A new method for estimation of near surface specific humidity over global oceans

Summary A new methodology for deriving daily averages of near surface specific humidity (Q _a ) is developed. Remotely sensed parameters, total water vapor (W), boundary-layer water vapor (W _b ), and sea-surface temperature (SST) are used to derive Q _a . Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to find the empirical function relating the input (W, W _b , and SST) and output (Q _a ) parameters. The input data consist of 2 years (1999–2000) of daily W, W _b , from SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager), and SST data from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer). COADS (Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set) observations of Q _a are used to develop and evaluate the new methodology. The performance of the algorithm is measured with COADS observations, which are not used in the development phase. The global mean rms error for daily averages Q _a is 1.5 ± 0.40 g/kg. Slightly higher discrepancies between Q _a derived from the new method and COADS observations are found over the Northwestern Pacific, North Atlantic oceans and Arabian Sea. This method improves upon the humidity retrieval of Liu (1986), Schulz et al (1993), and Chou et al (1997).     

全球变化背景下多尺度干旱过程及预测研究进展

干旱是一种周期性的气候异常,主要受气候自然变率驱动,具有发展缓慢、持续时间长、影响范围广等特征。然而,气候变化使得干旱不仅有增加趋势,其特征也在发生变化。例如,发展迅速的干旱,也称骤旱,近年来频繁发生。此外,人类活动通过改变陆地水循环,直接或间接地影响干旱过程。在全球变化背景下,干旱机制研究由海-陆-气相互作用影响气象干旱的气候动力学研究扩展到包含干旱传递过程机理认识、考虑区域尺度人类活动影响,面向农业、水利、生态等行业的农业干旱和水文干旱研究,为认识干旱可预报性、发展预测方法带来了新的挑战。本文将针对多尺度干旱过程及预测,讨论相关的研究进展及未来发展方向。     

The global electrical circuit: A review

Research topics on the global electrical circuit are addressed that have received attention in recent years. These topics include the diurnal variation of the global circuit, surface measurements of electric field at high latitude, the annual variation, the semiannual variation, the role of lightning as a source for the global circuit, the electrical contribution of mesoscale convective systems, the possible effect of thunderstorms on the E and F regions of the ionosphere, the evidence for a global circuit impact from nuclear weapons tests, the controversy over long-term variations, the response to climate change, and finally the impact of the global circuit on climate.     

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.     

International wood trade and forest change: A global analysis

Throughout history, humans have transformed natural forests into agricultural land, settlement areas and managed forests. Studies on the dynamics of forest change are one of the mainstays in land change science. The forest transition theory offers a powerful tool to analyze changes in human interference with forests. At the national level, a range of factors have been found to influence a country's forest change. The role of international wood product trade has, however, rarely been studied based on empirical data. We offer a global assessment of how this trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating forest stock change to net trade of wood products for the period 1997-2007 and by localizing the origin of wood consumed in a given nation. For many nations, traded wood products have a relevant impact on the course of ongoing forest transitions. We develop a general typology of how wood product trade can influence forest change and place various nations within this framework. We find that many wealthy nations with returning forests seem to accelerate this return by importing wood products. These imports appear to be provided by two main types of wood exporters: (a) by wealthy countries with low population densities and stable forests and (b) by relatively poor countries with declining forests, employing increasing population and welfare levels. We discuss these findings in the light of general theories on land use transitions and forest change and conclude by highlighting implications for national forest policies and global environmental governance, aiming at reducing negative impacts of wood products and enhancing the positive role they can play in replacing more fossil fuel intensive products.     

Air-sea fluxes over the global oceans during the FGGE year

Summary Vertical fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat have been estimated over the surface of the global oceans. A three-dimensional mesh grid 32 longitude points, 17 latitude points and 365 days from December 1, 1978 to November 30, 1979 is used to obtain seasonal and annual mean values of the surface fluxes. The global climatology shows the seasonal variation, the continental influence, the principal ocean currents and the typical middle latitude (30°–50°) and tropical effects (30°S–30°N). The annual mean of latent heat shows greater flux over the subtropical regions (~ 280 W/m²) than in the polar regions (~ 80 W/m²). On the other hand, the annual mean of sensible heat shows greater flux over the polar regions (~ 100 W/m²) than in the tropics (~ 40 W/m²). Time series analyses of the daily estimates of the surface fluxes show greater energy at high frequencies due to the surface effect; however, the low-frequency spectra show relatively high energy at the 30- to 50-day mode, especially for the middle latitude regions. The 30–50 day filtered data for the surface fluxes, presented in time/latitude cross-sections for the middle latitude regions show a westerly wave propagation with wave numberK = 2 and phase speed of the order of 12 degrees/day from June to August over the southern hemisphere at 55°S.

---

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Einschätzung der vertikalen Impuls-Flüsse und der Flüsse von sensibler und latenter Wärme über der gesamten Meeresoberfläche. Ein dreidimensionales Gitter mit 32 × 17 Punkten und Daten von 365 Tagen (von 1. 12. 1978 bis 30. 11. 1979) wird benutzt, um sowohl Jahreszeiten als auch Jahresmittelwerte der Oberflächenflüsse zu erhalten. Die globale Klimatologie zeigt die jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen, den kontinentalen Einfluß, die wichtigsten Meeresströmungen und die typischen Effekte der mittleren Breiten (30°–50°) und der Tropen (30°S–30°N). Das Jahresmittel latenter Wärme weist größere Flüsse über subtropischen Regionen (ca. 280 W/m²) als über polaren Regionen (ca. 80 W/m²) auf, während andererseits das Jahresmittel sensibler Wärme über Polarregionen (ca. 100 W/m²) größere Flüsse als über den Tropen (ca. 40 W/m²) aufweist. Zeitreihen-Analysen der täglichen Schätzwerte von Oberflächenflüssen deuten auf mehr Energie bei hohen Frequenzen aufgrund des Oberflächeneffekts hin; in jedem Fall zeigen die Niederfrequenz-Spektren relativ hohe Energie in den 30 – 50-Tage-Perioden, besonders für mittlere Breiten. Die über einen Zeitraum von 30 – 50 Tagen gesammelten Daten der Oberflächenflüsse dargestellt in Zeit-Breiten-Querschnitten für mittlere Breiten zeigen von Juni bis August über der südlichen Hemisphäre bei 55°S eine Ausbreitung der westlichen Wellen mit der WellenzahlK = 2 und einer Phasengeschwindigkeit im Ausmaß von 12° pro Tag.

---

---

With 7 Figures     

Meta-analyses of case studies: A method for studying regional and global environmental change

As case studies of global environmental change accumulate over time, ways of summarizing these findings and bringing them to the attention of policymakers become more necessary. In summarized form, these findings might, for example, tell us new things about regional and pan-regional trends in tropical forest cover. This paper proposes a method for analyzing and summarizing the findings from the case studies. It illustrates the method through a meta-analysis of local studies of forest cover change in Mexico, and discusses how the method can produce credible, insightful findings about global environmental change.     

Land-use and climate change within assessments of biodiversity change: A review

Projected changes in biodiversity are likely inadequately estimated when climate and land-use change effects are examined in isolation. A review of studies of the effects of these drivers singly and in combination highlights little discussed complexities in revising these estimates. In addition to considering interactions, different characterisations of climate change, land-use change and biodiversity greatly influence estimates. Habitat loss leading to decreased species richness is the most common land-use change and biodiversity relationship considered with less attention being given to other land-use changes (e.g. other conversions, fragmentation, different management intensities) and biodiversity characterisations and responses (e.g. selected groups of species, increased species richness). Characterisations of more complex relationships between climate change, land-use change and biodiversity however are currently limited by a lack of process understanding, data availability and inherent scenarios uncertainties.     

Uncertainties of estimates of climatic change: A review

While climate modeling gives substantial information about the future climate, there are still many uncertainties. This review addresses the question of the response of the climate system to forcing by increasing atmospheric trace gases. The uncertainties of greatest concern are: the transient adjustment controlled by ocean heat uptake; the cover of snow and ice in high latitudes; the change in cloud radiative properties; and shifts in regional patterns connected to the ocean and land surfaces and to the internal dynamics of the atmosphere.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.