Mechanism of activation of the Lanta Khola landslide in Sikkim Himalayas

The Lanta Khola is a major landslide on the North Sikkim Highway in the Indian state of Sikkim. The abnormally low width-to-length ratio and slope instability in spite of the gentle surface slope (24°) make this slide unique. Geological, geophysical, and geotechnical studies reveal that a major Himalayan discontinuity daylights within the slide. At the contact, the schist is weathered to fine sand and silt with lower shear strength and permeability. The overlying gneiss is less weathered and exposed at the contact. Surface runoff enters the contact zone through crevices in the overlying gneiss, and debris material is extruded laterally from within this zone rendering instability, with blocks collapsing and eventually rolling down the slope after cloud bursts. Numerical modeling of the slide confirms this mechanism of instability. Diversion of runoff, plugging of crevices, and construction of pipe piles and horizontal drains are suggested as remedial measures.     

Integrated very low-frequency EM, electrical resistivity, and geological studies on the Lanta Khola landslide, North Sikkim, India

Landslides are very common in high-altitude Himalayan terrains. Major roads in the Himalayas are frequently blocked due to heavy landslides and remain closed for long periods of time. Permanent mitigatory solutions to these landslides are required to keep the highways open. Lanta Khola, located 71.2 km north of Gangtok (capital of the Indian state of Sikkim), is one of the oldest landslides on the North Sikkim Highway and is active since 1975. The rock types on either side of the landslide are different (augen gneiss in the east and metapelitic schist in the west), and it is believed that the Main Central Thrust passes through the slide zone. Since the slide is invariably activated in the aftermath of heavy rainfall, it is important to identify the subsurface structures that channel water below the landslide surface in order to understand the triggers of slide activity. This can only be accomplished by geophysical survey; however, an appropriate geophysical technique that can be applied in such terrains must be identified. Very low-frequency (VLF) electromagnetic survey was performed over the Lanta Khola landside in order to delineate subsurface structures. Although a very limited number of VLF transmitters are available worldwide, it was possible to pick up VLF signals from a number of VLF stations even in this high-altitude mountainous terrain. VLF measurements along five profiles perpendicular to the geological strike were recorded, and a high conducting zone was delineated from the VLF observations. This conducting zone correlates with the low resistive zone identified from gradient resistivity profiling. The anomalies confirm that there is a water-saturated zone (soggy zone) even in the subsurface of the slide parallel to the geological gneiss–schist contact within the Lanta Khola slide. This indicates that the conductive feature correlates with a weak water-saturated debris layer that lies along the slide and is parallel to the geological contact. Resistive structures on either side of the landslide zone can thus be correlated with the stable ground. It is necessary to drain out water from the soggy zone to minimize slide activity since this zone appears to penetrate into the body of the slide.     

Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.     

Hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide initiation and forest operation shutdowns on the north coast of British Columbia

Debris flows and debris avalanches are the most widespread and hazardous types of landslides on the British Columbia north coast. Triggered by heavy rain, they pose risks to forestry workers in sparsely developed regions. The scarcity of long-term quality rain gauges and the lack of weather radar information create significant challenge in predicting the timing of landslides, which could be used to warn and, when necessary, evacuate forestry personnel. Traditional methods to relate rainfall antecedents and rainfall intensity to known landslide dates have proven to be unsatisfactory in this study due to extreme spatial variability of rainfall, enhanced by the orographic effect and the scarcity of rain gauges in a very large area. This has led to an integration of meteorological variables in a landslide advisory system that classifies three types of approaching storms by the 850-mbar wind speed and direction, the occurrence of subtropical moisture flow, and the existence of a warm layer characterized by high thickness values of the 500- to 1,000-mbar pressure levels. The storm classification was combined with a 4-week antecedent rainfall and the 24-h rainfall measured near or in the watershed where logging operations are taking place. This system, once implemented, is thought to reduce loss of life, injury, and economic losses associated with forestry works in the study area.     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Transient seepage in unsaturated soil slope is one of the significant triggering factors in rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall infiltration leads to the decrease in stabilizing effect because of increased positive pore-water pressures. SEEP/W and SLOPE/W used in this study have been widely employed to describe frameworks for understanding transient seepage in soil slope, and to perform slope stability analyses, respectively. The study area is in Sichon District in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, southern Thailand. A landslide there was investigated by modeling the process of rainfall infiltration under positive and negative pore-water pressures and their effects on slope stability. GIS (Geographic Information System) and geotechnical laboratory results were used as input parameters. The van Genuchten’s soil water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function were used to estimate surface infiltration rates. An average rainfall was derived from 30-year monthly rainfall data between 1981 and 2011 in this area reported by the Thailand Royal Irrigation Department. For transient condition, finite element analysis in SEEP/W was employed to model fluctuations in pore-water pressure during a rainfall, using the computed water infiltration rates as surface boundary conditions. SLOPE/W employing Bishop simplified method was then carried out to compute their factors of safety, and antecedent precipitation indices (API) calculated. Heterogeneous slope at the site became unstable at an average critical API (API_cr) of 380 mm, agreeing well with the actual value of 388 mm.     

Rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area,southwestern China

The Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area is frequently hit by heavy rainfall, which often triggers sediment-related disasters, such as shallow landslides, debris flows, and related natural events, sometimes causing tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence is very important in order to improve forecasting and for risk management. In the context of the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, however, the rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows are not well understood. With the aim of defining the critical rainfall thresholds for this area, a detailed analysis of the main rainstorm events was carried out. This paper presents 11 rainfall events that induced debris flows which occurred between 2008 and 2012 after the Wenchuan earthquake. The rainfall thresholds were defined in terms of mean rainfall intensity I, rainfall duration D, and normalized using the mean annual precipitation (MAP). An ID threshold and a normalized I _MAP D threshold graph could be set up for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area which forms the lower boundary of the domain with debris flow-triggering rainfall events. The rainfall threshold curves obtained for the study area were compared with the local, regional, and global curves proposed by various authors. The results suggest that debris flow initiation in the study area almost requires a higher amount of rainfall and greater intensity than elsewhere. The comparison of rainfall intensity prior to and after the earthquake clearly indicates that the critical rainfall intensity necessary to trigger debris flows decreased after the earthquake. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized, so that they can be used in debris flow warning systems in areas with the same geology as the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area.     

Hybrid stochastic-mechanical modeling of precipitation thresholds of shallow landslide initiation

Natural Hazards - International and domestic tourism is a growing industry in Costa Rica, with the most attractive places located along the coast. Despite their beauty, Costa Rican beaches can pose...     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence: systematic underestimation using coarse temporal resolution data

Natural Hazards - Rainfall thresholds for landslides occurrence derived in real applications tend to be lower than the ones one would obtain using exact data. This letter shows how the use of...     

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall

This study was conducted to determine the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (ID curves) for landslide prediction by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall. Data for the time and location of landslides that occurred in South Korea from 1999 to 2016 were collected. Overall, 231 landslide histories from 1999 to 2013 were used to determine the rainfall thresholds, and 12 landslide histories from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the proposed rainfall thresholds. Probabilistic ID curves were proposed to reflect the influence of other factors except rainfall, and ID curves for various inter-event time definitions (IETDs) were suggested to analyze the variation in the ID curves with the effects of antecedent rainfall. The results suggest that the IETD indicates the duration for which the antecedent rainfall affects the ground condition. It was also found that the ID curve for 12 h of the IETD was the most reliable of the verification procedures using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot and threat score (TS).     

Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region,Garhwal Himalayas,India

Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ^?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.     

Applying deep learning and benchmark machine learning algorithms for landslide susceptibility modelling in Rorachu river basin of Sikkim Himalaya,India

Landslide is considered as one of the most severe threats to human life and property in the hilly areas of the world. The number of landslides and the level of damage across the globe has been increasing over time. Therefore, landslide management is essential to maintain the natural and socio-economic dynamics of the hilly region. Rorachu river basin is one of the most landslide-prone areas of the Sikkim selected for the present study. The prime goal of the study is to prepare landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs) using computer-based advanced machine learning techniques and compare the performance of the models.To properly understand the existing spatial relation with the landslide, twenty factors, including triggering and causative factors, were selected. A deep learning algorithm viz. convolutional neural network model(CNN) and three popular machine learning techniques, i.e., random forest model(RF), artificial neural network model(ANN), and bagging model, were employed to prepare the LSMs. Two separate datasets including training and validation were designed by randomly taken landslide and nonlandslide points. A ratio of 70:30 was considered for the selection of both training and validation points.Multicollinearity was assessed by tolerance and variance inflation factor, and the role of individual conditioning factors was estimated using information gain ratio. The result reveals that there is no severe multicollinearity among the landslide conditioning factors, and the triggering factor rainfall appeared as the leading cause of the landslide. Based on the final prediction values of each model, LSM was constructed and successfully portioned into five distinct classes, like very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The susceptibility class-wise distribution of landslides shows that more than 90% of the landslide area falls under higher landslide susceptibility grades. The precision of models was examined using the area under the curve(AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve and statistical methods like root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE). In both datasets(training and validation), the CNN model achieved the maximum AUC value of 0.903 and 0.939, respectively. The lowest value of RMSE and MAE also reveals the better performance of the CNN model. So, it can be concluded that all the models have performed well, but the CNN model has outperformed the other models in terms of precision.     

浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系

由于独特的地理位置,复杂的地质、地形和气候背景,浙江成为中国降雨型滑坡（土体和岩体滑动,也包括泥石流和崩塌等）最频发的地区之一。为评价浙江地区的滑坡灾害,本文对该地区1990年至2003年雨量站记录的降雨数据进行了详细分析,确定了引发土体滑坡-泥石流的降雨强度―历时下限。     

Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia

In Slovenia, rainfall-induced landslides lead to considerable damages, even causing human losses. In order to reduce the impact of this kind of landslide, several researchers analyzed rainfall-induced landslides in this country, but to date, no rainfall thresholds have been developed for a landslide warning system at national scale. In this paper, the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges. To define the thresholds, an existing procedure characterized by a high degree of objectiveness has been used. This approach is based on a software that was developed for a test site with very different characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). At first, a single national threshold has been defined; subsequently, the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of the major river basins. The effectiveness of the thresholds has been verified by the use of several statistical parameters and it resulted in quite good performances, even if with some uncertainties, probably due to the quality of the available data. Besides the setting of a threshold system, usable for civil protection purposes at national scale, an additional outcome of this work was the possibility of applying, with good results, a methodology defined for another region, therefore testing its degree of exportability in different settings.     

Rainfall thresholds for the possible landslide occurrence in Sicily (Southern Italy) based on the automatic reconstruction of rainfall events

Review of the literature on the reconstruction of the rainfall responsible for slope failures reveals that criteria for the identification of rainfall events are lacking or somewhat subjective. To overcome this problem, we developed an algorithm for the objective and reproducible reconstruction of rainfall events and of rainfall conditions responsible for landslides. The algorithm consists of three distinct modules for (i) the reconstruction of distinct rainfall events, in terms of duration (D, in h) and cumulated event rainfall (E, in mm), (ii) the identification of multiple ED rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides, and (iii) the definition of critical rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrences. The algorithm uses pre-defined parameters to account for different seasonal and climatic settings. We applied the algorithm in Sicily, southern Italy, using rainfall measurements obtained from a network of 169 rain gauges, and information on 229 rainfall-induced landslides occurred between July 2002 and December 2012. The algorithm identified 29,270 rainfall events and reconstructed 472 ED rainfall conditions as possible triggers of the observed landslides. The algorithm exploited the multiple rainfall conditions to define objective and reproducible empirical rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslide in Sicily. The calculated thresholds may be implemented in an operational early warning system for shallow landslide forecasting.     

Environmental economics of the Khangchendzonga National Park in the Sikkim Himalaya, India

A contingent valuation survey was conducted involving local community members, domestic and foreign visitors to estimate the environmental economics of the Khangchendzonga National Park and to elicit their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for its maintenance and conservation. Using a random survey, the average WTP was US$ 8.84 for foreign visitors per visit, followed by US$ 6.20 per household per year by local community members and US$ 1.91 per domestic visitor per visit for improvement in environmental conservation. The WTP was strongly influenced by age, education and income. The present study demonstrated that the contingent valuation method (CVM) is a promising approach, however it lacks inclusion of non-monetary contributions. The WTP for environmental management by the local communities was mostly in kind or time for services. The CVM can be a useful tool for decision-makers regarding investment and policy purposes for management of biodiversity hot spots and protected areas in developing countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Deformation mechanisms in the frontal Lesser Himalayan Duplex in Sikkim Himalaya,India

Understanding deformation mechanisms in Himalayan rocks is a challenging proposition due to the complex nature of the deformed rocks and their genesis. Crustal deformation in the Himalayan thrust belt typically occurs in elastico-frictional (EF) or quasi-plastic (QP) regimes at depths controlled mainly by regional strain-rate and geothermal gradient. However, material property, grain-size and their progressive changes during deformation are also important controlling factors. We present evidence of EF deformation from Gondwana rocks developed during the emplacement of one of the frontal horses (Jorthang horse) in the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (LHD) structure associated with Lesser Himalayan rocks in the footwall of the Ramgarh thrust in the Rangit window near Jorthang in the Sikkim Himalaya. The rocks in the horse exhibit systematic changes in microand meso-structures from an undeformed protolith to cataclasite suggesting that it was emplaced under elastico-frictional conditions. Meso- to micro-scale shear fractures are seen developed in Gondwana sandstone and slate while intercalated fine-grained shale-coal-carbonates are deformed by cataclastic flow suggesting that material property and grain-size have played an important role in the deformation of the Jorthang horse. In contrast, the hanging wall schists and quartzites of the Ramgarh thrust exhibit quasi-plastic deformation structures. This suggests that the Jorthang horse was emplaced under shallower crustal conditions than the antiformally folded Ramgarh thrust sheet even though the Ramgarh sheet presently overlies the Jorthang horse.     

Rainfall flood hazard at nuclear power plants in India

Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded.     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值

搜集了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨数据,采用詹氏法和修正法两种雨场分割法对其进行处理,研究了降雨参数（降雨强度、累积雨量和降雨历时）与泥石流发生之间的关系,建立了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值模型。结果表明:采用詹氏法和修正法这两种雨场分割方法所获得的降雨参数之间存在差异。两者的累积雨量差异不大,但后者的平均雨强要小于前者,其原因在于修正法改善了詹氏法估计降雨时间过短的缺点,延长了降雨历时。通过分析平均雨强~历时、累积雨量~历时、标准化平均雨强~历时和标准化累积雨量~历时之间的关系,采用单线法建立了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值。研究成果在四川省绵竹市清平乡的泥石流灾害事件中进行了应用与验证,结果表明该方法具有合理性和可行性。     

Hydropower development and the meaning of place. Multi-ethnic hydropower struggles in Sikkim,India

Academic research and media tend to emphasize the strong opposition to hydropower development in Sikkim, India, and position this as resistance to an environmentally-destructive, trans-local development, particularly by the culturally-rooted, ethnic minority Bhutia and Lepcha communities. There are several accounts of contestations of hydropower development projects in India’s Eastern Himalayan States – signifying robust and predictable indigenous people-place connections. Why then, was the implementation of the largest, Teesta Stage III Hydro Electric Project, located in Chungthang Gram Panchayat Unit in North Sikkim, in the heartland of the Bhutia-Lepcha region, not contested? In unraveling this anomaly, our focus is to understand how people-place connections are shaped and differentially experienced. Our findings are that hydropower development has elicited diverse responses locally, ranging from fierce contestation to indifference, to enthusiastic acceptance. The complexity and malleability of “place” and people’s “sense of place” provide evidence that indigeneity does not always indicate resistance to large-scale project interventions. In ethnically and socio-politically fractured communities like Chungthang, trans-local developments can reinforce ethno-social divides and disparities, and re-align traditional place-based ethno-centric solidarities along new politically-motivated lines. We argue that linear, one-dimensional views of local social coalescence around place belie more complex relations, which evolve dynamically in diverse socio-cultural and politico-economic contexts.