Relative sunspot numbers in the first half of eighteenth century

We revised relative sunspot numbers in the time interval 1700–1748 for which Wolf derived their annual means. The frequency of daily observations, counting simultaneously the number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups necessary for determinating Wolf's relative sunspot numbers, is in this time interval very low and covers, on average, 4.8% of the number of all days only. There also exist incomplete observations not convenient to determine relative sunspot numbers. To enlarge the number of daily relative sunspot numbers we used the nonlinear, two-step interpolation method derived earlier by Letfus (1996, 1999). After interpolation, the mean value increased to 13.8%. Waldmeier (1968) found that the scaling factor k can be derived directly from the observed number of spots f and from the number of sunspot groups g. From the observations made at Zürich (Wolf and his assistants, Wolfer), at Peckeloh, and at Moncalieri during the years 1861–1928, we derived a new, more correct empirical relation. The resulting annual relative sunspot numbers are given in Table II. However, only for 26 years (53.0%) from the total number of 49 years was it possible to derive annual relative sunspot numbers. The observations were missing for the other years. This corresponds with results of Wolf, which gives the annual relative sunspot numbers for all 49 years. For the years when the data were missing, he marked these values as interpolated or very uncertain ones. Most of the observations originate from two data series (Kirch, Plantade), for which Wolf derived a higher scaling factor (k=2.0) than followed from the newly derived relation (k=1.40). The investigated time interval covers four solar cycles. After our results, the height of the first cycle (No. –4), given by Wolf, should be lowered by about two-thirds, the following two cycles (Nos. –3 and –2) lowered by one-third, as given by Wolf, and only the height of the fourth one (No. –1) should be unchanged. The activity levels of the cycles, as represented by group sunspot numbers, are lower by about one-fourth and, in the case of the first one (No. –4) even by two-thirds of the levels derived by us. The group sunspot numbers, derived from a much greater number of observations, have also greater credibility than other estimates. The shapes of the cycles, as given by Wolf, can be considered only as their more or less idealized form.     

On the sunspot transition region

The EUV line emission and relative line-of-sight velocity in the transition region between the chromosphere and corona of 36 sunspot regions are investigated, based on observations with the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer – CDS and the Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation – SUMER on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory – SOHO. The most prominent features in the transition-region intensity maps are the sunspot plumes. In the temperature range between log T=5.2 and log T=5.6 we find that 29 of the 36 sunspots contain one or two sunspot plumes. The relative line-of-sight velocity in sunspot plumes is high and directed into the Sun in the transition region, for 19 of the sunspots the maximum velocity exceeds 25 km s^?1. The velocity increases with increasing temperature, reaches a maximum close to log T=5.5 and then decreases abruptly.

Attention is given to the properties of oscillations with a period of 3 min in the sunspot transition region, based on observations of six sunspots. Comparing loci with the same phase we find that the 3-min oscillations affect the entire umbral transition region and part of the penumbral transition region. Above the umbra the observed relation between the oscillations in peak line intensity and line-of-sight velocity is compatible with the hypothesis that the oscillations are caused by upward-propagating acoustic waves. Information about intensity oscillations in the low corona is obtained from observations of one sunspot in the 171 Å channel with the Transition Region And Coronal Explorer – TRACE. We conclude that we observe the 3-min sunspot oscillations in the chromosphere, the transition region and the low corona. The oscillations are observable over a wider temperature range than the sunspot plumes, and show a different spatial distribution than that of the plumes.

     

MHD simulations of sunspot rotation and the coronal consequences

A simplified magnetic configuration is used to model some aspects of observations of a rotating sunspot and its overlying coronal loops. In the observations a large sunspot rotates over a few days and two smaller pores spiral into it. The coronal loops become sigmoidal in shape and flares are seen in Yohkoh/SXT and GOES. We have modeled the sunspot, one of the pores and the loops connecting these to a diffuse region of plasma of the opposite polarity. Two sets of MHD simulations are considered: (i) rotation of the sunspot and pore alone and (ii) rotation of the sunspot with inflow of the pore. Rotation alone can trigger the ideal kink instability in the loops but only for a rotation that is much greater than the observed value. There is no build-up of current which is needed for magnetic reconnection to occur. However, when inflow is included a strong build-up of current is seen as the pore merges with the sunspot. Comparing these results from the simulations with the observations, we find that the observed merging of the pores coincides with the timing of the flare. Therefore, we suggest that the merging of the pores with the large sunspot may be responsible for the flaring.     

Phase Space Analysis: The Equilibrium of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

We present the results of a statistical study of the solar cycle based on the analysis of the superficial toroidal magnetic field component phase space. The magnetic field component used to create the embedded phase space was constructed from monthly sunspot number observations since 1750. The phase space was split into 32 sections (or time instants) and the average values of the orbits on this phase space were calculated (giving the most probable cycle). In this phase space it is shown that the magnetic field on the Sun’s surface evolves through a set of orbits that go around a mean orbit (i.e., the most probable magnetic cycle that we interpret as the equilibrium solution). It follows that the most probable cycle is well represented by a van der Pol oscillator limit curve (equilibrium solution), as can be derived from mean-field dynamo theory. This analysis also retrieves the empirical Gnevyshev – Ohl’s rule between the first and second parts of the solar magnetic cycle. The sunspot number evolution corresponding to the most probable cycle (in phase space) is presented.     

Forecast of the Decadal Average Sunspot Number

The forecast of the decadal average sunspot number (SN) becomes possible with an extension of telescopic observations based on proxy reconstructions using the tree ring radiocarbon data during the Holocene. These decadal numbers (SN_RC) provide a powerful statistic to verify the forecasting methods. Complicated dynamics of long-term solar activity and noise of proxy-based reconstruction make the one-step-ahead forecast challenging for any forecasting method. Here we construct a continuous data set of SN_RC which extends the group sunspot number and the international sunspot number. The known technique of nonlinear forecast, the local linear approximation, is adapted to estimate the coming SN. Both the method and the continuous data set were tested and tuned to obtain the minimum of a normalized average prediction error (E) during the last millennium using several past millennia as a training data set. E=0.58σ _D is achieved to forecast the SN successive differences whose standard deviation is σ _D=7.39 for the period of training. This corresponds to the correlation (r=0.97) between true and forecasted SN. This error is significantly smaller than the prediction error when the surrogate data were used for the training data set, and proves the nonlinearity in the decadal SN. The estimated coming SN is smaller than the previous one.     

Nonlinear Evolution of Axisymmetric Twisted Flux Tubes in the Solar Tachocline

We study the periodicity of twisting motions in sunspot penumbral filaments, which were recently discovered from space (Hinode) and ground-based (SST) observations. A sunspot was well observed for 97 minutes by Hinode/SOT in the G-band (4305 Å) on 12 November 2006. By the use of the time?–?space gradient applied to intensity space?–?time plots, twisting structures can be identified in the penumbral filaments. Consistent with previous findings, we find that the twisting is oriented from the solar limb to disk center. Some of them show a periodicity. The typical period is about ≈?four minutes, and the twisting velocity is roughly 6 km s^?1. However, the penumbral filaments do not always show periodic twisting motions during the time interval of the observations. Such behavior seems to start and stop randomly with various penumbral filaments displaying periodic twisting during different intervals. The maximum number of periodic twists is 20 in our observations. Studying this periodicity can help us to understand the physical nature of the twisting motions. The present results enable us to determine observational constraints on the twisting mechanism.     

Constructing Semi-Empirical Sunspot Models for Helioseismology

One goal of helioseismology is to determine the subsurface structure of sunspots. In order to do so, it is important to understand first the near-surface effects of sunspots on solar waves, which are dominant. Here we construct simplified, cylindrically-symmetric sunspot models that are designed to capture the magnetic and thermodynamics effects coming from about 500 km below the quiet-Sun τ ₅₀₀₀=1 level to the lower chromosphere. We use a combination of existing semi-empirical models of sunspot thermodynamic structure (density, temperature, pressure): the umbral model of Maltby et al. (1986, Astrophys. J. 306, 284) and the penumbral model of Ding and Fang (1989, Astron. Astrophys. 225, 204). The OPAL equation-of-state tables are used to derive the sound-speed profile. We smoothly merge the near-surface properties to the quiet-Sun values about 1 Mm below the surface. The umbral and penumbral radii are free parameters. The magnetic field is added to the thermodynamic structure, without requiring magnetostatic equilibrium. The vertical component of the magnetic field is assumed to have a Gaussian horizontal profile, with a maximum surface field strength fixed by surface observations. The full magnetic-field vector is solenoidal and determined by the on-axis vertical field, which, at the surface, is chosen such that the field inclination is 45° at the umbral – penumbral boundary. We construct a particular sunspot model based on SOHO/MDI observations of the sunspot in active region NOAA 9787. The helioseismic signature of the model sunspot is studied using numerical simulations of the propagation of f, p ₁, and p ₂ wave packets. These simulations are compared against cross-covariances of the observed wave field. We find that the sunspot model gives a helioseismic signature that is similar to the observations.     

The Sidc: World Data Center for the Sunspot Index

Since January 1981, the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) has operated the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC), the World Data Center for the Sunspot Index. From 2000, the SIDC obtained the status of Regional Warning Center (RWC) of the International Space Environment Service (ISES) and became the “Solar Influences Data analysis Center”. As a data analysis service of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical data analysis Services (FAGS), the SIDC collects monthly observations from worldwide stations in order to calculate the International Sunspot Number, R _i . The center broadcasts the daily, monthly, yearly sunspot numbers, with middle-range predictions (up to 12 months). Since August 1992, hemispheric sunspot numbers are also provided. Deceased.     

Modelling the Longitudinal Asymmetry in Sunspot Emergence: The Role of the Wilson Depression

The distributions of sunspot longitude at first appearance and at disappearance display an east-west asymmetry that results from a reduction in visibility as one moves from disk centre to the limb. To first order, this is explicable in terms of simple geometrical foreshortening. However, the centre-to-limb visibility variation is much larger than that predicted by foreshortening. Sunspot visibility is also known to be affected by the Wilson effect: the apparent ‘dish’ shape of the sunspot photosphere caused by the temperature-dependent variation of the geometrical position of the τ=1 layer. In this article we investigate the role of the Wilson effect on the sunspot appearance distributions, deducing a mean depth for the umbral τ=1 layer of 500 – 1500 km. This is based on the comparison of observations of sunspot longitude distribution and Monte Carlo simulations of sunspot appearance using different models for spot growth rate, growth time and depth of Wilson depression.     

Power law relating 10.7 cm flux to sunspot number

To investigate the relation between observations of the 10.7 cm flux and the international sunspot number so that a physical unit may be ascribed to historical records, both polynomial and power law models are developed giving the radio flux as a function of sunspot number and vice versa. Bayesian data analysis is used to estimate the model parameters and to discriminate between the models. The effect on the parameter uncertainty and on the relative evidence of normalizing the measure of fit is investigated. The power law giving flux as a function of sunspot number is found to be the most plausible model and may be used to estimate the radio flux from historical sunspot observations.     

Erratum to: Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram

Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.     

Lithium abundance in sunspots

The observations of lithium were carried out with the TST-2 telescope at CrAO on August 15–20, 2006. A sunspot model was calculated for the dates of observations. The lithium abundance in a sunspot and in the undisturbed photosphere was determined. It is log(N _Li) = 1.35 for the sunspot and log (N _Li) = 1.05 for the undisturbed photosphere.     

On the electron density in sunspot plumes

Skylab observations of EUV line intensities in sunspot plumes, reported by Noyes et al. (1985), have been used to determine electron densities from theoretical curves of MgVI and MgVIII density-sensitive line ratios.     

On the relation between the solar activity cycle and the solar tidal force induced by the planets

The cross-correlation coefficient (t) of the solar tidal force induced by the planets f(x + t) with the sunspot number g(x) during a period of 44 years is about -0.7 when t is about -2 years. This fact will be useful for predicting solar activity. The solar tidal force was calculated from 1928 to 1971 for every degree on the equatorial plane and every time every planet moves one degree. As the solar tidal force, we used the moving annual average by months of the square of the vertical tidal force on the sun, and as the sunspot number we used the Zürich mean annual sunspot number.     

Intensity profiles of a sunspot near the solar limb

Photo-electric observations of the intensity profile of a sunspot at a heliocentric angle of 76° at four wavelengths are reported. An intensity peak at the centre-side penumbra-photosphere border predicted by Jensen et al. (1969) has been observed.     

Two-Dimensional Spectroscopy of Photospheric Shear Flows in a Small <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis> Spot

In recent high-resolution observations of complex active regions, long-lasting and well-defined regions of strong flows were identified in major flares and associated with bright kernels of visible, near-infrared, and X-ray radiation. These flows, which occurred in the proximity of the magnetic neutral line, significantly contributed to the generation of magnetic shear. Signatures of these shear flows are strongly curved penumbral filaments, which are almost tangential to sunspot umbrae rather than exhibiting the typical radial filamentary structure. Solar active region NOAA 10756 was a moderately complex β δ sunspot group, which provided an opportunity to extend previous studies of such shear flows to quieter settings. We conclude that shear flows are a common phenomenon in complex active regions and δ spots. However, they are not necessarily a prerequisite condition for flaring. Indeed, in the present observations, the photospheric shear flows along the magnetic neutral line are not related to any change of the local magnetic shear. We present high-resolution observations of NOAA 10756 obtained with the 65-cm vacuum reflector at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). Time series of speckle-reconstructed white-light images and two-dimensional spectroscopic data were combined to study the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional vector flow field in the β δ sunspot group. An hour-long data set of consistent high quality was obtained, which had a cadence of better than 30 seconds and subarcsecond spatial resolution.     

The Relative Phase Asynchronization between Sunspot Numbers and Polar Faculae

The monthly sunspot numbers compiled by Temmer et al. and the monthly polar faculae from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, for the interval of March 1954 to March 1996, are used to investigate the phase relationship between polar faculae and sunspot activity for total solar disk and for both hemispheres in solar cycles 19, 20, 21 and 22. We found that (1) the polar faculae begin earlier than sunspot activity, and the phase difference exhibits a consistent behaviour for different hemispheres in each of the solar cycles, implying that this phenomenon should not be regarded as a stochastic fluctuation; (2) the inverse correlation between polar faculae and sunspot numbers is not only a long-term behaviour, but also exists in short time range; (3) the polar faculae show leads of about 50–71 months relative to sunspot numbers, and the phase difference between them varies with solar cycle; (4) the phase difference value in the northern hemisphere differs from that in the southern hemisphere in a solar cycle, which means that phase difference also existed between the two hemispheres. Moreover, the phase difference between the two hemispheres exhibits a periodical behaviour. Our results seem to support the finding of Hiremath (2010).     

A note on the values of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field in the return flux sunspot model

The Return Flux (RF) sunspot model (Osherovich, 1982) imposes a restriction on the value of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field, dB/dz, analogous to a restriction implied by the self-similar sunspot model of Schlüter and Temesvary (ST). The maximum value of the gradient, (dB/dz)_max, is shown to be 10% smaller in the RF model than in the ST model. The dependence of (dB/dz)_max on the sunspot radius is predicted.     

The Maunder Minimum and the Sun as the Possible Source of Particles Creating Increased Abundance of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C Carbon Isotope

The Maunder Minimum was the time during the second part of the 17th century, nominally from 1645 to 1717 AD, when unusually low numbers of sunspots were observed. On the basis of numerous recorded observations of auroras in the early 18th century, the end of the Minimum could be regarded as around 1700, but details of sunspot observations by Jan Heweliusz (Heweliusz, Machina Coelestis, 1679), John Flamsteed and Philippe de La Hire in 1684 allow us to interpret the Maunder Minimum as the period without a significant cessation of activity. This Minimum was also recognized in ¹⁴C data from trees which grew during the second part of 17th century. The variation in the production rate of radioactive carbon isotope ¹⁴C is due to modulation of the cosmic ray flux producing it by the changing level of solar activity and solar magnetic flux. Stronger magnetic fields in the solar wind make it more difficult for cosmic rays to reach the Earth, causing a drop in the production rate of ¹⁴C. However, more detailed analyses of ¹⁴C data indicate that the highest isotope abundances do not occur at the time of sunspot minima, as would be expected on the basis of modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar magnetic field, but two years after the sunspot number maximum. This time difference (or phase delay) can be accounted for if in fact there are both solar and non-solar cosmic ray contributions. Solar flares could also contribute high-energy particles and produce ¹⁴C and are generally not most frequent at the time of the highest sunspot numbers in the cycle.     

A Detailed Comparison of Cosmic Ray Gaps with solar Gnevyshev Gaps

After increasing almost monotonically from sunspot minimum, sunspot activity near maximum falters and remains in a narrow grove for several tens of months. During the 2–3 years of turmoil near sunspot maximum, sunspots depict several peaks (Gnevyshev peaks). The spaces between successive peaks are termed as Gnevyshev Gaps (GG). An examination showed that the depths of the troughs varied considerably from one GG to the next in the same cycle, with magnitudes varying in a wide range (<1% to ∼20%). In any cycle, the sunspot patterns were dissimilar to those of other solar parameters, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, indicating a general turbulence, affecting different solar parameters differently. The solar polar magnetic field reversal does not occur at the beginning of the general turmoil; it occurs much later. For cosmic ray (CR) modulation which occurs deep in the heliosphere, one would have thought that the solar open magnetic field flux would play a crucial role, but observations show that the sunspot GGs are not reflected well in the solar open magnetic flux, where sometimes only one peak occurred (hence no GG at all), not matching with any sunspot peak and with different peaks in the northern and southern hemispheres (north – south asymmetry). Gaps are seen in interplanetary parameters but these do not match exactly with sunspot GGs. For CR data available only for five cycles (19 – 23), there are CR gaps in some cycles, but the CR gaps do not match perfectly with gaps in the solar open magnetic field flux or in interplanetary parameters or with sunspot GGs. Durations are different and/or there are variable delays, and magnitudes of the sunspot GGs and CR gaps are not proportional. Solar polar magnetic field reversal intervals do not coincide with either sunspot GGs or CR gaps, and some CR gaps start before magnetic field reversals, which should not happen if the magnetic field reversals are the cause of the CR gaps.