Insolation, Moisture Balance and Climate Change on the South American Altiplano Since the Last Glacial Maximum

Sediment cores from Lake Titicaca contain proxy records of past lake level and hydrologic change on the South American Altiplano. Large downcore shifts in the isotopic composition of organic carbon, C/N, wt.%C_org, %CaCO₃, and % biogenicsilica illustrate the dynamic changes in lake level that occurred during the past 20,000 years. The first cores taken from water depths greater than 50 meters in the northern subbasin of the lake are used to develop and extend the paleolake-level record back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Quantitative estimates of lake level are developed using transfer functions based on the ¹³C of modern lacustrine organic sources and the ¹³C of modern sedimented organic matter from core-tops. Lake level was slightly higher than modern during much of the post-LGM (20,000–13,500 yr BP) and lake water was freshunder the associated outflow conditions. The Pleistocene/Holocene transition (13,500–7,500 yr BP) was a period of gradual regression, punctuated by minor trangressions. Following a brief highstand at about 7250 yr BP, lake level dropped rapidly to 85 m below the modern level, reaching maximum lowstand conditions by 6250 yr BP. Lake level increased rapidly between 5000yr BP and 4000 yr BP, and less rapidly between 4000 yr BP and 1500 yr BP.Lake level remained relatively high throughout the latest Holocene with only minor fluctuations (<12 meters). Orbitally induced changes in solar insolation, coupled with long-term changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability, are the most likely driving forces behind millennial-scale shifts in lake level that reflect regional-scale changes in the moisture balance of the Atlantic-Amazon-Altiplano hydrologic system.     

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the green MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation—albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8–6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation—albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8–6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4–0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8–2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation.     

Seychelles coral record of changes in sea surface temperature bimodality in the western Indian Ocean from the Mid-Holocene to the present

We report fossil coral records from the Seychelles comprising individual time slices of 14–20 sclerochronological years between 2 and 6.2 kyr BP to reconstruct changes in the seasonal cycle of western Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) compared to the present (1990–2003). These reconstructions allowed us to link changes in the SST bimodality to orbital changes, which were causing a reorganization of the seasonal insolation pattern. Our results reveal the lowest seasonal SST range in the Mid-Holocene (6.2–5.2 kyr BP) and around 2 kyr BP, while the highest range is observed around 4.6 kyr BP and between 1990 and 2003. The season of maximum temperature shifts from austral spring (September to November) to austral autumn (March to May), following changes in seasonal insolation over the past 6 kyr. However, the changes in SST bimodality do not linearly follow the insolation seasonality. For example, the 5.2 and 6.2 kyr BP corals show only subtle SST differences in austral spring and autumn. We use paleoclimate simulations of a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to compare with proxy data for the Mid-Holocene around 6 kyr BP. The model results show that in the Mid-Holocene the austral winter and spring seasons in the western Indian Ocean were warmer while austral summer was cooler. This is qualitatively consistent with the coral data from 6.2 to 5.2 kyr BP, which shows a similar reduction in the seasonal amplitude compared to the present day. However, the pattern of the seasonal SST cycle in the model appears to follow the changes in insolation more directly than indicated by the corals. Our results highlight the importance of ocean–atmosphere interactions for Indian Ocean SST seasonality throughout the Holocene. In order to understand Holocene climate variability in the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, we need a much more comprehensive analysis of seasonally resolved archives from the tropical Indian Ocean. Insolation data alone only provides an incomplete picture.     

Paleo-evolution of the Black Sea watershed: sea level and water transport through the Bosporus Straits as an indicator of the Lateglacial–Holocene transition

The paleo-evolution of the Black Sea level during the Lateglacial–Holocene transition is still unclear, which motivates us to provide new estimates for that period based on the analysis of water budget. Hydrological conditions in the Black Sea catchment area are reconstructed here using water balance equation, available data, and constraints based on simple theory relating the runoff ratio with climatic characteristics. In order to estimate the impact of the aridity of climate we consider two alternative scenarios: (1) climate change under constant in time gradient in precipitation and evaporation over land and sea, and (2) climate change accounting for changes in the horizontal distribution of precipitation and evaporation. Hydrological data are compiled from available present-day data and paleo-observations. A number of sensitivity experiments is carried out revealing that the hydrological conditions in the Black Sea watershed should have evolved towards a very arid climate (similar to the present-day climate in the Caspian Sea area) in order to initiate a drop of sea level of ∼100 m below the sill depth of the Bosporus Straits, as speculated in some recent research. Estimates of sea level changes reveal a qualitative agreement with the coast-line evolution inferred from paleo-observations. The Younger Dryas draw down of the Black Sea starts at about 13.3 to 13 kyr BP, with a maximum low-stand of 104 m at 11.5 kyr BP. In an arid climate scenario the sea level reaches the outlet at about 8.8 to 7.4 kyr BP. Approximately at that time, Mediterranean sea level was about 10 m higher, making flooding events of the Black Sea possible. However, the nature and exact timing of the Holocene reconnection depends also on other (not well known) factors; one of them is the Bosporus sill depth, motivating further research in this field. Estimates of the water transport through the Bosporus Straits are also provided for the time of Lateglacial–Holocene transition.     

Holocene vegetation and hydrology variations and their associations with climate changes: a multi-proxy analysis of a sediment core from an alpine basin in the middle Tianshan Mountains

We in this paper present a multi-proxy study of a 186-cm-long lacustrine sediment core (i.e., BY Core) obtained from the Youerdusi Basin in the middle Tianshan Mountains in an attempt to disentangle the causal associations among climate changes, ecological responses and hydrological variations. Palynological, assemblages and the associated biome scores indicate that the upper limit of the forest zone was closer to the Youerdusi Basin with a larger wetland extent in the Youerdusi Basin during the early part (i.e., from ~ 10.5 to ~ 5.8 cal. kyr BP) of the data-covering period (i.e., from ~ 10.5 to ~ 2.4 cal. kyr BP). The upper limit of the forest zone was farther away from the Youerdusi Basin with a smaller wetland extent in the Youerdusi Basin during the late part (i.e., from ~ 5.8 to ~ 2.4 cal. kyr BP). The changes of taiga biome score and the AP% ratio indicate a persistent cooling trend during the data-covering period which is well corroborated by various proxy data from nearby sites and the cooling trend is chronologically consistent with the trend of Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies that was interpreted to be a delayed response to the summer solar irradiance at 50° N. The tundra biome score and the associated percentages of Cyperaceae in the Youerdusi Basin show two major stages of wetland extent variation. The wetland extent variation in the Youerdusi Basin might have been controlled by precipitation and/or by glacier-melting potential that was in turn controlled by both temperature and the extent of remained ice cover in higher elevations. The δ¹³C_org values obtained from the BY Core indicate a wetting trend during the data-covering period which is reasonably corroborated by various proxy data from nearby sites. We infer that the wetting trend was causally associated with the Holocene increasing trend of the North Atlantic Ocean SST (sea surface temperature) and also with the Holocene increasing trend of the westerlies’ intensity.

     

Holocene changes in seasonal precipitation highlighted by fire incidence in eastern Canada

Postglacial fire history has been reconstructed for eastern Canada from charcoal-influx anomalies from 30 sites taken from a lacustrine charcoal database. The reconstruction exhibits coherent patterns of fire occurrence in space and time. The early Holocene is characterised by high fire incidence. There is a major change to much lower occurrence slightly after 8 ka BP. A return to more fire appears after 3 ka BP. This sequence does not fit with the hydro-climatic reconstruction deduced from lake level reconstructions for northeastern North America, which indicates a dry early and mid-Holocene, and a wet late-Holocene. Fire occurrence however closely matches summer relative humidity inferred from δ¹⁸O. The differences between fire frequency and lake level history, are due to changes in the seasonality of precipitation and drought frequency. Lake levels are essentially controlled by winter precipitation while summer precipitation controls fire occurrence. The early Holocene before 8–7.5 ka BP experienced dry summers due to higher solar radiation and dry adiabatic winds from the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet. The middle Holocene was dominated by wet summers due to stability of the Atlantic air mass over eastern Canada. After 2.5 ka BP, summers became drier, albeit not as fire-conducive as during the early Holocene. Late-Holocene summers conducive to fire are explained by more frequent incursions of dry Cool Pacific or Cold Arctic air masses over eastern Canada. Received: 25 January 1999 / Accepted: 14 December 1999     

Dust transport and palaeoclimate during the Oldest Dryas in Central Europe — implications from varves (Lake Constance)

This paper evaluates evidence for seasonal loess deposits in peri-Alpine Lake Constance at the end of the last Glacial (Oldest Dryas chronozone). The usefulness of such lacustrine deposits for palaeoclimatic interpretations is discussed. The sedimentology of laminated couplets comprising yellow and grey silts has been investigated to test the hypothesis that the couplets are varves (i.e. annual rhythmites) comprising alternations of loess and glacial silt and clay. The laminae are mostly less than 1 mm thick and include from bottom to top: (1) a matrix of well-sorted, non-graded fine yellow silt with sand-size intraclasts, (2) coarsening-upward grey silt with a cap of fining-upward silt to clay. The latter is typical for varves in modern proglacial lakes and reflects summer and winter deposits (silt and clay, respectively). We propose that the lack of grading and the matrix supported fabric is indicative of aeolian transport and therefore interpret the yellow laminae as loess deposits. Volcanic glass intraclasts in the loess layers are probably derived from volcanic terrain to the west of the lake, indicating an easterly palaeowind direction. Deposition of loess in the lake occurred regularly at the beginning of each annual cycle, suggesting that the palaeowinds were associated with winter and/or spring conditions. Two transport scenarios are suggested to explain the sand grains scattered in this deep-water lacustrine record. 1. The grains may have been transported as bedload over the annual winter ice-cover of the lake under moderate wind strengths, frozen into the ice, and released for deposition during spring melt. 2. The sand grains were blown directly out onto the lake water by very strong winds during spring. The first scenario is contrary to the general view that loess was transported during summer, and that loess deposits thus reflect summer conditions only. Loess input to the lake shows a transitional decrease after ca. 14.3 kyr BP and cessation at ca. 14 kyr BP, probably as a result of a change of wind behaviour, increased humidity and/or vegetational changes during the Oldest Dryas in central Europe.This paper was presented at Clima Locarno 90, the International Conference on Past and Present Climate Dynamics: Reconstruction of Rates of Change, held in Locarno, Switzerland, September 24 to 28, 1991, supported by a grant from the Swiss Academy of Sciences. It was convened jointly by the Swiss National Climate Program - ProClim, the Swiss Committee for the IGBP, the Swiss COL, the Swiss SCOPE Committee, and the Swiss CCA. Guest editor for the papers published following the conference is Dr. K. Kelts (see also Climate Dynamics 6:3/4, Jan. 1992)     

Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP

This study investigates the role of insolation in controlling the Indian and African monsoon evolutions during the Holocene using coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of 0, 6, 9.5 kyr BP climates, for which only the variations of Earth’s orbital configuration are considered. The two monsoon systems are enhanced at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, compared to 0 kyr BP, as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis of daily climatologies indicates that even though the length of the “celestial” summer season is shorter at 9.5 kyr BP, the rainy season is longer than at present. Emphasis is put on the impact of the precession on the seasonality, which partly explains why the relative amplification of the Indian and African monsoon varies between 9.5 and 6 kyr BP. Moreover, the changes in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau play a critical role in reinforcing the 9.5 kyr BP monsoon in India during spring. The results suggest that the teleconnection between convection over India and subsidence over the Mediterranean regions, through the Rodwell and Hoskins mechanism, has an impact on the development of the African monsoon at 9.5 kyr BP.     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperature and precipitation in China during the Holocene, especially the last two millennia. The quality of proxy data, methodology of reconstruction, and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperature and precipitation reconstruction and clarifying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene. The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet. The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP, whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.0-5.0 cal ka BP. There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes. During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age （AD 1400-AD 1900）, but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period （AD 900-AD 1300） was not distinct in China, especially west China. The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China, especially east China. The modern warm period has lasted 20 years from 1987 to 2006. Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.     

Glacial to Holocene implications of the new 27000-year dust record from the EPICA Dome C (East Antarctica) ice core

Insoluble dust concentrations and volume-size distributions have been measured for the new 581 m deep Dome C-EPICA ice core (Antarctica). Over the 27000 years spanned by the record, microparticle measurements from 169 levels, to date, confirm evidence of the drastic decrease in bulk concentration from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene (interglacial) by a factor of more than 50 in absolute value and of about 26 in flux. Unique new features revealed by the EPICA profile include a higher dust concentration during the Antarctic Cold Reversal phase (ACR) by a factor of 2 with respect to the Holocene average. This event is followed by a well-marked minimum that appears to be concomitant with the methane peak that marks the end of the Younger Dryas in the Northern Hemisphere. Particle volume-size distributions show a mode close to 2 7m in diameter, with a slight increase from the LGM to the Holocene; the LGM/Holocene concentration ratio appears to be dependent on particle size and for diameters from 2 to 5 7m it changes from 50 to 6. Glacial samples are characterised by well-sorted particles and very uniform distributions, while the interglacial samples display a high degree of variability and dispersion. This suggests that different modes of transport prevailed during the two climatic periods with easier penetration of air masses into Antarctica in the Holocene than during Glacial times. Assuming that southern South America remained the main dust source for East Antarctica over the time period studied, the higher dust content recorded during the ACR which preceded the Younger Dryas period, represents evidence of a change in South America environmental conditions at this time. A wet period and likely mild climate in South America is suggested at circa 11.5-11.7 kyr BP corresponding to the end of the Younger Dryas. The Holocene part of the profile also shows a slight general decrease in concentration, but with increasingly large particles that may reflect gradual changes at the source.     

Climate-related variations in crustal trace elements in Dome C (East Antarctica) ice during the past 672 kyr

Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U were determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS) in various sections of the 3,270 m deep ice core recently drilled at Dome C on the high East Antarctic plateau as part of the EPICA program. The sections were dated from 263 kyr bp (depth of 2,368 m) to 672 kyr bp (depth of 3,062 m). When combined with the data previously obtained by Gabrielli and co-workers for the upper 2,193 m of the core, it gives a detailed record for these elements during a 672-kyr period from the Holocene back to Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 16.2. Concentrations and fallout fluxes of all elements are found to be highly variable with low values during the successive interglacial periods and much higher values during the coldest periods of the last eight climatic cycles. Crustal enrichment factors indicates that rock and soil dust is the dominant source for Fe, Rb, Ba and U whatever the period and for Cr during the glacial maxima. The relationship between Cr, Fe, Rb, Ba and U concentrations and the deuterium content of the ice appears to be similar before and after the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, around 430 kyr bp). Mean concentration values observed during the successive interglacials from the Holocene to MIS 15.5 appear to vary from one interglacial to another at least for part of the elements. Concentrations observed during the successive glacial maxima suggest a decreasing trend from the most recent glacial maxima (MIS 2.2 and 4.2) to the oldest glacial maxima such as MIS 14.2, 14.4 and 16.2, which could be linked with changes in the size distribution of dust particles transported from mid-latitude areas to the East Antarctic ice cap.     

Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T _ann), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a δ¹⁸O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjön, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T _ann, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000–8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T _ann values about 2.5°C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial-scale climate dynamics.     

The African rain forest vegetation and palaeoenvironments during late quaternary

This review paper presents first the main pollen results on the vegetation history of the rain forest during the late Quaternary.- The Lake Bosumtwi record (Ghana) shows the disappearance of rain forest from the base of the core (ca. 28 000 yr BP) to ca. 9000 yr BP. During this time interval the vegetation was of montane type with sparse clumps of trees. There is synchronism between montane vegetation disappearance and rain forest reappearance. This phenomenon occurred abruptly around 9000 yr BP.- The Lake Barombi Mbo record (West Cameroon) shows clearly that from ca. 24 000 yr BP until the present time, rain forest persisted with limited variations, and thus, this area represents a refuge area.From these data and other, one concludes that Afromontane vegetation extended to lowland during cool and humid phases.Other palaeoenvironmental data were obtained by diverse geological analyses of the lacustrine sediments. For Bosumtwi, the relatively precise reconstruction of lake-level fluctuations permitted several palaeoclimatic interpretations for the main Holocene phases.For Barombi Mbo, the evolution of total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TON) seems to be related mainly to temperature evolution. By comparison with present-day mountain environments, TOC and TON increase in cool environments, but decrease when warmth and humidity increase, as during Holocene time, because the recycling processes speed up in the topsoil. For the same period the alteration of the soils in the catchment produced a strong increase of kaolinite. All these change intervened ca. 9500 yr BP, which is a key date in tropical Africa.In conclusion, climatic correlations between equatorial and dry north tropical Africa illustrate how changes in the forest block must have important effects on adjacent climatic zones.     

Deciphering recent climate change in central Mexican lake records

Central Mexico contains a large number of lake basins offering opportunities for climatic reconstruction. The area has, however, also been the focus for human settlement since the time of the earliest occupation of the Americas, as well as being subject to tectonic and volcanic activity. A number of methodological issues arise including the susceptibility of common palaeoecological proxies (pollen, diatoms) to multiple forcing factors and problems of obtaining reliable chronologies. Published lake records indicate that the last 1,500 years have been marked by strong climatic variability, superimposed on continuing high levels of anthropogenic impact. Dry conditions, probably the driest of the Holocene, are recorded over the period 1400 to 800 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. AD 700–1200). Climatic change over the last 1,000 years is not well represented, but there are indications of drier conditions corresponding to the ‘Little Ice Age’ of mid- to high latitudes. A range of mechanisms (e.g. solar cycles, ENSO variability) have been proposed to explain climatic variability over the last 1,500 years, but current lake records are inadequate to test these. The developing dendroclimatology for the Mexican highlands and the rich historical archives of the Hispanic period (from AD 1521) offer new opportunities and challenges to palaeolimnologists.     

Dust size evidence for opposite regional atmospheric circulation changes over east Antarctica during the last climatic transition

Three east Antarctic ice cores (Dome B, EPICA-Dome C and Komsomolskaia) give evidence for a uniform dust input to the polar plateau during the last glacial maximum (LGM)/Holocene transition (20 to 10 kyr BP) and the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr versus ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotopic signature of the mineral particles highlights a common provenance from southern South America at that time. However, the size distribution of dust from the three ice cores highlights important differences within the east Antarctic during the LGM and shows clearly opposite regional trends during the climatic transition. Between Dome B and Dome C the timing of these changes is also different. A geographical diversity also arises from the different phasing of the short-term (multi-secular scale) dust size oscillations that are superposed at all sites on the main trends of glacial to interglacial changes. We hypothesize the dust grading is controlled by size fractionation inresponse to its atmospheric pathway, either in terms of horizontal trajectory or in altitude of transport. Such mechanism is supported also by the dust size changes observed during a volcanic event recorded in Vostok ice. Ice core dust size data suggest preferential upper air subsidence over the EDC-KMS region and easier penetration of relatively lower air masses to the DB area during the LGM. At the end of the last glacial period and during the climatic transition the region of relatively higher subsidence progressively moved southward. The scenario proposed, supported also by the LGM/Holocene regional changes of snow accumulation, likely operates even at sub-millennial time scale.     

Atmospheric circulation anomalies due to 115 kyr BP climate forcing dominated by changes in the North Pacific Ocean

Climate at the time of inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) at ~115 kyr BP is simulated with the fully coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and compared to a simulated preindustrial climate (circa 1870) in order to better understand land surface and atmospheric responses to orbital and greenhouse cooling at inception. The interaction between obliquity and eccentricity produces maximum decrease in TOA insolation in JJA over the Arctic but increases occur over the tropics in DJF. The land surface response is dominated by widespread summer cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), increases in snowfall, and decreases in melt rates and total precipitation. CCSM3 responds to the climate forcing at 115 kyr BP by producing incipient glaciation in the areas of LIS nucleation. We find that the inception of the LIS could have occurred with atmospheric circulation patterns that differ little from the present. The location of the troughs/ridges, mean flow over the Canadian Arctic and dominant modes of the atmospheric circulation are all very similar to the present. Larger changes in mean sea level pressure occur upstream of the inception region in the North Pacific Ocean and downstream in Western Europe. In the North Pacific region, the 115 kyr BP anomalies weaken both the Pacific high and Aleutian low making NH summers look more like the PREIND winters and vice versa. The occurrence of cold JJA anomalies at 115 kyr BP favors outbreaks of cold air not in the winter as in contemporary climates but during the summer instead and reinforces the cooling from orbital and GHG reductions. Increased poleward eddy transport of heat and moisture characterizes the atmospheric response in addition to reduced total cloud cover in the Arctic.     

Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present

We present a recently developed method of potential analysis of time series data, which comprises (1) derivation of the number of distinct global states of a system from time series data, and (2) derivation of the potential coefficients describing the location and stability of these states, using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We test the method on artificial data and then apply it to climate records spanning progressively shorter time periods from 5.3?Myr ago to the recent observational record. We detect various changes in the number and stability of states in the climate system. The onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation roughly 3?Myr BP is detected as the appearance of a second climate state. During the last ice age in Greenland, there is a bifurcation representing the loss of stability of the warm interstadial state, followed by the total loss of this state around 25?kyr BP. The Holocene is generally characterized by a single stable climate state, especially at large scales. However, in the historical record, at the regional scale, the European monthly temperature anomaly temporarily exhibits a second, highly degenerate (unstable) state during the latter half of the eighteenth century. At the global scale, temperature is currently undergoing a forced movement of a single stable state rather than a bifurcation. The method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical systems with time series of sufficient length and temporal resolution, to look for bifurcations and their precursors.     

Multiple factors causing Holocene lake-level change in monsoonal and arid central Asia as identified by model experiments

Lake-level records provide a rich resource of information about past changes in effective moisture, but water-balance fluctuations can be driven by a number of different climate variables and it is often difficult to pinpoint their exact cause. This understanding is essential, however, for reconciling divergent paleo-records or for making predictions about future lake-level variations. This research uses a series of models, the NCAR CCSM3, a lake energy-balance and a lake water-balance model, to examine the reasons for lake-level changes in monsoonal Asia and arid central Asia between the early (8.5 ka), middle (6.0 ka) and late (ca. 1800 AD) Holocene. Our results indicate that the components of the lake water balance responsible for lake-level changes varied by region and through time. High lake levels at 8.5 and 6.0 ka in the monsoon region were caused by the combined effects of low lake evaporation and high precipitation. The low lake evaporation resulted from low winter solar radiation and high summer cloud cover. Precipitation associated with the mid-latitude westerlies increased from the early to middle Holocene and maintained high lake levels throughout most of arid central Asia ca. 6 ka. The modeled evolution of lake level in arid central Asia from the mid to late Holocene was spatially heterogeneous, due to different sensitivities of the northern and southern parts of the region to seasonally-changing insolation, particularly regarding the duration of lake ice cover. The model results do not suggest that precipitation and lake evaporation changes compete with one another in forcing lake-level change, as has been hypothesized.     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperatare and precipitation in China during the Holocene,especially the last two millennia.The quality of proxy data,methodology of reconstruction,and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperatare and precipitation reconstruction and clarilying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene.The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet.The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP,whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.O-5.0 cal ka BP.There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes.During past two millennia,a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected,but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene.Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-AD 1900),but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period(AD 900-AD 1300)was not distinct in China,especially west China.The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China,especially east China.The modern warm period has lasted 20、years from 1987 to 2006.Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.     

Paleoclimatic inferences from glacial fluctuations on Svalbard during the last 20 000 years

The climate history of western Spitsbergen, Svalbard is deduced from variations of glaciers during the last 20 000 years. A major depression of the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) occurred during the Late Weichselian glacial maximum (18000–13000y ago) when low summer temperatures may have caused year-round snow accumulation on the ground. This rapid expansion of the glaciers also indicates nearby moisture sources, suggesting partly open conditions in the Norwegian Sea during the summers. A rapid glacial retreat around 13 000–12 500 y BP was caused by a sudden warming. During the Younger Dryas the ELA along the extreme western coast of Spitsbergen was not significantly lower than at present. In contrast to Fennoscandia, the British Isles and the Alps, there is no evidence for readvance of local glaciers during Younger Dryas on western Spitsbergen. This difference is attributed to a much dryer climate on Spitsbergen and probably only slight changes in sea surface temperatures. In addition, summer melting in this high arctic area is more sensitive to orbitally increased insolation. Around 10 000 y BP another rapid warming occurred and during early and mid Holocene the summer temperatures were significantly higher than at present. A temperature decline during the late Holocene caused regrowth of the glaciers which reached their maximum Holocene position during the last century.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program