顾及开发强度的长江中下游土地变化模拟及规划对策

土地变化模拟能够判断不同规划政策对当前土地空间格局的影响.传统土地变化模拟侧重于从土地利用/覆盖类型预测土地变化情况,较少关注土地的开发强度.本文以长江中下游为例,在土地利用/覆盖的基础上构建一套考虑开发强度的土地系统,聚焦长江中下游价值突出的两种土地类型提供的服务,在共享社会经济路径下实现同时满足两种土地服务需求的土地变化模拟,并对结果进行对比分析.模拟结果显示,未来人口增加会使当前建设用地面积扩张,向着更加集约的方向变化;同时,人口的增加会带来粮食需求,农业用地中开发强度最高的高利用率耕地面积扩张.模拟结果可为区域规划提供对策和建议.     

长江流域区域经济发展的若干思考

长江流经 1 1个省市 ,支流散布于 8省浸润中国1 /5的土地。在世界大河中迳流量仅次于亚马逊河和刚果河。本文讨论长江在未来经济发展上的重要性和一些问题。1　能源2 0 0 1年 ,中国能源消费 ,煤炭、石油、天然气所占的比例分别为 67,2 4 ,3。世界平均分别为 2 8,38,2 4。中国煤炭消费量太高 ,而石油和天然气偏低。中国石油储量仅占世界 3%,而天然气之比例更低。自 1 993年以后 ,中国开始输入石油。 2 0 0 0年石油进口量占消费量 1 /3。世界石油储量将于 2 0 1 0年开始下降至 2 0 5 0年 ,将消耗殆尽。     

Measuring Network Configuration of the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration: Based on Modified Radiation Model

The objective of this study is to develop a framework for re-examining and re-defining the classical concepts of spatial interaction and reorganization in the urban system. We introduce a modified radiation model for spatial interactions, coupled with migration big data, transport accessibility algorithm, and city competitiveness assessment for efficient distribution of the inter-city flow through the network. The Yangtze River Middle Reaches(YRMR) urban agglomeration(UA) is chosen as the case study region to systematically identify and measure its spatial configuration and to gain insights for other UAs‘ sustainable development in China. The results are also compared with those computed by the classical gravity model to systematically discuss the applicability of spatial interaction laws and models, and related practical policies for regional sustainable development are discussed based on the findings as well. The conclusions are highlighted below: 1) Combining with the ?city network paradigm‘ and ?central place theory‘ can better express the spatial configurations of city systems in the context of ?space of flows‘; 2) The results validate the potentialities of a multi-analysis framework to assess the spatial configurations of city network based on the improved radiation model and network analysis tools; 3) The applications of spatial interaction models should be considered according to the specific geographical entity and its spatial scale.     

济南城市发展的工程地质适宜性评价研究

根据济南市总体发展规划,针对济南城区和400km2的规划新区,结合济南地区地质条件和地形、地貌特征,通过对济南地区工程地质特征分析、不良工程地质问题及地质灾害评价,论述了济南地区不同地段的工程地质特点及工程地质性质,利用加权平均值法对工程建设适宜性进行了评价,将济南城区和400km2的规划新区划分为适宜区、较适宜区、适宜性差区和不适宜建设区四类。根据济南城市规划,划分为中心城区、东部产业带、西部片区、北部片区4个主要功能区,按不同区域工程地质条件对城市规划建设提出了建设建议。     

A new formula of recovery factor for non-equilibrium transport of graded suspended sediment in the Middle Yangtze River

Suspended sediment concentrations in the Middle Yangtze River(MYR) reduced greatly after the Three Gorges Project operation, causing the composition of bed material to coarsen continuously.However, little is known about the non-equilibrium transport of graded suspended sediment owing to different bed material compositions(BMCs) along the MYR, and it is necessary to determine the magnitude of recovery factor. Using the Markov stochastic process in conjunction with the hiding-exposure effect of no...     

长江中游城市群铁路可达性及经济联系空间格局演变

采用可达性水平评价、经济联系分析、块模型等方法,研究了2009、2018年长江中游城市群的铁路可达性和经济联系空间格局,结果显示:从2009到2018年,长江中游城市群的铁路可达性改善明显,城市通达度提升,中心城市日常可达性范围扩大,尤其是1 h经济圈扩张明显,各城市的加权平均旅行时间显著降低,呈现"核心-边缘"格局,但差异增大;长江中游城市群形成以武汉、长沙、南昌为核心的放射状经济联系空间格局,且武汉、长沙的中心作用较南昌更明显,主要高铁沿线形成较高水平的经济联系带,剩余绝大多数城市间经济联系水平较低;长江中游城市群可划分为4个凝聚子群,其中环长株潭子群、武汉城市圈子群内部经济联系较强,4个子群内部联系显著高于相互联系,区域网络化格局尚未形成.     

硫酸盐气溶胶对长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响

为了研究人为硫酸盐气溶胶增长对1970年代末长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响,使用全球气候模式（GFDL—AM2）,对硫酸盐直接气候效应进行了模拟。结果表明,硫酸盐气溶胶增长引起的降水年代际变化与观测到的降水转型有很好的时空一致性;观测中包括副热带高压西伸南移、中国东部近地面异常北风等夏季风年代际减弱信号以及对应的垂直温度、上升运动分布等均能很好地被模式再现。机制上,硫酸盐气溶胶通过引起负辐射强迫,造成中国中东部的大部分地区地面到对流层中层降温,海陆热力对比减小,使东亚夏季风减弱,雨带容易在长江中下游停留,从而导致该区域降水增多。于是,硫酸盐气溶胶增多对长江中下游降水年代际转型有重要贡献。     

我国长江中下游农业区冬闲田的遥感监测分析

 近20年以来,随着我国经济结构的调整和农村劳动力的转移,部分地区冬闲田的面积呈明显增长态势。为了科学、合理及高效地利用冬闲田资源,本研究以长江中下游农业区为实验区,利用长时间序列NDVI数据,结合研究区耕地空间分布和农作物在出苗期和成熟期NDVI变化特征,构建了NDVI动态阈值法的冬闲田遥感监测方法,进而对研究区2007至2008年冬闲田的空间分布和闲置时间进行了提取分析。研究发现,2007至2008年,我国长江中下游农业区冬闲田总面积为20.55万km²,占耕地总面积的45.49%。冬闲田集中分布于研究区北部和西北部的江苏、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南和江西的西北部地区,其中,湖北、湖南和江苏是冬闲田分布面积最多的省份,3省冬闲田面积占了研究区冬闲田总面积的53.41%。     

基于多源数据的长江经济带内河港口区位优势度评估

内河港口是内河航运纽带的重要节点,评估内河港口的区位优势度对长江经济带港口基础设施建设等具有重要意义。以2021年长江沿岸内河港口为研究对象,采用多源数据,结合长江内河港口辐射范围内的3个指标并对原模型进行改进,结合AHP-EWM模型计算长江经济带长江沿岸28个港口的区位优势度,研究结果显示：① 除重庆和武汉以外,江苏省以外的其他省份港口辐射范围内交通网络密度都比较低;从交通干线影响度来看,分布比较均衡且数值较为相近;而城市经济影响力的空间分布较为无序;② 根据区位优势度的高低以及空间分布得出长江经济带货运港口空间格局为“三中心,一组团”的空间格局;③ 将内河港口按长江岸线所属省份进行划分后发现：江西省3个港口区位优势度差异最小,但其优势度也整体偏低;安徽省与江西省类似;江苏省整体优势度较高且差异小,湖北省的优势度差异最大,表明存在基础设施建设不均衡等问题且亟需改善。研究成果可对长江经济带内各个港口范围内基础设施建设、道路交通规划、港口选址等方面提供指导性意见帮助打通铁路、高等级公路进港“最后一公里”。     

Assessment of Habitat Suitability in the Upper Reaches of the Min River in China

Habitat richness influences and even determines biological diversity. Plant habitat suitability assessment can provide technical guidance and information support for ecological restoration. Thirteen factors in three categories of terrain, meteorology and soil were chosen to build a habitat suitability assessment index framework in the Upper Reaches of the Min River, based on the local natural environment and the actual influencing factors of vegetative growth. Combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy method, which were used to calculate weights of indexes, habitat suitability was studied by using a multi-objective linear weighting model and geographic information systems(GIS) spatial analysis techniques. The assessment results are as follows: Altitude, soil stability, aspect and slope have more important effects on plant habitat suitability in the Upper Reaches of the Min River, and their weights are 0.311, 0.260, 0.198 and 0.125, respectively. Suitable and sub-suitable habitats cover 4431.80 km2 and 6171.12 km2, respectively; most of which are distributed along both sides of rivers and have higher suitability. Unsuitable habitats cover the largest area(6679.76 km2), accounting for 29.83% of the whole area; and the worst unsuitable habitats are 5107.23 km2(22.81%); they account for more than half of the studyarea. These results indicate that the plant habitat in the Upper Reaches of the Min River is poor and ecological restoration is both urgent and difficult. Therefore, based on the principle of taking measures suitable to the habitat in ecological restoration projects, ecological and engineering measures should be combined to have better effects, while increasing the strength of ecological protection.