Estimation of seismic hazard in the Kaliningrad region

The paper discusses problems of seismic zoning of the Kaliningrad region, where a series of perceptible earthquakes occurred in 2004; the strongest event had a magnitude of M _s = 4.3 and produced shakings of an intensity of 6 in the coastal zone of the Sambiiskii Peninsula, classified as a 5-intensity zone. The enhanced seismic effect is shown to be caused by bad ground conditions, long-term action of seismic effects, resonance phenomena, and other factors. To gain additional constraints on the seismic hazard degree in the Kaliningrad region, the paper discusses an improved version of the model of earthquake sources underlying the compilation of normative maps of seismic zoning (OSR-97). Modified fragments of OSR-97 probability maps of the Kaliningrad region are constructed at different levels of probability that the seismic effect indicated in the maps will be exceeded over 50 yr. It is shown that additional seismological investigations should be conducted in this region.     

Seismicity pattern and thermal anomalies in the southern Baltic region before and during the Kaliningrad earthquakes of 2004

The seismic situation in the SE Baltic region that existed during the period 1990–2006, including the unexpectedly strong Kaliningrad earthquakes of 2004, is analyzed. The spatiotemporal variation of seismic events in the region is examined on the basis of a newly compiled catalog of tectonic earthquakes. The analysis revealed outbursts of seismic activity in 1995 and 2004, structurization of the distribution of shocks, and their southward migration. The distribution of hot springs that arose in 2002–2004 is analyzed in relation to seismological data. The seismic process and thermal anomalies are shown to be geodynamically controlled, which provided constraints on the nucleation process and focal mechanism of the Kaliningrad earthquakes. The region, located in the western East European platform, should be regarded as seismically rather active.     

2017年九寨沟7.0级地震前不同级别地震空区的演化过程分析

结合传统地震学方法与数字地震学方法,回顾总结了日常分析预报中针对九寨沟7.0级地震开展的相关工作,梳理总结了地震前提出的甘东南地震异常信息,进一步讨论了九寨沟地震前中期、短期及临震异常特征。通过分析九寨沟7.0级地震之前区域范围内不同震级活动图像,发现甘青川交界地区5级空区在震前向震中一侧收缩、4级地震超长平静458天、3级空区在震前4天被打破的现象,同时发现,震中附近区域震源机制一致性较高,反映了震源区的高应力水平。     

A scheme to set preferred magnitudes in the ISC Bulletin

One of the main purposes of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) is to collect, integrate and reprocess seismic bulletins provided by agencies around the world in order to produce the ISC Bulletin. This is regarded as the most comprehensive bulletin of the Earth’s seismicity, and its production is based on a unique cooperation in the seismological community that allows the ISC to complement the work of seismological agencies operating at global and/or local-regional scale. In addition, by using the seismic wave measurements provided by reporting agencies, the ISC computes, where possible, its own event locations and magnitudes such as short-period body wave m _b and surface wave M _S . Therefore, the ISC Bulletin contains the results of the reporting agencies as well as the ISC own solutions. Among the most used seismic event parameters listed in seismological bulletins, the event magnitude is of particular importance for characterizing a seismic event. The selection of a magnitude value (or multiple ones) for various research purposes or practical applications is not always a straightforward task for users of the ISC Bulletin and related products since a multitude of magnitude types is currently computed by seismological agencies (sometimes using different standards for the same magnitude type). Here, we describe a scheme that we intend to implement in routine ISC operations to mark the preferred magnitudes in order to help ISC users in the selection of events with magnitudes of their interest.     

On the Problem of Deep Earthquakes in Crimea–Black Sea Region

It is a common opinion that only crustal earthquakes can occur in the Crimea–Black Sea region. Since the existence of deep earthquakes in the Crimea–Black Sea region is extremely important for the construction of a geodynamic model for this region, an attempt is made to verify the validity of this widespread view. To do this, the coordinates of all earthquakes recorded by the stations of the Crimean seismological network are reinterpreted with an algorithm developed by one of the authors. The data published in the seismological catalogs and bulletins of the Crimea–Black Sea region for 1970–2012 are used for the analysis. To refine the coordinates of hypocenters of earthquakes in the Crimea–Black Sea region, in addition to the data from stations of the Crimean seismological network, information from seismic stations located around the Black Sea coast are used. In total, the data from 61 seismic stations were used to determine the hypocenter coordinates. The used earthquake catalogs for 1970–2012 contain information on ~2140 events with magnitudes from–1.5 to 5.5. The bulletins provide information on the arrival times of P- and S-waves at seismic stations for 1988 events recorded by three or more stations. The principal innovation of this study is the use of the original author’s hypocenter determination algorithm, which minimizes the functional of distances between the points (X, Y, H) and (x, y, h) corresponding to the theoretical and observed seismic wave travel times from the earthquake source to the recording stations. The determination of the coordinates of earthquake hypocenters is much more stable in this case than the usual minimization of the residual functional for the arrival time of an earthquake wave at a station (the difference between the theoretical and observed values). Since determination of the hypocenter coordinates can be influenced by the chosen velocity column beneath each station, special attention is focused on collecting information on velocity profiles. To evaluate the influence of the upper mantle on the results of calculating the velocity model, two different low-velocity and high-velocity models are used; the results are compared with each other. Both velocity models are set to a depth of 640 km, which is fundamentally important in determining hypocenters for deep earthquakes. Studies of the Crimea–Black Sea region have revealed more than 70 earthquakes with a source depth of more than 60 km. The adequacy of the obtained depth values is confirmed by the results of comparing the initial experimental data from the bulletins with the theoretical travel-time curves for earthquake sources with depths of 50 and 200 km. The sources of deep earthquakes found in the Crimea–Black Sea region significantly change our understanding of the structure and geotectonics of this region.     

Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M _S ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ M _S ≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p ) not on the following main shocks magnitude M _f suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.     

The unusual seismic activation in Eastern Prussia at the beginning of the 14th century and its importance for defining the seismic potential of the Kaliningrad oblast

The Kaliningrad earthquakes of September 21, 2004, were unpredicted and unprecedented in intensity. These features determine the necessity of a thorough search for the historical records on past strong seismic events in the region. Based on the discovered historical data, the paper analyzes the seismic activation at the beginning of the 14^th century. The historical event is parameterized and compared with the 2004 Kaliningrad earthquakes. An attempt is made to estimate the seismic potential of the region and to clarify the main features of its long-term seismic regime.     

Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …     

Seismic Monitoring of Poland–Description and Results of Temporary Seismic Project with Mobile Seismic Network

The paper describes a temporary seismic project aimed at developing the national database of natural seismic activity for seismic hazard assessment, officially called “Monitoring of Seismic Hazard of Territory of Poland” (MSHTP). Due to low seismicity of Poland, the project was focused on events of magnitude range 1–3 in selected regions in order to maximize the chance of recording any natural event. The project used mobile seismic stations and was divided into two stages.Five-year measurements brought over one hundred natural seismic events of magnitudes M_L range 0.5–3.8. Most of them were located in the Podhale region in the Carpathians. Together with previously recorded events this made it possible to conduct a preliminary study on ground motion prediction equation for this region. Only one natural event, of magnitude M_L = 3.8, was recorded outside the Carpathians in a surprising location in central-west Poland.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 3.1–4.7 earthquakes in the southern Baltic Sea and adjacent areas in 2000, 2001 and 2004

The area south and east of the Baltic Sea has very minor seismic activity. However, occasional events occur as illustrated by four events in recent years, which are analysed in this study: near Wittenburg, Germany, on May 19, 2000, M _w = 3.1, near Rostock, Germany, on July 21, 2001, M _w = 3.4 and in the Kaliningrad area, Russia, two events on September 21, 2004 with M _w = 4.6 and 4.7. Locations, magnitudes (M _L and M _w) and focal mechanisms were determined for the two events in Germany. Synthetic modeling resulted in a well-confined focal depth for the Kaliningrad events. The inversion of macroseismic observations provided simultaneous solutions of the location, focal depth and epicentral intensity. The maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations obtained from focal mechanism solutions, approximately N–S for the two German events and NNW–SSE for the Kaliningrad events, show a good agreement with the regionally oriented crustal stress field.     

About conditions of forming recurrence curves and the assessment of long-term and current (expected) seismic hazards

The blocked structure of geophysical medium and the values of limit magnitudes and deformations in the an earthquake source (Sadovskii, 1979; Sadovskii and Pisarenko, 1991), which depend on the block structure, have been the basis for the Earth’s crust model. The model includes 18 orders (1–18) of the structures whose dimensions are connected with one another in a nonrandom way and reflect the coefficient of similarity k = √10 characteristic of tectonic blocks, interblock boundaries, and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Bugaev, 1999; Bugaev and Spivak, 2002). The relation of sizes of constituent structures of the model is described by a geometric progression: with a growth in the order of structure by 1, a ratio of sizes of the N _i and N _{i + 1} structures increases by k times and vice versa. If length logarithms of structures are considered, their properties are described by an arithmetic progression with the difference d = 0.5. This made it possible to formalize the size assessment of n first constituent structures of the earth’s crust model (with due account of a size of the maximum structure of a region) and determination of their frequency with allowance for a period of long-term geodynamic and seismic stability of the territory under study. The model was used (i) for estimating possible limits of change in the observed earthquake recurrence curves taking into account the dependences, reflecting a relation of limit magnitudes and the size of earthquake source, and conditions of its preparation and manifestation, and also (ii) for forecasting the earthquake recurrence curves based on geodynamic data (extension of a zone, strain rate in a zone, frequency distribution of extents of active faults or zones). The comparison of forecasted and observed data for the site of placement of the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant before and after the March 11, 2011 earthquake with M _W = 8.9 allowed us to establish the regional and local features of the seismic process and to estimate the long-term and current seismic dangers according to geodynamic and seismological data.     

Assessment of seismic hazard in the North Caucasus

The seismicity of the North Caucasus is the highest in the European part of Russia. The detection of potential seismic sources here and long-term prediction of earthquakes are extremely important for the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk in this densely populated and industrially developed region of the country. The seismogenic structures of the Iran-Caucasus-Anatolia and Central Asia regions, adjacent to European Russia, are the subjects of this study. These structures are responsible for the specific features of regional seismicity and for the geodynamic interaction with adjacent areas of the Scythian and Turan platforms. The most probable potential sources of earthquakes with magnitudes M = 7.0 ± 0.2 and 7.5 ± 0.2 in the North Caucasus are located. The possible macroseismic effect of one of them is assessed.     

Migration of seismic activity during the 1998 volcanic unrest at Iwate volcano,northeastern Japan,with reference to P and S wave velocity anomaly and crustal deformation

We describe the seismicity at Iwate volcano, northeastern Japan, during the volcanic unrest of 1998 with reference to a three-dimensional P and S wave velocity model from tomographic analysis. The abnormal seismic activity beneath Iwate volcano started under the caldera in February, 1998 and migrated westward in the period February to August, 1998. Previous geodetic modeling [Sato and Hamaguchi, Chikyu Monthly 21 (1999) 312–317] suggested the growth of a dike in the time of the seismic activity. Comparing the seismicity and dike extension with the tomographic images of the P and S wave velocity structure, we find that the trace of the growing dike coincides with the region of the high V_p and high V_p/V_s ratio beneath the volcano. The seismic and geodetic data are consistent with an intrusion of magma or other fluid under the caldera in 1998. Another pressure source causing the predominant crustal deformation at Iwate volcano was detected from geodetic data, which was located in the region with high V_p/V_s ratio under the western end of the volcano through the period from February to August. It is suggested that the activation of the point pressure source probably associated with the inflation of a hot fluid reservoir relate to a geothermal region adjacent to the western edge of the volcano.     

Local magnitude,surface wave magnitude and seismic energy

Summary The local magnitude M_L at the seismological station Pruhonice (PRU) was converted into surface wave magnitude M_S using the formula M_S=–3.2+1.45 M_L and the seismic wave energy was estimated using the relation log E (Joule)=1.2+2.0 M_L. It was proposed to apply the same conversion formulae at seismological stations Kaperské Hory (KHC) and Berggiesshübel (BRG) where the calibrating functions for local magnitudes were determined for the same set of earthquakes with common reference magnitudes as in the case of the PRU station.     

Earthquake strong motions recorded by a large near-source array of digital seismographs

Specially designed arrays of strong-motion seismographs near to the earthquake source are required for seismological and engineering studies of the generation and near-field properties of seismic waves. The first such large digital array, called SMART 1 (with radius 2 km and 37 accelerometers), to record substantial ground motion (up to 0·24g horizontal acceleration) became operational in late 1980 in a highly seismic region of Taiwan. During the first 6 months of operation, SMART 1 recorded nine earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from M_L 3·8 to 6·9. Three were located directly below the array at focal depths of 59 to 76 km. The remaining six had shallow depths and epicentral distances from 7 to 193 km. Digital records from 27 three-component accelerographs were obtained from a magnitude 6·9 (M_L) local earthquake on 29 January 1981. Representative measurements are described of seismic wave coherency and power spectrum as a function of wave number, frequency, azimuth of propagation and wave type. Acceleration waveforms varied significantly across the array for each event. On average, peak acceleration of horizontal components was about three times that of the vertical component. Relative spectral changes from earthquake to earthquake were large.     

Characterization of the seismogenic process in the Aleutian island arc: I. Source relations of the large earthquakes of 1957, 1986, and 1996 in the Andreanof Islands

An interpretation of the type, size, and interrelations of sources is proposed for the three large Aleutian earthquakes of March 9, 1957, May 7, 1986, and June 10, 1996, which occurred in structures of the Andreanof Islands. According to our interpretation, the earthquakes were caused by steep reverse faults confined to different structural units of the southern slope of the Andreanof Islands and oriented along the strike of these structures. An E-W reverse fault that generated the largest earthquake of 1957 is located within the Aleutian Terrace and genetically appears to be associated with the development of the submarine Hawley Ridge. The western and eastern boundaries of this source are structurally well expressed by the Adak Canyon in the west (～177°W) and an abrupt change in isobaths in the east (～173°W). The character of the boundaries is reflected in the focal mechanisms. The source of the earthquake of 1957 extends for about 300 km, which agrees well with modern estimates of its magnitude (M _w = 8.6). Because the earthquake of 1957 caused, due to its high strength, seismic activation of adjacent areas of the Aleutian island arc, its aftershock zone appreciably exceeded in size the earthquake source. Reverse faults that activated the seismic sources of the earthquakes of 1986 and 1996 were located within the southern slope of the Andreanof Islands, higher than the Aleutian Terrace, outside the seismic source of the 1957 earthquake. The boundaries of these sources are also well expressed in structures and focal mechanisms. According to our estimate, the length of the 1986 earthquake source does not exceed 130–140 km, which does not contradict its magnitude (M _w = 8). The length of the 1996 earthquake source is ～100 km, which also agrees with the magnitude of the earthquake (M _w = 7.8).     

Study of Local Seismic Events in Lithuania and Adjacent Areas Using Data from the PASSEQ Experiment

The territory of Lithuania and adjacent areas of the East European Craton have always been considered a region of low seismicity. Two recent earthquakes with magnitudes of more than 5 in the Kaliningrad District (Russian Federation) on 21 September 2004 motivated re-evaluation of the seismic hazard in Lithuania and adjacent territories. A new opportunity to study seismicity in the region is provided by the PASSEQ (Pasive Seismic Experiment) project that aimed to study the lithosphere–asthenosphere structure around the Trans-European Suture Zone. Twenty-six seismic stations of the PASSEQ temporary seismic array were installed in the territory of Lithuania. The stations recorded a number of local and regional seismic events originating from Lithuania and adjacent areas. This data can be used to answer the question of whether there exist seismically active tectonic zones in Lithuania that could be potentially hazardous for critical industrial facilities. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to find any natural tectonic seismic events in Lithuania and to obtain more general view of seismicity in the region. In order to do this, we make a manual review of the continuous data recorded by the PASSEQ seismic stations in Lithuania. From the good quality data, we select and relocate 45 local seismic events using the well-known LocSAT and VELEST location algortithms. In order to discriminate between possible natural events, underwater explosions and on-shore blasts, we analyse spatial distribution of epicenters and temporal distribution of origin times and perform both visual analysis of waveforms and spectral analysis of recordings. We show that the relocated seismic events can be grouped into five clusters (groups) according to their epicenter coordinates and origin and that several seismic events might be of tectonic origin. We also show that several events from the off-shore region in the Baltic Sea (at the coasts of the Kaliningrad District of the Russian Federation) are non-volcanic tremors, although the origin of these tremor-type events is not clear.     

The Kaliningrad, West Russia earthquakes on the 21st of September 2004—Surprise events in a very low-seismicity area

The earthquakes in Kaliningrad, West Russia on the 21st of September 2004 were unexpected in a seismically quiet area. The main shock of magnitude m_b = 5 was widely felt around the Baltic Sea. A comparison with some historic earthquakes in Northern Europe shows that its perceptibility area is smaller than that of the 1904 Oslo Graben earthquake of an estimated magnitude (M_L) 5.4 but larger than those of the 1759 Kattegat and 1819 Lurøy earthquakes. The latter are claimed to have had magnitudes (M_S) in the range of 5.7-6.0. An analysis of the Lg phase of the Kaliningrad earthquakes as recorded at a number of European stations accords only weakly with the macroseismic intensity pattern that shows fast attenuation towards west-northwest and southeast. The strike-slip focal mechanism of the main shock is discussed in the context of remnant glacial rebound stresses in generating present-day seismicity in N. Europe.     

Seismic activation of tectonic stresses by mining

Hard coal mining in the area of the Bytom Syncline (Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland) has been associated with the occurrence of high-energy seismic events (up to 10⁹ J; local magnitude up to 4.0), which have been recorded by the local mining seismological network and regional seismological network. It has been noticed that the strongest seismic events occur when the mine longwall alignments coincide with the syncline axis. Data recorded by the improved local seismic network in the Bobrek Mine allow the estimation of the depths of the events’ hypocentres during excavation of longwall panel 3 as it approached the syncline axis. The recorded data were also used to estimate the location of the rupture surface and stress distribution in the seismic focus region. It was concluded that tectonic stresses, particularly horizontal stress components, are essential in the distribution of seismic tremors resulting from reverse faulting. The stresses induced by mining activity are only triggering tectonic deformations. The hypocentres of the strongest seismic events during mining of longwall panel 3/503 were located 300–800 m deeper than the level of coal seam 503.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.