基于遥感和GIS的喜马拉雅山科西河流域冰湖变化特征分析

受全球气候变暖的影响, 冰川退缩, 冰湖数量增多和面积增大被认为指示气候变化的重要依据, 冰湖面积增大导致其潜在危险性增大. 因此, 研究冰湖的变化对于气候变化和冰湖灾害研究具有重要意义. 基于Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像采用人工解译的方法, 获取了喜马拉雅山地区科西河流域1990年前后、2000年和2010年的冰湖数据, 并对冰湖面积>0.1 km²且一直存在的199个冰湖的面积和长度变化进行对比分析. 结果表明: 科西河流域内面积>0.1 km²的冰湖的面积呈现增加趋势, 1990年冰湖面积为73.59 km², 2010年冰湖面积增加至86.12 km². 科西河流域内喜马拉雅山南北坡冰湖变化存在差异, 喜马拉雅山北坡变化较大的冰湖主要分布在海拔4 800~5 600 m之间, 而南坡变化较大的冰湖主要分布在海拔4 300~5 200 m之间; 喜马拉雅山北坡的冰湖有65%的冰湖表现扩张, 且扩张冰湖的面积主要是由冰湖在靠近终碛垅的一端基本不发生变化, 而仅在靠近冰川一端发生变化贡献的; 喜马拉雅山南坡的冰湖有32%的冰湖变化表现扩张, 且扩张的冰湖面积主要来自于冰面湖扩张. 在科西河流域内, 位于喜马拉雅山北坡的冰湖平均变化速度略高于南坡的冰湖平均变化速度.     

西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰湖溃决的预测模型及其应用研究

以西藏喜马拉雅山地区的冰湖为研究对象,基于现有的冰湖溃决预测方法,提出了建立冰湖溃决预测方法的关键点,即选取的指标必须能够体现冰湖的动态变化特征.在定量分析的建模过程中应该采用不确定性的数学理论,对于冰湖溃决可能性的等级划分需要进行合理性及实用性验证.选取坝顶宽度、湖水面距坝顶高度与坝高之比、冰湖面积和补给冰川面积为预测指标,通过对西藏喜马拉雅山地区29个冰湖样本进行逻辑回归分析,建立了冰湖溃决的预测模型,并用所有样本进行了交叉验证.结果表明：该模型能够在分类应用中取得较好效果,根据溃决冰湖累积百分数随冰湖溃决可能性大小的变化曲线,将冰湖溃决的可能性划分为四个等级.以黄湖为例,把湖水面距坝顶高度与坝高之比作为冰湖溃决的诱变指标,分析了冰湖溃决可能性大小的变化规律.结合现有的冰湖溃决预测的定性方法,讨论了所建立的冰湖溃决预测模型的优点和缺点.     

A high resolution,multiproxy Late‐glacial record of climate change and intrasystem responses in northwest England

A lacustrine carbonate sequence from Hawes Water, Lancashire, UK, has been studied using stable isotopic, lithological, pollen and mineral magnetic analysis. The data reveal four abrupt climatic oscillations in the Late‐glacial Interstadial leading up to the onset of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The data also point to climatic warming relatively early within the stadial, ca. 12 500 GRIP yr, prior to the onset of the Holocene. The oxygen isotope record is taken as a signature of climate forcing against which the response of the lake‐system can be monitored. By adopting this approach it is revealed that the response of the biological system to the rapid climatic oscillations is non‐linear and primarily a function of the antecedent conditions. A significant end‐Devensian isotopic excursion (A) is matched by only minor changes in the cold‐adapted floras and faunas. During the warmer interstadial, the response of the biological ecosystem (events B–D) is clearly influenced by thresholds: major changes in the catchment vegetation associated with relatively minor oscillations in the isotopic signature. The stratigraphical patterns reveal significant lag effects between the onset of climate deterioration and resulting changes in vegetation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

西藏喜马拉雅山脉中段冰湖变化与溃决特征分析 ——以桑旺错和什磨错为例

年楚河流域是西藏自治区农业相对发达的地区,流域内冰川发育较好,冰川融水是地表径流重要的组成部分,冰湖溃决洪水灾害也威胁着下游村镇和城市。本文利用遥感技术对流域内桑旺错和什磨错两个冰湖特征进行分析,结合实地野外调查,对冰湖变化和溃决特征展开讨论。结果表明：1987-2018年,桑旺错和什磨错都呈扩张趋势,面积分别增加了0.31 km²（5.56%）和0.954 km²（96.9%）,变化率分别为0.054 km²·（10a）^-1和0.311 km²·（10a）^-1。桑旺错和什磨错侧碛垄、终碛垄为松散堆积物,结构松散、稳定性差。桑旺错出水口开阔,出水流畅。什磨错没有出水口,在最内侧终碛垄外有渗流。桑旺错和什磨错后缘冰川冰舌相接,冰舌陡峭,冰舌崩塌可能性较大,同时两湖侧碛垄稳定性较低,也存在崩塌的风险。桑旺错溃决风险较小,什磨错溃决风险较大。     

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2013年西藏嘉黎县“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水成因及潜在危害

冰湖溃决洪水（泥石流）是西藏自治区主要自然灾害之一. 2013年7月5日,西藏自治区嘉黎县忠玉乡发生“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水灾害事件,导致人员失踪,房屋被毁,桥梁、道路等基础设施遭到严重破坏,直接经济损失高达2.7亿元. 基于不同时间段地形图和遥感影像资料,利用地理信息技术,发现导致“7.5”洪灾的溃决冰湖为然则日阿错. 该冰湖溃决的直接诱因可能是雪崩和冰崩的共同作用,溃决前的强降水过程及气温的快速上升是其间接原因,而冰湖长期稳定的扩张导致水量聚集是其溃决并造成巨大灾害的基础. 然则日阿错溃决后形成2个冰湖,面积分别为0.25 km²和0.01 km²,再次发生溃决的概率极小. 这次溃决洪水和泥石流灾害事件阻塞了尼都藏布的罗琼沟及衣布沟,并形成2处面积分别为0.33 km²和0.13 km²堰塞湖,且存在溃决风险,在今后一段时间内应加强监测工作与排险工程实施.     

Multibeam bathymetric and sediment profiler evidence for ice grounding on the Chukchi Borderland, Arctic Ocean

Multibeam bathymetry and 3.5-kHz sub-bottom profiler data collected from the US icebreaker Healy in 2003 provide convincing evidence for grounded ice on the Chukchi Borderland off the northern Alaskan margin, Arctic Ocean. The data show parallel, glacially induced seafloor scours, or grooves, and intervening ridges that reach widths of 1000 m (rim to rim) and as much as 40 m relief. Following previous authors, we refer to these features as “megascale glacial lineations (MSGLs).” Additional support for ice grounding is apparent from stratigraphic unconformities, interpreted to have been caused by ice-induced erosion. Most likely, the observed sea-floor features represent evidence for massive ice-shelf grounding. The general ESE/WNW direction of the MSGLs, together with sediment, evidently bulldozed off the Chukchi Plateau, that is mapped on the western (Siberian) side of the plateau, suggests ice flow from the Canada Basin side of Chukchi Borderland. Two separate generations of glacially derived MSGLs are identified on the Chukchi Borderland from the Healy geophysical data. The deepest and oldest extensive MSGLs appear to be draped by sediments less than 5 m thick, whereas no sediment drape can be distinguished within the resolution of the sub-bottom profiles on the younger generation.     

我国西藏地区冰湖溃决灾害综述

冰湖溃决是我国西藏地区典型的地质灾害类型之一,具有突发性强、规模大、破坏力强和危害范围广等特点,往往造成下游地区遭受惨重的生命财产损失。冰湖溃决成因特征是形成机制、早期识别和危险性评价等冰湖溃决研究的基础,受客观条件限制,我国西藏冰湖溃决的基础调查工作存在资料分散甚至缺失的局限性。为解决这个难题,通过资料收集、遥感解译和野外调查等技术手段,重新梳理了我国西藏地区的冰湖溃决事件及基本特征,共调查出33个冰湖37次溃决事件,其中2个为冰川阻塞湖（简称冰川湖）,划定了冰湖溃决高发地带的地理分布位置,分析出冰崩/冰滑坡、埋藏冰融化、冰川融水、强降水、泥石流和上游冰湖溃决洪水6种诱发原因,为我国西藏冰湖溃决研究提供基础调查成果和参考依据。     

Late‐glacial and early Holocene changes in vegetation and lake‐level at Hauterive/Rouges‐Terres,Lake Neuchâtel (Switzerland)

Palynological and sedimentological analyses of a sedimentary sequence sampled at Hauterive/Rouges‐Terres, Lake Neuchâtel (Switzerland) provide documentation of changes in vegetation and lake‐level during the Bølling, Younger Dryas and Preboreal pollen zones, and have allowed a comparison with sequences covering the same period from other sites located in the western part of the Swiss Plateau. The Juniperus–Hippophaë zone (regional pollen assemblage zone (RPAZ) CHb‐2, first part of the Bølling, ca. 14 650–14 450 cal. yr BP) was characterised by a generally low lake‐level. A weak rise occurred during this zone. The Juniperus–Hippophaë to Betula zone transition coincided with a lake‐level lowering, interrupted by a short‐lived but marked phase of higher lake‐level recorded at the neighbouring site of Hauterive‐Champréveyres, but not present at Hauterive/Rouges‐Terres owing to an erosion surface. Shortly after the beginning of the Betula zone (RPAZ CHb‐3, second part of the Bølling, ca 14 450–14 000 cal. yr BP), a marked rise in lake‐level occurred. It was composed of two successive periods of higher level, coinciding with high values of Betula, separated by a short episode of relatively lower lake‐level associated with raised values in Artemisia and other non‐arboreal pollen. The last part of RPAZ CHb‐3 saw a fall in lake‐level. The lower lake‐levels during RPAZ CHb‐2 to early RPAZ CHb‐3 can be correlated with the abrupt warming at the beginning of the Greenland Interstadial (GI) 1e thermal maximum. The successive episodes of higher lake‐level punctuating the GI 1e might be linked to the so‐called Intra‐Bølling Cold Oscillations identified from several palaeoclimatic records in the North Atlantic area, and also documented in oxygen‐isotope data sets from Swiss Plateau lakes. The Hauterive/Rouges‐Terres lake‐level record provides evidence for marked climatic drying through the second part of the Younger Dryas event (GS1), during the GS1–Preboreal (RPAZ CHb‐4b–4c) transition (except for a rise at ca. 11 450–11 400 cal. yr BP), and at the RPAZ CHb‐4c–5 (Preboreal–Boreal) transition, following the Preboreal Oscillation (after 11 150 cal. yr BP). The Preboreal Oscillation coincided with higher lake‐levels, its end being followed by a rapid expansion of Corylus, Quercus, Ulmus and Tilia. The Hauterive/Rouges‐Terres lake‐level record suggests that radiocarbon plateau at 12 600, 10 000 and 9500 ¹⁴C yr BP corresponded to periods of generally lower lake‐level. This suggests that an increase in solar activity may have contributed to both climatic dryness and a decrease in atmospheric radiocarbon content. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Signatures of slope failures and river‐delta collapses in a perialpine lake (Lake Lucerne,Switzerland)

Historical reports from the 17th Century document two destructive tsunamis with run‐ups exceeding 5 m, affecting proximal basins of Lake Lucerne (Switzerland). One event in ad 1601 is coeval with a strong nearby earthquake (M_W ca 5·9) which caused extensive slope failures in many parts of the lake. The second event in ad 1687 is associated with an apparently spontaneous partial collapse of the Muota river delta. This study combines high‐resolution bathymetry, reflection seismic and lithological data to document the sedimentary and morphological signatures of the two subaqueous mass movements that probably generated the observed tsunamis. Such mass movements are significant as a common sedimentation process and as a natural hazard in fjord‐type lakes and similar environments. The deposits, covering large parts of the basins with thicknesses reaching >10 m, consist of two subunits: A lower ‘massflow deposit’ contains variably deformed sediments from the source areas. Its emplacement affected pre‐existing sediments, incorporating thin sediment slices into the deposit and increasing its volume. Deep‐reaching deformation near basin margins is expressed as bulges on the lake floor. An overlying ‘megaturbidite’, featuring a graded, sandy base and a thick homogeneous muddy part, was deposited from suspended particles. The source area for the ad 1601 event, gently dipping lateral slopes with an unconsolidated hemipelagic sediment cover, hosts a pronounced slide scar with sharp escarpments and sliding surfaces. The source area for the ad 1687 event on an active delta slope has been overprinted by continued sedimentation and does not show an unambiguous scar. The case studies are exemplary for end‐member types of source areas (lateral versus delta slopes) and trigger mechanisms (seismic versus aseismic); they show that morphological mapping and reconstructions of past events are key components of a hazard assessment for mass movement‐generated tsunamis.     

Late glacial and holocene lake level fluctuations in Lake Biel,western Switzerland

Cores and outcrops from the southern shore of Lake Biel were studied to reconstruct the nearshore environment of the lake between ca. 12000 and 5000 yr BP. Core correlations were established by lithostratigraphical and pollen analytical correlations. From the Allerød to the Preboreal time quiet hydrodynamic conditions favoured the deposition of lake marl in the littoral zone and peat on the shore. Between the Preboreal(?) and the Atlantic the littoral zone shows a higher hydrodynamic environment with allochthonous material, whereas peat and clay layers are recorded from the shore. During the Older Atlantic severe erosional episodes caused the erosion of Boreal, Preboreal and Younger Atlantic layers. The previously described long hiatus between the Allerød and the Boreal time can now be connected with these erosional episodes. From Younger Atlantic to Subboreal time the littoral zone displays quiet conditions again with sedimentation of lake marl. On the basis of these results a lake level curve for Lake Biel is proposed: high lake level stands can be traced during the Allerød, Boreal, Older Atlantic and Younger Atlantic biozones; low lake level stands are found during the Allerød, Younger Dryas, Preboreal and Older Atlantic biozones.     

Luminescence chronology of non‐glacial sediments in Changeable Lake,Russian High Arctic,and implications for limited Eurasian ice‐sheet extent during the LGM

A 10.5 m core from Changeable Lake in the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago just north of the Taymyr Peninsula intersects ca. 30 cm of diamicton at its base, interpreted as a basal till. Because the upper 10.13 m of this core consists of non‐glacial sediments, a maximum numeric age for these non‐glacial sediments would provide a clear lower limit to the timing of the last glaciation in the area of Changeable Lake. Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating of several materials from this core yielded widely scattered results. Consequently we applied photonic dating to sediments above the diamicton. The experimental single‐aliquot‐regenerative (SAR) dose fine‐grain method was applied to two samples, using the ‘double SAR’ approach. With one exception, these fine‐grain SAR results and the results of application of the SAR method to sand‐sized quartz grains from two samples, at ca. 9.95 m and ca. 10.05 m depth, are discrepant with age estimates from the multi‐aliquot infrared‐photon‐stimulated luminescence (IR‐PSL) method applied to fine grains. Multi‐aliquot IR‐PSL dating of 10 samples produces ages increasing monotonically from ca. 4 ka at 2 m to 53 ± 4 ka at 9.97 m. These self‐consistent multi‐aliquot IR‐PSL ages, along with limiting ¹⁴C ages of >47 ka at ca. 10 m, provide direct evidence that glacial ice did not advance over this lake basin during the Last Glacial Maximum, and thus delimit the northeastern margin of the Barents–Kara Sea ice‐sheet to somewhere west of this archipelago. The last regional glaciation probably occurred during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 or earlier. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐resolution proglacial lake records of pre‐Little Ice Age glacier advance,northeast Greenland

Understanding Arctic glacier sensitivity is key to predicting future response to air temperature rise. Previous studies have used proglacial lake sediment records to reconstruct Holocene glacier advance–retreat patterns in South and West Greenland, but high‐resolution glacier records from High Arctic Greenland are scarce, despite the sensitivity of this region to future climate change. Detailed geochemical analysis of proglacial lake sediments close to Zackenberg, northeast Greenland, provides the first high‐resolution record of Late Holocene High Arctic glacier behaviour. Three phases of glacier advance have occurred in the last 2000 years. The first two phases (c. 1320–800 cal. a BP) occurred prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA), and correspond to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The third phase (c. 700 cal. a BP), representing a smaller scale glacier oscillation, is associated with the onset of the LIA. Our results are consistent with recent evidence of pre‐LIA glacier advance in other parts of the Arctic, including South and West Greenland, Svalbard, and Canada. The sub‐millennial glacier fluctuations identified in the Madsen Lake succession are not preserved in the moraine record. Importantly, coupled XRF and XRD analysis has effectively identified a phase of ice advance that is not visible by sedimentology alone. This highlights the value of high‐resolution geochemical analysis of lake sediments to establish rapid glacier advance–retreat patterns in regions where chronological and morphostratigraphical control is limited.     

Chironomid‐inferred late‐glacial summer air temperatures from Lough Nadourcan,Co. Donegal,Ireland

Western Ireland, located adjacent to the North Atlantic, and with a strongly oceanic climate, is potentially sensitive to rapid and extreme climate change. We present the first high‐resolution chironomid‐inferred mean July temperature reconstruction for Ireland, spanning the late‐glacial and early Holocene (LGIT, 15–10 ka BP). The reconstruction suggests an initial rapid warming followed by a short cool phase early in the interstadial. During the interstadial there are oscillations in the inferred temperatures which may relate to Greenland Interstadial events GI‐1a–e. The temperature decrease into the stadial occurs in two stages. This two‐stage drop can also be seen in other late‐glacial chironomid‐inferred temperature records from the British Isles. A stepped rise in temperatures into the Holocene, consistent with present‐day temperatures in Donegal, is inferred. The results show strong similarities with previously published LGIT chironomid‐inferred temperature reconstructions, and with the NGRIP oxygen‐isotope curve, which indicates that the oscillations observed in the NGRIP record are of hemispherical significance. The results also highlight the influence of the North Atlantic on the Irish climate throughout the LGIT. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国低纬季风区晚冰期以来水文变化：南岭东部高分辨率湖沼沉积记录

南岭东部定南大湖盆地湖沼相沉积高分辨率记录揭示了16.0cal ka BP以来的水文变化过程。由于该盆地主要以降水补给为主,故其水文变化过程是该地区气候与环境变化的忠实反映。多气候代用指标揭示晚冰期以来的Oldest Dryas、Blling、Older Dryas、Allerd和Younger Dryas等短尺度气候快速变化事件。10.0～6.0cal ka BP期间,该地区降水最为丰沛,暗示了夏季风在该时期最强盛,但在约9.7～9.4cal ka BP和8.8～8.2calka BP前后出现过降水骤减事件;在6.0～3.0cal ka BP期间,研究区降水显著减少,夏季风势力明显减弱。大湖盆地全新世气候变化记录与我国低纬度区域近年来的研究记录具有很好的一致性,说明低纬地区全新世适宜期应在10.0～6.0cal ka BP期间。在全球气候变化对比上,大湖盆地降水减少时期大多对应于北大西洋深水流或温盐循环减弱时期,也对应于北大西洋浮冰砾高峰时期;早全新世(10.0～6.0cal ka BP)降水丰沛期对应于北大西洋深水流加强时期;表明北大西洋深水流变化所导致的高低纬地区热量差异与我国低纬季风区过去气候变化有某种遥相关。此外,大湖盆地晚冰期以来气候变化趋势与北半球夏季太阳辐射量变化趋势吻合。因此笔者认为东亚低纬季风区晚冰期以来气候变化机制与太阳辐射量变化、大洋温盐循环等有关。     

Imaging glacial sediment inclusions in 3‐D using ground‐penetrating radar at Kongsvegen,Svalbard

The quiescent‐phase surge‐type glacier, Kongsvegen, flows confluent with the continuously fast‐flowing Kronebreen in northwestern Spitsbergen. The lower regions of Kongsvegen overlie glaciomarine sediments, which have been incorporated into the ice during multiple surge events. The resulting englacial structures are exposed at the surface and on a cliff section. These structures have variously been interpreted as thrusts, formed by compression, or sediment‐filled crevasses, formed by extension. We collected a grid of closely spaced ground‐penetrating radar profiles in the area adjacent to the cliff section. Several structures were imaged in 3‐D, including a strong subhorizontal basal reflector, which was underlain by a second, weaker subhorizontal reflector. The basal reflector was occasionally reverse faulted, suggesting compression. Clear englacial features extended upwards from it, dipping up‐glacier at angles of <40° and steepening towards the glacier surface; they had complex geometries that changed rapidly cross‐glacier. The structures were orientated at ～30° to ice flow, suggesting modification by lateral compression from Kronebreen. Some of these englacial structures clearly crossed the basal reflector. We conclude that the englacial features imaged are not likely to be derived from crevasse filling and were probably formed by thrusting. The results contribute to our understanding of surge initiation and termination processes, and interpretation of features in the palaeorecord. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川四姑娘山风景名胜区地貌特征

四姑娘山为国家重点风景名胜区和国家级自然保护区，其主峰海拔6250m，是四川省第二高峰。区内山势陡峭，地貌差异明显。海拔3800m以下，发育流水侵蚀、堆积地貌；海拔3800m以上广泛发育第四纪冰蚀地貌和古冰川堆积地貌。现代冰川海拔大约在5500m左右，受局部地形、供雪量影响，最低处可达4600m左右。     

西藏札达盆地及周缘高山区第四纪冰川堆积及冰川进退规程讨论

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