Multi-scenario flash flood hazard assessment based on rainfall–runoff modeling and flood inundation modeling: a case study

Flash flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters in China. A quantitative flash flood hazard assessment is important for saving human lives and reducing economic losses. In this study, integrated rainfall–runoff modeling (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic modeling (FLO-2D) schemes were used to assess flash flood inundation areas and depths under 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, 500-year and 1000-year rainfall scenarios in a mountainous basin (Hadahe River Basin, HRB) in northern China. The overall flash flood hazard in HRB is high. Under the eight rainfall scenarios, the total flooded area ranged from 6 to 8.73 km²; the flash flood inundation areas with depths of 1–2 m, 2–3 m, and over 3 m was 1.53–2.69 km², 0.63–1.44 km² and 0.33–1.11 km², respectively; and these areas accounted for 25.5–30.8%, 10.5–16.5% and 5.5–12.7% of the whole flooded area. The total flooded area increases rapidly with the return period increasing from 5 to 200 years, and the increase gradient slows when the return period is greater than 200 years. In the downstream area of HRB, the flash flood area with inundation depths greater than 1 m accounted for 54–71% of the flooded area under the eight scenarios. In comparison to other areas in the HRB, the downstream area is at the highest risk given its extensive inundation and substantial property exposure. The quantitative hazard assessment framework presented in this study can be applied in other mountainous basins for flash flood defense and disaster management purposes.

     

A statistical assessment on international landslide literature (1945–2008)

In the present study, the analysis of the international landslide literature is aimed. The landslide is perhaps one of the most complex natural phenomena. Also, due to landslides, a considerable amount of loss of lives and economic losses is encountered throughout the world. Although a vast amount of landslide papers is published in international journals, a statistical assessment on this literature is not encountered. For this reason, this study is performed. For the assessment of the international landslide literature, the Science Citation Index Expanded (WOS; Web of Science) published by Institute of Scientific Information (now Thomson Scientific), USA for the period 1945–2008, is considered. A total of 3,468 publications are found and this data is stored into Oracle XE database and queried by using Structured Query Language and Procedural Language/Structured Query Language. In the following stages, some statistical analyses are performed and the possible trends are discussed.     

The dynamics of vulnerability: some preliminary thoughts about the occurrence of ‘radical surprises’ and a case study on the 2002 flood (Germany)

This paper develops a view of vulnerability attempting to capture a constitutive dimension of most disasters, that is their radically surprising moment. Therefore, it builds a conceptual framework, which captures the moment of surprise itself, as well as, its consequences for people by developing a dynamic and actor-oriented understanding of vulnerability. It begins with an outline about how to observe and explain vulnerability by offering a brief overview of how the discussion on vulnerability has evolved over the last 30 years or so. In a second step, the interrelation of knowledge, ignorance and vulnerability is specified. Therefore, a basic understanding of surprises is developed, which is then further distinguished in everyday surprises and ‘radical surprises’. The theoretical argument is substantiated by a case study on a city in Germany, which was severely affected by the 2002 August flood. The paper concludes with some more general implications for the discussion on the interrelation of local knowledge, the dynamics of vulnerability and the occurrence of ‘radical surprises’.     

Impact of wildfire in Russia between 1998–2010 on ecosystems and the global carbon budget

Verified estimates of wildfire area and related carbon emissions in territories of Russia are reported for the period of 1998–2010. It is shown that the average burnt area is estimated to be at 8.23 million hectares per year (uncertainty ±9.0%, confidence interval 0.9), and carbon emissions—121 Tg C yr⁻¹ (±23%), with a significant interannual variability of these indicators. A quantitative characteristic of fire emissions by species is reported. Forests are a source of three quarters of all carbon emissions caused by wildfires. A significant acceleration of fire regimes is expected during the 21st century as a result of climate change in the country.     

Mineralogical and chemical evolution of tantalum–(niobium–tin) mineralisation in pegmatites and granites. Part 2: Worldwide examples (excluding Africa) and an overview of global metallogenetic patterns

Columbite-group minerals (CGM) account for the majority of the production of tantalum, an important metal for high-technology applications. Along with other Ta–Nb oxides such as tapiolite, wodginite, ixiolite and pyrochlore supergroup minerals, CGM are recovered from rare-metal granites and granitic rare-element pegmatites. In this paper mineralogical and geochemical data with a focus on CGM, tapiolite, wodginite and ixiolite are presented for rare-element granites and pegmatites from worldwide occurrences except Africa that has been covered in a previous contribution (Melcher et al., 2015). Major and trace element data of the Ta–Nb oxides are presented and compared for a total of 25 granite/pegmatite provinces, and one carbonatite for comparison. Based on CGM compositions, the data allow to distinguish between various subgroups of Li–Cs–Ta (LCT)-family pegmatites, Nb–Y–F (NYF)-family pegmatites, mixed LCT–NYF pegmatites, and rare-element granites.Each period of Ta-ore formation in Earth history is characterised by peculiar mineralogical and geochemical features. Some of the largest and economically most important rare-element pegmatite bodies are located within Archean terrains and intruded ultramafic and mafic host rocks (e.g., Tanco/Canada, Wodgina and Greenbushes/Western Australia, Kolmozero/Kola). They are highly fractionated, of LCT affinity throughout and yield complex mineralogical compositions. The variety of minor and trace elements incorporated attests to a rather insignificant role of the immediate host rocks to their geochemical signature and rather points to the significance of the composition of the underlying crustal protoliths, internal fractionation and the processes of melt generation. Many of the Archean pegmatites carry significant Li mineralization as spodumene, petalite, and amblygonite, and all of them are also characterised by elevated Li in CGM. In addition, Sb and Bi are important trace elements, also reflected by the occasional presence of stibiotantalite and bismutotantalite. REE_N patterns of CGM are dominated by the MREE or HREE, and range from very low to high total REE concentrations. Negative Eu anomalies are omnipresent. Scandium contents are also highly variable, from very high (Tanco) to very low concentrations (Wodgina, Kolmozero).A second period of worldwide pegmatite formation was in the Paleoproterozoic. All CGM analysed derive from LCT-family pegmatites except samples from the Amazonas region where Ta is mined from rare-metal granites at Pitinga. Pegmatites intruded highly variable lithologies including metasediments, metabasites, gneiss, granite and quartzite within a variety of structural and paleogeographic settings; however, most of them are syn- to post-orogenic with respect to major Paleoproterozoic orogenic events. Minor and trace element signatures are similar to CGM from Archean pegmatites. Some are characterised by considerable REE enrichment (São João del Rei/Brazil; Amapá/Brazil; Finnish Lapland/Finland), whereas others have normal to low total REE concentrations (Black Hills/USA, Bastar/India). Examples with high REE commonly are enriched in Sc and Y as well, and are often transitional to NYF-family pegmatites.The Mesoproterozoic period is comparatively poor in rare-element pegmatites and rare-metal granites. Mineralogical and chemical attributes of ixiolite–wodginite, tapiolite, CGM and rutile from placer material in Colombia point to an unusual pegmatite source of NYF affinity, yielding high total REE, Sc and Th at low Li and Bi. REE patterns have typical negative Eu and Y anomalies.A third major period of pegmatite formation was the Early Neoproterozoic at around 1 Ga, documented in the Grenvillian (North America), the Sveconorwegian (northern Europe) and the Kibaran in central Africa. CGM are present in numerous, mostly small pegmatites, although larger examples also occur (e.g., Manono in the D.R. Congo; Melcher et al., 2015). Pegmatite fields often display a zonal arrangement of mineralised pegmatites with respect to assumed “fertile” parent granites. They intrude metasediments, metabasites, gneiss and granite of middle to upper crustal levels and display a variety of mineralogical and chemical characteristics. Pegmatites of the Sveconorwegian and Grenville domains are usually of the NYF type and CGM are characterised by elevated Y, REE, Th and Sc. In contrast, the pegmatites of central (Kibara Belt) and southwestern Africa (Orange River Belt) are commonly of LCT affinity carrying spodumene, beryl and cassiterite (Melcher et al., 2015). These CGM have elevated conce ntrations of Li, Mg, Sn and Hf. Total REE concentrations are low except for the Sveconorwegian, and exhibit a variety of shapes in normalised diagrams.The fourth major pegmatite-forming event coincides with amalgamation of Gondwana at the Neoproterozoic/Paleozoic boundary around 550 Ma ago. This event is omnipresent in Africa (“Panafrican”) and South America (“Brasiliano event” documented in the Eastern Brazilian pegmatite and Borborema provinces). Pegmatites often intruded high-grade metamorphic terrains composed of metasediments including schist, marble, quartzite, as well as gneiss, amphibolite, ultramafic rocks, and granite. Within the Neoproterozoic, rare-metal granites of NYF affinity are locally abundant. Pegmatites show both LCT and NYF affinities, and mixed types occur in Mozambique. The Alto Ligonha and Madagascar provinces are characterised by abundant REE and Sc both within Ta–Nb-oxides and as separate mineral phases. Notably, some pegmatite provinces are almost devoid of cassiterite, whereas others carry cassiterite in economic amounts.In the Phanerozoic (younger than 542 Ma), pegmatites formed at all times in response to orogenetic processes involving various continents and terranes during the long-time amalgamation of Pangea and the Alpine orogenies. Whereas some activity is related to the Pampean, Acadian and Caledonian orogenies, the Variscan/Hercynian and Alleghanian orogenies are of utmost importance as manifested in pegmatite formation associated with Sn–W mineralised granites in central and western Europe as well as in the Appalachians. Most of the Variscan and Alleghanian pegmatites are of LCT affinity, although NYF and some mixed types have been described as well. Variscan pegmatite formation culminated at ca. 330 to 300 Ma, whereas Alleghanian pegmatites range in age from about 390 Ma to about 240 Ma. Most are syn- to post-orogenic and were emplaced at different crustal levels and into a variety of host rocks. Degree of fractionation as well as minor and trace element geochemistry of Ta–Nb oxides are rather variable and cover the complete field of CGM compositions. REE patterns are characterised by prominent negative Eu anomalies.Some Mesozoic and Cenozoic pegmatites and rare-metal granites from Southeast Asia and the Russian Far East are included in the compilation. Rare-metal granites of the Jos Plateau (Nigeria) were previously investigated (Melcher et al., 2015). The proportion of NYF pegmatites and rare-metal granites in the Mesozoic is striking, i.e. illustrated by Jos, Orlovka, Ulug Tanzek as well as the southeast Asian deposits related to tin granites. CGM from these areas are invariably rich in REE, Sc, Y and Th. In all rare-metal granites, Ta–Nb oxides are characterised by high total REE concentrations and both, negative Eu and Y anomalies in chondrite-normalised REE diagrams.Although constituting a vastly different magmatic system compared to rare metal pegmatites and granites, we included the Upper Fir carbonatite from the Canadian Cordillera, for comparison, because it is characterised by unusal high Ta contents. As expected, the CGM differ from the pegmatitic CGM by having high Mg and Th, and low U concentrations in columbite-(Fe) and lack an Eu anomaly. However, they also show similarities to primitive CGM from rare metal pegmatites of the NYF family in terms of the REE pattern and the increase in #Ta and #Mn towards the margins of the CGM. Our findings support recent results presented in Chudy (2014) indicating that the Ta enrichment in some carbonatites might be attributed to magmatic processes and conditions that are similar to the pegmatitic systems.     

The flood and landslide event of November 4–6 1994 in Piedmont Region (Northwestern Italy): Causes and related effects in Tanaro Valley

During the first week of November 1994, the persistence of a wide depression over North-West Europe caused heavy rains on a large part of Piedmont region Precipitations of about 200 mm/day at various rain gauges were recorded. In different Piedmontese areas 92 pluviometric stations, with long-term series (60–80 years), recorded values which were over the previous maxima: in 18 cases for 1 day and in 20 cases for 2 days in succession. The Tanaro Valley (area of 8500 km²), located in southern Piedmont, was the basin mostly affected by these extreme rainfalls. Particularly on November 4 and 5, over 200 mm of rain were recorded in the upper and middle part of the valley and in the upper portions of its tributaries: the Belbo, Bormida and Orba rivers. Precipitations reached a maximum hourly intensity of 55 mm, with maximum cumulative value of 264.4 mm over 24 hours. Rainfalls produced exceptional discharges of the rivers characterized by peaks never recorded before (unit discharge 0.6–7.3 m³s⁻¹ km²). Along the rivers large floods caused widespread damage to 38 urbanized areas. The effect was catastrophical: 44 victims, 2000 homeless, over 10 billion US $ of damage in all. If we consider the event on the whole, we must go back to 1879, May 26–27, to find a comparable case in the Tanaro Valley: therefore we can consider the 1994 event on a secular scale.     

Percival Allen FRS (1917–2008): a personal tribute

This paper summarises the author's research association with Percival (‘Perce’) Allen FRS (1917–2008), whose wide-ranging and seminal contributions to Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous) sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental interpretation spanned seven decades. The Geological Conservation Review (GCR) Special Issue on the Wealden was initiated as a collaborative research programme initiated during the late 1990s. Stemming from this, the GCR accounts are seen very much as the summation of Perce Allen's lifelong Wealden studies, as demonstrated by GCR sites throughout southern England.     

Molybdenum mineralization at Alpeiner Scharte, Tyrol (Austria): results of in-situ U–Pb zircon and Re–Os molybdenite dating

Summary Vein-type Mo mineralization at Alpeiner Scharte occurs in the Penninic units of the western Tauern Window in the Eastern Alps. Three types of previously undated metagranitoids (central gneisses) are distinguished and preserve intrusive contacts with pre-Alpine metamorphosed supracrustal rocks. The granitic protoliths represent fractionated late to post-orogenic, calc-alkaline, I-type magmas with minor S-type components. The Mo veins are restricted to a biotite and alkali feldspar-rich gneiss variety and occur in E–W trending normally sub-vertical quartz veins with adjacent thin discontinuous garnet- and biotite-rich zones; the latter are interpreted as metamorphosed vein selvages. Prior to this work the age of the intrusive host rocks as well as the age of Mo mineralization were unknown.The pre-Alpine Mo deposit and its host rocks were affected by four Alpine deformation events (D₁–D₄) and Young-Alpine regional metamorphism. The P-T conditions of this metamorphic event were 550°C and 8kbar and are in agreement with results of previous regional studies.Zircon grains from two orthogneiss samples were dated with the U–Pb method using ion probe techniques. Zircons from the metagranitic host rock of the Mo-veins yielded an emplacement age of 306.8±3.8Ma (2). A second sample from a more leucocratic gneiss lacking Mo-veins gave 305.0±6.6Ma (2). Re–Os dating of molybdenite from the veins yielded an age of 306.8±3.1Ma, in good agreement with the U–Pb zircon ages.This study confirms one of two alternative hypotheses discussed in the literature. It supports the idea that vein-type Mo-mineralization in the western Tauern Window is genetically related to Late Carboniferous (Westphalian) granitoids that were emplaced during the late to post-orogenic stage of the Variscan orogeny. They do not constitute an Alpine metamorphic-hydrothermal deposit. This study further confirms the strength of the Re–Os molybdenite chronometer, in that it was unaffected by subsequent Alpine medium grade regional metamorphism.Present address: Kremstalstraße 32, A-4501 Neuhofen an der Krems, Austria     

Permian–Triassic Climatic and Environmental Extremes and Biotic Response (IGCP 630: 2014–2018): Goals and Achievements

正IGCP 630 and its Structures IGCP 630, with its full title of "Permian–Triassic(P–Tr) climatic and environmental extremes and biotic response", is an International Geoscience Program project sponsored by the United Nation Educational, Scientific Cultural Organization(UNESCO) and International Union of Geological Sciences(IUGS). This project was approved in 2014 and ended in 2018, and has applied for one-year     

Colin Patterson (1933–1998): a major vertebrate palaeontologist of this century

Geologie en Mijnbouw -     

Paleomagnetic data and K–Ar ages from Mesozoic units of the Santa Marta massif: A preliminary interpretation for block rotation and translations

We report 6 K–Ar ages and paleomagnetic data from 28 sites collected in Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous and Paleocene rocks of the Santa Marta massif, to test previous hypothesis of rotations and translations of this massif, whose rock assemblage differs from other basement-cored ranges adjacent to the Guyana margin. Three magnetic components were identified in this study. A first component has a direction parallel to the present magnetic field and was uncovered in all units (D = 352, I = 25.6, k = 57.35, a95 = 5.3, N = 12). A second component was isolated in Cretaceous limestone and Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks (D = 8.8, I = 8.3, k = 24.71, a95 = 13.7, N = 6), and it was interpreted as of Early Cretaceous age. In Jurassic sites with this component, Early Cretaceous K–Ar ages obtained from this and previous studies are interpreted as reset ages. The third component was uncovered in eight sites of Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks, and its direction indicates negative shallow to moderate inclinations and northeastward declinations. K–Ar ages in these sites are of Early (196.5 ± 4.9 Ma) to early Late Jurassic age (156.6 ± 8.9 Ma). Due to local structural complexity and too few Cretaceous outcrops to perform a reliable unconformity test, we only used two sites with (1) K–Ar ages, (2) less structural complexity, and (3) reliable structural data for Jurassic and Cretaceous rocks. The mean direction of the Jurassic component is (D = 20.4, I = −18.2, k = 46.9, a95 = 5.1, n = 18 specimens from two sites). These paleomagnetic data support previous models of northward along-margin translations of Grenvillian-cored massifs. Additionally, clockwise vertical-axis rotation of this massif, with respect to the stable craton, is also documented; the sense of rotation is similar to that proposed for the Perija Range and other ranges of the southern Caribbean margin. More data is needed to confirm the magnitudes of rotations and translations.     

Keivy Paraschists (Archean–Early Proterozoic): Nanobacteria and Life

Nanobacteria, buried in situ, were discovered in the Early Precambrian paraschists (Keivy, Kola Peninsula). It is suggested that occurrence of nanobacteria indicates that a biological factor played a role in the formation of enclosing rocks.     

Exhumation and uplift of the Sierras Pampeanas: preliminary implications from K–Ar fault gouge dating and low-T thermochronology in the Sierra de Comechingones (Argentina)

The Sierras Pampeanas in central and north-western Argentina constitute a distinct morphotectonic feature between 27°S and 33°S. The last stage of uplift and deformation in this area are interpreted to be closely related to the Andean flat-slab subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. K–Ar fault gouge dating and low-temperature thermochronology along two transects within the Sierra de Comechingones reveal a minimum age for the onset of brittle deformation about 340 Ma, very low exhumation rates since Late Paleozoic time, as well as a total exhumation of about 2.3 km since the Late Cretaceous. New Ar–Ar ages (7.54–1.91 Ma) of volcanic rocks from the San Luis volcanic belt support the eastward propagation of the flat-slab magmatic front, confirming the onset of flat-slab related deformation in this region at 11.2 Ma. Although low-temperature thermochronology does not clearly constrain the signal of the Andean uplift, it is understood that the current structural relief related to the Comechingones range has been achieved after the exhumation of both fault walls (circa 80–70 Ma).     

Meshless numerical modeling of brittle–viscous deformation: first results on boudinage and hydrofracturing using a coupling of discrete element method (DEM) and smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH)

We have developed a new approach for the numerical modeling of deformation processes combining brittle fracture and viscous flow. The new approach is based on the combination of two meshless particle-based methods: the discrete element method (DEM) for the brittle part of the model and smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) for the viscous part. Both methods are well established in their respective application domains. The two methods are coupled at the particle scale, with two different coupling mechanisms explored: one is where DEM particles act as virtual SPH particles and one where SPH particles are treated like DEM particles when interacting with other DEM particles. The suitability of the combined approach is demonstrated by applying it to two geological processes, boudinage, and hydrofracturing, which involve the coupled deformation of a brittle solid and a viscous fluid. Initial results for those applications show that the new approach has strong potential for the numerical modeling of coupled brittle–viscous deformation processes.