完善气象部门经营性国有资产管理的思考

气象科技产业走向社会,必然使为公益事业服务的非经营性国有资产投放到商品生产和经营活动中。这些资产具备了经营性国有资产的两个特点：需要按市场经济的客观规律运行;具有保值增值的功能。但是,长期以来,国家比较重视对企业经营性国有资产的管理,而对事业单位非经营性资产投入到经营后的管理存在“缺位”现象。就气象部门而言,到目前为止,对各产业经营组织使用的国有资产还没有一个比较完备的管理规定。产业经营无偿占用国家土地、房屋、车辆、设备等,不计成本,不提折旧,也不核算盈亏。没有建立经营性资产维修更新的资金渠道,…     

气象事业单位内部会计控制机制浅析

气象事业单位分为行政执行、社会公益(包括纯公益性、准公益性)和开发经营三类。不同类别事业单位财务管理、核算的重点和要求不同，其内部会计控制重点、目标、内容和方法也有所差异。大型纯公益性及准公益性事业单位具有事业单位的典型特征，即使用公共财政资金，经营性资产较少，财政预算资金是事业单位资金来源主体。事业单位资金来源可分成三类：一类是财政预算安排，二类是单位的对外创收，三类是单位股权投资形成的股权收益。按照目前政策要求，后两类也必须纳入单位部门预算，即全部定性为财政资金，加强对这两类资金的收支管理与内部控制已成必然。     

气象事业单位内部会计控制机制浅析

气象事业单位分为行政执行、社会公益(包括纯公益性、准公益性)和开发经营三类.不同类别事业单位财务管理、核算的重点和要求不同,其内部会计控制重点、目标、内容和方法也有所差异.大型纯公益性及准公益性事业单位具有事业单位的典型特征,即使用公共财政资金,经营性资产较少,财政预算资金是事业单位资金来源主体.事业单位资金来源可分成三类:一类是财政预算安排,二类是单位的对外创收,三类是单位股权投资形成的股权收益.按照目前政策要求,后两类也必须纳入单位部门预算,即全部定性为财政资金,加强对这两类资金的收支管理与内部控制已成必然.     

气象事业单位经营性资产会计处理方法的探讨

为适应社会主义市场经济体制建立和发展，自1998年1月1日起实施了新的《事业单位会计制度》、《事业单位会计准则》与《事业单位会计规则》，事业单位会计核算的基础及核算的范畴发生根本性的变化。规范了事业单位的经济核算行为，拉近了气象事业单位与市场经济体制相适应的距离，促进了气象事业的发展。但还存在一些值得推敲和探讨的问题，如气象事业单位经营性资产是否应计提固定资产折旧的问题。     

如何加强“存货”核算与管理

1引言“存货”是国际上通用的一个名称，也是企业财务会计制度上使用的一个概念。1996年国务院批准的《事业单位财务规则》中引用了这个概念，并提出核算和管理原则。所谓“存货”是指事业单位在开展业务及其他活动中为耗用而储存的资产，包括材料、燃料、包装物和低值易耗品等。我们单位负责供应全省气象系统业务所需设备及各类消耗器材和设备维修备件、检定备件，是核算存货量较大的单位。国家为了气象事业发展，每年投入大量资金用于购量储备业务所需器材。就我省而言，每年省局拨给此项经费助多万元，但因物价上涨等因素，这些资金远远…     

气象科技服务与产业经营性资产保值增值管理初探

通过对气象科技服务产业实体与经营性资产保值增值现状进行分析，提出有形资产和无形资产分类保值增值管理模式和量化保值增值考核指标。     

规范固定资产管理防止国有资产流失

气象事业单位财产是国有资产的重要组成部分,通常称之为非经营性国有资产。这部分资产虽然不像经营性资产那样以营利为目的,但也是促进气象事业发展必备的物质基础。随着我站业务的不断发展,国有资产无论是从数量、价值量及管理形态上均发生了重大变化。面对国有资产存量大量增加,资产来源渠道的日益增多,加强气象部门的国有资产管理,维护国有资产的安全和完整性,提高资产的使用效益,管好、用好单位的国有资产,使其发挥应有的效能,已成为摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。我站通过对单位进行清产核资工作,摸清了“家底”,为编制部门预算提供了真…     

对事业单位非独立经营活动会计核算的探讨

1引言经国务院批准，财政部1996年8号令颁布了《事业单位财务规则》（以下简称《规则》），并规定从1997年1月1日起执行。在《规则》中，对事业单位在专业业务活动及其辅助活动之外开展非独立经营活动的会计核算的原则做了明确规定：一是经营收支要配比，二是要计算经营成果。这是与核算事业收支情况的根本区别。为了更好地实施《规则》，正确反映非独立经营活动核算财务状况和成果，需要建立具体的会计核算方法。2设置非独立经营活动核算的会计核算科目设置“经营收入”和“经营支出”一级会计科目。“经营收入”和“经营支出”账户按非独…     

电视气象节目制作中演播室灯光技术

青海影视中心结束了长期以来实行“拉洋片”的历史，电视天气预报实现了主持人预报，为此，省局投资专门设计装修了“演播室”。这就在摄像中对人物面部的灯光强、弱，灯位的布局有较高的要求。     

关于大气“记忆”的大气环流模式模拟研究

通过２种大气环流模式（ＧＣＭ）的数值模拟,研究了大气对于赤道东太平洋海温（ＳＳＴ）异常外强迫的“记忆”问题。结果表明,大气对外强迫的“记忆”比传统意义的“记忆”要长得多,这是因为外强迫通过影响大气内部动力过程而激发产生了低频振荡（即大气低频遥响应）,使得外强迫的影响可持续相当长的时间,大气对外强迫的“记忆”也就变得相当长。     

压缩天然气汽车加气站静电危害防护

从1985年开始,中国气象部门开始提供专业气象信息的有偿服务,气象经济也由此产生。气象信息所蕴含的巨大经济价值已成为经济学研究的新领域。随着中国加入WTO,气象经济这一新领域受到了种种冲击。面对来自内部的重重羁绊和外部的种种压力,我国的气象经济应如何发展,已成为每一个气象人深思的问题。利用行业优势,借助规模效应,通过配套体系逐步完善气象服务,把真正的市场营销交给更专业气象经纪人,打破气象工作的局限性,已成为中国气象经济发展的动力所在。     

A practitioner's guide to a low-carbon economy: lessons from the UK

Drawing primarily on the UK experience, five practical lessons are identified for policy makers who seek to decarbonize their economies. First, decarbonization needs a solid legal basis to give it credibility and overcome time inconsistency problems. Second, putting a price on carbon is essential, but low-carbon policies also have to address wider market, investment, and behavioural failures. This in turn raises issues of policy complexity and coordination. Third, the low-carbon economy is likely to be highly electrified. Clean electricity could be a cost-effective way of decarbonizing many parts of the economy, including transport, heating, and parts of industry. Decarbonization therefore starts in the power sector. Fourth, the low-carbon transition is primarily a revolution of production and not consumption. Both supply-side innovation and demand-side adjustments in lifestyle and behaviour are needed, though the former should dominate. Fifth, the transition to a low-carbon economy is economically and technologically feasible. Achieving it is a question of policy competence and having the political will to drive economic and social change.

Policy relevance

Practically all major GHG emitters now have climate change legislation on their statute books. Given what is at stake, and the complexity of the task at hand, it is important that policy makers learn from each other and establish a code of good low-carbon practice. The main lessons from the UK are distilled and presented. Carbon policy is considered for key sectors, such as electricity, buildings, and transport, and possible decarbonization paths are also outlined. It is shown that the transition to a low-carbon economy is economically and technologically feasible. Achieving it is primarily a question of policy competence and political will. This in turn means that climate change action needs a strong legislative basis to give the reforms statutory legitimacy. Low-carbon policies will have to address a wide range of market, investment and behavioural failures. Putting a price on carbon is an essential starting point, but only one of many policy reforms.     

From Lima to Paris,Part 1: The Lima Hangover

A growing body of literature suggests that an economic case may exist for investment in large-scale climate change mitigation. At the same time, however, investment is persistently falling well short of the levels required to prevent dangerous climate change, suggesting that economically attractive mitigation opportunities are being missed. To understand whether and where these opportunities exist, this article contrasts macro-level analyses of climate finance with micro-level bottom-up analyses of the scale and composition of low-carbon investment opportunities in four case study developing world cities. This analysis finds that there are significant opportunities to redirect existing finance streams towards more cost-effective, lower-carbon options. This would mobilize substantial new investment in climate mitigation. Two key explanations are proposed for the failure to exploit these opportunities. First, the composition of cost-effective measures is highly context-specific, varying from place to place and sector to sector. Macro-level analyses of climate finance flows are therefore poor indicators of the micro-level landscape for low-carbon investment. Specific local research is therefore needed to understand the opportunities for cost-effective mitigation at that level. Second, many opportunities require enabling governance arrangements that are not currently in place. Mobilizing new low-carbon investment and closing the ‘climate finance gap' therefore requires attention to policy frameworks and financing mechanisms that can facilitate the exploitation of cost-effective low-carbon options.

Policy relevance

The importance of increasing investment in climate mitigation, especially in developing nations, is well established. This article scrutinizes four city-level studies of the scope for cost-effective low-carbon investment, and finds that significant opportunities are not being exploited in developing world cities. Enabling governance structures may help to mainstream climate considerations into investments by local actors (households, businesses and government agencies). While climate finance distributed through international bodies such as the Green Climate Fund may not always be a suitable vehicle to invest directly in disaggregated, local-level measures, it can provide the incentives to develop these governance arrangements.     

城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究

在中国经济步入新常态之际,为了研究城镇化背景下的长期碳排放趋势,构建了人口变动与能源系统互动的综合分析框架与社会经济-能源系统模型。结果显示,从2014年至2050年,预计有3亿人口从农村流向城市,并呈现从中小型城市逐步向大型和特大型城市汇集的趋势。人口流动趋势与人民生活质量改善结合,推动中国基础设施建设、工业产品生产和能源服务需求增长。基准情景下,2050年中国一次能源消费总量达到84亿tce,能源相关CO₂排放达到176亿t,比2013年增长83%;而在低碳转型情景下,通过技术创新,2050年中国一次能源消费需求可以控制在61亿tce左右,CO₂排放在2020—2025年间达峰,2050年比基准情景降低78%。低碳转型过程中,非化石能源电力和能效技术的减排潜力最大,工业和电力部门率先在2020年达峰,建筑和交通 ^①（①按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,工业、建筑、交通均属于终端能源消费部门,其中建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗;交通部门能耗指所有交通活动能耗,既包括交通运输业营运类运输工具的交通能耗,也包括私人、公务非营运类运输工具的交通能耗 ^[1]。）将在2030年左右达峰。实现低碳转型所需新增固定投资占GDP的1.5%,不会给国民经济带来重大负担。中国实施新型城镇化战略具有技术和经济可行性。     

Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change

We find that approximately a quarter of the world’s productive capital could be sensitive to climate; therefore, this capital faces the risk of accelerated obsolescence in a world warming by an average of 0.2 °C per decade. We examine the question of optimal adaptation to climate change in a vintage capital growth model without uncertainty. Along the optimal pathway, adaptation is proactive with an anticipation period of approximately twenty years. While there is additional investment in this scenario compared with a no-climate-change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is low relative to the potential losses from maladaptation. Over-investment in protection capital allows the economy to be consistently well-adapted to climate; thus, such a policy prevents transient maladaptation costs. Sensitivity analysis with an integrated assessment model suggests that costs could be ten times larger if adaptation only begins after vulnerable sectors are impacted.     

构建中国应对气候变化的低碳经济发展模式

 低碳经济是一种新型的发展模式,是一个涉及经济、政治、社会、科技、环境乃至国际合作诸多领域的系统性问题。发展低碳经济是我国应对气候变化与环境危机的根本出路,解决好经济发展和环境保护的矛盾是构建我国低碳经济发展模式的根本原则。构建我国低碳经济发展模式关键在于制度保障,当前应特别强调和发挥经济政策在发展低碳经济中的引导作用。     

Adaptive capacity in Tanzanian Maasailand: Changing strategies to cope with drought in fragmented landscapes

This study examines the ways in which the adaptive capacity of households to climatic events varies within communities and is mediated by institutional and landscape changes. We present qualitative and quantitative data from two Maasai communities differentially exposed to the devastating drought of 2009 in Northern Tanzania. We show how rangeland fragmentation combined with the decoupling of institutions and landscapes are affecting pastoralists’ ability to cope with drought. Our data highlight that mobility remains a key coping mechanism for pastoralists to avoid cattle loss during a drought. However, mobility is now happening in new ways that require not only large amounts of money but new forms of knowledge and connections outside of customary reciprocity networks. Those least affected by the drought, in terms of cattle lost, were those with large herds who were able to sell some of their cattle and to pay for private access to pastures outside of Maasai areas. Drawing on an entitlements framework, we argue that the new coping mechanisms are not available to all, could be making some households more vulnerable to climate change, and reduce the adaptive capacity of the overall system as reciprocity networks and customary institutions are weakened. As such, we posit that adaptive capacity to climate change is uneven within and across communities, is scale-dependent, and is intimately tied to institutional and landscape changes.     

Economic Development and Emission Control over the Long Term: The ICLIPS Aggregated Economic Model

In integrated assessments of climate change, greenhouse-gasemissions and climate change impacts provide the linkages betweenthe world economy and the climate system. Key climatic processesoperate at the scales of centuries. This requires highlyaggregated models for portraying the dynamics of the economicsystem. An extended Ramsey-type optimal growth model is presentedas the appropriate tool to be integrated with a reduced-formclimate model in the ICLIPS integrated assessment. Theeleven-region model of the world economy involves exogenouspopulation and endogenous investment dynamics with productivityprogress based on a technological diffusion model. World regionsare linked via intertemporal trade flows of the compositeconsumption/investment good, capital mobility, and emission permittrading. Coupled with the ICLIPS Climate Model, the AggregatedEconomic Model can determine corridors of permitted long-termcarbon emission paths or, as primarily discussed in this paper,specific cost-effective emission trajectories. The sensitivity ofmitigation costs to externally specified climate change/impactconstraints and to assumptions about non-CO₂ greenhouse-gasemissions is also discussed.     

Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies

Russia has significant potential for reducing its carbon emissions. However, investment in new low-carbon technologies has significant risks. Ambiguous energy and climate policy in Russia, along with deterioration of the country's investment climate, create investment barriers that are well described in qualitative terms in the literature. This paper attempts to provide a quantitative analysis of these barriers. For this numerical experiment, we apply the RU-TIMES model. Using a real options methodology, we estimate the risk-adjusted cost of capital in the Russian energy sector (including energy production and consumption technologies represented in the TIMES framework) to be approximately 43% (including a risk-free interest rate) and demonstrate the high risk of investment into energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Any future low-carbon emissions pathway depends on the ability of the Russian government to reduce climate and energy policy uncertainties, and to reduce financial risks through improvements of the general investment climate.

Key policy insights

• The high cost of capital investment into Russian energy production and consumption may prevent the adoption of new energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies.

• These investment risks, if not addressed, will delay Russia's low-carbon transition for the coming decades.

• Adopting a clear and unambiguous long-term climate and energy policy is important to reduce these risks and alleviate some of the barriers to the new technologies.

• The first step could be ratification of the Paris Agreement and adoption of a long-term emission target for the period up to 2050.

     

1960—2009年广西霾日时空变化特征

利用1960—2009年广西80个地面观测站资料,运用EOF、线性倾向估计等统计方法,分析了近50年广西霾日数的时空变化特征。结果表明:近50年广西霾日数总体呈上升趋势,与该地区人类活动和经济发展引起的污染排放增长密切相关;空间分布呈现出主要城市及其周边地区霾日多,边远地区及沿海地区霾日少的特点;广西霾天气主要发生在秋、冬季,以轻微霾 (能见度为5~10 km) 为主,且霾天气发生时的相对湿度8成以上介于70%~90%;除了空气污染之外,近50年风速呈下降趋势可能也导致更多的霾天气。