Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning.     

基于RS与GIS的层次分析法在滑坡危险性评估中的应用——以四川宣汉天台乡滑坡为例

基于遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)技术,采用多层次分析(AHP)法,以四川宣汉天台乡为研究区,根据该区实际情况,选取线性构造、道路、土地利用、坡度、坡向5种影响滑坡灾害发生的因素作为评价因子,进行区域滑坡危险性评估。在ArcGIS的空间分析环境中运行权重叠加,把研究区划分成滑坡极易发生区、易发生区、一般发生区、可能发生区、难发生区和极难发生区。通过实地调查和与研究区的滑坡灾害实证研究结果进行比较,发现评估结果与实际状况较为吻合,研究方法能够准确地评估区域滑坡灾害危险性的程度。     

The Role of Data Processing and Uncertainty Management in Seismic Hazard Evaluations: Insights from Estimates in the Garfagnana–Lunigiana Area (Northern Italy)

Significantly different estimates of seismic hazard may result for the same site as aneffect of different methodological choices underlying the adopted procedures. In orderto explore this aspect, two approaches devoted to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are considered for the evaluation of hazard in a seismic area in Northern Italy. In particular, results of a standard procedure are compared with those obtained by an innovative approach. Fundamental features of this last methodology are the extensive use of intensity data relative to seismic effects observed at the site of interest during past earthquakes and the basic role attributed to the parameterisation of uncertainty which affects the considered pieces ofinformation. The analysis indicates that the new approach supplies results significantlydifferent from those obtained from standard methodology and that these differences strongly depend on strategies adopted for data processing and for the management of uncertainties which affect input parameters.     

Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.     

Effusive Activity at Mount Etna Volcano (Italy) During the 20th Century: A Contribution to Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Mount Etna is an open conduit volcano, characterised by persistent activity, consisting of degassing and explosive phenomena at summit craters, frequent flank eruptions, and more rarely, eccentric eruptions. All eruption typologies can give rise to lava flows, which represent the greatest hazard by the volcano to the inhabited areas. Historical documents and scientific papers related to the 20th century effusive activity have been examined in detail, and volcanological parameters have been compiled in a database. The cumulative curve of emitted lava volume highlights the presence of two main eruptive periods: (a) the 1900–1971 interval, characterised by a moderate slope of the curve, amounting to 436 × 10⁶ m³ of lava with average effusion rate of 0.2 m³/s and (b) the 1971–1999 period, in which a significant increase in eruption frequency is associated with a large issued lava volume (767 × 10⁶ m³) and a higher effusion rate (0.8 m³/s). The collected data have been plotted to highlight different eruptive behaviour as a function of eruptive periods and summit vs. flank eruptions. The latter have been further subdivided into two categories: eruptions characterised by high effusion rates and short duration, and eruptions dominated by low effusion rate, long duration and larger volume of erupted lava. Circular zones around the summit area have been drawn for summit eruptions based on the maximum lava flow length; flank eruptions have been considered by taking into account the eruptive fracture elevation and combining them with lava flow lengths of 4 and 6 km. This work highlights that the greatest lava flow hazard at Etna is on the south and east sectors of the volcano. This should be properly considered in future land-use planning by local authorities.     

青藏高原东南缘现今大震活动特征及其趋势：活动构造体系角度的初步分析结果

青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系是地质力学中最为典型的反"S"状(或"Z"状)旋扭构造体系,其中各构造部位之间在运动学与动力学方面具有密切的成生联系,并且现今活动性非常显著,属于典型的活动构造体系。梳理分析该构造体系中M≥6.8历史大地震的活动状况发现,与其运动学方面的整体性与协调性相对应,其头部、中部与尾部之间的大地震活动具有明显的联动效应,即当头部与尾部发生大地震序列后不久(大致为几个月、几年或十几年尺度),中部(尤其是我国的川滇强震区)随即也会发生大地震。但在1997年以来的最近一次大地震活动序列中,构成该构造体系中段的川滇地区却出现了长达15年之久的"异常平静"状态,这无疑意味着该区未来发生大地震的危险性将显著增加。进一步结合西南地区川滇弧形旋扭活动构造体系研究的最新成果,依据活动断裂带上大地震危险性判定的离逝时间、地震空区和强震连锁反应等"三准则",初步认为该区当前存在至少9个比较明显的大地震危险区带,包括:鲜水河-小江断裂带上的安宁河段、巧家段和南端的澄江-建水段,理塘-大理-瑞丽弧形活动构造带上的畹町断裂带和南汀河断裂带、滇西北裂陷带中的鹤庆-松桂断陷盆地区和程海-宾川断裂带期纳-宾川段,澜沧-景洪断裂带的景洪段,以及近南北向的保山断陷盆地和元谋断陷盆地。这一研究结果将有助于进一步全面认识我国西南地区当前的大地震形势,进而科学部署开展地震地质与地震预报预测工作。     

Automicrite in a ‘nummulite bank’ from the Monte Saraceno (Southern Italy): evidence for synsedimentary cementation

Following introduction of the term ‘nummulite bank’, there has been debate regarding interpretation of these types of deposits as autochthonous (automicrite) or allochthonous (detrital micrite). These banks are made up of large foraminifera and ill‐defined fine‐grained components. The fine‐grained components consist mainly of micrites. The recognition of automicrite has deep implications for the synsedimentary cementation and stabilization of the bank. In order to distinguish between automicrite and detrital micrite, the nanomorphology, geochemistry and organic matter remains in the microfacies of a nummulite bank in the Middle Eocene of Monte Saraceno (Gargano, Southern Italy) were analysed. Optical and scanning electron microscope investigations showed that the micrites have been recrystallized to aggrading microsparite. Epifluorescence observations on selected micrite/microsparite areas with peloidal texture revealed the presence of organic matter. Scanning electron microscope analyses on epifluorescent micrites showed that the microbial peloids have smaller crystal sizes than those in organic matter‐depleted areas. The geochemical characterization of extracted organic matter, performed through the functional group analyses by Fourier transform‐infrared spectroscopy, shows strong prevalence of the aromatic fraction over the aliphatic and carboxylic ones. These characteristics of organic compounds indicate both their thermal maturation and their likely derivation from degradation of bacterial communities. The local presence of peloidal anti‐gravity textures, bright epifluorescence and organic molecules in clotted peloidal areas suggest that the metabolic activity of microbial communities could have induced precipitation of these micrites and, consequently, the syndepositional cementation of the nummulite bank. This type of cementation can rapidly stabilize sediments and promote the depositional bank geometry.     

准噶尔盆地南缘侏罗系煤生烃热模拟实验研究

采用黄金管-高压釜热模拟体系,开展准噶尔盆地南缘地区侏罗系八道湾组和西山窑组煤的生油和生气演化特征研究,对区域油气资源评价和油气资源研究具有重要意义。煤热模拟实验结果表明,准噶尔盆地南缘八道湾组煤生油潜力明显高于西山窑组煤,其生油高峰在R_o(镜质体反射率)=1.07%,最大生油产率的分布范围为60.13~83.27 mg/g,具有一定的排油能力;西山窑组煤生油高峰在R_o=0.96%,最大生油产率分布范围为27.14~62.14 mg/g,部分样品具有一定的排油能力。八道湾组煤和西山窑组煤生气能力接近且均较好,生气窗长。R_o为0.90%时,煤开始生气;R_o在1.07%~1.65%时,煤进入快速生湿气阶段,煤裂解气产量是最大产气量的50%左右;R_o达1.65%后,煤进入干酪根裂解生气阶段;R_o在3.60%时,煤生气基本结束,最大生气产率分布范围为92.23~141.26 mg/g。南缘西段艾卡构造带八道湾组煤层厚度为10~20 m,R_o在1.0%左右,处于煤生油高峰,生油量在57.10~81.19 mg/g,且煤具有有机碳含量高的特点,认为该区煤具有形成带气顶的油藏的潜力。准噶尔盆地南缘中段霍玛吐背斜带和昌吉—乌鲁木齐地区侏罗系煤层厚度大,最厚达60 m,烃源岩R_o在1.3%~2.0%之间,处于煤大量生干气阶段,生气量为60.21~104.27 mg/g,认为准噶尔盆地南缘中段煤具有形成凝析气藏和干气藏的条件。