subtropical deep reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China) in 2017 were used to elucidate the impacts of rainfall on lake physical process and chemical environment. The impact of rainfalls on the thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen in riverine zone was more impressive than that in transitional and lacustrine zones. The effect on thermal stratification by rainfall was largely affected by the magnitude of rainfall. Moderate and heavy rainfall events could reduce the thermal stability of water column, deepen the mixing layer depth, and shape the thermocline, resulting from decrease of surface water temperature and increased inflows. While rainstorms could totally break up thermoclines in the riverine zone by high volume inflow flushing. In addition, we found that the hypoxia and anoxia initial depths increased during rainfall events in this reservoir, which were well related to the changes of mixing layer depths. This research highlights that quantifying the effects of rainfalls on thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen will be beneficial for optimizing reservoir management.     

Using numerical modeling for assessing the recoverable reserves of a geothermal steam field: The Pauzhetka geothermal field

A conceptual hydrogeological model has been created and a corresponding 3D numerical, thermal hydrodynamic model developed for the Pauzhetka geothermal field; the model covers an area of 13.6 km² and includes three layers: a basement with conduits that supply the heat carrier, a hydrothermal reservoir, and an upper aquifer with percolation “windows.” Inversion is handled by the iTOUGH2 program; the model was calibrated using the 1960-2006 data on the natural state and extraction at 13675 calibration points. The inversion simulation has made it possible to identify and evaluate the key parameters of the model and to identify the sources that generate the recoverable reserves. Forecasting modeling for the period from 2007 to 2032 shows a sustainable extraction of 29 kg/s steam, provided five additional wells have been put into operation, which will provide 6.8 MWs of production by the geothermal power plant. The results of forecasting modeling, in combination with observations on long-term operation, allow an evaluation of the recoverable reserves in the industrial categories.     

一个分层水库温跃层的模拟与验证

以西安金盆水库为例,建立了分层水库水温结构的数值模拟方法,并以实测数据进行模型验证.运用Fluent软件数值研究了不同短波辐射强度及短波辐射衰减系数条件下温跃层的形成过程与特性.水库水面总传热量在春、夏季为正值,在秋、冬季为负值,长波辐射是水面总传热量的主要影响因素,短波辐射则是温跃层形成的主要影响因素.随短波辐射衰减系数的降低,温跃层厚度增加,温跃层内温度梯度减小,短波辐射衰减系数值与实测的藻类浓度存在良好的正相关性.水库具有极限短波辐射强度,温跃层内温差随水面短波辐射强度的增加呈现先增加后减小的变化趋势;但水面短波辐射强度过高时,难以达到热平衡而形成稳定的温跃层.     

An analytical solution for describing the transient temperature distribution in an aquifer thermal energy storage system

A mathematical model is developed for predicting the temperature distribution in an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system, which consists of a confined aquifer bounded from above and below by the rocks of different geological properties. The main transfer processes of heat include the conduction and advection in the aquifer and the conduction in the rocks. The semi‐analytical solution in dimensionless form for the model is developed by Laplace transforms and its corresponding time‐domain solution is evaluated by the modified Crump method. Field geothermal property data are used to simulate the temperature distribution in an ATES system. The results show that the heat transfer in the aquifer is fast and has a vast effect on the vicinity of the wellbore. However, the aquifer temperature decreases with increasing radial and vertical distances. The temperature in the aquifer may be overestimated when ignoring the effect of thermal conductivity. The temperature distribution in an ATES system depends on the vertical thermal conduction in the rocks and the horizontal advection and thermal conduction in the aquifer. The present solution is useful in designing and simulating the heat injection facility in the ATES systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and sensitivity analysis of a model for assessing stratification and safety of Lake Nyos during artificial degassing

To prevent the recurrence of a disastrous eruption of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from Lake Nyos, a degassing plan has been set up for the lake. Since there are concerns that the degassing of the lake may reduce the stability of the density stratification, there is an urgent need for a simulation tool to predict the evolution of the lake stratification in different scenarios. This paper describes the development of a numerical model to predict the CO₂ and dissolved solids concentrations, and the temperature structure as well as the stability of the water column of Lake Nyos. The model is tested with profiles of CO₂ concentrations and temperature taken in the years 1986 to 1996. It reproduces well the general mixing patterns observed in the lake. However, the intensity of the mixing tends to be overestimated in the epilimnion and underestimated in the monimolimnion. The overestimation of the mixing depth in the epilimnion is caused either by the parameterization of the k-epsilon model, or by the uncertainty in the calculation of the surface heat fluxes. The simulated mixing depth is highly sensitive to the surface heat fluxes, and errors in the mixing depth propagate from one year to the following. A precise simulation of the mixolimnion deepening therefore requires high accuracy in the meteorological forcing and the parameterization of the heat fluxes. Neither the meteorological data nor the formulae for the calculation of the heat fluxes are available with the necessary precision. Consequently, it will be indispensable to consider different forcing scenarios in the safety analysis in order to obtain robust boundary conditions for safe degassing. The input of temperature and CO₂ to the lake bottom can be adequately simulated for the years 1986 to 1996 with a constant sublacustrine source of 18 l s^–1 with a CO₂ concentration of 0.395 mol l^–1 and a temperature of 26 °C. The results of this study indicate that the model needs to be calibrated with more detailed field data before using it for its final purpose: the prediction of the stability and the safety of Lake Nyos during the degassing process.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

皖14井水温响应机理浅析

通过巢湖皖14井高精度水温观测环境及数字化改造以来的观测资料,分析不同深度(-160m、-195m)处水温变化特征。以2012年4月11日印尼8.6级地震为例,巢湖皖14井水温同震响应所获得的数据为分析基础,利用Ansys中的热分析模型进行数值模拟,研究了同震响应过程中井孔系统水温度变化与热量传递间的关系及机理。模拟结果显示:水温数值模拟曲线与实际测量数据曲线一致,该井水温同震响应表现为下降特征,主要是热对流所致。     

Study on the simulation of transparency of Lake Taihu under different hydrodynamic conditions

It was indicated in this study that there were negative relations between the concentrations of suspended solid (SS) and transparency according to the analysis of measured data of Lake Taihu. Their relations in pervious studies were reviewed, which showed that the changes of transparency in Lake Taihu could be reflected by simulating suspended solid concentration (SSC). Measured data showed that the changes of SSC with wind speed were similar at different water depths. SSC increased with the increasing of wind speed. Both wave and lake current of Lake Taihu had positive relations with SSC. However, wave was the main factor affecting sediment suspension, while flow took the second place. In this study, a numerical model coupling lake current, wave and SSC of Lake Taihu was developed. In the SS model, the combined effects of wave and current were included. The amounts of suspended and deposited sediments near the lake bed surface layer were treated separately. The stochastic characteristics of turbulent flow pulsation near lake beds were also considered, and the start-up conditions of sediment suspension were introduced to the model. The model elucidated the mutual exchange processes between sediment particles in SS and active sediments within and on the bed surface layer. Simulated results showed that lake current had relatively significant effects on the SSC at littoral areas of Lake Taihu, while SSC at the central area of the lake was mainly influenced by wave. The changes of transparency with SSC were simulated for Lake Taihu using this model. Calculated results were validated by measured data with good fitness, which indicated that the model is basically suitable for the simulation and prediction of transparency of Lake Taihu.