On Chinese earthquake history — An attempt to model an incomplete data set by point process analysis

Since the 1950s, the Academia Sinica in Peking, People's Republic of China, has carried out extensive research on the Chinese earthquake history. With a historical record dating back some 3000 years, a wealth of information on Chinese earthquakes exists. Despite this monumental undertaking by the Academia Sinica, much work is still necessary to correct the existing earthquake data for historical changes in population, customs, modes of communication, and dynasties. In this paper we report on the status of our investigation of Chinese earthquake history and present some preliminary results. By applying point process analysis of earthquakes in Central China, we found suggestions of (1) lower earthquake activity at intervals of about 175 years and 375 years, and (2) higher earthquake activity at an interval of about 300 years.     

基于时间相依地震活动性模型的地震时间序列模拟

模拟地震时间序列在地震危险性分析和地震灾害预测等领域中具有重要作用,地震活动性模型是模拟地震序列的重要理论基础.本文以时间相依地震活动性模型为理论模型,系统梳理了现有时间相依地震活动性模型理论与方法,研究了断层（震源）上最新地震发生时间已知、未知以及地震历史开放间隔已知三种情况下地震发生概率的计算方法,分析了地震复发间隔的变异系数对时间相依地震发生概率的影响.研究了基于布朗模型的特征地震准周期发生的物理原理,建立了时间相依地震时间序列的模拟方法.研究结果表明,在地震离逝时间较长的情况下,基于时间相依地震活动性模型计算的地震发生概率要显著大于泊松模型;在地震历史开放时间已知情况下,计算的地震发生概率要高于地震离逝时间未知的情况.地震复发间隔的变异系数越小,模拟的地震时间序列越呈现周期性.本文研究结果可提高长期地震概率预测水平,模拟的具有时间相依特征的地震时间序列可用于地震预测、概率地震危险性分析以及地震灾害预测等领域.

     

Influence of earthquake ground motion incoherency on multi-support structures

A linear response history analysis method is used to determine the influence of three factors: geometric incoherency, wave-passage, and local site characteristics on the response of multi-support structures subjected to differential ground motions. A one-span frame and a reduced model of a 24-span bridge, located in Las Vegas, Nevada are studied, in which the influence of each of the three factors and their combinations are analyzed. It is revealed that the incoherency of earthquake ground motion can have a dramatic influence on structural response by modifying the dynamics response to uniform excitation and inducing pseudo-static response, which does not exist in structures subjected to uniform excitation. The total response when all three sources of ground motion incoherency are included is generally larger than that of uniform excitation.     

In-plane response of two-story structures to near-fault ground motion

Linear and non-linear responses of a two-story structural model excited by near-source fault-normal pulse and fault-parallel displacement are investigated. For the considered linear system, the multi-component differential-motion effects amplify the first-story drifts 3.0–4.0 times relative to the excitation by synchronous horizontal ground motion only. The contribution of horizontal differential ground motion to the total drift is about two thirds, and the contribution of vertical and rocking differential ground motions is about one third. For the considered nonlinear system, the effects of vertical and rocking differential ground motions become more significant for the second-story drifts. The horizontal differential ground motion amplifies the first-story drifts, but the simultaneous action of horizontal, vertical, and rocking differential ground motions can amplify the first- and second-story drifts by more than 2.0 times relative to the drifts computed for uniform horizontal ground motion only.     

Modal-based ground motion selection procedure for nonlinear response time history analysis of dual wall-frame structures

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The dual wall-frame structure consists of a structural wall system and a rigid frame system, and there is a strong interaction between the frame and wall...     

时程分析中设计地震动调整的小波分析方法

本文应用小波分析核心内容之一的多分辨率分析和Mallat算法，提出一种全新的设计地震动调整方法。调整后的地震动既能满足频谱组成的要求，又能反映频谱组成随时间的变化。     

Skyline‐based ground motion selection method for nonlinear time history analysis of building structures

This paper develops a novel ground motion selection procedure for nonlinear time history analysis of critical structures. The skyline query originated from computer science is first introduced, including its concept and related algorithms. Then, the ground motion selection procedure based on skyline query is developed. Meanwhile, a new five‐dimensional vector‐valued intensity measure is defined as a critical ingredient of the selection procedure to measure the damage potential of ground motions. Finally, the process of the selection procedure is illustrated through examples of three shear models, and its efficiency is also validated. Through the examples of three shear models, the ground motion selection procedure based on skyline query proposed in this paper is proven to be capable of selecting a limited set of ground motions with high damage potentials for the nonlinear time history analysis purpose. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation of earthquake ground motionwith depth

Introduction The 21st century is the time for the exploitation and utilization of underground spaces. It is astrategic way to defeat the severe challenge that human are now confronting with, such as the lackof land, contamination of environment, traffic jam, waste of sources, and so on. The exploitationand utilization of underground space has become a global tendency, and a significant sign inevaluating the speed of modernization of cities. Facing the challenge, it is significantly necess…     

Site assessment and evaluation of spatial earthquake ground motion of Kyeongju

The earthquake hazard has been evaluated for 10 km×10 km area around Kyeongju. The ground motion potentials were determined based on equivalent linear analysis by using the data obtained from in situ and laboratory tests. In situ tests include 16 boring investigations, 4 crosshole, 12 downhole, 26 spectral analysis of surface waves tests, and in the laboratory, resonant column tests were performed. The peak ground accelerations range between 0.141g and 0.299g on collapse level earthquake and between 0.050g and 0.120g on operation level earthquake, respectively, showing the high potential of amplification in the deep alluvial layer in Kyeongju area. Distribution maps of site amplification for the peak acceleration, amplification factors (F_a and F_v) and dominant site period of Kyeongju are constructed using geographic information system tools. The amplification factor based on the Korean seismic design guide underestimated the motion in short range and overestimated the motion in mid-period range in Kyeongju. The importance of site-specific analysis and the need for the improved site characterization method are introduced.     

The role of strong motion rotations in the response of structures near earthquake faults

Early studies of earthquake strong motion assumed linear materials and small deformations. It was observed that under favorable conditions (long waves), the accompanying rotational motions are usually small, and so their effects could be neglected. In 1932, when Biot opted for the vibrational method of solution of the dynamic response problems [Trifunac MD. 75th anniversary of the response spectrum method—a historical review. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng 2008 [in press].] in his formulation of the response spectrum concept, his choice of the discrete mathematical models of buildings further led to the conditions that did not explicitly require consideration of the rotations [Trifunac MD. Buildings as sources of rotational waves, Chapter I.5. In: Teisseyre R, Nagahama H, Majewski E, editors. Physics of asymmetric continua: extreme and fracture processes. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer; 2008 [in press].]. The engineering profession was not prepared in the 1930s and 1940s for Biot's new theory and first had to learn the basic dynamics of structures before it could question the wisdom and consequences of the vibrational versus the wave-propagation approaches to the solution. Also, there were too many other concerns, often caused by the modeling simplifications, that pushed the studies of the rotational motion further down to the low levels of priority. Even today, 40 years after the arrival of digital computers and the emergence of powerful numerical computational capabilities, which uncovered unexpectedly large families of chaotic solutions accompanying large deformations, as well as nonlinear response [Trifunac MD. Nonlinear problems in earthquake engineering. In: Springer's encyclopedia of complexity and system science, 2008 [in press] [94].], most researchers continue to ignore the role of rotations. Had Biot chosen the wave-propagation approach for the solution of the earthquake engineering problems in 1932, the “progress” might have been faster. The wave representation can be differentiated with respect to a space coordinate, giving the rotations at a point directly. In contrast, the lumped-mass models in the vibrational approach do not make this possible, and the closest one can come to considering rotations is in terms of average, per-floor rotation, or drift.     

A numerical approach for modeling near-fault ground motion and its application in the 1994 Northridge earthquake

An approach for simulating near-fault ground motion was presented by combining the finite fault model with a numerical algorithm, named investigated lump method presented in this paper for wave propagation. The investigated lumps are constructed from the auxiliary quadrilateral grids. The dynamic equilibrium equations of a typical investigated lump have been derived and obtained by integrating the stresses along the contour of the investigated lump. The stresses are calculated using the constitutive relations and the interpolation techniques. The investigated lump method is then implemented using the equilibrium equations of investigated lumps and the calculations of stresses alternately in time domain. The stability criterion of the algorithm has been given. Comparisons with the discrete wave-number method solutions for predicting the ground motions at the Pacoima Dam during the San Fernando earthquake show the validity of the method presented in this paper for simulating near-field ground motions. A finite fault source model has been implemented in the algorithm here. The source parameters given by Wald et al. (1996) [18] are applied to synthesize the ground motions at three stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The simulating results qualitatively match to the corresponding ground motion records. The studies demonstrated that the approach presented in this paper is an effective tool for the numerical simulation of near-fault ground motion.     

不同地震动衰减关系模型在河北地区应用

河北省目前主要采用的是霍俊荣给出的适用于中国华北地区的地震动反应谱的衰减,该衰减关系分为Ⅱ型衰减关系模型和Ⅲ型衰减关系模型。使用Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型模型以及烈度衰减关系,对石家庄、邯郸、邢台、保定、张家口、承德、唐山、秦皇岛、廊坊、沧州10个地级市以及沙城、三河、宁晋、磁县等曾经历史上发生过大地震的地方,进行50年超越概率10%的峰值加速度和烈度值的计算,得出不同衰减关系模型适合使用于不同地区。     

不同类别场地地震动参数的计算分析

基于188个工程场地计算剖面及场地地震反应分析的等线性化波动分析方法，通过对场地地震反应的计算及计算结果的分析，研究了4类场地条件对场地地震动影响的特点及规律，给出了每一类场地地震动参数变化的经验关系。     

断层地震孕育和发生的不稳定性模型

在以前的工作中,考虑直立走滑型断层地震,假设断层面微元破裂强度遵循Weibull概率分布,由细观力学方法推导出断层面的宏观本构关系是一个非线性函数,表现为弹性-软化塑性特征,在此基础上用稳定性理论研究了地震稳定性问题.而实际断层大多是倾斜的,为此,本文首先建立了由围岩和倾斜断层构成的平面地震力学模型,采用宏观的断层载荷-变形的全过程曲线,详细讨论了倾斜断层地震的不稳定性问题.结果表明,远场一旦施加位移,断层也同时错动,这可能与实际情况不符合.为了更好的模拟断层的初始能量累计过程,进一步对断层本构模型进行改进.考虑断层面破裂强度,采用Coulomb破裂准则,则断层表现为刚塑性本构关系,只有当断层面剪应力达到一个临界值时,断层才开始错动.研究表明,对于倾斜断层地震,与直立走滑型断层地震一样,系统刚度比β（围岩切线刚度与断层刚度最大值之比）是决定地震失稳的重要参数,只有当ββ≥1时,仅仅是断层无震滑动,不会发生地震.在远场应施以位移形式边界条件,以致地震失稳发生在平衡路径的位移转向点并伴有应力突跳.     

基于物理的随机地震动模型研究

基于物理联系研究地震动随机性,建立了随机地震动与基底输入傅氏谱、场地固有圆频率和场地等价阻尼比之间的物理关系,从随机傅氏谱函数角度描述了地震动随机过程的随机性本质。结合Ⅳ类工程场地的实测地震动记录资料,由数值方法识别了给出基本随机变量的概率分布参数。与实测记录对比表明,本文建立的随机地震动模型具有明确的物理概念,可充分反映地震动的变异性特征。     

1975年海城MS7.3地震强地面运动模拟

地震强地面运动预测对工程的抗震设计,地震危害性分析以及减轻特定地区可能发生的大地震所造成的灾害具有重要的作用.本文根据辽宁省海城地区的地质资料和发生于1975年2月4日辽宁省海城市的M_S7.3地震资料,分别构造了海城地区的地下速度结构和海城地震的震源模型,并且使用可以准确描述地形起伏的曲线网格有限差分方法计算了海城地震的波场传播过程.通过对计算得到的波场快照、合成理论地震图以及地震烈度的分析表明：（1）震源模型、地下的速度结构和地形起伏对海城地震的波场传播模拟具有重要的影响,它们所产生的近断层效应、方向性效应和盆地效应明显;（2）通过计算得到的海城地震的理论烈度分布与通过震后调查得到的烈度分布大体符合,验证了本文所构造的震源模型和速度结构的合理性.

     

The effect of energy concentration of earthquake ground motions on the nonlinear response of RC structures

Usually different nonlinear time responses due to earthquake ground motion are distinguished by non-localized spectra, such as the response or power spectra. However, these spectra are often not able to explain the large discrepancy among structural responses caused by different earthquake records. The local spectrum, obtained by the wavelet transform, shows the energy distribution in the time-frequency domain, and helps to understand the very different structural responses. By changing the energy distribution in time of several earthquake records, the effect of energy concentration on the structural nonlinear response is demonstrated. This paper proposes the use of the characteristic peak ground acceleration, which is the peak of the signal constructed by only a few special wavelet components of an earthquake record, to quantify the difference between earthquake records, since this measure indicates the magnitude of the energy concentrated around the fundamental period of a structure.     

Spectral analysis of earthquake migration in South America

Earthquake migration along linear seismic belts is investigated by analyzing spacetime diagrams using spectral analysis. In order to sample the earthquakes in the space-time domain, they must first be convolved with a (sinx sint)/xt surface to obtain an unbiased and alias free twodimensional Fourier spectrum. Further enhancements are provided by selectively stacking patterns (a pattern is defined as the distribution of earthquakes in space and time before a particular earthquake), thereby reinforcing the similarities within the various patterns. With these techniques, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the migration rates (from theirspatial frequencies) and recurrence intervals (from theirtemporal frequencies) of large earthquakes in South America.Preliminary examination of the spectra for South America indicates that a low frequency peak occurs at approximately 2500 km and 27 years for earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.7. The results suggest a migration rate of approximately 95 km/yr from south to north and a recurrence interval of 27 years.     

基于断层相互作用理论的强震成组孕育发生初步研究

应用应力触发理论原理,基于断层相互作用理论,研究了川滇地区6级以上地震的库仑破裂应力变化。初步结果表明,后续强震大多发生在前一地震所触发的应力增长区,这证明了强震之间是相互作用、相互影响的。即强震是成组孕育、成组发生的,这对强震的地点预测有一定实际意义。     

对若干地震动包线函数的比较分析

对已经提出的四种经常使用的包线函数模型进行了评价,认为对于评价单峰点包线函数,除了要求形式简单以外,其优劣可以用函数对峰点位置和高峰隆起程度的控制能力作为标准。借助结构动力试验中阻尼比的确定方法,提出用平稳度指数来评价单峰点包线函数平缓程度。据此对四种包线函数的平稳度进行了分析,还对某些包线函数提出了一些改进。通过分析指出如果把“金井清谱”和“Penzien谱”等模型,看作是时间域中包线,这两个模型的调节能力都很强,而且比较方便,其中“Penzien谱”模型可以用来表示具有两个峰点的包线。文中的比较分析结果可以用于地震动包线函数选择和模拟。