2015年9月16日智利Mw 8.3级地震:海啸波从近场到远场的特征分析

On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield.     

2017年9月8日墨西哥沿岸Mw8.2级地震海啸观测数据分析与模拟

2017年9月8日4时49分（UTC）,墨西哥瓦哈卡州沿岸海域（15.21°N,93.64°W）发生M_w8.2级地震,震源深度30 km。强震在该海域引发海啸,海啸对震源附近数百千米范围内造成了严重影响。位于太平洋上的多个海啸监测网络捕捉到了海啸信号并详细记录了此次海啸的传播过程。本文选用了近场2个DART浮标和6个验潮站的水位数据,通过潮汐调和分析和滤波分离出海啸信号,对近场海啸特征值进行了统计分析,并采用小波变换分析方法进一步分析了海啸的波频特征。基于Okada弹性位错理论断层模型计算得到了强震引发的海底形变分布,并采用MOST海啸模式对本次海啸事件近场传播特征进行了模拟,模拟结果与观测吻合较好。最后,基于实测和模拟结果,详细分析了此次地震海啸的近场分布特征,发现除受海啸源的强度和几何分布特征影响外,近岸海啸波还主要受地形特征控制,在与特定地形相互作用后波幅产生放大效应,会进一步加剧海啸造成的灾害。     

2014年4月2日智利海啸数值模拟与分析

北京时间2014年4月2日智利北部近海发生8.2级地震。地震引发了海啸,南美智利、秘鲁等国沿岸的多个海洋站监测到了明显的海啸波动。文章利用国家海洋环境预报中心开发的CTSU海啸数值模式对这次智利海啸事件进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示距离震源最近的智利北部受灾严重,秘鲁以及智利南部等海域的海啸波相对较小。沿海站点的第一波海啸波的数值模拟曲线与实测曲线基本吻合。由于数值模型的理想化和近岸水深地形数据分辨率不够,后续海啸波部分模拟结果与实测值存在一定误差。     

1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟

建立了一个地震海啸数值模式,模式包含越洋海啸传播部分和近岸海啸变形部分,在越洋海啸传播部分中采用线性浅水方程,使用蛙跃格式求解,并且选择合适的空间步长与时间步长,使差分格式中产生的数值频散与包辛尼斯克方程中的物理频散一致,这样在不影响海啸数值计算精度的前提下,节省了计算机的机时与内存.在近岸海啸变形部分的计算中,考虑了非线性对流项与海底摩擦项.同时该模式采用了多重网格嵌套技术,提高了所关心地区的计算精度.利用这个地震海啸模式模拟了1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸,结果与观测记录较吻合.这个模型已用于我国沿海核电站可能最大地震海啸的数值计算.     

2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究

回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析

简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。     

“3.11”日本地震海啸及南海和琉球群岛假想地震海啸对福建近海影响的数值模拟

福建地处西北太平洋沿岸,在环太平洋地震带附近,是海啸灾害潜在风险区.＂3.11＂日本地震海啸,福建沿岸验潮站就监测到其海啸波.利用CTSU地震海啸数值模式,模拟了＂3.11＂日本地震海啸对福建近海的影响,模拟结果与实况较吻合.同时,利用该数值模式模拟分析了可能来自于琉球群岛和南海附近海域的地震海啸对福建近海的影响,分析表明,如果在琉球群岛海域（28.0°N,129.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4.5 h左右抵达福建北部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达2 m;如果在马尼拉海沟附近海域（17.5°N,119.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4 h左右抵达福建南部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达3 m,均会给福建沿海地区带来灾害性影响.为此,本文亦针对性提出了防范地震海啸的一些措施与建议,为福建省海洋防灾减灾提供参考.     

精细化地震海啸波流实时预警系统研究与应用

基于Okada模型和非线性浅水波模型,结合高精度多层嵌套网格针对我国浙江沿海的温州和台州地区建立了越洋–近海–局部的精细化地震海啸波流实时预警系统,近岸的分辨率为900 m。该预警系统包括了并行化的数值计算模块,基于Python 2D绘图库的计算结果可视化处理模块,以及通过Python语言将所有经过数值计算的图形与动画产品集成在一个网页上的产品集成模块。一旦地震发生,该系统可根据地震的震源参数信息在10 min内完成数值计算、可视化处理,以及产品集成。选取2011年日本东北9.0级地震海啸结合实测数值对该系统进行模拟验证,进一步应用该系统模拟计算了日本南海海槽和琉球海沟潜在极端海啸的影响规律。结果表明,该预警系统可有效地提高地震海啸实时预警的时效性和准确度,为海啸的预警、减灾,以及辅助决策提供科学依据。     

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.     

基于全和谐型浅水方程的有限体积海啸数值模型开发与应用

数值模拟作为海啸预报的主要研究方法在海啸预警中起着关键作用。本文采用Godunov格式的有限体积方法,使用MUSCL-Hancock格式,并利用HLLC Riemann近似求解器计算单元界面上的流体通量,建立了球坐标系下二阶精度的海啸数值模型。模型所基于的全和谐型浅水方程保证了数值的稳定性,而地形重构方法实现了干湿边界的精准模拟。本文模拟了2015年9月16日智利M_w8.3级地震海啸,通过与智利近岸14个测站和环太平洋20个DART浮标实测数据比较,验证了模型对实际越洋海啸模拟预报的能力。     

吕宋海峡M2内潮的三维数值模拟

A three-dimensional isopycnic-coordinate internal tidal model is employed to investigate the generation,propagation, vertical structure and energy conversion of M2 internal tides in the Luzon Strait(LS) with mooring observations. Simulated results, especially the tidal current amplitudes, agree well with observations,demonstrating the reasonability and accuracy of the model. Results indicate that M2 internal tides mainly propagate into three directions horizontally, i.e., eastward towards the western Pacific Ocean, westward towards the Dongsha Island and southwestward towards the South China Sea Basin. In the horizontal direction, tidal current amplitudes decrease as distance increases away from the LS; in the vertical direction, they show an obvious decreasing tendency with depth. Between the double ridges of the LS, a clockwise gyre of M2 baroclinic energy flux appears, which is caused by reflections of M2 internal tides at supercritical topographies, and resonance of M2 internal tides happens along 19.5° and 21.5°N due to the heights and separation distance of the double ridges. The total energy conversion in the LS is about 14.20 GW.     

渤海、黄海、东海M2潮汐潮流的三维数值模拟

利用建立的一种新的半隐半显三维数值格式,将渤海、黄海、东海作为一个整体,采用球面坐标系下的三维潮波方程组,考虑了引潮力的作用,数值模拟了渤海、黄海、东海的M₂分潮的潮汐与潮流,结果较好地体现了渤海、黄海、东海M₂分潮的特征.通过比较65个验潮站的实测值与计算值,所得计算结果的振幅差平均为6.4cm,相角差为6.1°,计算与实测符合良好.本文给出的问潮图与Fang于1986年给出的实测占数值综合结果基本一致.对选取的47个测流站,比较了各层潮流调和常数Ucosζ、Usinζ、Vcosη、Vsinη的计算值与实测值的偏差,偏差绝对值的平均在2.6～4.9cm/s之间.并比较分析了潮流的垂直结构,所得结果与实测符合较好.首次揭示出回流点的水平位置不随深度变化这一特性.最后给出了M₂分潮的潮能消耗.     

An improved model for the calculation of CO2 solubility in aqueous solutions containing Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, and SO4

An improved model is presented for the calculation of the solubility of carbon dioxide in aqueous solutions containing Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, and SO₄²⁻ in a wide temperature–pressure–ionic strength range (from 273 to 533 K, from 0 to 2000 bar, and from 0 to 4.5 molality of salts) with experimental accuracy. The improvements over the previous model [Duan, Z. and Sun, R., 2003. An improved model calculating CO₂ solubility in pure water and aqueous NaCl solutions from 273 to 533K and from 0 to 2000 bar. Chemical Geology, 193: 257–271] include: (1) By developing a non-iterative equation to replace the original equation of state in the calculation of CO₂ fugacity coefficients, the new model is at least twenty times computationally faster and can be easily adapted to numerical reaction-flow simulator for such applications as CO₂ sequestration and (2) By fitting to the new solubility data, the new model improved the accuracy below 288 K from 6% to about 3% of uncertainty but still retains the high accuracy of the original model above 288 K. We comprehensively evaluate all experimental CO₂ solubility data. Compared with these data, this model not only reproduces all the reliable data used for the parameterization but also predicts the data that were not used in the parameterization. In order to facilitate the application to CO₂ sequestration, we also predicted CO₂ solubility in seawater at two-phase coexistence (vapor–liquid or liquid–liquid) and at three-phase coexistence (CO₂ hydrate–liquid water–vapor CO₂ [or liquid CO₂]). The improved model is programmed and can be downloaded from the website http://www.geochem-model.org/programs.htm.