A solar cycle timing predictor - the latitude of active regions

The Schatten and Sofia (1987) dynamo theory prediction for the amplitude of smoothed annual sunspot number in the present solar cycle, No. 22, of 170 ± 25 was predicted to peak in 1990 ± 1 year. This peak was earlier and larger than most other estimates made in early 1987. New observational evidence shows sunspot values rising very rapidly, generally supporting the exceptionally large cycle predicted, however, solar cycle 22 appears even more exceptional than expected, in that the early cycle rise has exceeded all previous cycle increases. We use a Spörer butterfly method to examine solar cycle 22. We show from the latitude of active regions, that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 ±8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.This paper was presented at the third meeting of the Solar Cycle Workshop, held in Sydney, Australia, January 9–13, 1989.     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

The restricted problem of n+ν bodies

The simplest, conventional, and original form of the circular restricted problem of three bodies is briefly described in sidereal and synodic systems using dimensional and non-dimensional variables. This dynamical system is generalized to n2 primary bodies (from n=2) with masses M_i, 1in, interacting with arbitrary force laws (instead of only gravitational forces). The number of bodies of small mass mM_i not perturbing the primaries is increased from =1 to 1 where 1 and the minor bodies are allowed to interact with one another under arbitrary force laws. While the minor bodies (m) do not affect the motions of the primaries (M_i), the primaries influence the motions of the minor bodies with arbitrary force laws.For the case where n=2, 1, and only gravitational forces act on the system, an integral of the system is derived. It is shown that the energy integral of the general problem of N bodies and the Jacobian integral of the classical restricted problem of three bodies are limiting cases of this integral. The role of the integral in bounding the motion of the minor bodies is discussed. Several applications of this system are given.     

Observations and analyses of solar radio metric narrow-band fast pulsation phenomena

Fast pulsation events, corresponding optical activities and correlated events, observed with the acousto-optical spectrograph at the Yunnan Observatory during the 22nd solar cycle, are statistically analyzed in this paper. Some basic characteristics of the pulsation events in the 230–300 MHz range are obtained. In particular, unusual events with narrow bandwidths (10 MHz) and extremely short periods (25–55 ms) pulsation phenomena were observed. The production mechanisms for these rare pulsations are qualitatively discussed.     

Present Observational Status of the Intermediate Mass Stars: δ Sct Stars, γ Dor Stars and roAp Stars

The present observational status of the Sct stars, Dor stars and roAp stars is discussed. The Sct stars are the most intensively observed of the three groups, but it has become clear that there are severe problems in extracting asteroseismic information from them. Dozens of frequencies are observed, but hundreds of frequencies are predicted from the models; unique matches of observation and theory still elude us. The Sct stars are observationally complex – some recent `best case' campaigns are discussed. It is possible that substantial observational advances for Sct stars may need to await upcoming satellite missions. New Dor stars are beingdiscovered frequently, and new behaviour is being found for them. They constitutean observationally young field. Their pulsational frequency range is being expanded, their position in the HR diagram is becoming better known (but is yet to be fully constrained), and the possibility exists of hybrid Dor – Sct stars that have greatasteroseismic promise, although it is clear such stars are rare, if they do exist. It has been observationally challenging to extract more than a fewfrequencies for any Dor star so far. Exciting spectroscopic discoveries of new behaviour in roAp stars promise unprecedented information about the structure of the peculiar atmospheres ofthose stars – pulsation amplitude and phase in 3D, magnetic field structurein 3D, abundance stratification in 3D, realistic T- for the most peculiarstars – as well as entirely new information about the interaction of pulsation,rotation and magnetic fields. Recent theoretical work has led to new understandingof the previously inexplicable frequency spacing of HR 1217 with new Whole Earth Telescope observations supporting this theory. An `improved oblique pulsator model' has been developed in which the pulsationaxis is not the magnetic axis; this model has passed several observationaltests and new ones are being devised to examine it further.     

Сопоставление модели карлсона с моделью сплошной среды

, (1962, 1963) . , (1) (2) .     

On the relationships between sfe (crochet) and solar X-ray and microwave bursts

Geomagnetic crochets (sfe) observed at Kodaikanal over the period 1966–71 have been studied in relation to solar X-ray bursts observed by NRL satellite (SOLRAD-9) in the 0.5–3 Å, 1–8 Å and 8–20 Å bands and radio bursts observed in the frequency range 1000–17000 MHz. The amplitude of sfe is linearly correlated with the peak intensities of X-ray bursts in the 1–8 Å and 8–20 Å bands. The single frequency correlation of sfe with radio bursts is a flat maximum in the frequency range 2000–3750 MHz. Following the spectral classification of AFCRL for microwave bursts, it is noticed that sfe are mostly associated with the A type burst spectra and are very poorly correlated with bursts with the G, C and M type spectra. These features differ from those of other SID's reported earlier.     

F07164+5301: an ESB source with WR features

We report on a new ESB source, as defined by Allenet al. (1991), with Wolf-Rayet (WR) bands in its optical spectrum. The WR bump at 4605-4686 is detected. The bump consists of broad HeII 4686, NV4605-4619, NIII4634-41, and possibly, CIII4647-52 emission. The narrow nebular lines are clearly discernable on our spectrum. The number of WR stars derived from the luminosity of HeII4686 is about 8100. The oxygen abundance is about 9.06×10^–4, greater than the solar value.     

Околозвездные оБлака по данным 2800 Mgii

2800 Mgii (. 1). (N ⁺/N ₁1000) , , (N ⁺/N ₁10). , . —, , . — . : ; 0.002 1 , 0.1 ; () 100 ^–3; ; ; , 10 ; 10^–4 1 . 2800 Mgii .     

Структура и эволюция Сверхмассивных вращающихся магнитных политроп

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The structure of rotating magnetic polytropes is considered in Roche approximation. Investigation of the influence of poloidal as well as toroidal magnetic fields on the conditions of the beginning of matter outflow due to rotational instability is carried out. The influence of the turbulent convection and twisting of magnetic force-lines on the time of smoothing of differential rotation is considered. The estimate of the magneto-turbulence energy generated by differential rotation is presented. Both maximum possible energy output and duration of the quasi-statical evolution phase up to the appearance of hydrodynamic instability due to the effects of general relativity are calculated for supermassive magnetic polytropes of index three with uniform or differential rotation. The radius-mass relation is obtained for supermassive differentially-rotating magnetic polytropes referring to the longest part of the quasi-statistical evolution stage; some consequences are pointed out, including the period-luminosity relation.The evolution of the considered models of supermassive rotating magnetic polytropes with different character of rotation and different geometry of a magnetic field is discussed.The results obtained are summarized in the last section.

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English translation will appear in the next issue ofAstrophys. Space Sci.

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Receipt delayed by postal strike in Great Britain     

The longitudinal distribution of the green corona activity

Two solar cycle observational material (1947–1968) from several corona stations brought to one intensity scale have been used to study the longitudinal distribution of the green corona activity. The active longitudes rotating with a period of 28 days are visualized. There is only very small dependence of the rotational period on the heliographic latitude. This fact recalls the known theory of the underphotospheric rigid body rotation.     

Формирование Универсальных и Диффузионных Участков Нелинйных Спектров Релятивистских Электронов В Пространственно Ограниченных Источниках

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ОJ 287: Поляризационное и фотометрическое поведение В 1971–1976 гг

J 287 1972–1976. , . . J ( ), () . (₀=80°) . J 287 ¶ . p=42.8%, ₀=101°. (50%).     

Understanding Solar Flare Waiting-Time Distributions

The observed distribution of waiting times t between X-ray solar flares of greater than C1 class listed in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) catalog exhibits a power-law tail (t) for large waiting times (t>10hours). It is shown that the power-law index varies with the solar cycle. For the minimum phase of the cycle the index is =–1.4±0.1, and for the maximum phase of the cycle the index is –3.2±0.2. For all years 1975–2001, the index is –2.2±0.1. We present a simple theory to account for the observed waiting-time distributions in terms of a Poisson process with a time-varying rate (t). A common approximation of slow variation of the rate with respect to a waiting time is examined, and found to be valid for the GOES catalog events. Subject to this approximation the observed waiting-time distribution is determined by f(), the time distribution of the rate . If f() has a power-law form for low rates, the waiting time-distribution is predicted to have a power-law tail (t)^–(3+) (>–3). Distributions f() are constructed from the GOES data. For the entire catalog a power-law index =–0.9±0.1 is found in the time distribution of rates for low rates (<0.1hours ^–1). For the maximum and minimum phases power-law indices =–0.1±0.5 and =–1.7±0.2, respectively, are observed. Hence, the Poisson theory together with the observed time distributions of the rate predict power-law tails in the waiting-time distributions with indices –2.2±0.1 (1975–2001), –2.9±0.5 (maximum phase) and –1.3±0.2 (minimum phase), consistent with the observations. These results suggest that the flaring rate varies in an intrinsically different way at solar maximum by comparison with solar minimum. The implications of these results for a recent model for flare statistics (Craig, 2001) and more generally for our understanding of the flare process are discussed.     

Eclipse Observations of Compact Sources in the Outer Solar Corona

We report here on high angular resolution observations of solar noise storm sources at a frequency of 75 MHz. The data for the study were obtained at the Gauribidanur Radio Observatory (long.: 77°2612 E, lat.: 13°3612 N) about 100 km north of Bangalore, India, during the solar eclipse of 24 October 1995. Our main conclusion is that there are structures of angular size 2.5 arc min in the outer solar corona.     

Исследование устойгивости периодигеских движений в окрестности коллинеарных точек либрации

1937 - (, 1938). , , , , . , . . (, 1938), , . - (, 1938; Szebehely, 1967)., , . . - (, 1938), . — — . , , . , . . , . , , . . (, 1944). , .

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In 1937, the Celestial Mechanics and Cosmogony section of the Sternberg State Astronomical Institute undertook the task of evaluating the Gylden-Moulton hypothesis on the origin of the Gegenshein from the standpoint of celestial mechanics. That investigation, which the authors themselves considered preliminary, contains nonetheless a series of important results. For example, G. N. Duboshin showed that in the planar, circular, restricted three-body problem, periodic motion of finite amplitude in the neighborhood of a collinear libration point is unstable according to Lyapunov's criterion both in the proper and in the orbital sense. The latter result is incompatible with the above named hypothesis, and thus appears as one of the serious objections among the many known negative conclusions relative to the existence of the Gylden-Moulton cluster.Unfortunately, most of the specific problems which arose in the above named research have not been considered since. One of these, the problem of the stability of three-dimensional periodic orbits in the neighborhood of a collinear libration point is solved in the present paper, within the limits of the three-dimensional, circular, restricted, three-body problem. Major attention is given to the investigation of stability in the orbital sense, since in the proper sense all orbits are unstable according to Lyapunov theory. It is shown that in order to resolve the question of stability, it is sufficient to consider the equations in their variational form. Analysis of the roots of the corresponding characteristic equations determines the orbital stability of planar and three-dimensional solutions, which later can be confirmed by calculation of the characteristic exponents appearing in the periodic solutions of the N. A. Artemiev method. Finally, the possibility of conditional stability in the linear approximation is proved.

     

Об устойчивости лагранжевых решений пространственной эллиптической задачи трех тел

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Stability of the librational triangular points of the three-dimensional elliptic restricted three-body problem is studied. The problem is solved in the non-linear statement at the small values of eccentricity.For all values ofe, , besides ones which correspond to the resonances of the third and the fourth order the librational points are stable taking into account the terms up to the fourth order in the normal form of the Hamiltonian function of the perturbed motion.At sufficiently smalle and the non-stability in sense of Liapunov has been proved. The approximate equations of the boundary of the stability area in the planee, has been obtained. The cause of the non-stability is an equality of the rotational period of the principal attracting masses in the elliptic orbit and the period of oscillation of indefinitely small mass along the direction perpendicular to the plane of their motion.

     

Transformation of the absolute solar radiation data into the ‘International Practical Temperature Scale of 1968’

Corrections are given which transform the Tables of the solar radiation data (Labs and Neckel, 1968) into the International Practical Temperature Scale of 1968. Additionally, for the adjustment of the data of the true continuum and the corresponding line blanketing as well, the veiled line effect mentioned first by Carbon et al. (1968), but studied in more detail by Holweger (1970a), has been considered also.The corresponding corrections of the solar irradiance result in an improved value of the spectrophotometric solar constant: S = 1.947 cal cm^-2 min^-1 or 0.1358 W cm^-2. Two Tables presenting the highest (window-) intensities and the corrected irradiance data have been added.     

AN ‘EXTENDED SOLAR CYCLE’ AS OBSERVED IN Fe XIV

Investigation of the behavior of coronal intensity above the limb in Fexiv emission (530.3 nm) obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak over the last 23 years has resulted in the confirmation of a second set of zones of solar activity at high latitudes, separate from the Main Activity Zones (MAZ). Localized high-latitude intensity maxima, which I will call High-latitude Emission Features (HEF), are observed at 0.15 solar radii above the limb throughout the solar cycle. They persist long enough at a given latitude to be visible in long-term (e.g., annual) averages. I identify two types of HEF. Poleward-moving HEF, which may be identified with the Rush to the Poles phenomenon seen in polar-crown prominences, were first seen to appear in this investigation near latitude 60° in 1978. In 1979 equatorward-moving HEF branched off from the poleward-moving HEF (which continued on to reach the pole in 1980) at a latitude of 70° to 80°. They evolved approximately parallel to the MAZ. Near solar minimum, these HEF evolved into the MAZ of cycle 22, and the emission continues its path towards the equator, where it should disappear soon.Currently, it is clear that the pattern seen earlier is repeating. The poleward-moving HEF became apparent near the beginning of 1988 near 50° to 60° latitude. The northern poleward-moving HEF reached the pole and disappeared in 1990. The southern poleward-moving HEF moved more slowly, reaching the pole and disappearing in 1991. The equatorward-moving HEF that are the precursors of cycle 23 appeared in 1989 to 1990 and began to move approximately parallel to the MAZ of cycle 22. Based on inferences from previous cycles, we can expect these HEF to continue to the equator, with emission ceasing there near 2009. These recent observations increase the evidence for an extended solar cycle that begins every 11 years but lasts for approximately 19–20 years.     

On the quality of resonant absorption as a coronal loop heating mechanism

The qualityQ of a resonance is defined as the ratio of the total energy contained in the system to the dissipation per driving cycle. Hence, a good quality resonance is one with little losses, i.e., little dissipation per driving cycle. However, for heating coronal plasmas by means of resonant absorption of waves, bad quality resonances are required. Here, the quality of the MHD resonances that occur when an inhomogeneous coronal loop is excited by incident waves is investigated for typical coronal loop parameter values in the frame work of linear, resistive MHD. It is shown that the resonances in coronal loops have bad quality and, hence, yield a lot of Ohmic heating per driving cycle compared to the total energy stored in the loop. As a consequence, the time scales of the heating process are relatively short and resonant absorption turns out to be a viable candidate for the heating of the magnetic loops observed in the solar corona.