Global rainbow distribution under current and future climates

Rainbows contribute to human wellbeing by providing an inspiring connection to nature. Because the rainbow is an atmospheric optical phenomenon that results from the refraction of sunlight by rainwater droplets, changes in precipitation and cloud cover due to anthropogenic climate forcing will alter rainbow distribution. Yet, we lack a basic understanding of the current spatial distribution of rainbows and how climate change might alter this pattern. To assess how climate change might affect rainbow viewing opportunities, we developed a global database of crowd-sourced photographed rainbows, trained an empirical model of rainbow occurrence, and applied this model to present-day climate and three future climate scenarios. Results suggest that the average terrestrial location on Earth currently has 117 ± 71 days per year with conditions suitable for rainbows. By 2100, climate change is likely to generate a 4.0–4.9 % net increase in mean global annual rainbow-days (i.e., days with at least one rainbow), with the greatest change under the highest emission scenario. Around 21–34 % of land areas will lose rainbow-days and 66–79 % will gain rainbow-days, with rainbow gain hotspots mainly in high-latitude and high-elevation regions with smaller human populations. Our research demonstrates that alterations to non-tangible environmental attributes due to climate change could be significant and are worthy of consideration and mitigation.     

The dry and hot American Southwest under the present and future climates

由于正在持续的特大干旱,更频繁的洪水,热浪以及导致空气污染的山火,美国西南部目前正在经历气候危机.这些气候危机主要与水文气候过程相关,尤其是气候系统各圈层之间的水汽通量.本研究主要讨论目前一些水文系统的科学基站以及物理驱动因素,比如北美夏季风以及太平洋北美遥相关.本研究指出降水以及气温对于干旱的相对作用的理论和工具.确定内部变率和外部强迫对于美国西南部水文气候系统的相对作用尤为重要.展望未来,需要研究高分辨率模拟系统,加强降水以及温度对于水文气候系统相对作用的理解,外部强迫的作用以及通过科学家以及其他利益相关者之间的合作.     

Role of methane clathrates in past and future climates

Methane clathrates are stable at depths greater than about 200 m in permafrost regions and in ocean sediments at water depths greater than about 250 m, provided bottom waters are sufficiently cold. The thickness of the clathrate stability zone depends on surface temperature and geothermal gradient. Average stability zone thickness is about 400 m in cold regions where average surface temperatures are below freezing, 500 m in ocean sediments, and up to 1,500 m in regions of very cold surface temperature (<-15 °C) or in the deep ocean. The concentration of methane relative to water within the zone of stability determines whether or not clathrate will actually occur. The geologic setting of clathrate occurrences, the isotopic composition of the methane, and the methane to ethane plus propane ratio in both the clathrates and the associated pore fluids indicate that methane in clathrates is produced chiefly by anaerobic bacteria. Methane occurrences and the organic carbon content of sediments are the bases used to estimate the amount of carbon currently stored as clathrates. The estimate of about 11,000 Gt of carbon for ocean sediments, and about 400 Gt for sediments under permafrost regions is in rough accord with an independent estimate by Kvenvolden of 10,000 Gt.The shallowness of the clathrate zone of stability makes clathrates vulnerable to surface disturbances. Warming by ocean flooding of exposed continental shelf, and changes in pressure at depth, caused, for example, by sea-level drop, destabilize clathrates under the ocean, while ice-cap growth stabilizes clathrates under the ice cap. The time scale for thermal destabilization is set by the thermal properties of sediments and is on the order of thousands of years. The time required to fix methane in clathrates as a result of surface cooling is much longer, requiring several tens of thousands of years. The sensitivity of clathrates to surface change, the time scales involved, and the large quantities of carbon stored as clathrate indicate that clathrates may have played a significant role in modifying the composition of the atmosphere during the ice ages. The release of methane and its subsequent oxidation to carbon dioxide may be responsible for the observed swings in atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations during glacial times. Because methane and carbon dioxide are strong infrared absorbers, the release and trapping of methane by clathrates contribute strong feedback mechanisms to the radiative forcing of climate that results from earth's orbital variations.Gordon J. MacDonald is Vice President and Chief Scientist of The MITRE Corporation, 7525 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102.     

Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates

In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi:, 2009) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate.     

Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates

Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs). Statistical treatments of multi-model uncertainties are often limited to simple ESM averaging approaches. Sometimes models are weighted by how well they reproduce historical climate observations. Here, we propose a novel approach to multi-model combination and uncertainty quantification. Rather than averaging a discrete set of models, our approach samples from a continuous distribution over a reduced space of simple model parameters. We fit the free parameters of a reduced-order climate model to the output of each member of the multi-model ensemble. The reduced-order parameter estimates are then combined using a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model. The result is a multi-model distribution of reduced-model parameters, including climate sensitivity. In effect, the multi-model uncertainty problem within an ensemble of ESMs is converted to a parametric uncertainty problem within a reduced model. The multi-model distribution can then be updated with observational data, combining two independent lines of evidence. We apply this approach to 24 model simulations of global surface temperature and net top-of-atmosphere radiation response to abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide, and four historical temperature data sets. Our reduced order model is a 2-layer energy balance model. We present probability distributions of climate sensitivity based on (1) the multi-model ensemble alone and (2) the multi-model ensemble and observations.     

Projected changes in extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in Côte d’Ivoire under future climates

This study analyzes projected changes in seasonal extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in the investigation area (Côte d’Ivoire) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. To this end, a multi-model ensemble of fourteen CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations is used during the three stages of the West African Monsoon (WAM) season (April–June (AMJ), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND)). The results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire is subject to a robust increase of cumulative intensity of precipitation associated with an amplification of extreme precipitation events during the WAM. In particular during JAS, a substantial increase in extreme precipitation reaching up to 50–60% compared to the reference mean value prevails in the western and coastal areas in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, AMJ season is dominated by an increase in dry spell length of about 12% and 17% in the near future and 20% and 30% in the far future in the entire country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, albeit considerable uncertainties. OND considered as the post-monsoon season is mostly characterized by a robust decrease in dry spell length more marked in the southwest in the RCP8.5 scenario during the far future. These results suggest that agricultural production and particularly cocoa plantations in the southwestern regions could be at the risk of flooding events and that water stress remains a threat for cocoa, coffee, and other cash crop plantations in the eastern regions.     

Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climates

Summary ?Monthly precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network for 42 stations in Morocco and its vicinity are investigated with respect to baroclinicity, storm track and cyclone activity, moisture transports, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variations, and different circulation types by means of correlation and composite studies. The results are related to a climate change scenario from an ECHAM4/OPYC3 transient greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulation. Precipitation in northwestern Morocco shows a clear link to the baroclinic activity over the North Atlantic during boreal winter (DJF). In large precipitation months the North Atlantic storm track is shifted southward, more westerly and northwesterly circulation situations occur and moisture transports from the Atlantic are enhanced. The occurrence of local cyclones and upper-level troughs is more frequent than in low precipitation months. The negative correlation to the NAO is relatively strong, especially with Gibraltar as a southern pole (−0.71). The northward shift of the storm track and eastward shift of the Azores High predicted by the ECHAM model for increasing GHG concentrations would therefore be associated with decreasing precipitation and potentially serious impacts for the future water supply for parts of Morocco. In the region south of the Atlas mountains, moisture transports from the Atlantic along the southern flank of the Atlas Mountains associated with cyclones west of Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula can be identified as a decisive factor for precipitation. Northeastern Morocco and Northwestern Algeria, however, is rather dominated by the influence of cyclones over the Western Mediterranean that are associated with a strong northwesterly moisture transport. As both regions appear to be less dependent on the North Atlantic storm track and more on local processes, a straight forward interpretation of the large-scale changes predicted by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 cannot be done without the application of down-scaling methods in the future. Received July 19, 2001; revised May 31, 2002     

An analysis of precipitation climatology in Jordan

Summary ?One of the most important features in analysing the climatology of any region is to study the precipitation and its periodicity of different harmonics in order to study the behavior of the observed data. In this study the amplitude of frequencies, phase angle and basic statistical parameters are calculated in order to depict spatial characteristics of precipitation over Jordan. Precipitation records of 17 stations were chosen according to climatic regions of Jordan. The first and second harmonic analyses explain more than 90% of the precipitation variation in Jordan effectively. The amplitudes of the first and second harmonic were calculated in order to describe the climatic regions in the country. The maximum amplitudes were found in the northern mountainous region. The phase angle representing the time of maximum rainfall is also used in the form of a contour chart. It is found that Jordan has its main rainfall season in winter with maximum around January. The coefficient of variation shows the high variability of rainfall of the country. Received February 4, 2002; revised August 1, 2002; accepted August 6, 2002     

Understanding and partitioning future climates for Australian regions from CMIP3 using ocean warming indices

The patterns of large-scale climate change over the 21st century simulated by 23 CMIP3 global climate models are analyzed to provide understanding of the range of projected temperature T and precipitation P changes for Australia published in 2007. Means of change, standardized by the global warming, within each of 11 regions are calculated for each model. Correlations between regions across the 23 models indicate that the changes are rather coherent across much of the mainland. The all-Australian average changes are also well correlated with a pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures. A Pacific-Indian Dipole index, representing this pattern, correlates strongly with Australian P. It also correlates well with variables in Southeast Asia. The global warming itself correlates well with Australian warming. These two indices of large-scale ocean warming are used to partition the 23 models into four representative future climates. For Australia overall, these can be described as much warmer and drier, much warmer, warmer and drier, and warmer. The four climates span much of the range of the earlier Australian projections over most of the continent. Further, they may be reproduced by a downscaling model forced with the SST anomalies. An assessment of the realism of the ocean pattern changes has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of projections, both for Australia and beyond.     

Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km³/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.     

The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates

The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated for various climate scenario runs, using data from the CMIP3 archive of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Apart from atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the salt flux into the Atlantic basin that is carried by the MOC determines whether the MOC is in the single or multiple equilibria regime. This salt advection feedback is analyzed by diagnosing the freshwater and salt budgets for the combined Atlantic and Arctic basins. Consistent with the finding that almost all coupled climate models recover from hosing experiments, it is found that most models feature a negative salt advection feedback in their pre-industrial climate: freshwater perturbations are damped by this feedback, excluding the existence of a stable off-state for the MOC. All models feature enhanced evaporation over the Atlantic basin in future climates, but for a moderate increase in radiative forcing (B1 and 2 CO₂ scenarios), there is a decrease of the fresh water flux carried by the MOC into the Atlantic (the deficit is made up by increased fresh water transport by the gyre circulation). In this forcing regime the salt advection feedback becomes less negative: for three models from an ensemble of eight it is positive in a 2 CO₂ climate, while two models feature a positive feedback in the pre-industrial climate. For even warmer climates (A1B-equilibrium and 4 CO₂) the salt feedback becomes more negative (damping) again. It is shown that the decrease in northward fresh water transport at 34°S by the MOC (in B1-equilibrium and 2 CO₂) is due to a reduction of the inflow of intermediate waters relative to thermocline waters, associated with a robust shoaling of the MOC in future, warmer climates. In A1B and 4 CO₂ climates northward freshwater transport increases again. The MOC keeps shoaling, but both intermediate and thermocline water masses freshen.     

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (?22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.     

Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth’s climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum.     

区块链技术在教育领域的应用现状与展望

区块链本质上的去中心化和安全特性,使得其很适合于解决目前教育领域面临的困难.本文首先介绍了区块链的基本技术原理,包括区块的结构和区块链的构成、区块链技术平台的体系结构、区块链的分类、共识算法、智能合约.接着分析了目前教育领域发展的终身教育和跨地区教育的新形势,以及传统数字化教育系统面临的主要问题.然后从教育相关信息的多方共享和验证、学习过程跟踪、激励和学习路径塑造、学习评估、教育管理与决策辅助等几个方面对区块链技术在教育领域的应用现状进行了介绍和分析.最后总结了目前区块链技术应用到教育领域的主要问题,并展望了未来的发展方向.