Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico: GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

An atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM, has been used to investigate the possible effects that reduced Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SST) could have on regional and hemispheric climates. ¹⁸O records and terrestrial evidence indicate at least two major glacial meltwater discharges into the Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the last glacial maximum. It is probable that these discharges reduced Gulf of Mexico SST. We have conducted three numerical experiments, with imposed gulf-wide SST coolings of 3°C, 6°C, and 12°C, and find in all three experiments significant reductions in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, along with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures are higher over the North Atlantic, indicating a reduction of the climatological Icelandic low. The region is generally cooler and drier, with a reduction in precipitation that agrees well with evidence from Greenland ice cores. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere, but vary between the three experiments. In particular, warmer, wetter conditions are found over Europe for both the 6°C and 12°C SST reductions, but cooler conditions are found for the 3°C reduction. This indicates a dependence, in both the sign and magnitude of the model response, on the magnitude of the imposed SST anomaly. The results suggest that the present-day North Atlantic storm track is dependent on warm Gulf of Mexico SST for much of its intensity. They also suggest that meltwater-induced coolings may help account, in part, for some of the climatic oscillations that occurred during the last glacial/interglacial transition.     

镇江市新一代暴雨强度公式研制及雨型设计

用镇江市1980—2013年连续34 a的降水观测资料,通过数据审核处理建立暴雨统计样本。对镇江市近34 a的暴雨特征进行统计分析,发现其存在较为显著的阶段性变化特征,具备开展新一代暴雨强度公式研制的必要。基于此,采用年最大值法展开修订,基于皮尔逊III型分布确定概率曲线并进行参数推求,研制了镇江市新一代暴雨强度公式。在此基础上,开展镇江市短历时暴雨雨型设计研究。统计发现:短历时暴雨以单峰型分布为主,其雨峰位置大部分出现在整个暴雨过程的前半段。进而采用芝加哥法雨型进行雨型设计,确定雨峰位置系数,得到镇江市短历时暴雨的雨型设计过程,短历时暴雨的瞬时雨强最高达5.9 mm/min,过程累计降水最高达105 mm。     

Diagnostic metrics for evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles

Two sets of diagnostic metrics are proposed for evaluation of global models?? simulation of annual and diurnal cycles of precipitation. The metrics for the annual variation include the annual mean, the solstice and equinoctial asymmetric modes of the annual cycle (AC), and the global monsoon precipitation domain and intensity. The metrics for the diurnal variation include the diurnal range, the land?Csea contrast and transition modes of the diurnal cycle (DC), and the diurnal peak propagation in coastal regions. The proposed modes for the AC and DC represent faithfully the first two leading empirical orthogonal functions and explain, respectively, 82% of the total annual variance and 87% of the total diurnal variance over the globe between 45°S and 45°N. The simulated AC and DC by the 20-km-mesh MRI/JMA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are in a wide-ranging agreement with observations; the model considerably outperforms any individual AMIP II GCMs and has comparable performance to 12-AMIP II model ensemble simulation measured by Pearson??s pattern correlation coefficient. Comparison of four versions of the MRI/JMA AGCM with increasing resolution (180, 120, 60, and 20?km) reveals that the 20-km version reproduces the most realistic annual and diurnal cycles. However, the improved performance is not a linear function of the resolution. Marked improvement of the simulated DC (AC) occurs at the resolution of 60?km (20?km). The results suggest that better represented parameterizations that are adequately tuned to increased resolutions may improve models?? simulation on the forced responses. The common deficiency in representing the monsoon domains suggests the models having difficulty in replicating annual march of the Subtropical Highs that is largely driven by prominent east-west land?Cocean thermal contrast. Note that the 20-km model reproduces realistic diurnal cycle, but fails to capture realistic Madden-Julian Oscillation.     

Sensitivity of the diurnal warm layer to meteorological fluctuations. Part 2: A new parameterisation for diurnal warming

A new diurnal warming parameterisation has been developed which allows the shape of the diurnal sea surface temperature (SST) signal to change in response to meteorological fluctuations during the day based on an extensive examination of over 300 diurnal cycles. The parameterisation estimates the diurnal variation in temperature at the surface and at 1 m over a local day based only on wind and insolation measurements averaged over several different periods of the day. The parameterisation is validated against independent data and is compared against other existing parameterisations. Results show that diurnal warming estimates are more accurate when daily fluctuations in wind and insolation are taken into consideration and the new parameterisation captures some of the variability of the shape of the diurnal SST cycle which other parameterisations are unable to achieve. The parameterisation is currently being trialled in the European Space Agency MEDSPIRATION project (a contribution to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment High Resolution SST - Pilot Project) as a possible method to account for the diurnal variability in satellite measurements.     

The diurnal temperature wave for quadratic and exponential variation of the austausch coefficient

Summary Solutions of the heat conduction equation applied to the diurnal temperature wave are derived for two new cases: austausch increasing (a) quadratically and (b) exponentially with height. These solutions are compared with each other and with solutions for other cases where austausch is also unbounded with height. This procedure clarifies the applicability of all such solutions, and they are found to have serious limitations. The results indicate that the austausch coefficient at higher levels in theoretical models should be bounded as it is in nature.

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Zusammenfassung Die Wärmeleitungsgleichung der täglichen Temperaturwelle in der Luft wird für zwei neue Bedingungen gelöst, nämlich 1. für eine quadratische und 2. für eine exponentielle Zunahme des Austausches mit der Höhe. Die Lösungen werden miteinander und mit Lösungen für andere Fälle verglichen, wo der Austausch ebenfalls nicht mit der Höhe begrenzt ist. Unsere Methode wirft ein Licht auf die Anwendbarkeit aller derartigen Lösungen und zeigt, daß diese nur beschränkte Anwendbarkeit haben. Es geht daraus hervor, daß für theoretische Modelle der Austauschkoeffizient mit der Höhe begrenzt bleiben sollte, was den Verhältnissen in der Natur entspricht.

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Résumé L'équation de conductibilité thermique de la variation diurne de la température de l'air est résolue par l'auteur pour deux cas nouveaux; dans le premier l'échange turbulent augmente au carré, dans le second exponentiellement avec l'altitude. L'auteur compare ensuite ces solutions entre elles et avec celles provenant d'autres cas, où l'échange n'est pas non plus limité par l'altitude. Cette méthode donne de précieux renseignements sur les possibilités d'applications de ce genre de solutions, qui se montrent passablement limitées. Il en ressort également que pour des modèles théoriques le coefficient d'échange reste limité en altitude, ce qui correspond d'ailleurs aux conditions naturelles.

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With 2 Figures

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Contribution No. 16, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.     

不同地表情况下Cooray-Rubinstein算法的应用及其精度检验

将雷电水平电场Cooray-Rubinstein(C-R)算法推广应用于地表电导率垂直分层的情况,并利用时域有限差分(FDTD)方法对不同地表情况下C-R算法的精度进行检验。结果表明,C-R算法的适用条件为:距离回击通道为100~1 000 m、地表电导率介于0.001~0.01 S/m,最大误差小于10%。当土壤电导率均匀分布时,C-R算法的精度最好;对电导率水平分层的情况,当上层电导率小于下层电导率时,C-R算法的精度较优;当电导率垂直分层时,若观测点处的土壤电导率小于闪击点处的电导率时,C-R算法的计算精度较高,反之,精度较低;对任何光滑有耗地表而言,利用C-R算法计算的首次回击水平电场的精度优于继后回击。     

人影决策指挥地理信息平台的建立和应用

在“3S”集成应用技术思想指导下,利用Citystar3.0地理信息系统工具软件的GISOCX控件,将人工影响天气需要的多种气象和地理背景信息集成于同一平台上,从而建立起具有飞机、高炮、火箭人工增雨作业方案决策、实时监控、信息查询和效益评估等多种功能的地理信息平台,该平台可脱离Citystar GIS工具软件环境而单独运行,并实现了多源信息的实时输入、输出。     

中国暖季短时强降水分布和日变化特征及其与中尺度对流系统日变化关系分析

短时强降水是强对流天气的一类.基于中国国家气象信息中心质量控制后的1991-2009年876个基本基准气象站整点逐时降水资料,通过不同时段的发生时次频率分析,给出了中国暖季(4-9月)不小于10、20、30、40、50 mm/h短时强降水的时空分布特征,并重点同利用静止气象卫星红外相当黑体亮度温度(T_BB)资料获得的中尺度对流系统(MCS)日变化特征进行了对比分析.结果表明,中国短时强降水时次频率地理分布同暴雨(≥50mm/d)分布都非常相似,但50mm/h以上的短时强降水时次频率非常低,地理分布差异显着.短时强降水发生频率最高的区域为华南,其次为云南南部、四川盆地、贵州南部、江西和长江下游等地.最大降水强度可超过180mm/h(海南);在短时强降水发生频率很低的区域,也有超过50mm/h的强降水.从月际变化来看,7月最为活跃,其次为8月.逐候变化显示,短时强降水具有显着的间歇性发展特征(跳跃性分布的特征),但总体上呈现缓慢增强、迅速减弱的特点;以7月第4候最为活跃.中国总体平均的短时强降水的频率和最大强度的日变化有3个峰值,主峰在午后(16-17时,北京时),次峰在午夜后(01-02时)和早晨(07-08时);中午前后(10-13时)最不活跃.中国短时强降水和中尺度对流系统的日变化特征基本一致,但午夜后时段二者存在较大差异.不同区域的短时强降水和中尺度对流系统日变化具有不同的活跃时段和传播特征,具有单峰型、双峰型、多峰型和持续活跃型等日变化类型,这不仅与较大尺度的天气系统环流相关,且与地势、海陆等地理分布密切相关.     

Relative impacts of insolation changes, meltwater fluxes and ice sheets on African and Asian monsoons during the Holocene

In order to better understand the evolution of the Afro-Asian monsoon in the early Holocene, we investigate the impact on boreal summer monsoon characteristics of (1) a freshwater flux in the North Atlantic from the surrounding melting ice sheets and (2) a remnant ice sheet over North America and Europe. Sensitivity experiments run with the IPSL_CM4 model show that both the meltwater flux and the remnant ice sheets induce a cooling of similar amplitude of the North Atlantic leading to a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the tropical Atlantic and to a reduction of the African monsoon. The two perturbations have different impacts in the Asian sector. The meltwater flux results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon and no change in the East Asian monsoon, whereas the remnant ice sheets induce a strengthening of the Indian monsoon and a strong weakening of the East Asian monsoon. Despite the similar coolings in the Atlantic Ocean, the ocean heat transport is reduced only in the meltwater flux experiment, which induces slight differences between the two experiments in the role of the surface latent heat flux in the tropical energetics. In the meltwater experiment, the southward shift of the subtropical jet acts to cool the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and hence to weaken the Indian monsoon. In the ice sheet experiment this effect is overwhelmed by the changes in extratropical stationary waves induced by the ice sheets, which are associated with a larger cooling over the Eurasian continent than in the meltwater experiment. However these sensitivity experiments suggest that insolation is the dominant factor explaining the relative changes of the African, Indian and East Asian monsoons from the early to the mid-Holocene.     

Turbulent diffusivity and diurnal variations in the atmospheric boundary layer

Diurnal variations of the vertical profiles of wind and temperature have been surveyed, and the diffusivity and the dimensionless gradient function in the atmospheric boundary layer have been estimated. Even in the middle of the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g., below a height of 442 m), the vertical wind profile normalized by the surface friction velocity has approximately a universal profile function different from that in the surface boundary layer. Under strong stability conditions, the dimensionless gradient function has a value of about 9.     

An empirical formula for the height of the coastal internal boundary layer

Observations of the height of the daytime coastal internal boundary layer at several sites are used to justify an empirical formula in the Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) model, which states that the boundary-layer slope is 0.1 in the first 2km from the shoreline, and 0.03 therafter.     

喀什市降水日变化特征分析

利用1994～2013年5～9月喀什市气象站逐小时降水资料,分析喀什近20a降水日变化特征。研究表明,20时至翌日06时为降水量的高值阶段,最大值出现在01时,07时至19时为降水量的低值时段,最小值出现在16时。降水频次的高值区为00时至07时,降水最不易产生的时间为17时。降水强度最高值在20时,次高值为01时,也是累积降水量较大时刻,降水强度最低值出现在15时也是累积降水量的低值区。喀什的降水主要以短时性降水（1～3h）为主,多发生在傍晚至夜间,1h降水频次最多的是量级≤1mm的降水,但1.1mm≤R1≤3.0mm量级的降水贡献率最高。小雨、中雨及大雨降水过程最易发生时段均为前半夜,下午为各量级降水过程发生最少的时段。     

Observations of the diurnal oscillation of the inversion over the Israeli coast

Vertical profiles of temperature and humidity were measured over the sea in two series of 48 hours each, during the summer near the Israeli coast of the Mediterranean. A prominent inversion was observed in the temperature profiles. In the first series the average height of the inversion base was 350m and in the second, 600m. In the inversion a very sharp decrease of the absolute humidity was found. Below the inversion down to the sea surface the atmosphere was well mixed. A significant diurnal oscillation was observed at the height of the inversion base. During the day the inversion moved up and during the night it moved down. This movement was 250m in the first series and 450m in the second. The movement of the inversion base was almost adiabatic. It is suggested that the fluctuation in the height of the inversion base is mainly due to the developing breeze.     

湖北省梅雨期降水集中度和集中期研究

利用湖北省荆门市气象站1974-2014年分钟降水数据, 采用\     

Remote sensing-modelisation approach for diurnal estimation of burnt biomass in the Central African Republic Savanna

Experimental studies and mesoscale modeling of atmospheric chemistry require a good knowledge of the sources of the atmospheric constituent, at a temporal scale of about one hour and at a spatial scale corresponding to the model grid. A combined remote sensing/modeling approach for the estimation of the diurnal distribution of the amount of biomass burning in Central African Republic (C.A.R.) savanna fires is proposed. The fire propagation model (BEHAVE) developed by Rothermel was adapted to the fuel characteristics encountered in C.A.R. Ground and airborne measurements with satellite images (NOAA/AVHRR) were used to predict an accurate estimate of the burnt biomass. This combination allows the calculation of the distribution of the number of fires during the day providing an evaluation of the instantaneous fluxes of the compounds emitted in the atmosphere by these fires.     

An eddy-resolving simulation of the diurnal variation of fair-weather convection and tracer transport

Tracer transport in the atmosphere is controlled not only by synoptic-scale to mesoscale weather disturbances but also by microscale boundary-layer processes especially under fair-weather conditions. The present study investigates numerically the diurnal variation of boundary-layer convection and cumulus clouds and their role in transporting tracers by conducting high-resolution simulations that explicitly resolve turbulent eddies. The transport of dust aerosols in a desert area under two distinct stability conditions is specifically examined. Convection plays a significant role in transporting dust upward; in other words, the vertical depth of the dust transport is critically determined by the depth of convection. Deep convection is effective in transporting dust into the free atmosphere. The early morning stratification strongly regulates the temporal evolution and the vertical growth of convection and therefore the amount of tracer emission and transport. A sensitivity to model resolution of O (1 km) in a cloud-resolving simulation range is also examined. A proper parameterization for activating microscale convection is required for representing the diurnal variation of convection and tracer transport.