Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space?Ctime structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30?days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison.     

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850?hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30?C90 (15?C20) days and were both band filtered (10?C100?days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.     

Stable isotopes in precipitation recording South American summer monsoon and ENSO variability: observations and model results

The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ¹⁸O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ¹⁸O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ¹⁸O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ¹⁸O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ¹⁸O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.     

Seasonal changes of the South American monsoon system during the Mid-Holocene in the CMIP5 simulations

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is a major climatic feature of South America, and its domain extends from Amazon to La Plata basin. The SAMS region is vulnerable to variations of climate and precipitation patterns, which could impact economic activities and lead to potential societal consequences. In the face of a warming future scenario, the importance of the study of the past climate with numerical simulations is to evaluate the climate models and to assure the reliability of future projections. Here we investigate the Mid-Holocene SAMS, evaluating changes in strength, life cycle and associated dynamical mechanisms in ten Earth System Models simulations. Our results show that the SAMS was weaker in the Mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate in December–January–February (DJF), but stronger in September–October–November (SON). This is probably a consequence of insolation variations in the Mid-Holocene, which contributed to changes in the moisture flux from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, the strength of the upper-level atmospheric circulation, and the amount of precipitation over the SAMS region. Moreover, we suggest that the life cycle of the SAMS was altered during the Mid-Holocene, with an earlier onset and demise. Our results also indicate that Mid-Holocene SAMS changes are connected to precipitation variations near Northeast Brazil, in a dipole configuration of precipitation between western Amazon and Northeast Brazil, due to the influence of the Walker cell. Finally, this study highlights a need for improvement of the numerical models to better simulate the amount of precipitation over South America and the upper-level circulation over western Amazon in SON, which are crucial factors for a more realistic representation of the SAMS.     

Subseasonal variability during the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data for the period 1998–2007 reveals large subseasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea during the summer monsoon onset. These subseasonal SST changes are closely related to surface heat flux anomalies induced by surface wind and cloud changes in association with the summer monsoon onset. The SST changes feed back on the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. The results suggest that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset involves ocean–atmosphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. While the SST response to surface heat flux changes is quick and dramatic, the time lag between the SST anomalies and the atmospheric convection response varies largely from year to year. The spatial–temporal evolution of subseasonal anomalies indicates that the subseasonal variability affecting the South China Sea summer monsoon onset starts over the equatorial western Pacific, propagates northward to the Philippine Sea, and then moves westward to the South China Sea. The propagation of these subseasonal anomalies is related to the ocean–atmosphere interaction, involving the wind-evaporation and cloud-radiation effects on SST as well as SST impacts on lower-level convergence over the equatorial western Pacific and atmospheric instability over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea.     

Numerical simulation of the North American monsoon system

Summary ¶This paper deals with the systematic evolution of the North American monsoon system by analyzing the evolution of tropospheric circulation, precipitation, moisture fluxes and the adjoining sea surface temperatures from observations and the Florida State University Nested Regional Spectral Model embedded within a coupled atmosphere–ocean coupled model. The atmospheric part is a global spectral model with triangular truncation T63 and a nested regional spectral model. The global atmospheric model is coupled with the Hamburgs Global Ocean Model. This model was integrated for six-months with 50km resolution in the North American monsoon domain. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis were used as the observed state for comparison. The analyzed model results shows that the above model has the capability of capturing some of the features of the North American monsoon system. Besides the evolution of the monsoon system, the out-of-phase relationship between the Mexican monsoon with south-central United States precipitation and the largest moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico are the principal findings of this study. It is also noted that during the mature phase of the monsoon, the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean dominates the Gulf of Mexico in order of moisture supply but immediately after the mature phase, the Gulf of Mexico dominates.Received January 18, 2002; accepted July 7, 2002 Published online: June 12, 2003     

Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon: A review

This review recapitulates climate variations of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon and our current understanding of the important physical processes responsible for the SCS summer monsoon's intraseasonal to interannual variations. We demonstrate that the 850 hPa meridional shear vorticity index (SCSMI) can conveniently measure and monitor SCS monsoon variations on a timescale ranging from intraseasonal to interdecadal. Analyses with this multi-scale index reveal that the two principal modes of intraseasonal variation, the quasi-biweekly and 30–60-day modes, have different source regions and lifecycles, and both may be potentially predicted at a lead time longer than one-half of their corresponding lifecycles. The leading mode of interannual variation is seasonally dependent: the seasonal precipitation anomaly suddenly reverses the sign from summer to fall, and the reversed anomaly then persists through the next summer. Since the late 1970s, the relationship between the SCS summer monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significantly strengthened. Before the late 1970s, the SCS summer monsoon was primarily influenced by ENSO development, while after the late 1970s, it has been affected mainly in the decaying phase of ENSO. The year of 1993 marked a sudden interdecadal change in precipitation and circulation in the SCS and its surrounding region. Over the past 60 years, the SCS summer monsoon's strength shows no significant trend, but the SCS winter monsoon displays a significant strengthening tendency (mainly in its easterly component and its total wind speed). A number of outstanding issues are raised for future studies.     

Vertical structures of atmospheric properties in Southeast Tibet during the South Asian summer monsoon in 2013

In June 2013, a field experiment was conducted in Southeast Tibet in which the air temperature, moisture, and wind were measured by using a GPS sounding system. In the present study, based on these observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the vertical structures of these atmospheric properties and the possible influence of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) were investigated. On average, the temperature had a lapse rate of 6.8℃km^?1 below the tropopause of 18.0 km. A strong moisture inversion occurred at the near-surface, with a strength of 1.7 g kg^?1 (100 m)^?1 for specific humidity. During the observation period, the SASM experienced a south phase and a north phase in the middle and by the end of June, respectively. The monsoon’s evolution led to large changes in convection and circulation over Southeast Tibet, which further affected the local thermal, moisture, and circulation conditions. The strong convection resulted in an elevated tropopause height over Southeast Tibet during the north phase of the SASM, and the large-scale warm and wet air masses delivered by the monsoon caused high local temperature and moisture conditions.     

Interannual variability in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon from 1997 to 2014

本文基于南海地区850 hPa风场,降水以及海温定义了南海夏季风爆发指数,将南海季风爆发过程分为季节转换和季风爆发两个过程来进行研究。对18年的观测分析发现,南海季风爆发可归纳为三种情况:第一种是季风正常爆发,随着季节转换结束后,西南季风和降水在南海地区有明显增强;第二种是间接性爆发,在季节转换结束后,西南季风和降水的建立不是特别明显;第三种是推迟爆发,在季节转换结束后,南海地区没有建立西南季风也没有降水产生。进一步研究发现,西太副高异常西伸是导致南海季风延迟爆发的重要因素之一。此外,大尺度环流背景ENSO的影响也对南海季风爆发时间的早晚有重要影响,但并不是唯一决定性因素,印度洋和亚洲大地形的局地热力差异变化是影响季风爆发的另一重要因素。     

Some evidence on the relationship between the South American monsoon and the Atlantic ITCZ

The seasonal variations of convection associated with the South American monsoon system (SAMS) are analyzed using pentad means of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data during the 1979–2006 period. The data is filtered for the 0.4–1.2 year scale and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied. The results provide three dominant modes with distinct convective features, which are referred to as: equatorially antisymmetric, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and symmetric modes. The first two modes vary in an annual scale, and the latter one in a semiannual scale. The evolving aspects of these modes are studied by correlating (lagged and simultaneously) the principal component of each mode and the filtered OLR time series. The antisymmetric and the ITCZ modes evolve smoothly into each other reflecting the northwestward and northeastward propagation of convective activity. The propagation rates vary depending on development stage and region considered. On the other hand, the symmetric mode with the largest convective activity in the western Amazon evolves independently, and depicts the transition from dry to wet seasons and vice-versa.     

我国季风区湿度场的一些统计特征

在计算我国7站(其中东部季风区5个站)10年逐日大气湿度参量的基础上,对大气湿润状况的一些基本统计性质,包括均方差、标准误差、偏度及不同等压面上湿度变化的相关性等,进行了分析。结果表明,这些统计量的地理分布、季节变化及不同高度之间的差异等均与季风气候的特征有着密切的联系。     

强弱南海夏季风活动及大气季节内振荡

应用ＮＣＥＰ再分析资料和中国降水资料，分析研究了对应南海强、弱夏季风的环流形势及其与之相应的中国东部的降水异常。其结果表明，由强、弱夏季风所引起的中国气候异常是完全不同（甚至反相）的。分析大气季节内振荡（ＩＳＯ）的活动还表明，对应大气强（弱）南海夏季风，南海地区 ８５０ ｈＰａ也有强（弱）大气 ＩＳＯ；而强、弱南海夏季风环流（２００ ｈＰａ和 ８５０ ｈＰａ）主要由异常的大气ＩＳＯ所激发。本研究还揭示了南海地区大气ＩＳＯ的变化往往与江淮地区大气ＩＳＯ的变化反相，例如南海地区的强（弱）大气ＩＳＯ常与江淮流域的弱（强）大气ＩＳＯ相对应。对于大气ＩＳＯ的强度，一般多表现出局地激发特征，经向传播相对较弱。     

Influence of sea surface temperature on the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon

The objective of this study is to examine, based on recently available high resolution satellite and observational data, the evolution and role of sea surface temperature (SST) in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SM). The study focuses on the 30–60?day timescale when the northward propagating anomalies are dominant over the SCS. Composite analysis of the SST maximum events during SCS SM shows that increased SST anomalies over the SCS are significantly influenced by the downward shortwave radiation flux anomalies, with the suppressed surface latent heat flux anomalies supplementing to it. A thermal damping of the positive SST anomalies induces positive upward heat fluxes, which then destabilize the lower atmosphere between 1,000 and 700?hPa. The positive SST anomalies lead the positive precipitation anomalies over the SCS by 10?days, with a significant correlation (r?=?0.44) between the SST-precipitation anomalies. The new findings here indicate an ocean-to-atmosphere effect over the SCS, where underlying SST anomalies tend to form a favorable condition for convective activity and sustain enhanced precipitation during the SCS SM. It is also argued, based on our observations, that the negative sea level pressure anomalies induced by the positive SST anomalies play a role in enhancing the northward propagation of the intraseasonal anomalies over the SCS.     

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979–2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981–2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081–2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the inter-tropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MIROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS’s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.     

A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

The present study aims to (a) examine meteorological basis for construction of regional monsoon indices and (b) explore the commonality and differences among tropical regional monsoons, especially the teleconnection and monsoon–ENSO relationship. We show that the area-averaged summer precipitation intensity is generally a meaningful precipitation index for tropical monsoons because it represents very well both the amplitude of annual cycle and the leading mode of year-to-year rainfall variability with a nearly uniform spatial pattern. The regional monsoon circulation indices can be defined in a unified way (measuring monsoon trough vorticity) for seven tropical monsoon regions, viz.: Indian, Australian, western North Pacific, North and South American, and Northern and Southern African monsoons. The structures of the tropical monsoons are commonly characterized by a pair of upper-level double anticyclones residing in the subtropics of both hemispheres; notably the winter hemispheric anticyclone has a barotropic structure and is a passive response. Two types of upper-level teleconnection patterns are identified. One is a zonal wave train emanating from the double anticyclones downstream along the westerly jets in both hemispheres, including Indian, Northern African and Australian monsoons; the other is a meridional wave train emanating from the double anticyclones polewards, such as the South American and western North Pacific monsoons. Over the past 55 years all regional summer monsoons have non-stationary relationship with ENSO except the Australian monsoon. The regional monsoon–ENSO relationship is found to have common changing points in 1970s. The relationships were enhanced for the western North Pacific, Northern African, North American and South American summer monsoons, but weakened for the Indian summer monsoon (with a recovery in late 1990s). Regardless the large regional differences, the monsoon precipitations over land areas of all tropical monsoon regions are significantly correlated with the ENSO, suggesting that ENSO drives global tropical monsoon rainfall variability. These results provide useful guidance for monitoring sub-seasonal to seasonal variations of the regional monsoons currently done at NCEP and for assessment of the climate models’ performances in representing regional and global monsoon variability.     

West Pacific subtropical high double ridges and intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon

In this study, the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 is used to investigate the possible impact of IntraSeasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon on the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) double ridges. Three WPSH modes are defined as the 3/6 mode, the 1/2 mode and the dual mode, for the amplitude of the 30–60-day oscillation of SCS summer monsoon which is larger, smaller and comparable to the 10–20-day oscillation, respectively. The results show that there are no double ridges of WPSH present during 3/6 mode, but a weak process can be found during 1/2 mode. However, a powerful double-ridge structure of WPSH is present in several phases of the dual mode during both the 10–20-day oscillation and the 30–60-day oscillation. Then two typical WPSH double ridge cases in 1999, a special year of the dual mode, are chosen to further discuss this interesting phenomenon. Case 1 (24 July–27 July) is much weaker, and in this case the southern ridge disappears after several days, while during case 2 (3 August–11 August), the southern ridge finally replaces the northern ridge. The double ridges are much stronger compared to case 1. The ISO evolution feature is different between case 1 and case 2. The anomalous circulation of 10–20-day oscillation is anticyclonic over the southern ridge during both case 1 and case 2. However, the anomalous circulation of 30–60-day oscillation is cyclonic during case 1 and anticyclonic during case 2. It is this difference that leads to the double ridges being more powerful in case 2 than in case 1. This indicates that the 10–20-day oscillation of the SCS summer monsoon plays a key role in the WPSH double-ridge formation, while the 30–60-day oscillation provides a favorable background for it.