Tropical cyclone-induced wave hazard assessment in Hainan Island,China

With the rapid expansion of the scale of deep sea net-cage use in the nearshore area of Hainan Island, tropical cyclone-induced wave hazard assessment is urgently needed. In this study, the wind-wave-current coupled ADCIRC?+?SWAN model, which considers the effects of tidal and storm surges, was used to simulate tropical cyclone events over the last 33 years. This model adopts an unstructured high-resolution grid with a nearshore resolution of up to 100 m. The compared simulated results and observations during typhoons JEBI (2013), HAIYAN (2013) and KALMAEGI (2014) were in agreement. This study statistically analyzed maximum significant wave heights on the basis of a large set of simulated storm wave level maps to derive the wave heights of different return periods. Then, the results of nearshore wave hazard classification were obtained by applying the affinity propagation (AP) clustering method to dozens of nearshore profiles. The results demonstrate that the risk at any point in the nearshore area of Hainan Island is dominated by the wave hazard type and water depth condition. The wave hazard assessment method developed for Hainan Island will be significant in assisting government decision-making in the rational planning of deep sea net-cage aquaculture.

     

Waves off Puducherry, Bay of Bengal, during cyclone THANE

We studied the wave characteristics during the very severe cyclonic storm THANE which crossed the east coast of India between Puducherry and Cuddalore based on waves measured at a location in Bay of Bengal at 14 m water depth. Objective of the paper is to document the highest wave height measured in the nearshore waters of east coast of India. On 29 December 2011, cyclone passed within 77–315 km of the wave measurement location with maximum wind speed of 46.3 m/s (90 knots) and resulted in maximum wave height of 8.1 m. Maximum wave height recorded is 0.54 times the water depth, and the ratio of crest height to wave height of the highest wave recorded is 0.65. Maximum value of significant wave height estimated using the parametric wave model for deep-water conditions is 6.4 m, whereas the measured value is 6 m indicating that parametric wave model estimates the wave height reasonably well (within 8 % error) during the cyclone period.     

Extremity analysis of storm surge for fixing safe design water level

Phenomenal storm surge levels associated with cyclones are common in East Coast of India. The coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh are in rapid stride of myriad marine infrastructural developments. The safe elevations of coastal structures need a long-term assessment of storm surge conditions. Hence, past 50 years (1949–1998), tropical cyclones hit the Bay are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorological & Oceanographic Center, USA, and analyzed to assess the storm surge experienced around Kakinada and along south Andhra Pradesh coast. In this paper, authors implemented Rankin Hydromet Vortex model and Bretschneider’s wind stress formulation to hindcast the surge levels. It is seen from the hindcast data that the November, 1977 cyclone has generated highest surge of the order of 1.98 m. Extreme value analysis is carried out using Weibull distribution for long-term prediction. The results reveal that the surge for 1 in 100-year return period is 2.0 m. Further the highest surge in 50 years generated by the severe cyclone (1977) is numerically simulated using hydrodynamic model of Mike-21. The simulation results show that the Krishnapatnam, Nizampatnam and south of Kakinada have experienced a surge of 1.0, 1.5 and 0.75 m, respectively.     

Application of Weibull model for redefined significant wave height distributions

It is well accepted that the parent distribution for individual ocean wave heights follows the Weibull model. However this model does not simulate significant wave height which is the average of the highest one-third of some ‘n’ (n- varies) wave heights in a wave record. It is now proposed to redefine significant wave height as average of the highest one-third of a constant number (n-constant, say,n = 100) of consecutive individual wave heights. The Weibull model is suggested for simulating redefined significant wave height distribution by the method of characteristic function. An empirical support of 100.00% is established by Χ²-test at 0.05 level of significance for 3 sets of data at 0900, 1200 and 1500 hrs at Valiathura, Kerala coast. Parametric relations have been derived for the redefined significant wave height parameters such as mean, maximum one-third average, extreme wave heights, return periods of an extreme wave height and the probability of realising an extreme wave height in a time less than the designated return period.     

Demarcation of inland vessels’ limit off Mormugao port region,India: a pilot study for the safety of inland vessels using wave modelling

The Ministry of Shipping desires to revise the inland vessels’ limit (IVL) notification based on scientific rationale to improve the safety of vessels and onboard personnel. The Mormugao port region extending up to the Panaji was considered for this pilot study. Measured winds and wave parameters (AWS and moored buoy) as well as NCEP re-analysis and NCMRWF winds were used for the analysis and input to regional and local models. The results of wave model were validated with measured significant wave heights (SWHs) and the comparison shows a good match. The analysis indicates that SWHs do not exceed 2.0 m during non-monsoon months, and in monsoon months exceed 5.0 m, and even 7.0 m, especially during extreme events. In order to draw IVL contours for Goa coastal region, local model was set up and nearshore waves were simulated for the period May 2004–May 2005. Based on the nearshore SWH distribution, IVL contours have been fixed for the Mormugao port and Panaji coastal regions.     

Interaction of monsoonal wave, current and tide near Gopalpur, east coast of India, and their impact on beach profile: a case study

A 97-day-long record on waves and currents was obtained using wave rider buoy and current meter moored at 2.5 km off Gopalpur from 19 May to 23 August 2008 representing southwest monsoon months. A Valeport tide gauge was used to record water level at Gopalpur port. Simultaneously, beach profiles at 4 transects were monitored using real-time kinematic (RTK) global positioning system (GPS). A total of 636,167 waves were analyzed for the period; a range of 3,200–9,700 waves approach the coast in an individual day. During the study, unusual characteristics of wave were observed on July 29, 2008, with a magnitude of significant wave height, H_s = 2.85 m, maximum wave height, H_max = 5.22 m, and peak wave period, T_p = 10.2 s, and on August 11, 2008, with H_s = 2.28 m, H_max = 5.37 m, and T_p = 11.1 s. Significant beach loss was noticed during these periods, and severe erosion was recorded on August 1, 2008. Beach profile data indicates that 18–58 cu. m/m sediment was lost during the study period. The paper provides an overview of the statistical analysis of wave heights, periods, direction, and spectral energy density and explains the cause of coastal erosion and loss of sediment.     

Adapting to climate change: a comparison of two strategies for dike heightening

In the Netherlands the current dike design policy is to design flood defence structures corresponding to an agreed flooding probability with an extra safety board of at least 0.5 m. For river dikes a return period of 1,250 years is used to determine the design water levels. A problem with this strategy is that it builds on assumptions with regard to the intrinsically uncertain probability distributions for the peak discharges. The uncertainty is considerable and due to (1) the measuring records that are limited to about 100 years and (2) the changing natural variability as a result of climate change. Although the probability distributions are regularly updated based on new discharge data the nature of the statistics is such that a change in the natural variability of the peak discharge affects the probability distribution only long after the actual change has happened. Here we compare the performance of the probabilistic dike design strategy with the older strategy, referred to as the ‘self-learning dike’. The basic principle of the latter strategy is that the dike height is kept at a level equal to the highest recorded water level plus a certain safety margin. The two flood prevention strategies are compared on the basis of the flooding safety over a 100-year period. The Rhine gauge station at Lobith serves as case study. The results indicate that the self-learning dike performs better than the probabilistic design in terms of safety and costs, both under current and climate change conditions.     

Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.     

Significance of nearshore wave parameters in identifying vulnerable zones during storm and normal conditions along Visakhapatnam coast,India

The nearshore parameters, viz., wave runup, wave setup, and wave energy have been estimated during storm and normal conditions of SW monsoon (June–September) and NE monsoon (November–February) by empirical parameterization along Visakhapatnam coast. These results were compared with the field observations during three storms of SW monsoon season in the year 2007. The higher nearshore wave energies were observed at R.K. Beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar beach during both the seasons. During storm events, the higher wave energies associated with higher wave runups cause severe erosion along the wave convergence zones. The storm wave runups (SWRUs) were higher at R.K. Beach, Palm beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar Beach. The yearly low wave energy was observed at Lawson’s Bay with lowest wave runup, considered as safest zone. R.K. Beach, Palm beach, and Jodugullapalem beach are identified as vulnerable zones of wave attack. It is noteworthy that in addition to wave energies, wave runups and wave setups also play a vital role in endangering the coast.     

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M _w 4.0–7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M _w 6.5 are about 6–7 years, 9–10 years, 59–78 years, 72–115 years and 88–127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.     

Wave Climatology in Coastal Maine for Aquaculture and Other Applications

Wind waves represent a significant hydrodynamic factor affecting many oceanographic studies such as sediment transport, design of structures, etc. In coastal Maine, wave information is needed, among other applications, for aquaculture-related activities. As few data sources exist, a question that confronts scientists pertains to the magnitudes of typical and extreme wave conditions at various times. To address this, numerical modeling was performed for a period of six and a half years (7/99–12/05) on a continuous basis by coupling National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outer ocean predictions to two coastal, high-resolution, regional domain grids encompassing the Penobscot Bay and Machias Bay regions where aquaculture activity is prevalent and expanding. As the modeling involves uncertainties because of bathymetric and wind field representations, their effect on the results was explored. It was found that although the uncertainties could create inaccuracies in real-time forecasts, their effect on the development of climatogies was minimal. Average modeled significant wave heights are found to vary between 0.6 and 1.5 m in the sub-domains. The maximum conditions are of the order of 6.5 m in the outer parts of the sub-domains and occurred in September and December. Estimated wave-induced bottom velocities were found in many areas to be in excess of the published estimates of resuspension thresholds for net-pen wastes. Estimates of “extreme” wave conditions, corresponding to a recurrence interval of 30 years (representing the nominal design life of the cage), were found to vary between 2 and 7 m in the modeled areas. Detailed contour maps have been developed for site-specific characterization of the wave climate.     

Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel) and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa, Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam) in the north Indian Ocean. The wind dataset for Goa is compared with that from ERA-40 data. For higher wind speeds (12–20m s⁻¹), NCEP wind speed has higher percentage of occurrence than that of ERA-40. Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with an increase of 1.2 cm s⁻¹ per year and a decreasing trend of −1.3 cm s⁻¹ per year in the case of Goa. The Weibull distribution with shape parameter 2 fits the annual maximum wind data better than FT-1 distribution.     

Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations

Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data set, which was prepared in our earlier work. The meteorological forcing for the model was obtained from the cyclone model of Holland using the data available for 136 low-pressure systems that occurred during 1974–2000 in the Bay of Bengal. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event. The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted with Gumbel distribution using r-largest annual maxima method to estimate the 5- and 50-year return periods of extreme events at 26 stations along the east coast of India. The return periods estimated from simulated sea levels showed good agreement with those obtained from observations. The 5- and 50-year return levels of total sea level along the east coast of India show a considerable increase from south to north, with the 50-year return total sea levels being as high as 6.9 and 8.7 m at stations along the north eastern coast such as Sagar Island and Chandipur, respectively. The high return levels are expected at these stations as the cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal generally move north or north-west, producing extreme events in the northern part, and moreover, these stations are characterized by high tidal ranges. However, at some regions in the southern part such as Surya Lanka and Machilipatnam, though 50-year return levels of total sea level are not very high (2.98 and 2.97 m, respectively) because of the relatively lower tidal ranges, high return levels of surges (0.84 and 0.57 m, respectively) are found. In addition to the role of shallow depths (5.0 and 6.1 m, respectively) at the two stations, the high return levels of surges are attributed to the effect of geometrical configuration at Surya Lanka and width (100 km) and orientation of continental shelf at Machilipatnam.     

Post-earthquake changes and prediction of debris flow scales in Subao River Valley,Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China

Subao River lies along the Beichuan–Yingxiu fault in Beichuan County, which has been heavily impacted by the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 and has become sources of many geo-hazards. On 24 September 2008, a rainstorm triggered a large debris flow in the catchment, causing several deaths and significant damages. A case study on changes of the debris flow was conducted in the river. The peak discharges were calculated in the Guanmenzi, Huangnidi, and Daanshan gullies. Results indicated that the peak discharges corresponded to various return periods in different gullies: 200 years in Daanshan, 100 years in Huangnidi, and 50 years in Guanmenzi. However, the triggering precipitation in these three gullies was only of a 20-year return period. The debris flows had undergone significant changes. Analysis indicated that the changes should be ascribed to the flow characteristics, initiation conditions, and the channel blockage impacted by the rapid accumulation of loose material. Channel blockage was the principal factor increasing the scale of the debris flow. The values on the blocking coefficient were presented based on density, height, and other characteristics of dams. Finally, all of the peak debris flow discharges of the Subao River Valley for a 20-year return period were calculated using the recommended blocking coefficient values.     

Application of wave transformation models for estimation of morphological changes at Vellar estuary,southeast coast of India

Assessment of the wave climate at near coast is vital for estimation of morphological changes, such as growth of sand spit and associated siltation of tidal inlets. Vellar (bar-built) estuary is one of the prominent estuaries along the southeast coast of India, located at 11°30′N and 79°46′E, less studied in terms of its morphological features. The inlet of Vellar is exposed to high energetic waves, inducing large sediment transport rates and shoreline changes. Local wave characteristics are not accurately defined and the available wave information at near coast is limited (point based observations). In the present study, three decoupled numerical models are employed to derive the monthly nearshore wave climate at Vellar by transforming waves from deep water to nearshore. These models are independently validated with buoy observations in deep water and wave gauge data at nearshore. Based on the nearshore wave data, littoral drift along the coast was estimated and compared with the spit growth at Vellar inlet. The estimated average littoral drift along this coast from February to October is 1.93 × 10⁶ m³ toward north and from November to January it is 1.52 × 10⁶ m³ toward south, resulting in a net northerly drift. Results indicated that increase in the wave energy during the period of July to September is responsible for the maximum growth of the sand spit observed in the field.     

Seasonal changes and morphodynamic behavior of a high-energy mesotidal beach: case study of Charf el Akab beach on the North Atlantic coast of Morocco

The morphodynamic behavior of a mesotidal sandy beach was monitored during both calm and energetic conditions. Two years of seasonal surveys were carried out on Charf el Akab, a gently sloped beach in the North Atlantic coast of Morocco. The method of survey consisted of a 3D study of the beach morphological changes and provided 2 cm vertical accuracy. During the surveyed period, Charf el Akab beach underwent very energetic wave conditions, and the breaking wave height was of H _b ≥ 1.5 m. The beach is characterized by a nonpermanent swash bar and composed of well-sorted medium sand. The application of environmental parameters revealed a dissipative state with very low beach gradient which did not vary significantly over the studied period. Morphological changes consist of beach erosion and bar decay under high-energy waves, whereas the intertidal bar re-established and the beach recorded an accentuated accretion due to relatively fair weather conditions. The beach volume reveals a seasonal behavior; the sand accumulated during summer is dramatically removed during winter season. The range in beach sand volume from the most accreted to the most eroded conditions observed is about −5,493 m³. The average sand volume flux between surveys reaches −1 and 0.4 m²/day during peak erosion and accretion periods. The relationships between the wave forcing and the sand volume adjustments were examined. The sand volume change was found to be highly correlated (0.91) with the wave energy flux. The highest correspondence (0.95) was found between the sand flux rate and the wave energy flux. The wave forcing is expected to be the main factor governing beach morphodynamics at Charf el Akab site.     

Alternative data-driven methods to estimate wind from waves by inverse modeling

An attempt is made to derive wind speed from wave measurements by carrying out an inverse modeling. This requirement arises out of difficulties occasionally encountered in collecting wave and wind data simultaneously. The wind speed at every 3-h interval is worked out from corresponding simultaneous measurements of significant wave height and average wave periods with the help of alternative data-driven methods such as program-based genetic programming, model trees, and locally weighted projection regression. Five different wave buoy locations in Arabian Sea, representing nearshore and offshore as well as shallow and deep water conditions, are considered. The duration of observations ranged from 15 months to 29 months for different sites. The testing performance of calibrated models has been evaluated with the help of eight alternative error statistics, and the best model for all locations is determined by averaging out the error measures into a single evaluation index. All the three methods satisfactorily estimated the wind speed from known wave parameters through inverse modeling. The genetic programming is found to be the most suitable tool in majority of the cases.     

Wave Attenuation at a Salt Marsh Margin: A Case Study of an Exposed Coast on the Yangtze Estuary

To quantify wave attenuation by (introduced) Spartina alterniflora vegetation at an exposed macrotidal coast in the Yangtze Estuary, China, wave parameters and water depth were measured during 13 consecutive tides at nine locations ranging from 10 m seaward to 50 m landward of the low marsh edge. During this period, the incident wave height ranged from <0.1 to 1.5 m, the maximum of which is much higher than observed in other marsh areas around the world. Our measurements and calculations showed that the wave attenuation rate per unit distance was 1 to 2 magnitudes higher over the marsh than over an adjacent mudflat. Although the elevation gradient of the marsh margin was significantly higher than that of the adjacent mudflat, more than 80% of wave attenuation was ascribed to the presence of vegetation, suggesting that shoaling effects were of minor importance. On average, waves reaching the marsh were eliminated over a distance of ∼80 m, although a marsh distance of ≥100 m was needed before the maximum height waves were fully attenuated during high tides. These attenuation distances were longer than those previously found in American salt marshes, mainly due to the macrotidal and exposed conditions at the present site. The ratio of water depth to plant height showed an inverse correlation with wave attenuation rate, indicating that plant height is a crucial factor determining the efficiency of wave attenuation. Consequently, the tall shoots of the introduced S. alterniflora makes this species much more efficient at attenuating waves than the shorter, native pioneer species in the Yangtze Estuary, and should therefore be considered as a factor in coastal management during the present era of sea-level rise and global change. We also found that wave attenuation across the salt marsh can be predicted using published models when a suitable coefficient is incorporated to account for drag, which varies in place and time due to differences in plant characteristics and abiotic conditions (i.e., bed gradient, initial water depth, and wave action).     

Physico—Mechanical Property Changes Associated with mineral Phase Transition in Granite

Variations in elastic wave velocity, low-frequency internal friction and acous-tic emission in granite were experimentally studied as a function of temperature.It is found that the wave velocity and Young‘s modulus tend to decrease with temperature.In association with the α-β transition of quartz a sharp internal friction peak can be recognized accompanied by a drastic drop in wave velocity and modulus and by a second peak of acoustic emission rate.