The analysis of the spatiotemporal variations and mechanisms for the near-surface wind speed over China in the last 40 years

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study mainly presents the spatiotemporal characteristics and changes of near-surface wind speed with observations from 679 stations over China for...     

Climate changes in the Amur River basin in the last 115 years

Tendencies in climate change in the Amur River basin are generally synchronous to the global ones. During the last century, the annual mean temperature of surface air increased by 1.3°C, minimum warming being observed in the east part of the basin (0.6°C) and maximum one in the west part (1.7–2.5°C). The largest impact on the annual mean temperature growth comes from winter and spring temperature increase (2–4°C/100 years). During the last 30 years, the warming rate in the basin was 2–3 times higher than during the whole period of 1891–2004. Simultaneously with warming in the Amur River basin, annual and warm-season precipitation totals increased by 8 and 6%, respectively, during the 115-year period. The highest increase in precipitation totals occurs in cold season (29% during 115 years). During the last 30 years, together with intense warming in the Amur River basin, the annual precipitation totals are found to decrease by an average of 2.1%/10 years.     

近50多年来淮河流域气候水分盈亏时空变化

水分盈亏是区域干湿气候划分的重要依据。基于淮河流域63个气象台站1957—2014年逐日观测数据,运用累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变分析、Morlet小波分析及ArcGIS反权重空间插值法,结合Penman-Monteith蒸散计算模型获得淮河流域水分盈亏量的周期特征、突变特征及其时空分布特征,并分析其主要影响因子。结果表明:(1)水分盈亏月变化基本符合5月最低,7月最高。(2)从季节分布来看,水分亏缺面积秋季春季冬季夏季,亏缺程度春季最强。从平均年水分盈亏量分布来看,水分盈亏量由南向北递减。且不论季节还是年状况,山地及河流对区域水分盈亏量的南北递减存在滞后作用。(3)从各因子气候倾向率的时空分布来看,江苏东南部、山东西部、河南大部、湖北中部水分盈亏量变化的主导因子为潜在蒸散量,其他区域的主导因子为降雨量。(4)淮河流域水分盈亏量存在周期特征,第一主周期为10 a。     

西北太平洋海域风浪、涌浪、混合浪波浪能资源特征

用ECMWF的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,应用波浪能流密度计算方法,对西北太平洋海域的风浪能、涌浪能、混合浪能展开研究。结果表明:(1)波浪能流密度呈现出显著季节性差异。混合浪能流密度表现为冬高夏低;春、夏、秋季的涌浪能流密度明显大于风浪能流密度,冬季相反;(2)混合浪能流密度的大值区主要分布于阿留申群岛附近海域,高值中心可达60 kW/m以上;近海的大值区主要分布于琉球群岛—巴士海峡—传统的南海大风区一带,年平均值在4 kW/m以上,南海北部可达12 kW/m以上;(3)黄渤海的涌浪和混合浪能流密度峰值出现在8—9月,波谷出现在6月。风浪能流密度峰值出现在11月—次年3月,波谷出现在6—8月,均呈现双峰型月变化特征。东海、南海北部、南海中南部海域能流密度的月变化特征相似,都为双峰型,12月—次年4月的能流密度整体较高,波峰出现在12月,波谷出现在5—7月;(4)2 kW/m以上混合浪能流密度出现的频率较高,近海低于大洋;(5)0.5 m以上有效波高出现的频率都非常高,中国近海稍低于大洋;(6)涌浪能流密度的稳定性明显好于风浪能流密度;大洋的能流密度稳定性明显强于近岸。1月份能流密度的稳定性最好,4月和7月次之,10月的稳定性最差。     

四川盆地近五十多年的气温变化趋势

本文回顾了四川盆地近五十多年来气温的时段性变化。从1997年开始的盆地性变暖,尚属国内气温变暖时期迟、变暖程度低的少数地区之一,随着时间的推移,还将进一步变暖,从而增加极端性天气的发生频率,需要认真应对。     

Geochemical evidence from corals for changes in the amplitude and spatial pattern of South Pacific interdecadal climate variability over the last 300 years

In the Pacific Ocean, the coherent pattern of interdecadal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last 100 years has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). To examine past variations in the IPO we have generated time series of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotopes (¹⁸O) from South Pacific Porites coral colonies growing at Rarotonga (1997 to 1726) and Fiji (1997 to 1780). At both sites skeletal Sr/Ca is highly correlated with instrumental SST at least back to 1970 and ¹⁸O appears to reflect both SST and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) effects on seawater ¹⁸O. Comparison of our results to a New Caledonia coral ¹⁸O record and to indices of interdecadal Pacific climate variability demonstrates that these South Pacific corals have accurately recorded twentieth century variations in the IPO and SPCZ. The coral records also indicate that higher amplitude and more spatially coherent IPO-related variability existed from 1880 to 1950 with notably poor between-site correlations in the mid-1800s. These observations suggest that the spatial IPO pattern in South Pacific SST was significantly more complex and/or poorly defined in the mid-1800s compared to that observed in the twentieth century. Comparison with North Pacific IPO indices also indicates that the degree of cross-hemispheric symmetry of interdecadal oceanographic variability has changed over time with a lower correlation between the North and South Pacific in the mid-1800s. This evidence suggests that the spatial pattern of the IPO at least in the South Pacific has varied over the last 300 years, with a major reorganization occurring after 1880 A.D.     

近50a江淮地区梅雨期水汽输送特征研究

利用1958—2007年ERA再分析风场及气压场资料和APHRO高分辨率逐日降水资料,对近50 a来梅雨期水汽输送的时空特征及其与江淮地区降水的关系进行了研究,发现各条水汽通道对江淮地区梅雨期降水强度及范围的影响程度均不同。梅雨期影响我国降水的水汽输送有显著的年际变化,并且水汽输送强弱年对应江淮地区降水强度也有明显差异。相关分析及合成差值的结果显示,西太平洋水汽输送贡献更大,且西太平洋水汽输送(东南通道)增强时,江淮地区降水增多。印度洋水汽输送的加强会减弱太平洋的水汽输送从而使得江淮少雨。在全球变暖的背景下,西太平洋的水汽输送对降水的增强作用有所减弱而印度洋输送所导致降水强度减弱的范围则明显扩大。自1980年起,江淮降水出现缓慢增多的趋势与全球变暖所导致的东亚环流异常进而影响水汽输送异常相关。     

气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例

 欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500 mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环（GLOWA-Elbe）项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50 a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。     

The thermal comfort and its changes in the 31 provincial capital cities of mainland China in the past 30 years

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The thermal comfort and its changes in the 31 provincial capital cities of mainland China in the past 30 years were comprehensively evaluated using...     

Role of a simplified hydrological cycle and clouds in regulating the climate–biota system of Daisyworld

The role of a simplified hydrological cycle and a physical representation of clouds is investigated in the Daisyworld model, subject to constant and variable solar forcing and varying cloud albedo and height. Under constant forcing, properties of the cloudy hydrologic cycle control the long-term system dynamics to non-oscillatory, oscillatory, abiotic or biotic states. In case of oscillatory solutions, their amplitude and periodicity are controlled by the net cooling or warming effects from clouds. Two conditions are considered under variable forcing—active or neutral—depending on the existence or not of biota–environment feedbacks. Temperature, cloudiness and hydrological variables are self-regulated in the active condition, whereas non-regulated in the neutral condition. Self-regulation is quantified through two measurements (luminosity range and total life), both of which can be larger in our model than in several other variants of Daisyworld, depending on cloud characteristics. The hydrological cycle and clouds can make the planet more habitable for life, independent of the capacity of the system for biological adaptation. Two hypotheses are put forward: (1) beneficial effects for life emerge from biota–clouds interactions, enhancing the global amount of life and extending the life span; and (ii) the existence of a maximum self-regulation capacity principle.     

江苏省近45a极端气候的变化特征

利用江苏省35个测站1960—2004年45 a的逐日最高温度、最低温度、日降水量资料集,分析了近45 a江苏省极端高温、极端低温以及极端降水的基本变化特征。结果表明:(1)多年平均年极端高温的空间分布表现为西高东低,而极端低温则表现为自北向南的显著增加,极端降水的发生频次自南向北逐渐减少;(2)极端高温在江苏中部以及南部大部分地区有上升趋势,而西北地区则有弱的下降趋势;全省极端低温表现为显著的升高趋势;极端降水频次在南部地区有增加的趋势,北部减少趋势,中部则无变化趋势。(3)江苏极端高温、低温和极端降水的年际和年代际变化具有区域性差异,其中极端降水频次变化的区域性差异最为明显。     

Magnitude and Frequency of Flooding in the Tagus Basin (Central Spain) over the Last Millennium

A relational database using Access, and an interface based on a Geographical Information System (GIS) with ArcView program, were created to allow spatial-temporal analysis of documentary flood data collected for the Tagus basin (Central Spain). High flood frequencies were registered in the periods: AD 1160–1210 (3%), 1540–1640 (11%; peak at 1590–1610), 1730–1760 (5%), 1780–1810 (4%), 1870–1900 (19%), 1930–1950 (17%) and 1960–1980 (12%). Flood magnitudes of those documentary events were estimated at four sites (Aranjuez, Toledo, Talavera and Alcántara) along the Tagus River using HEC-RAS Computer program, matching the calculated water surface profiles with historical references of flood stage. The largest floods took place during the periods AD 1168–1211 (Toledo and Talavera), AD 1658–1706 (Talavera), AD 1870–1900, and AD 1930–1950 (Aranjuez, Toledo, Talavera and Alcántara). The temporal distribution of flood magnitude and frequency is discussed within the context of climatic variability experienced by the Iberian Peninsula. Although flood producing mechanisms of Atlantic and Mediterranean basins of the Iberian Peninsula are related to different, independent atmospheric patterns, there is a clear coincidence between most periods showing high flood frequencies. These periods of high flooding seem to correspond to the initial and final decades of periods with climate deterioration described at the continental scale. This suggests that climatic variability over the last millennium has induced a response in hydrological extremes (positive or negative), irrespective of the flood-producing mechanism.     

青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCS)的数值模拟

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) developing over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on 26 July 1995 issimulated using the fifth version of the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). Theresults obtained are inspiring and are as follows. (1) The model simulates well the largescale conditionsin which the MCS concerned is embedded, which are the well-known anticyclonic Qinghai-Xizang PlateauHigh in the upper layers and the strong thermal forcing in the lower layers. In particular, the modelcaptures the meso-α scale cyclonic vortex associated with the MCS, which can be analyzed in the 500 hPaobservational winds; and to some degree, the model reproduces even its meso-β scale substructure similarto satellite images, reflected in the model-simulated 400 hPa rainwater. On the other hand, there aresome distinct deficiencies in the simulation; for example, the simulated MCS occurs with a lag of 3 hoursand a westward deviation of 3-5° longitude. (2) The structure and evolution of the meso-α scale vortexassociated with the MCS are undescribable for upper-air sounding data. The vortex is confined to thelower troposphere under 450 hPa over the plateau and shrinks its extent with height, with a diameter of4° longitude at 500 hPa. It is within the updraft area, but with an upper-level anticyclone and downdraftover it. The vortex originates over the plateau, and does not form until the mature stage of the MCS. Itlasts for 3-6 hours. In its processes of both formation and decay, the change in geopotential height fieldis prior to that in the wind field. It follows that the vortex is closely associated with the thermal effectsover the plateau. (3) A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of varioussurface thermal forcings and other physical processes on the MCS over the plateau. The results indicatethat under the background conditions of the upper-level Qinghai-Xizang High, the MCS involved is mainlydominated by the low-level thermal forcing. The simulation described here is a good indication that itmay be possible to reproduce the MCS over the plateau under certain large-scale conditions and with theincorporation of proper thermal physics in the lower layers.     

Results of statistical processing of simultaneous hydrological and hydrochemical characteristics of runoff from small rivers in Northwestern Russia (case study of the Upper Erga river)

Statistical processing of simultaneous multiyear field observations of biogenic pollutants and water discharges in a small river is carried out for the northwestern region of Russia. Stress (in terms of water pollution) periods are found. Estimates of the distribution parameters are considered, results of autocorrelation and correlation analyses are presented, and the results obtained are discussed.