台风“莫拉克”降水观测与云物理特征的模拟研究

为了研究云中微物理量与台风降水的关系,选取0908号台风"莫拉克"作为个例,利用中国自主研发的全球区域同化预报系统对台风引起的暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。该模式系统中包含有详细的云微物理过程。结合TRMM卫星资料、MODIS云顶温度资料、FY-2卫星云图以及常规地面观测等资料与模式结果进行对比分析。分析结果表明,此次强降水主要发生在福建大部分地区以及浙江东南部地区,模拟6小时累积降水最大值超过90m,模式对此次暴雨的雨带位置及其走向都有较好的模拟。台风中云微物理量的垂直分布基本可以分为3层,由冰晶与雪组成的冰相层,一般位于100～400hPa;由云水和雨水组成的液相层,一般位于600hPa之下,以及由霰与云水、雨水形成的混合层,主要分布在400～600hPa。霰在暖区的融化以及云水、雨水的碰并是降水的主要来源。     

Effects of forest gaps on some microclimate variables in Castanopsis kawakamii natural forest

The objective of this study was to understand the effects of forest gap and variations in different seasons, gap size, locations and diurnal variations on forest microclimate and soil water content. Spatial and temporal distribution features of air temperature (TA ), soil temperature (TS ), relative humidity (h) and soil water content (Ψ) were measured in Castanopsis kawakamii natural forest gaps created by a severe typhoon or fallen dead trees. The results showed that: (1) the variations of TA , h, and TS in four seasons were extremely significant. The variations of Ψ in four seasons were extremely significant except for those between spring and summer. (2) The diurnal variations of TA and T S were expressed with a single peak curve. The diurnal variations of h and Ψ presented a high-low-high trend. (3) The variations of TA , h, and TS were extremely significant among the large, medium and small gaps in C. kawakamii natural forest. Medium gaps had the highest TA and the lowest h while small gaps were just contrary to medium gaps. The variations of Ψ were extremely significant for large, medium and small gaps except those between the medium and large gaps. (4) The TA , h, TS and Ψ were decreased from the gap center, canopy gap, expanded gap to understory. These results will help further our understanding of the abiotic and consequent biotic responses to gaps in the mid-subtropical broadleaved forests, which also provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and population restoration of C. kawakamii natural forest.     

Diurnal and seasonal variation of the elevation gradient of air temperature in the northern flank of the western Qinling Mountain range,China

The typically sparse or lacking distribution of meteorological stations in mountainous areas inadequately resolves temperature elevation variability. This study presented the diurnal and seasonal variations of the elevation gradient of air temperature in the northern flank of the western Qinling Mountain range,which has not been thoroughly evaluated. The measurements were conducted at 9 different elevations between 1710 and 2500 m from August 2014 to August 2015 with HOBO Data loggers. The results showed that the annual temperature lapse rates(TLRs) for Tmean,Tmin and Tmax were 0.45?C/100 m,0.44?C/100 m and 0.40?C/100 m,respectively,which are substantially smaller than the often used value of 0.60°C/100 m to 0.65°C/100 m. The TLRs showed no obvious seasonal variations,except for the maximum temperature lapse rate,which was steeper in winter and shallower in spring. Additionally,the TLRs showed significant diurnal variations,with the steepest TLR in forenoon and the shallowest in early morning or late-afternoon,and the TLRs changed more severely during the daytime than night time. The accumulated temperature above 0°C,5°C and 10°C(AT0,AT5 and AT10) decreased at a lapse rate of 112.8?C days/100 m,104.5?C days/100 m and 137.0?C days/100 m,respectively. The monthly and annual mean diurnal range of temperatures(MDRT and ADRT) demonstrated unimodal curves along the elevation gradients,while the annual range of temperature(ART) showed no significant elevation differences. Our results strongly suggest that the extrapolated regional TLR may not be a good representative for an individual mountainside,in particular,where there are only sparse meteorological stations at high elevations.     

Chemical characteristics and environmental significance of fresh snow deposition on Urumqi Glacier No. 1 of Tianshan Mountains, China

Ice and snow chemistry of alpine glaciers is crucial for the research of regional atmospheric environment change. Fresh snow samples were weekly collected from Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains, Xin- jiang, China, and the chemical characteristics and seasonal variations of major ions, mineral dust, δ18O and trace metals were measured. Results show that the concentrations of major ions in the snow are Ca2+ SO42- NH4+ NO3- Cl- Na+ Mg2+ K+, in which Ca2+ is the dominant cation, and SO42-is the dominant anion. All major ions have close positive correlations with each other except NO3-. δ18O shows positive correlation with air temperature change during the study period. Mineral dust particle and major ionic concentrations in fresh snow have obvious seasonal change, with high concentration in spring but low concentration in summer and autumn, which indicates that the chemical mass input from Asian dust activity to snow is very significant. Temporal changes of trace metals in fresh snow, e.g., Cd, Pb, Zn, Al, Fe, have shown that human-induced pollution of central Asian region also has large contribution to the snow chemistry on alpine glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.     

Effects of Climatic Change on Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland, Northeast China

1 Introduction As a result of persistent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1950s, global and regional climate features, such as temperature and precipitation, have ob- viously changed (Yu et al., 2002). The General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide potential climate scenarios by studying the effects of carbon dioxide on the temperature. Tickell (1993) predicted that the mean temperature will increase by 1℃ till the year 2050 and by 3℃ at the end of the 22th century. S…     

Carbon budget of bastard halibut<Emphasis Type="Italic">Paralichthys olivaceus</Emphasis> in relation to body weight and temperature

The effects of body weight and temperature on the carbon budget of the juvenile bastard halibut ,Paralichthys olivaceus ,were studied at temperature 13.5,18,21.5 and 24℃,respectively.The carbon intake,faecal and growth carbon were measured ,and the carbon respiration was calculated using the carbon budget equation (Cc=Gc Fc Rc),The combined relationship between different components of the carbon budgent,body weight and temperature could be described by regression equations:Cc=1.0206 W^0.8126E^0.1483T;Gc=0.0042w^1.4096(-5.11 T^3 285.90T^2-5173.72T 30314.03);Fc=0.0485W^0.7711e^0.1624T;Uc=1.4333W^0.6715e^0.1487t,Body weight had no significant effect on the carbon absorption efficiency and the conversion efficiency.     

Adjusting precipitation measurements from the TRwS204 automatic weighing gauge in the Qilian Mountains,China

With the popularity of the automatic precipitation gauges in national weather stations, testing their performance and adjusting their measurements are top priorities. Additionally, because different climatic conditions may have different effects on the performance of the precipitation gauges, it is also necessary to test the gauges in different areas. This study mainly analyzed precipitation measurements from the single-Alter-shielded TRwS204 automatic weighing gauge (TRwS_SA) relative to the adjusted manual measurements (reference precipitation) from the Chinese standard precipitation gauge in a double-fence wind shield (CSPG_DF) in the Hulu watershed in the Qilian Mountains, China. The measurements were compared over the period from August 2014 to July 2017, and the transfer function derived from the work by Kochendorfer et al. (2017a) for correcting wind-induced losses was applied to the TRwS_SA measurements. The results show that the average loss of TRwS_SA measurements relative to the reference precipitation decreased from 0.55 mm (10.7%) to 0.51 mm (9.9%) for rainfall events, from 0.35 mm (8.5%) to 0.22 mm (5.3%) for sleet events, and from 0.49 mm (18.9%) to 0.33 mm (12.7%) for snowfall events after adjustment. The uncorrected large biases of TRwS_SA measurements are considered to be mainly caused by specific errors of TRwS_SA, different gauge orifice area and random errors. These types of errors must be considered when comparing precipitation measurements for different gauge types, especially in the mountains.     

Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim,India

Estimation of evapotranspiration(ET) for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle.The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation(HARG) with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization(FAO)Penman Monteith(PM) method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim,India.The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET_0 by 0.35 mm day~(-1) whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model.In addition,this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site.Nonparametric Mann-Kendall(MK) test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trendof eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration(ET_0) for the period of 1985-2009.Trend of ET_0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation.The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing(p ≤ 0.05) trend represented by higher Z-values,through MK test,for net radiation(Rn),maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin),especially in the first months of the year.Whereas,significant(0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05) decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit(VPD)and precipitation(P) is observed throughout the year.Declining trend in sunshine duration,VPD and ET_0 is found in spring(March- May) and monsoon(June –November) season.The result displays significant(0.01≤ p ≤ 0.05) decreasing ET_0 trend between(June- December) except in July,exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station.Overall,the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET_0 and other climaticvariables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices,in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.     

1011号台风“凡亚比”粤西暴雨二次加强过程的分析

为了能够深入了解1011号台风"凡亚比"粤西暴雨过程发生发展机制,采用天气学诊断方法、Ncep1°×1°再分析资料和观测降水资料对凡亚比登陆后在广东西部地区造成的两次暴雨过程进行了研究。通过初步诊断分析得到以下结论:粤西暴雨二次增强的主要原因是强冷空气侵入和水汽输送增加,二次增强过程偏南风主导的水汽条件造成了暴雨增强。假相当位温的垂直剖面显示暴雨主要发生在等值线密集陡峭的区域,等值线的斜率增加对暴雨二次增强有指示作用。湿位涡在暴雨区为上正下负的垂直分布形式,对流层上层高值位涡向下传递,高层干冷空气与低层暖湿气流交汇促使降水增加。     

Magnitude and forming factors of mass elevation effect on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Mass elevation effect(MEE) refers to the thermal effect of huge mountains or plateaus, which causes the tendency for temperature-related montane landscape limits to occur at higher elevations in the inner massifs than on their outer margins. MEE has been widely identified in all large mountains, but how it could be measured and what its main forming-factors are still remain open. This paper, supposing that the local mountain base elevation(MBE) is the main factor of MEE, takes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) as the study area, defines MEE as the temperature difference(ΔT) between the inner and outer parts of mountain massifs, identifies the main forming factors, and analyzes their contributions to MEE. A total of 73 mountain bases were identified, ranging from 708 m to 5081 m and increasing from the edges to the central parts of the plateau. Climate data(1981–2010) from 134 meteorological stations were used to acquire ΔT by comparing near-surface air temperature on the main plateau with the free-air temperature at the same altitude and similar latitude outside of the plateau. The ΔT for the warmest month is averagely 6.15℃, over 12℃ at Lhatse and Baxoi. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to simulate MEE based on three variables(latitude, annual mean precipitation and MBE), which are all significantly correlated to ΔT. The model could explain 67.3% of MEE variation, and the contribution rates of three independent variables to MEE are 35.29%, 22.69% and 42.02%, respectively. This confirms that MBE is the main factor of MEE. The intensive MEE of the QTP pushes the 10℃ isotherm of the warmest month mean temperature 1300–2000 m higher in the main plateau than in the outer regions, leading the occurrence of the highest timberline(4900 m) and the highest snowline(6200 m) of the Northern Hemisphere in the southeast and southwest of the plateau, respectively.     

Characterizing spatial patterns of precipitation based on corrected TRMM 3B43 data over the mid Tianshan Mountains of China

The poor distribution of meteorological stations results in a limited understanding of the precipitation pattern in the Tianshan Mountains. The spatial patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains were characterized based on the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data. By comparing satellite estimates with observed data, it shows that TRMM 3B43 data underestimate the precipitation in mountain region. Regression models were developed to improve the TRMM 3B43 data, using geographic location and topographic variables extracted from DEM using GIS technology. The explained variance in observed precipitation was improved from 64% (from TRMM 3B43 products alone) to over 82% and the bias reduced by over 30% when location and topographic variables were added. We recalculated all the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation grids for the period 1998 to 2009 using the best regression models, and then studied the variation patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains. The results are well explained by a general understanding of the patterns of precipitation and orographic effects. This indicated that the Tianshan Mountains strongly influences the amount and distribution of precipitation in the region. This is highlighted by the confinement of the precipitation maxima to the windward (northern slope). And complex vertical changes in the provenance and distribution of precipitation, like that a negative increasing rate of precipitation in the vertical direction exists in the north but does not in south. The results have also revealed large gradients and different patterns in seasonal precipitation that are not simply related to elevation, the distribution of precipitation may also be affected by other seasonal factors such as the sources of moist air, wind direction and temperature.     

Implications of climate change on streamflow of a snow-fed river system of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11°C/decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7°C/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamflow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5% 40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.     

Spatio-temporal variation of land surface temperature and temperature lapse rate over mountainous Kashmir Himalaya

In this study, Land Surface Temperature(LST) and its lapse rate over the mountainous Kashmir Himalaya was estimated using MODIS data and correlated with the observed in-situ air temperature(Tair) data. Comparison between the MODIS LST and Tair showed a close agreement with the maximum error of the estimate ±1°C and the correlation coefficient 0.90. Analysis of the LST data from 2002-2012 showed an increasing trend at all the selected locations except at a site located in the southeastern part of Kashmir valley. Using the GTOPO30 DEM, MODIS LST data was used to estimate the actual temperature lapse rate(ATLR) along various transects across Kashmir Himalaya, which showed significant variations in space and time ranging from 0.3°C to 1.2°C per 100 m altitude change. This observation is at variance with the standard temperature lapse rate(STLR) of 0.65°C used universally in most of the hydrological and other land surface models. Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) was used to determine the efficacy of using the ATLR for simulating the stream flows in one of the glaciated and snow-covered watersheds in Kashmir. The use of ATLR in the SRM model improved the R2 between the observed and predicted streamflows from 0.92 to 0.97.It is hoped that the operational use of satellite-derived LST and ATLR shall improve the understanding and quantification of various processes related to climate, hydrology and ecosystem in the mountainous and data-scarce Himalaya where the use of temperature and ATLR are critical parameters for understanding various land surface and climate processes.     

An Assessment of Snow Cover Duration Variability Among Three Basins of Songhua River in Northeast China Using Binary Decision Tree

The dynamics of snow cover differs greatly from basin to basin in the Songhua River of Northeast China, which is attributable to the differences in the topographic shift as well as changes in the vegetation and climate since the hydrological year (HY) 2003. Daily and flexible multi-day combinations from the HY 2003 to 2014 were produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from Terra and Aqua remote sensing satellites for the snow cover products in the three basins including the Nenjiang River Basin (NJ), Downstream Songhua River Basin (SD) and Upstream Songhua River Basin (SU). Snow cover duration (SCD) was derived from flexible multiday combination each year. The results showed that SCD was significantly associated with elevation, and higher SCD values were found out in the mountainous areas. Further, the average SCDs of NJ, SU and SD basins were 69.43, 98.14 and 88.84 d with an annual growth of 1.36, 2.04 and 2.71 d, respectively. Binary decision tree was used to analyze the nonlinear relationships between SCD and six impact factors, which were successfully applied to simulate the spatial distribution of depth and water equivalent of snow. The impact factors included three topographic factors (elevation, aspect and slope), two climatic factors (precipitation and air temperature) and one vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI). By treating yearly SCD values as dependent variables and six climatic factors as independent variables, six binary decision trees were built through the combination classification and regression tree (CART) with and without the consideration of climate effect. The results from the model show that elevation, precipitation and air temperature are the three most influential factors, among which air temperature is the most important and ranks first in two of the three studied basins. It is suggested that SCD in the mountainous areas might be more sensitive to climate warming, since precipitation and air temperature are the major factors controlling the persistence of snow cover in the mountainous areas.     

Snow water content estimation from measured snow temperature

The vertical temperature profiles of snow and sea ice have been measured in the Arctic during the 2nd Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in 2003(CHINARE2003).The high-resolution temperature profile in snow is solved by one-dimensional heat transfer equation.The effective heat diffusivity,internal heat sources are identified.The internal heat source refers to the penetrated solar radiation which usually warms the lower part of the snow layer in summer.By temperature gradient analysis,the zero level can be clarified quantitatively as the boundary of the dry and wet snow.According to the in situ time series of vertical temperature profile,the time series of water content in snow is obtained based on an evaluation method of snow water content associated with the snow and ice physical parameters.The relationship of snow water content and snow temperature and temporal-spatial distribution of snow water content are presented     

The characteristics and vertical zone spectrum of natural disasters in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

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Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram,Pakistan

The multi-model assessment of glaciohydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change. This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge. This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB) under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM) and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM). Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988-1992 and 1993-1997. Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor, temperature, and precipitation gradients. The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment. However, MPDDM estimated 68% of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon, while GDM estimated 14% rain and baseflow contribution. Likewise, MPDDM calculated 32%, and GDM generated 86% of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt. MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation, respectively. Similarly, GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period. The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB, and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability. Based on the sensitivity analysis, both models' outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature. Furthermore, compared to MPDDM, GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5, mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change. The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components, unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM. The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.     

Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R~2=0.55 vs.R~2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.     

Oblique wave motion over multiple submerged porous bars near a vertical wall

This study examines oblique wave motion over multiple submerged porous bars in front of a vertical wall. Based on linear potential theory, an analytical solution for the present problem is developed using matched eigenfunction expansions. A complex dispersion relation is adopted to describe the wave elevation and energy dissipation over submerged porous bars. In the analytical solution, no limitations on the bar number, bar size, and spacing between adjacent bars are set. The convergence of the analytical solution is satisfactory, and the correctness of the analytical solution is confirmed by an independently developed multi-domain BEM (boundary element method) solution. Numerical examples are presented to examine the reflection and transmission coefficients of porous bars, C _R and C _T , respectively, for engineering applications. The calculation results show that when the sum of widths for all the porous bars is fixed, increasing the bar number can significantly improve the sheltering function of the bars. Increasing the bar height can cause more wave energy dissipation and lower C _R and C _T . The spacing between adjacent bars and the spacing between the last bar and the vertical wall are the key parameters affecting C _R and C _T . The proposed analytical method may be used to analyze the hydrodynamic performance of submerged porous bars in preliminary engineering designs.