Application of CEDA and ASPIC computer packages to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea

Surplus-production models are widely used in fish stock assessment and fisheries management due to their simplicity and lower data demands than age-structured models such as Virtual Population Analysis. The CEDA (catch-effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a surplus-production model incorporating covariates) computer packages are data-fitting or parameter estimation tools that have been developed to analyze catch-and-effort data using non-equilibrium surplus production models. We applied CEDA and ASPIC to the hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea. Both packages produced robust results and yielded similar estimates. In CEDA, the Schaefer surplus production model with log-normal error assumption produced results close to those of ASPIC. CEDA is sensitive to the choice of initial proportion, while ASPIC is not. However, CEDA produced higher R 2 values than ASPIC.     

Performance comparison between logistic and generalized surplus-production models applied to the Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistan

The catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistani waters were used to investigate the performance of two closely related stock assessment models: logistic and generalized surplus-production models. Compared with the generalized production model, the logistic model produced more reasonable estimates for parameters such as maximum sustainable yield. The Akaike’s Information Criterion values estimated at 4.265 and -51.152 respectively by the logistic and generalized models. Simulation analyses of the S. sihama fishery showed that the estimated and observed abundance indices for the logistic model were closer than those for the generalized production model. Standardized residuals were distributed closer for logistic model, but exhibited a slightly increasing trend for the generalized model. Statistical outliers were seen in 1989 and 1993 for the logistic model, and in 1981 and 1999 for the generalized model. Simulated results revealed that the logistic estimates were close to the true value for low CVs (coefficients of variation) but widely dispersed for high CVs. In contrast, the generalized model estimates were loose for all CV levels. The estimated production model curve parameter was not reasonable at all the tested levels of white noise. With the increase in white noise R2 for the catch per unit effort decreased. Therefore, we conclude that the logistic model performs more reasonably than the generalized production model.     

超导重力观测噪声水平的极大似然估计

利用极大似然估计和3种互不相关的噪声（白噪声,闪烁噪声,游走噪声）模型及其组合,对SG-053超导重力仪产出的重力固体潮整时值残差时间序列进行分析,得出残差时间序列中明显存在彩色噪声(闪烁噪声、游走噪声)：白噪声1.40×10 ^-8 ms ^-2,闪烁噪声1.85× 10 ^-8 ms ^-2,游走噪声为2.40×10 ^-8 ms ^-2。该方法估计的白噪声水平与潮汐分析方法得出的结果一致。     

Inhibition of Aspergillus parasiticus and cancer cells by marine actinomycete strains

Ten actinomycete strains isolated from the Yellow Sea off China's coasts were identified as belonging to two genera by 16 S r DNA phylogenetic analysis: Streptomyces and Nocardiopsis. Six Streptomyces strains(MA10, 2SHXF01-3, MA35, MA05-2, MA05-2-1 and MA08-1) and one Nocardiopsis strain(MA03) were predicted to have the potential to produce aromatic polyketides based on the analysis of the KSα(ketoacyl-synthase) gene in the type II PKS(polyketides synthase) gene cluster. Four strains(MA03, MA01, MA10 and MA05-2) exhibited significant inhibitory effects on mycelia growth(inhibition rate 50%) and subsequent aflatoxin production(inhibition rate 75%) of the mutant aflatoxigenic Aspergillus parasiticus NFRI-95. The ethyl acetate extracts of the broth of these four strains displayed significant inhibitory effects on mycelia growth, and the IC50 values were calculated(MA03: 0.275 mg m L-1, MA01: 0.106 mg m L-1, MA10: 1.345 mg m L-1 and MA05-2: 1.362 mg m L-1). Five strains(2SHXF01-3, MA03, MA05-2, MA01 and MA08-1) were selected based on their high cytotoxic activities. The ethyl acetate extract of the Nocardiopsis strain MA03 was particularly noted for its high antitumor activity against human carcinomas of the cervix(He La), lung(A549), kidney(Caki-1) and liver(Hep G2)(IC50: 2.890, 1.981, 3.032 and 2.603 μg m L-1, respectively). The extract also remarkably inhibited colony formation of He La cells at an extremely low concentration(0.5 μg m L-1). This study highlights that marine-derived actinomycetes are a huge resource of compounds for the biological control of aflatoxin contamination and the development of novel drugs for human carcinomas.     

Impacts of distorted fishery statistical data on assessments of three surplus production models

We evaluated the effect of various error sources in fishery harvest/effort data on the maximum sustainable yield(MSY) and corresponding fishing effort(EMSY) using Monte Carlo simulation analyses.A high coefficient of variation(CV) of the catch and effort values biased the estimates of MSY and EMSY.Thus,the state of the fisheries resource and its exploitation was overestimated.We compared the effect using three surplus production models,Hilborn-Waters(H-W),Schnute,and Prager models.The estimates generated us...     

不同系统间偏差模型对GPS/BDS/Galileo精密单点定位的影响

基于双频非组合PPP模型,采用常量模型、白噪声模型和随机游走模型对ISB参数进行处理,利用7个MGEX测站10 d的数据进行静态和仿动态实验,并分析3种模型的收敛时间和定位精度。结果表明,在收敛时间方面,随机游走模型和白噪声模型效果一致,总体优于常量模型,静态和仿动态下分别提升15.4%和29.4%;在定位精度方面,随机游走模型和白噪声模型效果相当,较常量模型在E、U方向上精度提升最为明显,静态下E和U方向的精度分别提升约77.7%和32.2%,在仿动态定位中E和U方向的精度分别提升约66%和43.5%。     

Spatio-temporal Variation of Soil Respiration and Its Driving Factors in Semi-arid Regions of North China

Soil respiration (SR) is the second-largest flux in ecosystem carbon cycling. Due to the large spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors, SR varied among different vegetation types, thereby impeding accurate estimation of CO₂ emissions via SR. However, studies on spatio-temporal variation of SR are still scarce for semi-arid regions of North China. In this study, we conducted 12-month SR measurements in six land-use types, including two secondary forests (Populus tomentosa (PT) and Robinia pseudoacacia (RP)), three artificial plantations (Armeniaca sibirica (AS), Punica granatum (PG) and Ziziphus jujuba (ZJ)) and one natural grassland (GR), to quantify spatio-temporal variation of SR and distinguish its controlling factors. Results indicated that SR exhibited distinct seasonal patterns for the six sites. Soil respiration peaked in August 2012 and bottomed in April 2013. The temporal coefficient of variation (CV) of SR for the six sites ranged from 76.98% to 94.08%, while the spatial CV of SR ranged from 20.28% to 72.97% across the 12-month measurement. Soil temperature and soil moisture were the major controlling factors of temporal variation of SR in the six sites, while spatial variation in SR was mainly caused by the differences in soil total nitrogen (STN), soil organic carbon (SOC), net photosynthesis rate, and fine root biomass. Our results show that the annual average SR and Q₁₀ (temperature sensitivity of soil respiration) values tended to decrease from secondary forests and grassland to plantations, indicating that the conversion of natural ecosystems to man-made ecosystems may reduce CO₂ emissions and SR temperature sensitivity. Due to the high spatio-temporal variation of SR in our study area, care should be taken when converting secondary forests and grassland to plantations from the point view of accurately quantifying CO₂ emissions via SR at regional scales.     

GNSS变形监测网短基线时间序列噪声特性分析

利用时间跨度为5 a的GNSS短基线时间序列对噪声特性进行分析,发现长周期噪声分量(随机游走噪声)。选取最优噪声模型,评估不同噪声模型对测站周期振幅和线性速度估值的影响。结果表明,短基线时间序列中有色噪声应顾及闪烁噪声和随机游走噪声,对于表现出随机游走噪声的分量,可能与测站的真实运动有关;假设只有白噪声时求得的速度估值与最优噪声模型下求得的速度估值存在0.4～0.6 mm/a的偏差,对周期振幅的影响可以忽略。     

Analyses of Trawling Track and Fishing Activity Based on the Data of Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)：A Case Study of the Single Otter Trawl Vessels in the Zhoushan Fishing Ground

The original purpose of Vessel Monitoring System(VMS) is for enforcement and control of vessel sailing. With the application of VMS in fishing vessels, more and more population dynamic studies have used VMS data to improve the accuracy of fisheries stock assessment. In this paper, we simulated the trawl trajectory under different time intervals using the cubic Hermite spline(c Hs) interpolation method based on the VMS data of 8 single otter trawl vessels(totally 36000 data items) fishing in Zhoushan fishing ground from September 2012 to December 2012, and selected the appropriate time interval. We then determined vessels’ activities(fishing or non-fishing) by comparing VMS speed data with the corresponding speeds from logbooks. The results showed that the error of simulated trajectory greatly increased with the increase of time intervals of VMS data when they were longer than 30 minutes. Comparing the speeds from VMS with those from the corresponding logbooks, we found that the vessels’ speeds were between 2.5 kn and 5.0 kn in fishing. The c Hs interpolation method is a new choice for improving the accuracy of estimation of sailing trajectory, and the VMS can be used to determine the vessels’ activities with the analysis of their trajectories and speeds. Therefore, when the fishery information is limited, VMS can be one of the important data sources for fisheries stock assessment, and more attention should be paid to its construction and application to fisheries stock assessment and management.     

Distribution and migration of the common squidTodarodes pacificus in the Yellow Sea

Study of the distribution and migration of the common squid,Todarodes pacificus Steenstrup,basedon the index of important fishing ground(P) and fisheries statistics on the Yellow Sea and northern EastChina Sea during 1980—1991 showed that:1.Its catch in the fishing period(June to November) is 91.77% of the annual yield.The fishingground distributes over the northem and middle Yel1ow Sea and adjacent area of the Changjiang Estuary.2. It over-winters in the northem East China Sea and waters adjacent to Goto Island from De-cember to February and spawns in waters near Haijiao Is1and and west of Kyushu. The main stock mi-grates along 123°30′E to the ChangJiang Estuary, Haizhou Bay. offsea from Shidao to Qingdao,mideastern Yellow Sea, and offsea Weihai and Haiyang Island succesively for feeding after April. The sur-plus stock migrates again to the wintering ground in December.3.The favorable feeding temperature is 6-23℃(optimum of l3-20℃ in the Changjiang Estua-ry and 7-13℃ in the northern and middle Yel     

Fitting and evaluation of height-diameter models for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus japonica</Emphasis> in La Trinidad,Benguet, Philippines

The study was conducted to develop height-diameter at breast height (HT-DBH) models for Alnus japonica in La Trinidad, Benguet, Philippines and evaluate their predictive capability. The six widely used nonlinear growth models that were selected in this study were the Chapman-Richards, Schnute, Modified logistic, Korf/Lundqvist, Weibull and Exponential. A total of 208 Alnus japonica trees were measured using standard diameter tape for DBH (1.3 m above the ground) and Vertex and transponder was used for the total height measurement. The performance of the developed models were evaluated using the fit statistics including coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias (ē), absolute mean difference (AMD), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The lack-of-fit statistics was also performed for further evaluation of the performance of the models. Based on the evaluation criteria, all six models were able to determine the DBH-height relationships and fitted the data well. Using the rank analysis, the Weibull HT-DBH model had the best performance among the six commonly used nonlinear growth models. The results of this study will help forest managers especially in La Trinidad, Benguet to easily predict the total height using the Weibull model for Alnus japonica utilizing the DBH as the predicting variable.     

Comparison of artificial neural networks,geographically weighted regression and Cokriging methods for predicting the spatial distribution of soil macronutrients (N,P, and K)

Soil macronutrients(i.e. nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K)) are important soils components and knowing the spatial distribution of these parameters are necessary at precision agriculture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of different methods such as artificial neural networks(ANN) and two geostatistical methods(geographically weighted regression(GWR) and cokriging(CK)) to estimate N, P and K contents. For this purpose, soil samples were taken from topsoil(0–30 cm) at 106 points and analyzed for their chemical and physical parameters. These data were divided into calibration(n = 84) and validation(n = 22). Chemical and physical variables including clay, p H and organic carbon(OC) were used as auxiliary soil variables to estimate the N, P and K contents. Results showed that the ANN model(with coefficient of determination R~2 = 0.922 and root mean square error RMSE = 0.0079%) was more accurate compared to the CK model(with R~2 = 0.612 and RMSE = 0.0094%), and the GWR model(with R~2 = 0.872 and RMSE = 0.0089%) to estimate the N variable. The ANN model estimated the P with the RMSE of 3.630 ppm, which was respectively 28.93% and 20.00% less than the RMSE of 4.680 ppm and 4.357 ppm from the CK and GWR models. The estimated K by CK, GWR and ANN models have the RMSE of 76.794 ppm, 75.790 ppm and 52.484 ppm. Results indicated that the performance of the CK model for estimation of macro nutrients(N, P and K) was slightly lower than the GWR model. Also, the accuracy of the ANN model was higher than CK and GWR models, which proved to be more effective and reliable methods for estimating macro nutrients.     

中国沿海海洋站GNSS坐标时间序列噪声模型的建立与分析

选取中国沿海海洋站中与验潮室并址的22个GNSS基准站近9 a的观测资料,利用最大似然估计法分析各站时间序列的噪声特性,建立最优噪声模型;然后顾及有色噪声,利用最优噪声模型估计测站速度,并与纯白噪声模型和GLOBK获取的速度及误差进行对比分析。结果表明：1）沿海海洋站的GNSS时间序列均含有有色噪声,各分量的噪声特性不完全一致,E方向和U分量均以白噪声+闪烁噪声为主,N分量以白噪声+闪烁噪声和白噪声+一阶马尔科夫噪声+随机漫步噪声为主。2）全国沿海3个海区N、E分量的白噪声和闪烁噪声基本呈现越往南噪声越大的规律,南海海区U分量的白噪声和闪烁噪声最大。3）顾及有色噪声的速度中误差是仅考虑白噪声和GLOBK估计的速度中误差估计值的5～10倍,这种差异比内陆观测站的要大。4）在对海洋站GNSS时间序列进行速度分析时,为获取正确的速度值,应该先准确判断噪声的类型,再顾及有色噪声的影响估计测站速度。     

Optimal content and ratio of lysine to arginine in the diet of Pacific white shrimp, Litopenaeus vannamei

The optimal quantity of dietary lysine (Lys) and arginine (Arg), and the optimal ratio of dietary Lys to Arg for Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei were investigated. Coated Lys and Arg were added to a basal diet (37.99% crude protein and 7.28% crude lipid) to provide graded levels of Lys and Arg. The experimental diets contained three Lys levels (2.51%, 2.11%, and 1.70% of total diet), and three Arg levels (1.41%, 1.80%, and 2.21% of total diet) and all combinations of these levels were tested. Pacific white shrimp, with a mean weight of 3.62±0.1 g, were randomly distributed in 36 fiberglass tanks with 30 shrimp per tank and reared on the experimental diets for 50 days. After the feeding trial, the growth performance, survival, feed conversion rate (FCR), body composition and protease and lipase activities in the hepatopancreases of the experimental shrimps were determined. The results show that weight gain (WG), specific growth rate (SGR), FCR, body protein, body Lys and Arg content were significantly affected by dietary Lys and Arg (P <0.05) and improved when dietary Lys and Arg levels were 2.11% ～ 2.51% and 1.80%～2.21%, respectively. Protease and lipase activities in the hepatopancreases of the shrimps appeared higher when dietary Lys and Arg quantities were 2.11% ～2.51% and 1.80%～2.21%, although the difference was not statistically significant (P >0.05). Therefore, according to our results, the optimal Lys and Arg quantities in the diet of Pacific white shrimp, L. vannamei, were considered to be 2.11%–2.51% and 1.80%–2.21%, respectively, and the optimal ratio to be 1:0.88–1:1.05.     

Relationships of interannual variability between the equatorial pacific and tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) between the tropical Pacific (TP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOB) together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (cooling) takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an El Niño (La Niña) in almost all the models. In some models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5), positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models (e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES).     

���������CHAMP�������ָ��е�Ӧ��

??????????CHAMP?????????????????????????????н?????1???????????С?????LS??????????CHAMP?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????CHAMP??????????У???????????????????????????1?GFZ????????????1???? CHAMP????RSO????????????????????????20???????(5??100) m ²s ^-2??С??????????????LS????????????60??60???????????????????EIGEN??CG03C??EIGEN2???????б?????????????????????Ч?????????????????CHAMP????????????????????LS???????????????ε?EGM96??EIGEN1S??EIGEN2????     

Measurement of single-fish target strength in the South China Sea

We measured the target strength (TS) of three commercial fish species: whitespotted spinefoot (Siganus canaliculatus), black porgy (Acanthopagrus schlegelii), and creek red bream (Lutjanus argentimaculatus), in the South China Sea. The TS of caged or tethered fish (n=76 total) was measured using a Simrad EY60 portable scientific echosounder at 120 kHz. We evaluated the relationship between TS and total length (TL, cm) for the three species. This is the first attempt to use split-beam acoustics to measure single-fish TS in the South China Sea by Chinese researchers. Our results will improve the accuracy and precision of acoustic abundance estimates of commercially important species and further the development of underwater acoustic survey techniques in fisheries in the South China Sea.     

利用改进模拟退火算法反演甘肃兰州地区地幔转换带导电模型

地磁测深一维反演可以获得地磁台站下方地球深部电导率结构.将改进模拟退火算法应用于地磁测深数据的反演,并将基于反演过程中的所有优质解进行统计分析得到的期望值作为模型最优解.地磁测深合成数据的一维反演测试结果表明:对于无噪声的理论数据,传统模拟退火算法可以恢复出真实的电导率剖面;存在噪声时,相较传统模拟退火算法,改进模拟退...     

A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus alalunga</Emphasis>

A continuous time delay-diff erence model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes. The southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world. The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock. However, the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism. In this study, we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) species, which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery. It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) fishery. CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of (21 510 t, 23 118t). The catch in 2011 (24 100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio (F ₂₀₁₁/F _MSY) is higher than 1.0. The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock. The CTDDM treats the recruitment, the growth, and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.     

Maximum Sustainable Yield Estimates of Ladypees,Sillago sihama(Forsskl),Fishery in Pakistan Using the ASPIC and CEDA Packages

Using surplus production model packages of ASPIC(a stock-production model incorporating covariates) and CEDA(Catch effort data analysis),we analyzed the catch and effort data of Sillago sihama fishery in Pakistan.ASPIC estimates the pa-rameters of MSY(maximum sustainable yield),Fmsy(fishing mortality),q(catchability coefficient),K(carrying capacity or unexploited biomass) and B1/K(maximum sustainable yield over initial biomass).The estimated non-bootstrapped value of MSY based on logistic was 598 t and that based on the Fox model was 415 t,which showed that the Fox model estimation was more conservative than that with the logistic model.The R2 with the logistic model(0.702) is larger than that with the Fox model(0.541),which indicates a better fit.The coefficient of variation(cv) of the estimated MSY was about 0.3,except for a larger value 88.87 and a smaller value of 0.173.In contrast to the ASPIC results,the R2 with the Fox model(0.651-0.692) was larger than that with the Schaefer model(0.435-0.567),indicating a better fit.The key parameters of CEDA are:MSY,K,q,and r(intrinsic growth),and the three error assumptions in using the models are normal,log normal and gamma.Parameter estimates from the Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models were similar.The MSY estimations from the above two models were 398 t,549 t and 398 t for normal,log-normal and gamma error distributions,re-spectively.The MSY estimates from the Fox model were 381 t,366 t and 366 t for the above three error assumptions,respectively.The Fox model estimates were smaller than those for the Schaefer and the Pella-Tomlinson models.In the light of the MSY estimations of 415 t from ASPIC for the Fox model and 381 t from CEDA for the Fox model,MSY for S.sihama is about 400 t.As the catch in 2003 was 401 t,we would suggest the fishery should be kept at the current level.Production models used here depend on the assumption that CPUE(catch per unit effort) data used in the study can reliably quantify temporal variability in population abundance,hence the mod-eling results would be wrong if such an assumption is not met.Because the reliability of this CPUE data in indexing fish population abundance is unknown,we should be cautious with the interpretation and use of the derived population and management parameters.