The use of remotely sensed land cover to derive floodplain friction coefficients for flood inundation modelling

Remotely sensed land cover was used to generate spatially‐distributed friction coefficients for use in a two‐dimensional model of flood inundation. Such models are at the forefront of research into the prediction of river flooding. Standard practice, however, is to use single (static) friction coefficients on both the channel and floodplain, which are varied in a calibration procedure to provide a “best fit” to a known inundation extent. Spatially‐distributed friction provides a physically grounded estimate of friction that does not require fitting to a known inundation extent, but which can be fitted if desired. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to map these friction coefficients relatively straightforwardly and for low cost. Inundation was predicted using the LISFLOOD‐FP model for a reach on the River Nene, UK. Friction coefficients were produced from land cover predicted from Landsat TM imagery using both ML and fuzzy c‐means classifiction. The elevetion data used were from combined contour and differential global positioning system (GPS) elevation data. Predicted inundation using spatially‐distributed and static friction were compared. Spatially‐distributed friction had the greatest effect on the timing of flood inundation, but a small effect on predicted inundation extent. The results indicate that spatially‐distributed friction should be considered where the timing of initial flooding (e.g. for early warning) is important. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing the performance of a 2‐D finite element and a 2‐D finite volume model of floodplain inundation using airborne SAR imagery

The performances of a finite volume model (SFV) and finite element model (TELEMAC‐2D) in reproducing inundation on a 16 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom, are compared. Predicted inundation extents are compared with 4 airborne synthetic aperture radar images of a major flood event in November 2000, and these are used to calibrate 2 values of Manning's n for the channel and floodplain. The four images are shown to have different capacities to constrain roughness parameters, with the image acquired at low flow rate doing better in determining these parameters than the image acquired at approximately peak flow. This is assigned to the valley filling nature of the flood and the associated insensitivity of flood extent to changes in water level. The level of skill demonstrated by the models, when compared with inundation derived using a horizontal water free surface, also increases as flow rate drops. The two models show markedly different behaviours to the calibration process, with TELEMAC showing less sensitivity and lower optimum values for Manning's n than SFV. When the models are used in predictive mode, calibrated against one image and predicting another, SFV performs better than TELEMAC. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating glaciers raster‐based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study

A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ROC‐based calibration of flood inundation models

The use of spatial patterns of flood inundation (often obtained from remotely sensed imagery) to calibrate flood inundation models has been widespread over the last 15 years. Model calibration is most often achieved by employing one or even several performance measures derived from the well‐known confusion matrix based on a binary classification of flooding. However, relatively early on, it has been recognized that the use of commonly reported performance measures for calibrating flood inundation models (such as the F measure) is hampered because the calibration procedure commonly utilizes only one possible solution of a wet/dry classification of a remote sensing image [most often acquired by a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)] to calibrate or validate models and are biased towards either over‐prediction or under‐prediction of flooding. Despite the call in several studies for an alternative statistic, to this date, very few, if any, unbiased performance measure based on the confusion matrix has been proposed for flood model calibration/validation studies. In this paper, we employ a robust statistical measure that operates in the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) space and allows automated model calibration with high identifiability of the best model parameter set but without the need of a classification of the SAR image. The ROC‐based method for flood model calibration is demonstrated using two different flood event test cases with flood models of varying degree of complexity and boundary conditions with varying degree of accuracy. Verification of the calibration results and optional SAR classification is successfully performed with independent observations of the events. We believe that this proposed alternative approach to flood model calibration using spatial patterns of flood inundation should be employed instead of performance measures commonly used in conjunction with a binary flood map. © 2013 California Institute of Technology. Hydrological Processes © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference schemes based on the sampling approximation method for seismic modelling

We propose new implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference schemes with optimal coefficients based on the sampling approximation method to improve the numerical solution accuracy for seismic modelling. We first derive the optimized implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference coefficients of arbitrary even‐order accuracy for the first‐order spatial derivatives using the plane‐wave theory and the direct sampling approximation method. Then, the implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference coefficients based on sampling approximation, which can widen the range of wavenumber with great accuracy, are used to solve the first‐order spatial derivatives. By comparing the numerical dispersion of the implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference schemes based on sampling approximation, Taylor series expansion, and least squares, we find that the optimal implicit staggered‐grid finite‐difference scheme based on sampling approximation achieves greater precision than that based on Taylor series expansion over a wider range of wavenumbers, although it has similar accuracy to that based on least squares. Finally, we apply the implicit staggered‐grid finite difference based on sampling approximation to numerical modelling. The modelling results demonstrate that the new optimal method can efficiently suppress numerical dispersion and lead to greater accuracy compared with the implicit staggered‐grid finite difference based on Taylor series expansion. In addition, the results also indicate the computational cost of the implicit staggered‐grid finite difference based on sampling approximation is almost the same as the implicit staggered‐grid finite difference based on Taylor series expansion.     

A comparison of one‐ and two‐dimensional approaches to modelling flood inundation over complex upland floodplains

A much understudied aspect of flood inundation is examined, i.e. upland environments with topographically complex floodplains. Although the presence of high‐resolution topographic data (e.g. lidar) has improved the quality of river flood inundation predictions, the optimum dimensionality of hydraulic models for this purpose has yet to be fully evaluated for situations of both topographic and topological (i.e. the connectivity of floodplain features) complexity. In this paper, we present the comparison of three treatments of upland flood inundation using: (a) a one‐dimensional (1D) model (HEC‐RAS v. 3·1·2) with the domain defined as series of extended cross‐sections; (b) the same 1D model, but with the floodplain defined by a series of storage cells, hydraulically connected to the main river channel and other storage cells on the floodplain according to floodplain topological characteristics; (c) a two‐dimensional (2D) diffusion wave treatment, again with explicit representation of floodplain structural features. The necessary topographic and topological data were derived using lidar and Ordnance Survey Landline data. The three models were tested on a 6 km upland reach of the River Wharfe, UK. The models were assessed by comparison with measured inundation extent. The results showed that both the extended cross‐section and the storage cell 1D modes were conceptually problematic. They also resulted in poorer model predictions, requiring incorrect parameterization of the main river to floodplain flux in order to approach anything like the level of agreement observed when the 2D diffusion wave treatment was assessed. We conclude that a coupled 1D–2D treatment is likely to provide the best modelling approach, with currently available technology, for complex floodplain configurations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating remote sensing observations of flood hydrology and hydraulic modelling

The further development of two-dimensional finite element models of river flood flow is currently constrained by a lack of data for rigorous parameterization and validation. Remote sensing techniques have the potential to overcome a number of these constraints thereby allowing a research design for model development. This is illustrated with reference to a case study of a two-dimensional finite element model applied to the Missouri River, Nebraska and compared with a synchronous Landsat TM image of flood inundation extent. The case study allows research needs for the integration of hydraulic modelling and remote sensing to be defined. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interactions between subgrid‐scale resolution,feature representation and grid‐scale resolution in flood inundation modelling

Numerical modelling of flood inundation over large and complex floodplains often requires mesh resolutions coarser than the structural features (e.g. buildings) that are known to influence the inundation process. Recent research has shown that this mismatch is not well represented by conventional roughness treatments, but that finer‐scale features can be represented through porosity‐based subgrid‐scale treatments. This paper develops this work by testing the interactions between feature representation, subgrid‐scale resolution and mesh resolution. It uses as the basis for this testing a 2D diffusion‐based flood inundation model which is applied to a 2004 flood event in a topologically complex upland floodplain in northern England. This study formulated simulations with different grid mesh resolution and subgrid mesh ratio. The sensitivity of the model to mesh resolution and roughness specification was investigated. Model validation and verification suggest that the subgrid treatment with higher subgrid mesh ratio can give much improved predictions of flood propagation, in particular, in terms of the predicted water depth. This study also highlighted the limitation of using at‐a‐point in time inundation extent for validation of flood models of this type. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large‐scale modelling of channel flow and floodplain inundation dynamics and its application to the Pantanal (Brazil)

For large‐scale sites, difficulties for applying coupled one‐dimensional (1D)/2D models for simulating floodplain inundation may be encountered related to data scarcity, complexity for establishing channel–floodplain connections, computational cost, long duration of floods and the need to represent precipitation and evapotranspiration processes. This paper presents a hydrologic simulation system, named SIRIPLAN, developed to accomplish this aim. This system is composed by a 1D hydrodynamic model coupled to a 2D raster‐based model, and by two modules to compute the vertical water balance over floodplain and the water exchanges between channel and floodplain. Results are presented for the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB), including the Pantanal, one of the world's largest wetlands. A total of 3965 km of river channels and 140 000 km² of floodplains are simulated for a period of 11 years. Comparison of observed and calculated hydrographs at 15 gauging stations showed that the model was capable to simulate distinct, complex flow regimes along main channels, including channel‐floodplain interactions. The proposed system was also able to reproduce the Pantanal seasonal flood pulse, with estimated inundated areas ranging from 35 000 km² (dry period) to more than 120 000 km² (wet period). Floodplain inundation maps obtained with SIRIPLAN were consistent with previous knowledge of Pantanal dynamics, but comparison with inundation extent provided by a previous satellite‐based study indicates that permanently flooded areas may have been underestimated. The results obtained are promising, and further work will focus on improving vertical processes representation over floodplains and analysing model sensitivity to floodplain parameters, time step and precipitation estimates uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐scale modelling approach for the pushover analysis of existing RC shear walls—Part I: Model formulation

This work focuses on the modelling issues related to the adoption of the pushover analysis for the seismic assessment of existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. To this purpose a prototype reference structure, one of the RC shear walls designed according to the multi‐fuse concept and tested on shaking table for the CAMUS project, is modelled at different levels of refinement. The meso‐scale of a stiffness‐based fibre element and the micro‐scale of the finite element (FE) method are herein adopted; in the latter separate elements are adopted for the concrete, the steel and the steel–concrete interface. This first of the two companion papers presents in detail the wall under study, illustrating the design philosophy, the geometry of the wall, the instrumentation set‐up and the test programme. The two modelling approaches are then described; the most important points in terms of element formulation and constitutive relations for materials are presented and discussed for each approach, in the light of the particular design of the wall and of its experimental behaviour. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F^{<2 >}) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remote sensing and GIS‐based flood vulnerability assessment of human settlements: a case study of Gangetic West Bengal,India

Flooding due to excessive rainfall in a short period of time is a frequent hazard in the flood plains of monsoon Asia. In late September 2000, a devastating flood stuck Gangetic West Bengal, India. This particular event has been selected for this study. Instead of following the conventional approach of flooded area delineation and overall damage estimation, this paper seeks to identify the rural settlements that are vulnerable to floods of a given magnitude. Vulnerability of a rural settlement is perceived as a function of two factors: the presence of deep flood water in and around the settlement and its proximity to an elevated area for temporary shelter during an extreme hydrological event. Landsat ETM⁺ images acquired on 30 September 2000 have been used to identify the non‐flooded areas within the flooded zone. Particular effort has been made to differentiate land from water under cloud shadow. ASTER digital elevation data have been used to assess accuracy and rectify the classified image. The presence of large numbers of trees around rural settlements made it particularly difficult to extract the flooded areas from their spectral signatures in the visible and infrared bands. ERS‐1 synthetic aperture radar data are found particularly useful for extracting the settlement areas surrounded by trees. Finally, all information extracted from satellite imageries are imported into ArcGIS, and spatial analysis is carried out to identify the settlements vulnerable to river inundation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A computational finite‐element program for hybrid simulation

The essence of real time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is the reliance on a physical test (virtual finite element) in support of a numerical simulation, which is unable to properly simulate it numerically. Hence, the computational support for a hybrid simulation is of paramount importance, and one with anything less than a state of the art computational support may defeat the purpose of such an endeavor. A critical, yet often ignored, component of RTHS is precisely the computational engine, which unfortunately has been a bottleneck for realistic studies. Most researches have focused on either the control or on the communication (mostly in distributed, non‐real time hybrid simulation) leaving the third leg of RTHS (computation) ignored and limited to the simulation of simple models (small number of degrees of freedom and limited nonlinearities). This paper details the development of a specialized software written explicitly to perform, single site, hybrid simulation ranging from pseudo‐dynamic to hard real time ones. Solution strategy, implementation details, and actual applications are reported. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An adaptive free‐surface expression for three‐dimensional finite‐difference frequency‐domain modelling of elastic wave

Finite‐difference frequency‐domain modelling of seismic wave propagation is attractive for its efficient solution of multisource problems, and this is crucial for full‐waveform inversion and seismic imaging, especially in the three‐dimensional seismic problem. However, implementing the free surface in the finite‐difference method is nontrivial. Based on an average medium method and the limit theorem, we present an adaptive free‐surface expression to describe the behaviour of wavefields at the free surface, and no extra work for the free‐surface boundary condition is needed. Essentially, the proposed free‐surface expression is a modification of density and constitutive relation at the free surface. In comparison with a direct difference approximate method of the free‐surface boundary condition, this adaptive free‐surface expression can produce more accurate and stable results for a broad range of Poisson's ratio. In addition, this expression has a good performance in handling the lateral variation of Poisson's ratio adaptively and without instability.     

Daily streamflow modelling and assessment based on the curve‐number technique

A cell‐based long‐term hydrological model (CELTHYM) that can be integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) was developed to predict continuous stream flow from small agricultural watersheds. The CELTHYM uses a cell‐by‐cell soil moisture balance approach. For surface runoff estimation, the curve number technique considering soil moisture on a daily basis was used, and release rate was used to estimate baseflow. Evapotranspiration was computed using the FAO modified Penman equation that considered land‐use‐based crop coefficients, soil moisture and the influence of topography on radiation. A rice paddy field water budget model was also adapted for the specific application of the model to East Asia. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to obtain operational information about the model calibration parameters. The CELTHYM was calibrated and verified with measured runoff data from the WS#1 and WS#3 watersheds of the Seoul National University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, in Hwaseong County, Kyounggi Province, South Korea. The WS#1 watershed is comprised of about 35·4% rice paddy fields and 42·3% forest, whereas the WS#3 watershed is about 85·0% forest and 11·5% rice paddy fields. The CELTHYM was calibrated for the parameter release rate, K, and soil moisture storage coefficient, STC, and results were compared with the measured runoff data for 1986. The validation results for WS#1 considering all daily stream flow were poor with R², E² and RMSE having values of 0·40, ?6·63 and 9·69 (mm), respectively, but validation results for days without rainfall were statistically significant (R² = 0·66). Results for WS#3 showed good agreement with observed data for all days, and R², E² and RMSE were 0·92, 0·91 and 2·23 (mm), respectively, suggesting potential for CELTHYM application to other watersheds. The direct runoff and water balance components for watershed WS#1 with significant areas of paddy fields did not perform well, suggesting that additional study of these components is needed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood‐loss modelling for assessing impacts of flood‐frequency adjustment,Middle Mississippi River,USA

This study modelled flood losses (economic damages) along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR) (1) using current US government estimates of flow frequencies and (2) using frequencies based on the original, unaltered discharge measurements. The official flood frequencies were quantified in the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS), but as a last step in that study, early discharges along the MMR were reduced by up to 54% to reflect a purported bias in early measurements. Subsequently, early discharge measurements were rigorously tested, and no such bias was found. Here, flood damages were quantified using a combination of one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling and flood‐loss modelling. For all recurrence intervals, damages were much less using the UMRSFFS flow frequencies compared with the frequencies based on the original discharge measurements, with differences ranging up to 79% (100‐year event) and $2.9bn (200‐year event). Annualized losses in the study area based on the UMRSFFS frequencies were just $41.6m versus $125.6m using the raw frequencies (an underestimation of 67%). These totals do not include flood losses elsewhere along the MMR, including in metropolitan St Louis. In summary, a seemingly small methodological adjustment – in this case, a single hidden adjustment, not documented anywhere within the UMRSFFS – can have dramatic societal impacts in terms of underestimation of flood probabilities and flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of vertical water balance on modelling Pantanal (Brazil) spatio‐temporal inundation dynamics

The current benchmark approach for mathematical modelling of floodplain hydrologic regime consists of dynamically coupling one‐dimensional (1D) and two‐dimensional (2D) models for flow routing along the main channel and the floodplain, respectively. For large‐scale sites, floodplain inundation may spread over hundreds of square kilometres and may last for many months and even influence seasonal floods in following years. This paper aims at evaluating the effect of vertical water balance representation on modelling a large‐scale floodplain. The Pantanal wetland (140 000 km²; Brazil) is simulated using a 1D/2D coupled model approach, which also considers the representation of vertical water processes over the floodplain. Four scenarios are simulated: Baseline (the reference scenario), NoVertBal (in which the vertical water balance over floodplain is turned off) and ETp+1 and ETp?1 scenarios, characterized by artificially increasing or decreasing daily potential evapotranspiration (ETp) by 1 mm, respectively. The results showed that the effect of the vertical water processes scenarios on channel flow is directly dependent on the lateral exchange of water between the channel and floodplain in the upstream river reach. This influence is stronger when there is a gain of water from the floodplain to the channel. The inclusion of these vertical water processes into floodplain modelling was essential to represent the process of wetting and drying, this effect being more relevant for areas not directly connected to main channels, which is a characteristic of the Pantanal region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using the applied element method for modelling calcium silicate brick masonry subjected to in‐plane cyclic loading

The response of calcium silicate unreinforced masonry construction to horizontal cyclic loading has recently become the focus of experimental and numerical research, given its extensive use in some areas of the world that are now exposed to induced earthquakes (eg, north of the Netherlands). To assess the seismic behaviour of such construction, a relatively wide range of modelling methodologies are available, amongst which the discrete elements approach, which takes into account the intrinsic heterogeneity of a brick‐mortar assembly, can probably be deemed as the most appropriate computational procedure. On the other hand, however, since discrete elements numerical methods are based on a discontinuum domain, often they are not able to model every stage of the structural response adequately, and because of the high computational burden required, the analysis scale should be chosen carefully. The applied element method is a relatively recent addition to the discrete elements family, with a high potential for overcoming the aforementioned limitations or difficulties. Initially conceived to model blast events and concrete structures, its use in the earthquake engineering field is, of late, increasing noticeably. In this paper, the use of the applied element method to model the in‐plane cyclic response of calcium silicate masonry walls is discussed and scrutinised, also through the comparison with experimental results of in‐plane cyclic shear‐compression tests on unreinforced masonry walls.