北京地区高风险断裂及其强地面运动模拟

北京地区历史上发生多次破坏性地震.在未来50年超越概率10%的中国地震烈度区划中,北京地区烈度为Ⅷ度.北京邻区强震对北京地震烈度的影响已经有一些研究.然而,如果北京地区的断裂发生强震,其地震烈度将有多大？又是如何分布？这是防震减灾所关注的问题.北京活断层研究表明,黄庄—高丽营等断裂具有第四纪分段活动特征.本文首先用有限元方法对北京地区活动地震断裂地震安全度进行评估,确定了黄庄—高丽营断裂（北段）是其中地震安全度相对最低的断裂;然后在此断裂上设定一个M_S7.2的情景地震,使用可以考虑真实起伏地形影响的任意曲线网格有限差分方法模拟了这个设定地震在北京地区引起的强地面运动特征和烈度分布细节.强地面运动模拟结果表明,峰值速度PGV>0.7 m·s^-1的区域集中在沿断裂东侧的8~9 km宽的条带内,最大值达1 m·s^-1;烈度分布显示断裂周围20 km内大都超过Ⅷ度.本文结果可为防震减灾提供参考依据.

     

震源参数对强地面震动模拟结果的影响

基于运动学震源模型,进行了不同震源参数情形下强地面震动数值模拟.结果表明,不同的破裂过程会产生差别甚大的强地面运动分布,一次确定性震源参数的模拟结果不能作为活动断层地震危害性评价的指标,只有通过大量三维地震动场模拟计算,给出地面震动评估的统计结果,才是比较合理的发展方向.由于一次三维地震动场计算耗时很大,因此解决问题的关键是如何考虑合理的震源参数.     

断层破裂方式对银川盆地强地面运动的影响

银川盆地是受断层控制的断陷性盆地,边缘和内部发育了多条断裂带,特别是其内部晚更新世-全新世活动的银川隐伏断层可能对银川市的建设规划和抗震设防影响较大.为了研究银川隐伏断层活动对银川盆地强地面运动特征的影响,本文以银川隐伏活动断层作为目标断层,模拟了断层发生Mw6.5特征地震时,在单侧破裂和双侧破裂两种方式下,银川盆地的强地面运动分布特征.分析结果表明在两种破裂方式下,盆地内强地面运动表现出不同形态的地震条带状分布特征和上盘效应;同时受到银川盆地边缘断裂"西陡东缓"构造特征的影响,地表强地震动分布和断层附近观测点的时程也呈现出独特的盆地边界反射作用.在单侧破裂和双侧破裂两种模式下,近场强地面运动集中区总体上呈现北强南弱的现象,银川市及附近的芦花台等地区是强地面运动分布的主要区域.     

2010年青海玉树Ms7.1地震近断层地面运动估计

2010年4月14日在我国青海省玉树藏族自治州发生了M_s7.1级地震.地震给当地群众的生命财产带来巨大损失,其中最严重的破坏发生在震中东南的玉树县城.我们利用反演远场地震波形得到的震源破裂模型和Crust2.0提供的当地的地壳模型,计算了近断层地面运动（速度场和位移场）,再现了地震发生时当地的地面运动图像.根据这个图像,震源的单侧破裂过程导致了明显的多普勒效应.地震波自震中向四周扩散开去,但沿着断层向东南方向传播的地震波的幅度更大、波峰更密.玉树县城恰好位于地面静态位移较大的区域,也位于较强烈的位移波和速度波穿越的地带.与实际的地面运动相比,虽然我们的计算还不够精确,但无容置疑,破裂过程导致的多普勒效应是玉树县城遭受严重破坏的主要原因.     

近断层强地震动场预测

以1997年4月11日新疆伽师地震（Mw6.1）为例,详细介绍了近断层强地震动场的预测方法.首先,用有限断层震源建模方法建立了该次地震的震源模型;然后,基于动力学拐角频率的地震动随机模拟方法,模拟了该次地震仅有主震加速度记录、且位于巨厚土层上的三个台站的加速度时程,并用实际地震记录进行了验证.在此基础上,基于预测的近断层77个节点的加速度时程的峰值绘制了该次地震的加速度场.结果表明,上述方法模拟的加速度时程在0.5 Hz以上的高频段是可行的、实用的;预测的近断层加速度场具有非常明显的上盘效应.地表最大加速度的范围与断层面上最大凹凸体位置相对应,说明与断层面上凹凸体相对应的地面上的建（构）筑物将会遭受到较为严重的震害.     

Numerical evaluation of slope topography effects on seismic ground motion

This paper presents results of numerical analyses for the seismic response of step-like ground slopes in uniform visco-elastic soil, under vertically propagating SV seismic waves. The aim of the analyses is to explore the effects of slope geometry, predominant excitation frequency and duration, as well as of the dynamic soil properties on seismic ground motion in a parametric manner, and provide qualitative as well as quantitative insight to the phenomenon. Among the main conclusions of this study is that this kind of topography may lead to intense amplification or de-amplification variability at neighboring (within a few tens of meters) points behind the crest of the slope, especially for high frequency excitations. Nevertheless, a general trend of amplification near the crest and de-amplification near the toe of the slope seems to hold for the horizontal motion. As a result of these two findings, it becomes evident that reliable field evidence of slope topography aggravation is extremely difficult to establish. Furthermore, this study highlights the generation of a parasitic vertical component of motion in the vicinity of the slope, due to wave reflections at the slope surface, that under certain preconditions may become as large as the horizontal. Criteria are established for deciding on the importance of topography effects, while approximate relations are provided for the preliminary evaluation of the topographic aggravation of seismic ground motion and the width of the affected zone behind the crest.     

Predicted near-field ground motion for dynamic stress-drop models

We propose a finite difference method, using a hexagonal grid, to compute displacements (stresses, velocities, accelerations) in the near-field of a 2-D in-plane stress-drop crack, in both whole space (constant stress-drop) and half-space (depth-dependent stress-drop). To exercise the method, the stress field distribution is evaluated for both fundamental 2-D shear cracks, anti-plane. In order to test the method's reliability, the results are compared with some analytical and numerical solutions available in the literature (Kostrov, 1964;Virieux andMadariaga, 1982). For the in-plane source, the results emphasize that the method can resolve the stress concentration due to the rupture front from the stress peak associated with the shear wave propagating in front of the crack. Synthetic motions are computed on the fault, but also in an infinite medium and at the free surface. The rather complex waveforms generated in the near-field, even by simple sources, emphasize the contribution of all wave terms (near, intermediate and far-field) to the motion. The presence of near-field and the numerical procedure explain the significant low frequency content of the computed seismograms. The set of treated problems proves the method is stable and accurate.     

2014年8月3日云南鲁甸地震强地面运动初步模拟及烈度预测

2014年8月3日云南省昭通市鲁甸县发生了Ms6.5级地震.在已知的三维介质模型、地形数据基础上,利用震源运动学初步反演模型（张勇等,2014）,作者采用曲线坐标网格三维曲线有限差分方法模拟了鲁甸地震波场传播过程,并计算了模拟区域地震烈度分布.结果表明：地震最大烈度为Ⅶ度,破坏主要集中在鲁甸县以及巧家县、会泽县靠近鲁甸县的边界.另外,模拟结果还显示地震动在山峰、山脊处具有较大的幅度.计算表明断层东北侧的低速沉积盆地的波动放大效应加强了该地区的地震灾害.     

2014年2月12日新疆于田地震强地面运动初步模拟及烈度预测

2014年2月12日新疆自治区于田县发生了MS7.3级地震.在已知的三维介质模型、地形数据基础上,利用震源运动学初步反演模型（张勇等,2014）,作者采用曲线坐标网格三维曲线有限差分方法模拟了于田地震波场传播过程,并计算了模拟区域地震烈度分布.结果表明：地震最大烈度为7度,距离震中最近的于田县城烈度约为5度,断层西北侧地面震动略强于断层东南侧.另外模拟结果还显示地震动在山脊处具有较大的幅度.该地震本身主要能量释放区域在中地壳,主要滑动未及地表,因此对地表造成的破坏有限,这与目前尚无人员伤亡报告的情况相符合.     

Stochastic models for simulation of strong ground motion in Iceland

Two types of modelling approaches for simulating ground motion in Iceland are studied and compared. The first type of models, named discrete‐time series models (ARMA), are based solely on measured acceleration in earthquakes occurring in Iceland. The second type of models are based on a theoretical seismic source model called the extended Brune model. Based on measured acceleration in Iceland during the period 1986–1996, the parameters for the extended Brune models have been estimated. The seismic source models are presented here as ARMA models, which simplifies the simulation process. A single‐layer soil amplification model is used in conjunction with the extended Brune model to estimate local site amplification. Emphasis is put on the ground motion models representing the variability in the measured earthquakes, with respect to energy, duration and frequency content. Demonstration is made using these models for constructing linear and non‐linear probabilistic response spectra using a discretised version of the Bouc–Wen model for the hysteresis of the second‐order system. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强震及工程震害基础资料数据库地理信息系统研究

基于MapInfo软件开发平台，建立了强震和工程震害空间数据库，对产生数据误差的来源进行分析和提出控制误差的方法，设计并实现了强震及工程震害数据地理信息系统，该系统界面主要用于Internet服务的后台图形制作，并为用户提供强震及震害数据的地理信息查询服务。     

Seismic microzoning from synthetic ground motion parameters: case study, Santiago de Cuba

Synthetic seismograms (P-SV and SH waves) have been calculated along six profiles in Santiago de Cuba basin, with a cutoff frequency of 5 Hz, by using a hybrid approach (modal summation for a regional 1D structure plus finite differences for a local 2D structure embedded in the first). They correspond to a scenario earthquake of M_S=7 that may occur in Oriente fault zone, directly south of the city. As initial data for a seismic microzoning, the characterisation of earthquake effects has been made considering several relative (2D/1D) quantities (PGDR, PGVR, PGAR, DGAR, I_AR—ratios of peak ground values of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and of design ground acceleration and Arias intensity-, etc.) and functions representative of the ground motion characteristics in soil (2D) with respect to bedrock (1D). The functions are the response spectra ratio RSR(f), already routinely used in this kind of work, and the elastic energy input ratio E_IR(f), defined, for the first time, in this paper. These data, sampled at 115 sites within all the profiles have been classified in two steps, using logical combinatory algorithms: connected components and compact sets. In the first step, from the original ground motion parameters or functions extracted from the synthetic seismograms, nine sets have been classified and the partial results show the spatial distribution of the soil behaviour as a function of the component of motion. In the second step, the results of the classification of the nine sets have been used as input for a further classification that shows a spatial distribution of sites with a quasi-homogeneous integral ground motion behaviour. By adding the available geological surface data, a microzoning scheme of Santiago de Cuba basin has been obtained.     

Analytical investigations of seismic responses for reinforced concrete bridge columns subjected to strong near-fault ground motion

Strong near-fault ground motion, usually caused by the fault-rupture and characterized by a pulse-like velocity- wave form, often causes dramatic instantaneous seismic energy (Jadhav and Jangid 2006). Some reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns, even those built according to ductile design principles, were damaged in the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Thus, it is very important to evaluate the seismic response of a RC bridge column to improve its seismic design and prevent future damage. Nonlinear time history analysis using step-by-step integration is capable of tracing the dynamic response of a structure during the entire vibration period and is able to accommodate the pulsing wave form. However, the accuracy of the numerical results is very sensitive to the modeling of the nonlinear load-deformation relationship of the structural member. FEMA 273 and ATC-40 provide the modeling parameters for structural nonlinear analyses of RC beams and RC columns. They use three parameters to define the plastic rotation angles and a residual strength ratio to describe the nonlinear load- deformation relationship of an RC member. Structural nonlinear analyses are performed based on these parameters. This method provides a convenient way to obtain the nonlinear seismic responses of RC structures. However, the accuracy of the numerical solutions might be further improved. For this purpose, results from a previous study on modeling of the static pushover analyses for RC bridge columns (Sung et al. 2005) is adopted for the nonlinear time history analysis presented herein to evaluate the structural responses excited by a near-fault ground motion. To ensure the reliability of this approach, the numerical results were compared to experimental results. The results confirm that the proposed approach is valid.     

Assessment of the vertical distribution on seismic ground motion

It is very important for the facilities such as nuclear power plants to infer seismic force loading on the earthquake stability assessment of the building foundation and the surrounding slope. The purpose of this paper was to propose a method to evaluate underground seismic coefficients, taking into account dynamic response along the depth in horizontally multi-layered ground. The dynamic property of the seismic coefficient was analyzed on the basis of earthquake records observed at hard and soft rock sites mostly found in Tertiary deposits and sedimentary ground sites of the Pleistocene and Holocene epoch. The evaluation methods of a vertical distribution on underground seismic coefficients were proposed for a few calculation methods on the classified layered ground. Extended evaluation for underground seismic coefficients was confirmed with respect to some multi-layered ground during strong motion.     

Earthquake ground motion predictive equations for Garhwal Himalaya,India

Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤M_w≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M_w=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.     

Engineering source model for strong ground motion

A new engineering source model consistent with seismological concepts for simulating strong-motion accelerograms (SMAs) is presented in this paper. The source region is modeled as a horizontally layered elastic medium to cater for site dependency. The moment field acting on the rupture plane is decomposed into space and time functions, which is a novel concept. The spatial and temporal components are determined for six well-recorded earthquakes using the corresponding recorded SMA. The obtained spatial variations indicate that they can be modeled as an anisotropic random field. The temporal components of all the six events are transients, with typical frequency spectra. Based on these results, a simplified source model is proposed for the synthesis of SMA during strong earthquakes. The model is validated by simulating strong-motion acceleration time histories at stations deliberately kept out of the modeling exercise. It is found that the present model is efficient in simulating observed time histories. The proposed model is also illustrated by simulating an ensemble of acceleration time histories for the Kutch earthquake of 26th January 2001 using only the few known source parameters.     

Ground-Motion Scaling in the Western Alps

In order to empirically obtain the scaling relationships for the high-frequency ground motion in the Western Alps (NW Italy), regressions are carried out on more than 7500 seismograms from 957 regional earthquakes. The waveforms were selected from the database of 6 three-component stations of the RSNI (Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy). The events, M _W ranging between 1.2 and 4.8, were recorded within a hypocentral distance of 200 km during the time period: 1996–2001. The peak ground velocities are measured in selected narrow-frequency bands, between 0.5 and 14 Hz. Results are presented in terms of a regional attenuation function for the vertical ground motion, a set of vertical excitation terms at the reference station STV2 (hard-rock), and a set of site terms (vertical and horizontal), all relative to the vertical component of station STV2.The regional propagation of the ground motion is modeled after quantifying the expected duration of the seismic motion as a function of frequency and hypocentral distance. A simple functional form is used to take into account both the geometrical and the anelastic attenuation: a multi-variable grid search yielded a quality factor Q(f) = 310f ^0.20, together with a quadri-linear geometrical spreading at low frequency. A simpler, bi-linear geometrical spreading seems to be more appropriate at higher frequencies (f > 1.0 Hz). Excitation terms are matched by using a Brune spectral model with variable, magnitude-dependent stress drop: at M _w 4.8, we used Δσ = 50 MPa. A regional distance-independent attenuation parameter is obtained (κ₀ = 0.012 s) by modelling the average spectral decay at high frequency of small earthquakes.In order to predict the absolute levels of ground shaking in the region, the excitation/attenuation model is used through the Random Vibration Theory (RVT) with a stochastic point-source model. The expected peak-ground accelerations (PGA) are compared with the ones derived by Ambraseys et al. (1996) for the Mediterranean region and by Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) for the Italian territory.     

基于假设检验的地震动强度(烈度)速报方法

地震发生后数分钟内,快速、可靠地判别出地震动强度(烈度)的空间分布,用以估计不同地区的受灾程度,可以为政府开展应急救援并合理分配救援力量提供决策依据,保证救援人员及时、准确地到达极震区并展开搜救,以减少生命财产损失。本文基于统计学中的假设检验方法,对历史震害资料进行统计,提出了一种利用强地震动参数判别地震动强度(烈度)的方法。比较结果表明,本方法所确定的地震动强度(烈度)与实际震害烈度对应较好,能较真实地反映实际震害情况。