Reevaluation of the earthquakes of 10 March and 19 May 1951 in southern Spain

Damage and parameters of the earthquakes of 10 March and 19 May 1951 in southern Spain have been reevaluated. Data available do not allow accurate depth determinations and previous estimates of larger depths are not confirmed, so depths have been fixed at 30 km for both shocks. Magnitudes (Ms) have been determined as 5.4 and 5.6, respectively. Intensities estimated at 22 and 29 sites from contemporary documentary sources give maximum values of VI–VII and VI (EMS Scale), lower than previous estimates. The focal mechanism for the May shock is right-lateral strike-slip with a normal component of motion, with planes with strikes 273° and 169°; seismic moment 1.9 × 10¹⁶ Nm and dimension 6 km (radius of circular fault). Shocks are located near the boundary between the Iberian plateau and the Guadalquivir Basin and may be related to faults connected with this boundary.     

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

变化环境下珠江流域洪水频率变化特征、成因及影响(1951-2010年)

气候变化和人类活动导致珠江流域水文变化,变化前后洪水频率分布显著不同.运用滑动秩和(Mann-Whitney U test)结合Brown-Forsythe、滑动T、有序聚类和Mann-Kendall检验法,并用累积距平曲线法获取年最大流量序列详细信息,综合确定样本最佳变化节点,并对水文变化成因做了系统分析.在此基础上,对整体序列、变化前后序列用线性矩法推求广义极值分布参数以及不同重现期设计流量.结果表明:(1)西江大部以及北江流域最佳变化节点在1991年左右;东江流域最佳变化节点与该流域内3大控制性水库建成时间基本吻合;(2)变化后,西江、北江年最大流量持续增加,洪峰强度增大,尤其是西江干流年最大流量显著增加;东江流域年最大流量显著减小,洪峰强度降低;(3)变化后,西江与北江洪水风险增加,尤其是下游珠三角地区本身受人类活动显著影响,加之西江与北江持续增加的洪水强度,珠三角地区发生洪水的强度及频次加剧,而东江洪水风险减小.此研究对于珠江流域在变化环境下的洪水风险评估与防洪抗灾具有重要意义.     

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1989年12月25日侯马市4.9级地震宏观调查报告

本文介绍了1989年12月25 日侯马4.9Ms地震后对地震区地震烈度、震害、宏观异常现象和社会经济影响的调查结果以及地震现场的一点体会。     

山西中南部流体前兆异常调查报告

2000年6月前后，山西中南部出现了6项以流体为代表且具有短临性质的前兆异常。调查结果表明，异常中属人为干扰的有2项，占异常总数的33％，信度较低的异常有1项，占异常总数的17％，反映区域应力场活动的异常有3项，占异常总数的50％。根据以往震例及异常变化特征分析认为，1a内在山西中南部有发生5．0级左右地震的背景。     

Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951–2005

The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann–Kendall trend test method (M‐K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large‐scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55·3% of the variance, and the large‐scale climate system effect type, which explained 9·8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15–40 and 0–10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10–40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58–62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra‐annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter‐annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22·2% in the extreme‐arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18·5% and 37·5% in the semi‐arid zones and semi‐wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全球台网报告

随着2001年西澳大利亚MBWA Marbe Bar台站的完成和加那利群岛Taburiente台站的关闭，美国地震学合作研究会全球地震台网共有125个台站。     

工业计算机断层扫描仪(工业CT)研制报告

工业CT(ICT)是用于工业产品进行无损检测和探伤的先进仪器。ICT技术能紧密、准确地再现物体内部的三维立体结构,能够定量地提供物体内部的物理、力学等特性,如缺陷的位置及尺寸、密度的变化及水平,异型结构的形状及精确尺寸,物体内部的杂质及分布等。ICT的功能和特性在许多方面越过X光和超声检测,为航空、航天、兵器等工业领域的精密零部件的无损检测提供了新的手段。该技术研制成功并荣获1994年度亚洲CT技术十大科技进展成果奖。有关专家认为该技术居国内先进水平,与国际水平相当。我们研制开发的工业CT机已经为中国航空材料研究所、中国运载火箭技术研究院、兵器工业总公司等多家科研、生产单位进行了各种零件的测试。     

The Research Report on the Industrial CT (ICT) ICT-X01

1The Selection of the technical plan1. 1 About the type of scan: ICT can be the 2nd generation CT or the 3rd generation CT according to itsscanning type. For the 2nd generation, the object being scanned translates at one constant angle location atfor Having completed the translation the object rotates a certain angle (generally 12 degrees). Then a newtranslation begins at the new angle location. In this way the translation-rotation repeats 15 times to cover thetotal 180 degrees. The transl…