Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.     

Groundwater Runoff into the Gulf of Finland

Groundwater discharge into the Gulf of Finland is examined. Qualitative and quantitative estimates of groundwater runoff are given. It is established that, notwithstanding the relatively low rate of groundwater runoff, it has an essential effect on the environmental state of the coastal zone of the gulf.     

The contribution of benthic macrofauna to the nutrient filter in coastal lagoons

Human activities in coastal areas have increased the occurrence of eutrophication events, especially in vulnerable ecosystems such as coastal lagoons. Although we have a general knowledge of the consequences of eutrophication in these ecosystems, some efforts need to be made to understand biotic feedbacks that could modify the response of the environment to nutrient enrichment. The plant-mediated 'coastal filter' is one of the main factors that determine lagoonal efficiency in processing excess nutrients. In this context, the present paper examined the relative contribution of benthic macrofauna to the 'coastal filter' of a Mediterranean lagoon. The analysis of macrofaunal assemblages in the Mar Menor lagoon led to a clear differentiation between shallow areas of net nutrient recycling and exportation and deeper areas of net retention. These differences enhance nutrient removal from the water column, thus increasing the ecosystem's resistance to eutrophication.     

Field observations on correlation of fatty acid profiles between suspended particulate matter and green-lipped mussels in subtropical waters of Hong Kong

By analysis of the fatty acid profiles in mussel tissues and suspended particulate matter (SPM) in water, the present study showed a significant relationship of the trophic linkage between mussels and the SPM. At seven locations from inner to outer areas along the eutrophic Tolo Harbour and Tolo Channel, Hong Kong, the composition (as percentage of total fatty acids) of both monoenoic and polyunsaturated fatty acids in the tissues of green-lipped mussels Perna viridis and SPM in water had significant correlation (p<0.01). In particular, the composition of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n3) (as percentage of total fatty acids) in mussel tissues was statistically correlated with that in SPM (p<0.01), implying that mussels incorporate DHA, the biomarker of dinoflagellates. Principal component analysis further demonstrated that the fatty acid profiles of SPM were different among locations in the harbour, mid and outer channel of the study area, so were the mussel tissue fatty acid profiles. Cluster analysis of phytoplankton data also revealed the dominance of diatoms in the inner harbour and channel areas, whereas dinoflagellates were abundant in the outer channel waters. The possible implications of using benthic suspension feeders such as green-lipped mussels P. viridis for controlling phytoplankton abundance in coastal waters are discussed.     

Dynamic p-enrichment schemes for multicomponent reactive flows

We present a family of p-enrichment schemes. These schemes may be separated into two basic classes: the first, called fixed tolerance schemes, rely on setting global scalar tolerances on the local regularity of the solution, and the second, called dioristic schemes, rely on time-evolving bounds on the local variation in the solution. Each class of p-enrichment scheme is further divided into two basic types. The first type (the Type I schemes) enrich along lines of maximal variation, striving to enhance stable solutions in “areas of highest interest.” The second type (the Type II schemes) enrich along lines of maximal regularity in order to maximize the stability of the enrichment process. Each of these schemes are tested on three model systems. The first is an academic exact system where basic analysis is easily performed. Then we discuss a pair of application model problems arising in coastal hydrology. The first being a contaminant transport model, which addresses a declinature problem for a contaminant plume with respect to a bay inlet setting. And the second, a multicomponent chemically reactive flow model of estuary eutrophication arising in the Gulf of Mexico.     

Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways

We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.     

Increasing eutrophication in the coastal seas of China from 1970 to 2050

We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2–5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30–200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.     

Estimating Curie Point Depth and Heat Flow Map for Northern Red Sea Rift of Egypt and Its Surroundings, from Aeromagnetic Data

In this study, we aim to map the Curie point depth surface for the northern Red Sea rift region and its surroundings based on the spectral analysis of aeromagnetic data. Spectral analysis technique was used to estimate the boundaries (top and bottom) of the magnetized crust. The Curie point depth (CPD) estimates of the Red Sea rift from 112 overlapping blocks vary from 5 to 20 km. The depths obtained for the bottom of the magnetized crust are assumed to correspond to Curie point depths where the magnetic layer loses its magnetization. Intermediate to deep Curie point depth anomalies (10–16 km) were observed in southern and central Sinai and the Gulf of Suez (intermediate heat flow) due to the uplifted basement rocks. The shallowest CPD of 5 km (associated with very high heat flow, ~235 mW m^?2) is located at/around the axial trough of the Red Sea rift region especially at Brothers Island and Conrad Deep due to its association with both the concentration of rifting to the axial depression and the magmatic activity, whereas, beneath the Gulf of Aqaba, three Curie point depth anomalies belonging to three major basins vary from 10 km in the north to about 14 km in the south (with a mean heat flow of about 85 mW m^?2). Moreover, low CPD anomalies (high heat flow) were also observed beneath some localities in the northern part of the Gulf of Suez at Hammam Fraun, at Esna city along River Nile, at west Ras Gharib in the eastern desert and at Safaga along the western shore line of the Red Sea rift. These resulted from deviatoric tensional stresses developing in the lithosphere which contribute to its further extension and may be due to the opening of the Gulf of Suez and/or the Red Sea rift. Furthermore, low CPD (with high heat flow anomaly) was observed in the eastern border of the study area, beneath northern Arabia, due to the quasi-vertical low-velocity anomaly which extends into the lower mantle and may be related to volcanism in northern Arabia. Dense microearthquakes seem to occur in areas where the lateral gradients of the CPD are steep (e.g. entrance of the Gulf of Suez and Brothers Island in the Red Sea). These areas may correspond to the boundaries between high and low thermal regions of the crust. Thus, the variations in the microseismic activity may be closely related to thermal structures of the crust. Indeed, shallow cutoff depths of seismicity can also be found in some geothermal areas (e.g. western area of Safaga city along the Red Sea coastal region and at Esna city along the River Nile). These facts indicate that the changes in the thickness of the seismogenic layer strongly depend on temperature. Generally, the shallow Curie point depth indicates that some regions in our study area are promising regions for further geothermal exploration particularly in some localities along the River Nile, Red Sea and Gulf of Suez coastal regions.     

Source and dispersal of suspended sediment in the macro-tidal Gulf of Kachchh

The macro-tidal Gulf of Kachchh, covering nearly 7000 km(2), is located about 150 km south of the Indus River mouth. In spite of semi-arid climate and lack of major rivers flowing into it, the Gulf is highly turbid with suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) during October-November 2002 ranging between 0.5 and 674 mgl(-1). Highly turbid waters are observed towards the northern portion of the mouth of the Gulf, at the head of the Gulf and adjacent to the numerous shoals present within the Gulf. Perennial high SSC in the Gulf is due to resuspension of sediments by strong tidal currents, shallow bathymetry and presence of fine-grained sediments on the sea floor. Numerical model studies show that there is a dynamic barrier in the central Gulf, which prevents the exchange of water and suspended sediments between the outer and inner Gulf. This dynamic barrier associated with strong east-west tidal currents restricts the turbid waters mainly to the northern Gulf, resulting in relatively clear waters (SSC<10 mgl(-1)) in the southern and central portions of the Gulf. Laser particle size distribution, clay mineralogy and geochemistry of the suspended matter show that the main source of sediments to the Gulf of Kachchh is the Indus River. Although the Indus discharge has been severely curtailed in the recent decades due to construction of numerous dams and barrages, the Gulf of Kachchh continues to receive resuspended sediments from the numerous meso and macro-tidal creeks of the Indus delta. The sediments at the head of the Gulf appear to be a mixture of sediments derived from the Indus as well as the numerous seasonal rivers draining the Rann of Kachchh.     

Toxicity bioassay of bottom sediments in large water bodies in Northwestern Russia with the use of crustaceans

The results of bioassay and physicochemical analysis of bottom sediments from large water bodies in Northwestern Russia are presented. The water bodies under consideration include Lake Onega, Vygozerskoe Reservoir, and freshwater part of the Neva Estuary (the Eastern Gulf of Finland), which are locally subject to eutrophication and toxic pollution. The potential toxicity of bottom sediments, evaluated by the survival rate of two crustacean species (Gmelinoides fasciatus and Ceriodaphnia affinis) in 7-day tests, varied from high to low values, characterizing 5 quality classes: high, good, moderate, poor, and heavy, with appropriate degrees of toxic pollution from no to very high pollution. Bad zones were identified in the Kondopoga and Petrozavodsk bays of Onega Lake, the northern and southern parts of the Vygozerskoe Reservoir, and the southern part of the Neva Bay near the dam. Bottom sediments were found to have high quality in the open central areas of Lake Onega and the Vygozerskoe Reservoir and in the western part of Neva Estuary.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface sediments of the East China Sea and their relationship with carbonaceous materials

This study measured concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments in the East China Sea (ECS) to investigate possible sources and fate of PAHs. Total concentration of PAHs in the sediments of the ECS ranged from 22 to 244 ng g(-1), with the highest levels in the coastal area and outer shelf. The observed PAH results showed elevated levels in both inner and outer shelf areas, a finding that is different from predictions by an ocean circulation model, suggesting that terrestrial sources are important for PAH contaminations in the ECS, while sediment resuspension, tidal changes and lateral transport may be important in affecting the distribution of PAHs in the outer shelf. The distribution of PAHs in the surface sediments of the ECS is similar to the distribution of carbonaceous materials (e.g., particulate organic carbon and black carbon), suggesting that carbonaceous materials may strongly affect the distribution of PAHs.     

A Lagrangian-trajectory study of a gradually mixed estuary

When modelling is used for investigating estuarine systems, a choice generally has to be made between applying simple mass-balance considerations or using a process-resolving three-dimensional (3-D) numerical circulation model. In the present investigation of the Gulf of Finland, a gradually mixed estuary in the Baltic Sea, it is demonstrated how Lagrangian-trajectory analysis applied to the output from a 3-D model minimizes the disadvantages associated with both of the modelling techniques referred to above. This formalism made it possible to demonstrate that the main part of the Gulf is dominated by water originating from the Baltic proper, and that the most pronounced mixing with fresh water from the river Neva takes place over a limited zone in the inner part of the Gulf. Dynamical insights were furthermore obtained by using the Lagrangian formalism to construct overturning stream-functions for the two source waters.     

Consequences of coastal upwelling events on physical and chemical patterns in the central Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The consequences of a coastal upwelling event on physical and chemical patterns were studied in the central Gulf of Finland. Weekly mapping of hydrographical and -chemical fields were carried out across the Gulf between Tallinn and Helsinki in July–August 2006. In each survey, vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were recorded at 27 stations and water samples for chemical analyses (PO₄³⁻, NO₂⁻+NO₃⁻) were collected at 14 stations along the transect. An ordinary distribution of hydrophysical and -chemical variables with the seasonal thermocline at the depths of 10–20 m was observed in the beginning of the measurements in July. Nutrient concentrations in the upper mixed layer were below the detection limit and nutriclines were located just below or in the lower part of the thermocline. In the first half of August, a very intense upwelling event occurred near the southern coast of the Gulf when waters with low temperature and high salinity from the intermediate layer surfaced. High nutrient concentrations were measured in the upwelled water – 0.4 μmol l⁻¹ of phosphates and 0.6 μmol l⁻¹ of nitrates+nitrites. We estimated the amount of nutrients transported into the surface layer as 238–290 tons of phosphorus (P)-PO₄³⁻ and 175–255 tons of N-NO_x for a 12 m thick, 20 km wide and 100 km long coastal stretch. Taking into account a characteristic along-shore extension of the upwelling of 200 km, the phosphate-phosphorus amount is approximately equal to the average total monthly riverine load of phosphorus to the Gulf of Finland. It is shown that TS-characteristics of water masses and vertical distribution of nutrients along the study transect experienced drastic changes caused by the upwelling event in the entire studied water column. TS-analysis of profiles obtained before and during the upwelling event suggests that while welled up, the cold intermediate layer water was mixed with the water from the upper mixed layer with a share of 85% and 15%. We suggest that the coastal upwelling events contribute remarkably to the vertical mixing of waters in the Gulf of Finland. Intrusions of nutrient-rich waters along the inclined isopycnal surfaces in the vicinity of upwelling front were revealed. The upwelling event widened the separation of phosphocline and nitracline which in turn prevented surfacing of nitrate+nitrite-nitrogen during the next upwelling event observed a week after the upwelling relaxation. A suggestion is made that such widening of nutricline separation caused by similar upwelling events in early summer could create favourable conditions for late summer cyanobacterial blooms.     

Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models

A statistical methodology is proposed for assessing the risk of eutrophication in marine coastal embayments. The procedure followed was the development of regression models relating the levels of chlorophyll a (Chl) with the concentration of the limiting nutrient--usually nitrogen--and the renewal rate of the systems. The method was applied in the Gulf of Gera, Island of Lesvos, Aegean Sea and a surrogate for renewal rate was created using the Canberra metric as a measure of the resemblance between the Gulf and the oligotrophic waters of the open sea in terms of their physical, chemical and biological properties. The Chl-total dissolved nitrogen-renewal rate regression model was the most significant, accounting for 60% of the variation observed in Chl. Predicted distributions of Chl for various combinations of the independent variables, based on Bayesian analysis of the models, enabled comparison of the outcomes of specific scenarios of interest as well as further analysis of the system dynamics. The present statistical approach can be used as a methodological tool for testing the resilience of coastal ecosystems under alternative managerial schemes and levels of exogenous nutrient loading.     

芬兰海岸带水域蓝藻水华遥感监测

MODIS-Terra和MERIS数据被用于芬兰湾蓝藻水华的监测,并对两者的性能进行了比较.研究结果表明:MODIS-Terra 波段设置主要针对一类大洋水体,缺乏预警藻蓝素的有效波段;MERIS传感器设置了620nm和665nm波段,基本对应藻蓝素的吸收峰(630nm)和反射峰(650nm),具有蓝藻水华探测的潜力,但在藻华未成型之前,海岸带水体不同优势藻类具有相似的叶绿紊特征,较难辨别蓝藻水华.总的来说,MODlS和MERIS数据比较困难实现蓝藻水华初期预警,但可以有效监测已成型的蓝藻水华.这一方法可以用于中国太湖或者海岸带水体藻华探测和监测研究.     

Dissolved oxygen--a target indicator in determining use of the Gulf of Kachchh waters

Spatial and temporal variations of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) in the Gulf of Kachchh (GoK), India are assessed based on data collected since 1976. DO concentrations in the interior GoK vary within a narrow range (6.05-6.86 mg l(-1)), whereas near-shore waters show wider variations (3.5-7.8 mg l(-1)). The DO concentration levels in the Gulf waters are close to saturation, varying from 75.4% to 108.6%, which is much higher than the 60% saturation level set for the SW-1 waters. BOD-DO simulation shows that when effluents containing a BOD concentration of 50.0 mg l(-1) are introduced at three select locations, DO reduces from 5.1 mg l(-1) to 3.1, 5.0 and 3.8 mg l(-1), respectively, indicating a strong sensitivity to effluent load. Based on the DO analysis, BOD assimilation capacity of coastal waters around the Marine National Park (MNP) and Marine Sanctuary (MS) in the Gulf is determined. DO available for utilization for various categories of water use is illustrated, keeping in mind the ecology of MNP and MS areas. The significance of DO as a target indicator to zone the Gulf for different water use, is highlighted in this study.     

Circulation and thermal structure in Lake Huron and Georgian Bay: Application of a nested-grid hydrodynamic model

A nested-grid hydrodynamic modelling system is used to study circulation and temperature distributions in Lake Huron (LH) and adjacent areas. This nested system is based on the three-dimensional, primitive-equation z-level ocean model. The nested system consists of two sub-components: a coarse-resolution outer model covering LH and Georgian Bay (GB) with a horizontal resolution of roughly 2.5 km, and the fine-resolution inner model covering eastern LH and northwestern GB with a horizontal resolution of roughly 900 m. Both the outer and inner models have 30 z-levels in the vertical. To assess the model performance, we simulate the three-dimensional circulation and temperature distributions of LH and GB in 1974–1975 and compare the model results with observations made in the lake. We demonstrate that outer model of the nested system simulates reasonably well the large-scale circulation and seasonal evolution of thermal stratifications in LH and GB, and the inner model produces reasonably well the three-dimensional flow and thermal structure over the coastal boundary layer close to the eastern shore of the lake.     

Assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a 3D-coupled physical–biogeochemical model applied to a freshwater-influenced coastal zone

In order to predict eutrophication events in coastal areas we tested an assimilation scheme based on sequential data assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a coupled 3D physical–biogeochemical model. The area investigated is a semi-enclosed estuarine system (Gulf of Fos–North-western Mediterranean Sea) closely linked to the Rhone River delta. This system is subjected to episodic eutrophication caused by certain hydrodynamic conditions and intermittent nutrient inputs. The 3D hydrodynamic model Symphonie was coupled to the biogeochemical modelling platform Eco3M. Surface chlorophyll concentrations were derived from SeaWiFS data using the OC5 algorithm and were sequentially assimilated using a singular evolutive extended Kalman filter. Assimilation efficiency was evaluated through an independent in situ data set collected during a field survey that took place in May 2001 (ModelFos cruise). An original approach was used in constructing the state vector and the observation vector. By assimilating pseudo-salinity extracted from the model biogeochemical dynamics in both open sea and plume region were respected. We proved that substantial improvements were made in short-term forecasts by integrating such satellite-estimated chlorophyll maps. We showed that missing freshwater inputs could be corrected to a certain extent by the assimilation process. Simulated concentrations of surface chlorophyll and other basic components of the pelagic ecosystem such as nitrates were improved by assimilating surface chlorophyll maps. Finally we showed the coherent spatial behaviour of the filter over the whole modelled domain.     

Macrobenthic community structure in the northern Saudi waters of the Gulf, 14 years after the 1991 oil spill

The 1991 Gulf oil spill heavily impacted the coastal areas of the Saudi waters of the Arabian Gulf and recent studies have indicated that even 15 years after the incident, macrobenthos had not completely recovered in the sheltered bays in the affected region such as, Manifa Bay. This study investigates the community conditions of macrobenthos in the open waters in one of the impacted areas, Al-Khafji waters, about 14 years after the spill. Diversity measures and community structure analyses indicate a healthy status of polychaete communities. The BOPA index reveals that oil sensitive amphipods were recolonized in the study area. This confirms that the benthic communities of the oil spill impacted area had taken only <14 years to recover in the open waters of the impacted areas. The study also reveals the existence of three distinct polychaete communities along the depth and sediment gradients.