Long-term variations of geomagnetic activity and their solar sources

Geomagnetic activity in each phase of the solar cycle consists of 3 parts: (1) a “floor” below which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall even in the absence of sunspots, related to moderate graduate commencement storms; (2) sunspot-related activity due to sudden commencement storms caused by coronal mass ejections; (3) graduate commencement storms due to high speed solar wind from solar coronal holes. We find that the changes in the “floor” depend on the global magnetic moment of the Sun, and on the other side, from the height of the “floor” we can judge about the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.     

2007-2012年Dstmin≤-50nT的中等以上地磁暴的行星际源统计

地磁暴的行星际源研究是了解及预报地磁暴的关键因素之一.本文研究了2007-2012年间的所有Dst_min ≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,建立了这些地磁暴及其行星际源的列表.在这6年中,共发生了51次Dst_min≤-50 nT的中等以上地磁暴,其中9次为Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴事件.对比上一活动周相同时间段发现,在这段太阳活动极低的时间,地磁暴的数目显著减少.对这些地磁暴行星际源的分析表明,65%的中等以上地磁暴由与日冕物质抛射相关的行星际结构引起,31%的地磁暴由共转相互作用区引起,这与以前的结果一致.特别的,在这个太阳活动极低时期内,共转相互作用区没有引起Dst_min≤-100 nT的强地磁暴,同时,日冕物质抛射相关结构也没有引起Dst_min≤-200 nT的超强地磁暴.以上结果表明极低太阳活动同时导致了共转相互作用区和日冕物质抛射地磁效应的减弱.进一步,分析不同太阳活动期间地磁暴的行星际源发现:在太阳活动低年(2007-2009年),共转相互作用区是引起地磁暴的主要原因; 而在太阳活动上升期和高年(2010-2013年),大部分(75%,30/40)的中等以上地磁暴均由日冕物质抛射相关结构引起.     

强磁暴的时间分布特性

对比分析1957--2008年间Dst≤-100nT的强磁暴数与太阳黑子数的变化趋势,发现太阳黑子数和Dst≤-100nT的强磁暴数的变化趋势有很好的一致性。进一步统计强磁暴在太阳周不同阶段的分布后发现,同一太阳周内60％以上的强磁暴出现在下降年,但从太阳周各个阶段的平均磁暴年发生率来看,强磁暴平均年发生率最高的年份仍然是太阳活动极大年。     

Great geomagnetic storms in 1841–1870 according to the data from the network of Russian geomagnetic observatories

Great magnetic storms (geomagnetic index C9 is ≥8 for St. Petersburg, which can correspond to Kp ≥ 8 or Dst < ?200 nT), registered from 1841 to 1870 at the St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Barnaul, Nerchinsk, Sitka, and Beijing (at the Russian embassy) observatories are analyzed. A catalog of intensive magnetic storms during this period, which includes solar cycles 9–11, has been compiled. The statistical characteristics of great magnetic storms during this historical period have been obtained. These results indicate that high solar activity played a decisive role in the generation of very intense magnetic storms during the considered period. These storms are characterized by only one peak in a solar cycle, which was registered in the years of the cycle minimum (or slightly earlier): the number of great geomagnetic storms near the solar activity maximum was twice as large as the number of such storms during less active periods. A maximum in September–October and an additional maximum in February are observed in the annual distribution of storms. In addition, the storm intensity inversely depends on the storm duration.     

太阳活动周磁暴与亚洲M_S 7.0以上地震活动关系

将1996—2015年太阳黑子数、强磁暴和M_S≥7.0亚洲浅源地震,按Dst指数大小对磁暴进行分类和统计,按震级大小对地震进行分类统计,结果发现,在1996—2015年太阳活动周下降年易发生大磁暴,且M_S≥7.0地震年发生率明显高于太阳活动周上升年、极大年和极小年。     

Comment on the paper “CAWSES November 7–8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post-Solar Maximum Phase,” B. T. Tsurutani,E. Echer,F. L. Guarnieri,and J. U. Kozyra,Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (2008)

The solar sources of the magnetic storms of November 8 and 10, 2004, are analyzed. The preliminary results of such an analysis [Yermolaev et al., 2005] are critically compared with the results of the paper [Tsurutani et al., 2008], where solar flares were put in correspondence with these magnetic storms. The method for determining solar sources that cause powerful magnetospheric storms is analyzed. It has been indicated that an optimal approach consists in considering coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as storm sources and accompanying flares as additional information about the location of CME origination.     

The solar influences data analysis centre

Since 1981, the Royal Observatory of Belgium has operated the Sunspot Index Data Centre, the World Data Centre for the Sunspot Index. Recently, the Space Weather Forecast Centre of Paris–Meudon was transferred and added to the activities of the SIDC. Moreover, a complete archive of all images of the SOHO instrument EIT has become available at the SIDC. Given all these extensions, the new style SIDC has become a ‘Solar Influences Data Centre’ that analyses solar activity and provides services on three different time scales:1. Fast warnings and real time monitoring. As the Regional Warning Centre (RWC) for Western Europe of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), the SIDC collects and redistributes solar, geomagnetic, and ionospheric data in Western Europe. Short-term predictions (3 days) and alerts are produced on a daily basis.2. Forecasts and middle term analysis. The SIDC takes care of the calculation of a sunspot index, called the International Sunspot Number. We compute and broadcast the daily, monthly, yearly international sunspot numbers, with middle range predictions (up to 12 months).3. Post-event analysis and long-term solar cycle analysis. Since the launch of SOHO, EIT offers a global view of the EUV corona over the whole rising phase of the solar activity cycle. Such a long-duration data series is unprecedented and allows the study of the evolution over the solar cycle of objects classes such as active regions, coronal holes, coronal mass ejections or flares.     

Solar activity and geomagnetic disturbances

An analysis of IZNIRAN magnetic observatory data indicated that geomagnetic storms with sudden and gradual commencements form two independent populations with respect to the disturbance occurrence time and character because the solar sources of these disturbances are different. Storms with sudden and gradual commencements are caused by coronal mass ejections and high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes, respectively.     

Superconcentration of photospheric sources of the large-scale open solar magnetic field in the main zone of active longitudes,blocking of differential rotation,and origination of the four-sector structure: 2. Geoeffectiveness

The effectiveness of the series of powerful heliospheric storms, originated during the decline phase of cycle 23 owing to the superconcentration of the open field photospheric sources in the main zone of active longitudes, has been studied. The geoeffectiveness of the storm of July 16—27, 2004, was closely related to the origination of the four-sector structure and depended on the destabilization of two activity centers weakly and strongly geoeffective with ARs 10649 and 10652. The first center was localized in one of the new sectors; the second center, in the western surroundings of the zone of active longitudes. The departure of coronal mass ejections from AR 10649 was substantially hindered: they were completely absent after the series of powerful X-ray flares, and a rare phenomenon of “sunquake” was observed: shock waves did not reach the Earth in spite of its favorable position. The Earth was strongly shielded by new sector boundaries from coronal ejections from AR 10652 with a gradual weakening and disappearance of this region, as a result of which the cascade of three near-Earth storms with an increasing power and Ap, indices of 52, 154, and 186 originated. Rare phenomena in AR 10649 and the cascade of solar—terrestrial heliospheric storms made the storm of July 16— 27 a unique phenomenon in cycle 23, and a short-term prediction of its geoeffectiveness was impossible.     

Statistical study on great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23

Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dstxi≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz≤-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.     

Timing patterns in event lists: Recurrent geomagnetic storms

The time separations between events in an extended list of occurrence times may reveal recurrence patterns of predictive and interpretive value. A strategy for extracting the period and amplitude of cyclic or recurrent phenomena from lists of event times is developed and applied to 119 years of geomagnetic storm data. The ensemble of time intervals separating pairs of sudden commencement geomagnetic storms (SSCs) differs significantly from that expected for randomly occurring events, permitting the detection of preferred intervals between event occurrences and a determination of the strength and significance of recurrence patterns. Through 11 sunspot cycles, SSCs show persistent nonrandomness at the solar rotation period and its low multiples. The recurrence period is shorter on descending cycle phase than on the ascending phase. The strength of SSC recurrence near 27 days is comparable on ascending and descending phases, in contrast with the behavior of gradual commencement storms triggered by corotating solar wind streams.     

Displacement of large-scale open solar magnetic fields from the zone of active longitudes and the heliospheric storm of November 3–10, 2004: 2. “Explosion” of singularity and dynamics of sunspot formation and energy release

A more detailed scenario of one stage (August–November 2004) of the quasibiennial MHD process “Origination ... and dissipation of the four-sector structure of the solar magnetic field” during the decline phase of cycle 23 has been constructed. It has been indicated that the following working hypothesis on the propagation of an MHD disturbance westward (in the direction of solar rotation) and eastward (toward the zone of active longitudes) with the displacement of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) from this zone can be constructed based on LOSMF model representations and data on sunspot formation, flares, active filaments, and coronal ejections as well as on the estimated contribution of sporadic energy release to the flare luminosity and kinetic energy of ejections: (1) The “explosion” of the LOSMF singularity and the formation in the explosion zone of an anemone active region (AR), which produced the satellite sunspot formation that continued west and east of the “anemone,” represented a powerful and energy-intensive source of MHD processes at this stage. (2) This resulted in the origination of two “governing” large-scale MHD processes, which regulated various usual manifestations of solar activity: the fast LOSMF along the neutral line in the solar atmosphere, strongly affecting the zone of active longitudes, and the slow LOSMF in the outer layers of the convection zone. The fronts of these processes were identified by powerful (about 10³¹ erg) coronal ejections. (3) The collision of a wave reflected from the zone of active longitudes with the eastern front of the hydromagnetic impulse of the convection zone resulted in an increase in LOSMF magnetic fluxes, origination of an active sector boundary in the zone of active longitudes, shear-convergent motions, and generation and destabilization of the flare-productive AR 10696 responsible for the heliospheric storm of November 3–10, 2004.     

中低纬地区电离层对CIR和CME响应的统计分析

本文利用中低纬日本地区(131°E,35°N)GPS-TEC格点化数据,分析了2001—2009年间109个共转相互作用区(CIR)事件、45个日冕物质抛射(CME)事件引起的地磁扰动期间电离层的响应.结果表明,电离层暴的类型随太阳活动的变化而有不同的变化,CIR事件引发的电离层正相暴、正负双相暴多发生在太阳活动下降年,负相暴多发生在高年,负正双相暴多发生在低年;CME事件引发的电离层正相暴和负相暴多发生在高年.CIR和CME引发的不同类型的电离层暴的季节性差异不大,在夏季多发生正负双相暴.电离层暴发生时间相对地磁暴的时延大部分在-6~6h之间,但CIR引发的电离层暴时延范围更广,在-12~24h之间,而CME引发的电离层暴时延主要在-6~6h之间.中低纬的电离层暴多发生在主相阶段,其中CIR引发的双相暴也会发生在初相阶段.电离层负暴多发生在AE最大值为800~1200nT之间.CIR引起的电离层扰动持续时间较长,一般在1~6天左右,而CME引起的电离层扰动持续时间一般在1~4天左右.     

Descriptive study of solar activity sudden increase and Halloween storms of 2003

During the declining phase of the last three solar cycles, secondary peaks have been detected 2–3 years after the main peak of sunspot number. The main peak of cycle 23 was in 2001, but a sudden increase of the solar activity occurred during the period October 17 to November 10, 2003 (the so-called Halloween storms). A similar storm occurred 1 year later, during the period October 3 to November 13, 2004. These events are considered as secondary peaks during the declining phase of cycle 23. Secondary peaks during declining phase of the last 10 solar cycles were detected by Gonzalez and Tsurutani [1990. Planetary and Space Science 38, 181–187]. During Halloween storm period, the sunspot area increased up to 1.11×10^?9 hemisphere on October 19, and grow up to 5.69×10^?9 hemisphere on October 30, 2003. Then it decreased to 1.11×10^?9 hemisphere on November 4, 2003. Also, the radio flux of λ=10.7 cm increased from 120 sfu on October 19, to 298 sfu on October 26, 2003, then decreased to 168 sfu on November 4, 2003. Two eruptive solar proton flares were released on 26 and 28 October 2003, the latter being the most eruptive flare recorded since 1976 (values reaching X17/4B).The aim of this study is to follow the morphological and magnetic changes of the active region before, during, and after the production of high-energy flares. Furthermore, the causes of release of these eruptive storms have been discussed for the period, October–November 2003, during the declining phase of the solar cycle 23.     

特大地磁暴的一种行星际源:多重磁云

2001年3月31日观测到的大的多重磁云(Multi MC)事件造成了第23周太阳峰年(2000～2001)最大的地磁暴(Dst=-387nT). 通过分析ACE飞船的观测数据, 描述了这个多重磁云在1AU处的磁场和等离子体特征. 并且根据SOHO和GOES卫星的观测资料, 认证了它的太阳源. 在这次事件中, 由于多重磁云内部异常增强的南向磁场, 使之地磁效应变得更强, 它大大的延长了地磁暴的持续时间. 观测结果与理论分析表明, 多重磁云中子磁云的相互挤压使磁云内的磁场强度及其南向分量增强数倍, 从而加强了地磁效应. 因此, 研究认为多重磁云中子磁云之间的相互压缩是造成特大地磁暴的一种机制. 此外, 研究发现形成多重磁云的日冕物质抛射(CMEs)并不一定要来自同一太阳活动区.     

On heliophysical and geophysical phenomena during October–November 2003

A study of the geomagnetic storm of November 20–21, 2003, is presented using Solar X-rays data, solar wind parameters and magnetic index, Dst. The results suggest that very large X class flares may not cause very intense geomagnetic storms, as flares of M importance would do. Furthermore, the results suggest that the solar wind structure that was responsible for this storm is of the shock-driver gas configuration in which the sheath is the most geoeffective element. Presently it is shown that an intense storm can be driven by two successive southward B _z structures without a resultant “double dip” at the boundary of these structures within the corresponding interval of the main phase. Furthermore, this study confirms earlier results that show that pressure enhancement does not cause the direct injection of new particles into the ring current region; rather it causes a local adiabatic energization of the particles already within the ring current region.     

Solar dynamo and geomagnetic activity

The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the varying relative amplitude of the respective geomagnetic activity peaks. As the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity peaks are caused by different solar agents, related to the solar toroidal and poloidal fields, respectively, we use their variations to derive the parameters of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal field and back. We find that in the last 12 cycles the solar surface meridional circulation varied between 5 and 20 m/s (averaged over latitude and over the sunspot cycle), the deep circulation varied between 2.5 and 5.5 m/s, and the diffusivity in the whole of the convection zone was ～10⁸ m²/s. In the last 12 cycles solar dynamo has been operating in moderately diffusion dominated regime in the bulk of the convection zone. This means that a part of the poloidal field generated at the surface is advected by the meridional circulation all the way to the poles, down to the tachocline and equatorward to sunspot latitudes, while another part is diffused directly to the tachocline at midlatitudes, “short-circuiting” the meridional circulation. The sunspot maximum is the superposition of the two surges of toroidal field generated by these two parts of the poloidal field, which is the explanation of the double peaks and the Gnevyshev gap in sunspot maximum. Near the tachocline, dynamo has been operating in diffusion dominated regime in which diffusion is more important than advection, so with increasing speed of the deep circulation the time for diffusive decay of the poloidal field decreases, and more toroidal field is generated leading to a higher sunspot maximum. During the Maunder minimum the dynamo was operating in advection dominated regime near the tachocline, with the transition from diffusion dominated to advection dominated regime caused by a sharp drop in the surface meridional circulation which is in general the most important factor modulating the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.     

Relationship between cyclic variations in the velocity and occurrence frequency of coronal mass ejections and cyclic changes in the structure of the large-scale solar magnetic field

This paper investigates the relationship between cyclic variations in the velocity of coronal mass ejections and cyclic changes in the structure of the large-scale solar magnetic field (LSSMF) in solar cycle 23, using the effective solar multipole index as a parameter of the characteristic dimensions of LSSMF structural elements. Cyclic variations in the velocity and frequency of coronal mass ejections are found to resemble cyclic changes in the effective solar multipole index. It is suggested that cyclic changes in the maximum velocity of coronal mass ejections are associated with different conditions for the formation of complexes of active regions connected by coronal arch structures, the energy of which is the main source of energy (velocity) for coronal mass ejections. The study leads to some suggestions about the possible site of initiation of coronal mass ejections.     

Formation of coronal mass ejections at different phases of solar activity

This paper investigates the dependence of the observed coronal mass ejections and their parameters on evolutionary changes in the global solar magnetic field at different phases of solar cycles 23?C24. Four periods in the evolution of the solar cycle are identified, depending on the dominance ratio of the sectoral and zonal magnetic field structures. The parameters of coronal mass ejections observed during these periods are analyzed. The evolving structure in the global magnetic field is identified, and its influence on coronal mass ejections is examined.     

Fluctuation analysis of solar radio bursts associated with geoeffective X-class flares

High temporal resolution solar observations in the decimetric range (1–3 GHz) can provide additional information on solar active regions dynamics and thus contribute to better understanding of solar geoeffective events as flares and coronal mass ejections. The June 6, 2000 flares are a set of remarkable geoeffective eruptive phenomena observed as solar radio bursts (SRB) by means of the 3 GHz Ondrejov Observatory radiometer. We have selected and analyzed, applying detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), three decimetric bursts associated to X1.1, X1.2 and X2.3 flare-classes, respectively. The association with geomagnetic activity is also reported. DFA method is performed in the framework of a radio burst automatic monitoring system. Our results may characterize the SRB evolution, computing the DFA scaling exponent, scanning the SRB time series by a short windowing before the extreme event. For the first time, the importance of DFA in the context of SRB monitoring analysis is presented.