Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast China via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern China. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern China. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.     

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.     

全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估

观测事实揭示,春季Hadley环流在年际时间尺度上与东亚夏季风环流和降水具有密切联系.在未来全球变暖背景下,春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流和降水的这种年际关系是否会发生变化？针对该问题,本文在评估的基础上选取五个气候模式,分析了A1B排放情景下春季北半球Hadley环流年际变率的未来变化及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的年际关系.多模式集合(MME)预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,与20世纪末期(1970—1999年)相比,到21世纪末期(2070—2099年),春季北半球Hadley环流的年际变率强度将减弱,减弱幅度达32%.随着春季Hadley环流年际变率的减弱,其与夏季西太平洋副热带高压和东亚夏季风强度的联系将变弱.MME模拟结果还显示,春季Hadley环流与夏季东亚西风急流和降水的关系也降低,但各单个模式间存在较大差异.     

Climate control on summer precipitation in the Source Region of Three Rivers,China: East or South Asian summer monsoon?

ABSTRACT

The Source Region of Three Rivers (SRTR) has experienced wetter summer seasons than before in recent decades due to climate change. As the most important source of surface water, precipitation plays a key role in supplying the three largest rivers. This study investigates the impacts of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on precipitation in the SRTR. Using wavelet analysis tools, we found that: (i) summer precipitation in the SRTR showed notably different responses to the monsoon variability among the 14 stations studied; (ii) the influence of the EASM and SASM on summer precipitation was stronger in the southern and eastern SRTR; but (iii) this influence quickly dampened from southeast to northwest and became almost indiscernible in the northwestern SRTR. This research may help to increase the accuracy of long-term monsoon-rainfall prediction and improve water resource management in the SRTR.     

Indian summer monsoon and El Nino

The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the contingency table. The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and 1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887, 1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal. The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies in the monsoon over India.     

Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall

Summary The south Asian summer monsoon from June to September accounts for the greater part of the annual rainfall over most of India and southeast Asia. The evolution of the summer and winter monsoon circulations over India is examined on the basis of the surface and upper air data of stations across India. The salient features of the seasonal reversals of temperature and pressure gradients and winds and the seasonal and synoptic fluctuations of atmospheric humidity are discussed. The space-time variations of rainfall are considered with the help of climatic pentad rainfall charts and diagrams. The rainfall of several north and central Indian stations shows a minimum around mid-August and a maximum around mid-February which seem to be connected with the extreme summer and winter positions of the ITCZ and the associated north-south shifts in the seasonal circulation patterns. Attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the monsoon rainfall that emerge from a study of daily and hourly rainfall of selected stations. Diurnal variations of temperature, pressure, wind and rainfall over the monsoon belt are briefly treated.     

Relations between oxygen stable isotopic ratios in precipitation and relevant meteorological factors in southwest China

The correlations of isotopic ratios in precipitation with temperature, air pressure and humidity at dif- ferent altitudes, in southwest China, are analyzed. There appear marked negative correlations for the δ 18O in precipitation with precipitation amount, vapor pressure and atmospheric precipitable water (PW) at Mengzi, Simao and Tengchong stations on synoptic timescale; the marked negative correlations between the δ 18O in precipitation and the diurnal mean temperature at 400 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa are different from the temperature effect in middle-high-latitude inland. Moreover, the notable positive correlation between the δ 18O in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td at different altitudes is found at the three stations. On annual timescale, the annual precipitation amount weighted mean δ 18O display the negative correlations not only with annual precipitation but also with annual mean temperature at 500 hPa. It can be deduced that, in the years with abnormally strong summer monsoon, more warm and wet air from low-latitude oceans is transported northward along the vapor channel located in southwest China and generates abnormally strong rainfall on the way. Meanwhile, the ab- normally strong condensation process will release more condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the rise of atmospheric temperature during rainfall, but decline of the δ 18O in precipitation. On the contrary, in the years with abnormally weak summer monsoon, the abnormally weak condensation process will release less condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the decline of atmos- pheric temperature during rainfall, but increase of the δ 18O in precipitation.     

Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19–25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12–18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19–25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four homogeneous regions. Thus the slight variations in the characteristics of intraseasonal monsoon rainfall over India is associated with variations in predictive skill of the coupled models and the MME-based predictions of intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations for 2–3 weeks, providing encouraging results. The MME forecast in 2010 is also able to provide useful guidance, well in advance, about an active September associated with a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and also the heavy rainfall over north Pakistan.     

赤道MJO活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979-2013年NCEP/DOE再分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料、美国NOAA日平均向外长波辐射资料和ERSST月平均海温资料,分析赤道大气季节内振荡(简称MJO)活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响及其与热带海温信号等的协同作用.结果表明,赤道MJO活动与南海夏季风爆发密切联系,MJO的湿位相(即对流活跃位相)处于西太平洋位相时,有利于南海夏季风爆发,而MJO湿位相处于印度洋位相时,则不利于南海夏季风爆发.赤道MJO活动影响南海夏季风爆发的物理过程主要是大气对热源响应的结果,当MJO湿位相处于西太平洋位相时,一方面热带西太平洋对流加强使潜热释放增加,导致处于热源西北侧的南海-西北太平洋地区对流层低层由于Rossby响应产生气旋性环流异常,气旋性环流异常则有利于西太平洋副热带高压的东退,另一方面菲律宾附近热源促进对流层高层南亚高压在中南半岛和南海北部的建立,使南海地区高层为偏东风,从而有利于南海夏季风建立;当湿位相MJO处于印度洋位相时,热带西太平洋对流减弱转为大气冷源,情况基本相反,不利于南海夏季风建立.MJO活动、孟加拉湾气旋性环流与年际尺度海温变化协同作用,共同对南海夏季风爆发迟早产生影响,近35年南海夏季风爆发时间与海温信号不一致的年份,基本上是由于季节转换期间的MJO活动特征及孟加拉湾气旋性环流是否形成而造成,因此三者综合考虑对于提高季风爆发时间预测水平具有重要意义.     

Long-Lead Prediction Skill of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR): an Application of Canonical Correlation Analysis

There is a statistical linkage between tropical outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR). A positive and significant correlation is observed over the surrounding areas of northeast Australia and the Arafura Sea during the months of January and February (J&F) which drops down as the lead month decreases. The OLR index as an area average over the surrounding areas of northeast Australia and the Arafura Sea is found to have 0.4 correlation with AISMR. The index is also found to be strongly correlated with the Indian monsoon index. In view of the teleconnection pattern, the OLR index is used for the development of statistical models using the concept of linear regression (LR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Potential of CCA over LR is observed for the prediction of seasonal rainfall over the northwest, west central and over the whole country as well. The seasonal rainfall predictability basically comes from the months of June and September.     

Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models’ outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO.     

亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化与中国旱涝的关系

利用1958～2002年的NCEP-R1和ERA-40逐日再分析资料以及中国160站点月平均降水资料探讨了亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化及其与中国降水异常的关系. 分析结果表明,亚洲夏季风水汽输送和中国夏季降水的异常主模态呈现显著的准两年变化周期. 当南亚夏季风纬向水汽输送偏强（弱）时,东亚—西北太平洋地区水汽输送的偶极型异常有利于长江中下游地区和江淮流域的水汽辐合负（正）异常与华南和华北地区的水汽辐合正（负）异常,从而引起中国东部的经向三极子雨型,即长江中下游地区和江淮流域的偏旱（涝）与华南和华北地区的偏涝（旱）. 1970s年代末之后,亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年代际减弱与西北太平洋地区水汽输送的偶极型异常相配合,导致长江中下游地区的持续偏涝与华南和华北地区的持续偏旱. 从中国夏季降水异常与水汽通量辐合异常的同相对应关系来看,ERA-40资料对亚洲夏季风水汽输送年际年代际变化的描述能力强于NCEP-R1资料.     

An 8.1Ma calcite record of Asian summer monsoon evolution on the Chinese central Loess Plateau

Carbonates in loess-red clay sequences consist mainly of calcite and dolomite. The EDTA analysis of carbonates in different size fractions and magnetic susceptibility reveal that calcite is a sensitive index of summer monsoon. The chemical analysis of carbonates and calcite from an 8.1 Ma loess-red clay sequence at Chaona on the Chinese central Loess Plateau shows that the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon experienced four stages, namely 8.1―5.5 Ma, 5.5―2.8 Ma, 2.8―1.5 Ma and 1.5―0 Ma, with increasing intensification and fluctuation, suggesting a possible combining impacts of uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and global changes on the Asian summer monsoon.     

基于WRF模式的青藏高原斜坡和平台加热影响亚洲夏季风的模拟研究

青藏高原大地形的热力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和发展具有重要的影响.本文利用较高分辨率的WRF区域模式,探讨了高原不同区域（斜坡和平台）的地形加热分别对南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风的影响.结果表明：高原南部喜马拉雅山脉的斜坡地形加热对其周围局地的环流形势和降水影响十分明显,是南亚夏季风北支分量形成和维持的主导因子,也是斜坡上气流爬坡和降水发生的必要条件.斜坡加热对东亚夏季风也有明显的增强作用,它不仅加强了中国东部低空西南季风环流,还会造成北部南下的异常干冷空气的响应.斜坡上的地形加热作用也是对流层高层暖中心位置维持在斜坡上空的一个重要原因.而高原平台加热对季风环流和降水的影响虽然没有喜马拉雅山脉斜坡加热那么显著,但是对南亚夏季风的影响范围更广,对经向哈得来环流影响更明显,能够调控高原以外更远处热带洋面上的西南季风环流.通过比较高原不同区域地形加热条件下的多种季风指数,进一步表明了高原地形加热对南亚和东亚夏季风均有增强作用,但是高原不同区域的地形加热对两类夏季风子系统又会产生不一样的影响.     

亚洲夏季平流层-对流层水汽交换年际变化与亚洲夏季风的联系

亚洲地区是物质由对流层向平流层输送的主要通道,在平流层-对流层交换中扮演着积极的角色. 本文主要利用卫星资料和欧洲中心ERA40再分析资料,借助Wei诊断模式研究亚洲地区夏季上对流层-下平流层(UTLS)水汽分布和平流层-对流层水汽交换特征,重点着眼于水汽交换的年际变化,并探讨其与亚洲夏季风的联系. 结果表明,季风区UTLS水汽较赤道地区偏多,且通过磁带记录信号的传播,可穿越对流层顶影响下平流层水汽的多寡. 夏季平流层-对流层水汽交换表现出明显的年际特征,其年际变化与亚洲季风强弱变化有密切联系,尤其与南亚夏季风的关系更为显著. 在亚洲夏季风影响下,亚洲地区出现异常的大气环流和垂直运动,从而影响平流层-对流层之间水汽的交换. 这些结果对认识其它大气成分的输送过程也具有重要的指示意义.     

Quaternary clay mineralogy in the northern South China Sea (ODP Site 1146)

Measurement of clay mineralogy at ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea (SCS) indicates that illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents increased during glacials and smectite content increased during interglacials. The smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio and the smectite abundance were determined as mineralogical indicators for the East Asian monsoon evolution. At a 10 ka timescale, prevailing southeasterly surface oceanic currents during interglacials transported more smectite from the south and east areas to the north, showing a strengthened summer monsoon circulation, whereas dominated counter-clockwise surface currents during glacials carried more illite and chlorite from Taiwan as well as from the Yangtze River via the Luzon Strait to the northern SCS, indicating a strongly intensified winter monsoon. Based on a 100 ka timescale, a linear correlation between the smectite/(illite+chlorite) ratio and the sedimentation rate reflects that the winter monsoon has prevailed in the northern SCS in the intervals 2000–1200 ka and 400–0 ka and the summer monsoon did the same in the interval 1200–400 ka. The evolution of the summer monsoon provides an almost linear response to the summer insolation of Northern Hemisphere, implying an astronomical forcing of the East Asian monsoon evolution.     

BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对于夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的模拟

亚洲-太平洋涛动是北半球夏季亚洲大陆和北太平洋副热带地区对流层中高层扰动温度场上大尺度的东西反相的遥相关现象,其异常变化与亚洲-太平洋地区夏季风气候有着密切的联系.基于欧洲中心的ERA-40再分析资料和国家气候中心BCC_CSM1.1（m）气候系统模式多年的数值模拟结果,本文主要评估了BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式对于夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的空间分布、指数的时间演变及与其变化所对应的亚洲地区夏季环流异常等方面的模拟能力,结果表明：BCC_CSM1.1（m）模式能够较好地模拟出北半球夏季对流层中高层扰动温度在亚-太地区中纬度存在的西高东低"跷跷板"现象;模式能够模拟出夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动指数的年际变率,但是不能模拟出该指数在20世纪60-70年代明显下降的年代际趋势;模式还能较好地模拟出亚洲-太平洋涛动高低指数年亚洲-太平洋地区夏季环流的异常：指数偏高年份,南亚高压增强,高空西风急流带和热带东风急流均加强,索马里越赤道气流增强,南亚热带季风和东亚副热带季风均增强,东亚季风低压槽加强,西北太平洋副热带高压增强,南亚和东亚北部降水增加,菲律宾地区、中国长江流域-朝鲜半岛-日本一带地区降水减少,反之亦然.     

Influence of southern oscillation index on the variability and predictability of Indian monsoon. A reappraisal

The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.     

Interpretation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation‐related precipitation anomalies in north‐western Borneo using isotopic tracers

We examined rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in northern Sarawak, Malaysia, using the oxygen isotopic composition of rainfall. Two precipitation‐sampling campaigns were conducted for isotope analysis: (a) at the Lambir Hill National Park (4.2° N, 114.0° E) from July 2004 to October 2006 and (b) at the Gunung Mulu National Park (3.9° N, 114.8° E) from January 2006 to July 2008. The records from these campaigns were merged with a previously published rainfall isotope dataset from Gunung Mulu site to create a 7‐year‐long record of the oxygen isotopic composition of Sarawak rainfall. The record exhibits clear intraseasonal variations (ISVs) with periods ranging from 10 to 70 days. The ISVs of 10‐ to 90‐day band‐pass filtered oxygen isotopic composition are linked to the synoptic‐scale precipitation anomalies over the southern South China Sea (SCS). The lead–lag correlation map of precipitation with the filtered oxygen isotope anomalies shows that an anomalous wet condition responsible for the decrease in oxygen isotopic composition appears over the SCS in association with the passage of north‐eastward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the summer monsoon season. The anomalous wet condition in spring is connected with eastward‐propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), whereas the sustained wet condition in winter is responsible for the occurrence of the Borneo vortex (BV) over the SCS. ENSO modulates the frequency of these synoptic conditions on a seasonal and longer time scale, showing a strong correlation between the seasonal isotopic anomalies and the Southern Oscillation index. We therefore discern, from the significant correlation between the isotope anomalies and area‐averaged Sarawak rainfall anomalies (R = ?0.65, p < 0.01), that ENSO‐related precipitation anomalies are linked to the seasonal modulation of the BSISO and MJO activity and BV genesis.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.