分布式能源系统与电网的区域合作仿真

电网对分布式能源系统的态度很大程度上是出于利益的考虑,如果能够实现双赢,则二者共同合作满足区域用电将是缓解能源危机和供电压力的有效途径.应用Agent技术,将分布式能源系统和电网看作区域内的两类Agent,以实现各自预期利润为目标建立区域合作仿真模型,通过"调整策略-实现利润"的迭代过程获取二者双赢的边界条件及合作轨迹.最后以上海浦东国际机场能源中心热电联产系统为研究对象,验证该方法的有效性.     

基于鲁棒自适应策略的燃气轮机系统控制器设计

太阳能、风能和潮汐能等可再生能源的发电系统,具有间歇性发电的特性.因此,具有快速响应、发电效率高的燃气轮机发电系统,能够在可再生能源发电间歇出现时充当替代系统,不仅稳固电网的负荷能力,还有助于推动可再生能源的发展.由于燃气轮机是一个模型包含未知的复杂非线性系统,目前针对转速环节主要采取传统PID控制技术.然而,实际运行中系统工况发生变化时,控制器参数不能随着这些变化做出相应的调整,使得控制效果欠佳,执行器故障的出现也可能导致系统无法正常工作.因而,本文针对单轴燃气轮机的孤岛发电模式,结合燃气轮机系统特性,基于反步法的设计思路,引入不依赖于系统模型的鲁棒自适应控制策略,并加入容错控制和Nussbaum函数构造转速控制器.在控制器设计过程中融合动态面方法,解决高阶系统中反步法引起的计算爆炸问题.最后,通过仿真,验证了控制器的可靠性.     

桂林地区太阳能开发利用及前景探讨

本文简要阐明节能和开发利用新能源的必要性。提出桂林地区太阳能是值得开发利用的气象能源之一。从桂林地区具有的太阳能资源,以及使用太阳能热水器的效益,探讨开发利用太阳能的前景。     

实际环境下光储离网型发电系统优化设计研究

偏远和无电地区远离电网,采用含光储离网型发电系统是解决当地电力缺失的重要手段。为充分利用可再生能源及解决偏远和无电区的经济性供电问题,提出了以系统负载满足率、全寿命成本为主要约束因子,从用户负荷特性、太阳能资源分析、光伏组件的实际环境发电特性、储能特性、电能匹配特性等角度研究光储离网型发电系统的优化设计方法。通过对非洲某地区的供电需求分析,光储离网型发电系统较经济地满足了当地的基本供电问题。     

紫云气象站太阳能资源评估

太阳能资源作为可再生清洁能源,在我国积极应对气候变化,落实国家节能减排要求,推进新能源使用中发挥了重要作用,光伏发电作为新能源在我国得到不断开发利用。该文利用紫云气象站1961—2014年的日照观测资料及2011—2014年太阳辐射观测资料。通过对日照资料及辐射资料变化情况的分析,以及采用气候学方法估算1981年以来的太阳辐射值,对紫云气象站的太阳能资源进行评估。     

一个中尺度海-气耦合模式的研制

将L inux系统的管道通信技术运用到大气-海洋耦合模式的研究,实现了中尺度大气模式与海洋模式的双向耦合。使用这个模式研究中尺度海-气相互作用,有较多的优点,不但可以提高模式的稳定性和运行效率,且可移植性强,利于模式的独立升级和改进。     

光伏发电与5kW屋顶并网系统在气象站应用的探讨

绿色发展是"十三五"乃至更长时期我国战略性的发展理念。充分利用太阳能可再生能源和气象站业务用房闲置屋顶,逐步试验在气象站安装5 k W分布式屋顶并网太阳能光伏发电系统,为日常基本气象业务运行提供电能,既可降低运行成本,又可实现向绿色气象台站建设的升级,对于节能环保、推行绿色发展、提高气象发展内涵具有重要意义。     

浅谈自动气象站蓄电池维护方法

<正>1无人自动站蓄电池基本情况免维护蓄电池是自动气象站基本组成部分,其质量和性能的好坏直接影响自动气象站整体运行情况。目前,自动站电源系统基本采用阀控式密封铅酸蓄电池做为太阳能或市电不正常情况下的应急和备用电源。该供电模式充分保证了自动站设备系统的稳定性和可靠性,提升了自动气象站的抗干扰能力。2蓄电池工作原理及使用现状工作原理:阀控式密封铅酸蓄电池通过采用负极吸收原理来实现氧复合循环。蓄电池能够吸收充电时正极产生的氧气,从而减少电解液的多余损耗,     

地形积层混合云模式数值试验研究

本文采用数值试验对比分析的方法,利用一维半地形积层混合云模式,分别进行引入与不引入极端水汽源的模拟试验.研究表明,一旦引入极端水汽源,地形积层混合云系统即成为一个极为有效的造雨系统.极端水汽源的引入提供了更加饱和的环境,维持更久的辐合场,还增大了冰相粒子对云水的碰并.这些初步认为是暴雨产生的主要物理原因.     

孤岛分布式能源系统的反步控制策略研究

针对含分布式能源（DER）的微电网在孤岛运行模式下自身调节能力有限的问题,基于反步控制方法设计了一种DER系统孤岛运行电压控制策略,解决了DER系统在孤岛运行模式下的电压控制问题.首先,给出了孤岛运行模式下DER系统模型及输出电压数学模型;其次,利用反步控制方法设计了控制器,同时利用李雅普诺夫稳定性理论进行了稳定性分析;最后,利用此控制器在平衡负载及不平衡负载的情况下对输出电压进行控制,并通过仿真验证了反步控制器的有效性.     

Decarbonization and regulation of Germany's electricity system after Fukushima

Germany's current efforts to decarbonize its electricity system are analysed. As nuclear power and fossil power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage were ruled out in 2011, renewable electricity generation (RES) together with electricity savings are the primary focus for achieving decarbonization. Germany aims to have RES account for at least 80% of its electricity by 2050. Achieving renewable generation needs strong political support and regulatory provisions for its market integration. Four main technical and regulatory challenges are the maintenance of a steady and efficient expansion of RES, the provision of balancing capacities, the realization of the targeted electricity savings, and the smart adaptation of the transport and distribution grid. An overview of the existing and planned regulatory provisions for decarbonization are described, and some gaps identified, particularly with regard to the overall management of the process, the inclusion of electricity savings and the interference of Germany's decarbonization strategies with neighbouring countries. Policies that both accelerate grid expansion and direct RES expansion should immediately be put in place and can be supported by a targeted mobilization of balancing capacities. Electricity savings are a significant and cost-efficient strategy for low-carbon electricity.

Policy relevance

Germany is actively converting its national electricity system towards a fully renewable one. As renewable electricity has reached about a quarter of total consumption, a number of technical and regulatory challenges arise. Current discussions and plans are described for the four main challenges: maintaining and optimizing high investment rates into RES generation technologies, providing balancing capacities, reducing demand, and adapting the grid to the changing needs. Policy recommendations for these four tasks highlight the need to intensify electricity demand reduction and also consider the potential interactions between the German electricity system and its neighbouring countries.     

基于M16C单片机的温度测量计

研制了一种模块化设计的瑞萨系列单片机实验系统.系统采用集成度高的温度传感器,运用模块化设计完成了基于16位单片机(M3062LFGPGP)的数字式温度计设计,同时在处理温度数据时运用一种新算法,温度精度通过主控模块软件和温度硬件校正处理得到提高.根据传统设计原理,结合瑞萨单片机M3062LFGPGP特点,系统将A/D转换模块和万年历模块集中于主控模块,实现了用软件编程替代A/D模块、万年历硬件模块的新型设计.设计需要模块仅为主控模块、温度模块和显示模块,能够显示当前环境温度以及年、月、日、星期、时、分、秒.此设计可以大大降低系统功耗,减少硬件设计错误,提高系统的稳定性,计时准确,显示清晰,具有较高的应用价值.     

任意正交曲线坐标系下的海洋模式动力框架的发展与评估

本文发展了一个可以适用于任意水平正交曲线坐标系的海洋模式动力框架,并将其应用于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统海洋模式LICOM2.0（LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model,version2.0）。在经纬网格坐标系下,新的动力框架与LICOM2.0原有的动力框架模拟结果完全一致。基于新的动力框架,海洋模式可采用能够准确描述北冰洋地形的三极网格,克服了LICOM2.0经纬网格版本必须将北极点处理为孤岛的缺陷,从而显著改进了模式对于北冰洋环流和北大西洋经圈翻转流函数（AMOC）的模拟能力。此外,引进三极网格还可以避免模式网格距随纬度增加而急剧减小带来的计算不稳定,在LICOM2.0的三极网格版本中,模式不需要采用任何空间滤波方案仍然能够保证计算的稳定性,从而与LICOM2.0的经纬网格版本相比,极大地提高了模式的并行效率,这一点在当水平分辨率提高到0.1度时表现得尤为明显,海洋模式的并行加速比可以从经纬网格版本的5.8左右提高到三极网格版本的15.0左右。     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.

Key policy insights

• Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.

• Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.

• Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

     

Analysing the interaction between emission trading and renewable electricity support in TIMES

As the number of instruments applied in the area of energy and climate policy is rising, the issue of policy interaction needs to be explored further. This article analyses the interdependencies between the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the German feed-in tariffs (FITs) for renewable electricity in a quantitative manner using a bottom-up energy system model. Flexible modelling approaches are presented for both instruments, with which all impacts on the energy system can be evaluated endogenously. It is shown that national climate policy measures can have an effect on the supranational emissions trading system by increasing emission reduction in the German electricity sector by up to 79 MtCO₂ in 2030. As a result, emission certificate prices decline by between 1.9 €/tCO₂ and 6.1 €/tCO₂ and the burden sharing between participating countries changes, but no additional emission reduction is achieved at the European level. This also implies, however, that the cost efficiency of such a cap-and-trade system is distorted, with additional costs of the FIT system of up to €320 billion compared with lower costs for ETS emission certificates of between €44 billion and €57 billion (cumulated over the period 2013–2020).

Policy relevance

In order to fulfil ambitious emission reduction targets a large variety of climate policy instruments are being implemented in Europe. While some, like the EU ETS, directly address CO₂ emissions, others aim to promote specific low-carbon technologies. The quantitative analysis of the interactions between the EU ETS and the German FIT scheme for renewable sources in electricity generation presented in this article helps to understand the importance of such interaction effects. Even though justifications can be found for the implementation of both types of instrument, the impact of the widespread use of support mechanisms for renewable electricity in Europe needs to be taken into account when fixing the reduction targets for the EU ETS in order to ensure a credible long-term investment signal.     

利用慢特征分析法提取二维非平稳系统中的外强迫特征

慢特征分析法（Slow Feature Analysis,SFA）是一个从快变的信号中提取慢变特征的有效方法,它的提出丰富了人们对非平稳系统外强迫特征的重建手段。本文以Henon映射为基础,构造二维非平稳系统模型,尝试SFA方法在二维复杂非平稳系统中重建外强迫特征的能力。试验表明,SFA方法能够较好地从单时变参数Henon映射中提取出外强迫信号;通过结合小波变换技术,可以还原双时变参数Henon映射中的外强迫信号。另外,本文利用SFA方法重建了北京市气温的外强迫信号,分析其外强迫信号的尺度特征及其可能的物理机制。这些工作将为气候系统驱动力的研究提供新的思路。     

Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa

Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO₂e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.

Policy relevance

Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments.     

气候变化约束下中国电力系统低碳转型路径及策略

为理清应对气候变化约束下推动电力系统转型中面临的挑战和潜力,形成有效精准抓手,研究从气候变化约束对电力需求的影响出发,系统梳理温升目标下电力系统转型路径相关研究,并通过综述在低碳转型过程中与电力系统密切相关的煤电退出问题、可再生能源并网问题以及电网优化问题提出相应政策建议。研究发现,温升约束下煤电规模需快速下降,可再生能源发电大规模并网及远距离输送将成为最显著的特征,气电将承担比现在更重大的责任,核电需抛开争议加速发展。加快完善市场化机制、严控煤电规模、着力提升能效、统筹加强灵活性资源管理以及优化跨区负荷管理应成为监管部门重点推进的方向。     

Carbon reduction in the real world: how the UK will surpass its Kyoto obligations

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity—carbon emissions per unit of GDP—has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.

Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.

The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK's Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience.