Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment

Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very difficult or impossible to overcome. The problem is that most of these methods cannot be adequately tested and evaluated either because of (a) lack of a precise definition of “prediction” and/or (b) shortage of data for meaningful statistical verification. This is not the case for the pattern recognition algorithm M8 designed in 1984 for prediction of great, Magnitude 8, earthquakes, hence its name. By 1986, the algorithm was rescaled for applications aimed at smaller magnitude earthquakes, down to M5+ range, and since then it has become a useful tool for systematic monitoring of seismic activity in a number of test seismic regions worldwide. After confirmed predictions of both the 1988 Spitak (Armenia) and the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) earthquakes, a “rigid test” to evaluate the efficiency of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique has been designed. Since 1991, each half-year, the algorithm M8 alone and in combination with its refinement MSc has been applied in a real-time prediction mode to seismicity of the entire Earth, and this test outlines, where possible, the areas in the two approximations where magnitude 8.0+ and 7.5+ earthquakes are most likely to occur before the next update. The results of this truly global 20-year-old experiment are indirect confirmations of the existing common features of both the predictability and the diverse behavior of the Earth’s naturally fractal lithosphere. The statistics achieved to date prove (with confidence above 99 %) rather high efficiency of the M8 and M8-MSc predictions limited to intermediate-term middle- and narrow-range accuracy. These statistics support the following general conclusions—(1) precursory seismic patterns do exist; (2) the size of an area where precursory seismic patterns show up is much larger than that of the source zone of the incipient target earthquake; (3) many precursory seismic patterns appear to be similar, even in regions of fundamentally different tectonic environments; and (4) some precursory seismic patterns are analogous to those in advance of extreme catastrophic events in other complex nonlinear systems (e.g., magnetic storms, solar flares, “starquakes”, etc.)—that are of high importance for further searches of the improved earthquake forecast/prediction algorithms and methods.     

The 1998 Hida Mountain, Central Honshu, Japan, earthquake swarm: Double-difference event relocation, frequency–magnitude distribution and Coulomb stress changes

By using the double-difference relocation technique, we have determined the fine structure of seismicity during the 1998 Hida Mountain earthquake swarm. The distribution of seismic activity defines two main directions (N–S and E–W) that probably correspond to the regional stress pattern. The detailed structure of seismicity reveals intense spatio-temporal clustering and earthquake lineations. Each cluster of events contains a mainshock and subsequent aftershock activity that decays according to the Omori law. The seismicity and the b-value temporal and spatial patterns reflect the evolution of the static stress changes during the earthquake swarm. About 80% of the swarm's best-relocated events occur in regions of increased ΔCFF. The smaller value of b found in the northern part of the swarm region and a larger b-value observed to the south, for the same period of time, could be well explained by the static stress changes caused by the larger events of the sequence. We argue that the state of stress in the crust is the main factor that controls the variation of b-value.     

Seismic activity at the western Pyrenean edge

The present-day seismicity at the westernmost part of the Pyrenean domain reported from permanent networks is of low to moderate magnitude. However, it is poorly constrained due to the scarce station coverage of the area. We present new seismic data collected from a temporary network deployed there for 17 months that provides an enhanced image of the seismic activity and its tectonic implications. Our results delineate the westward continuity of the E–W Pyrenean band of seismicity, through the Variscan Basque Massifs along the Leiza Fault, ending up at the Hendaya Fault. This seismicity belt is distributed on a crustal scale, dipping northward to almost 30 km depth. Other relevant seismic events located in the area can be related to the central segment of the Pamplona fault, and to different E–W thrust structures.     

Seismic reversal pattern for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, MW 7.6 earthquake

We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region: In search of precursor for the 26 December 2004 earthquake

We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so prominent prior to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 26 December 2004 though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990–1991) of increase in background seismicity; renewed seismicity, downward migration of seismic activity and foreshocks in 2002, just before the mainshock. Spatial variation in b-value with time indicates precursory changes in the form of high b-value zone near the epicenter preceding the mainshocks of 2004 and 2002 and temporal rise in b-value in the epicentral area before the 2002 earthquake.     

Post-2004 mega-earthquake temporal velocity variation at Andaman Islands from GPS measurements

Post-mega-earthquake velocity adjustment at Andaman region was found to vary with time. Coordinate repeatability for 5-year span shows changeover from post-seismic to inter-seismic period in between 900 and 1,000 days from the mega-earthquake. Excluding Havlock Island, all sites move from south to north and from east to west. Velocity vectors gradually rotated from the nearly perpendicular orientation after the mega-earthquake to parallel orientation with the subduction interface in later phase. Velocities in India 2005 reference frame indicate the presence of a structural discontinuity between Bedonabad and Chidiatapu at south Andaman, between Padmanavapuram and Kaushalyanagar at middle Andaman and between Aerial Bay and Radhanagar at north Andaman.     

Misattributed tsunami: Chile, Sumatra and the subduction model

Tsunami intensity is poorly correlated with earthquake magnitude. The distribution of aftershocks that immediately followed the 2010 Maule (Chile), the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman and the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) events supports the view that faulting within an accretionary wedge or an outer rise can sometimes disrupt the seafloor more effectively than a megathrust even if the associated seismicity is minor. Monitoring offshore faults would thus seem an effective way to supplement modes of tsunami early warning which hinge on instrumental earthquake detection or wave height and period.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

Local seismic array observations at north Evoikos, central Greece, delineate crustal deformation between the North Aegean Trough and Corinthiakos Rift

In order to better constrain and define the microseismic activity at the north Evoikos Gulf and its surrounding area we deployed an onshore/offshore seismic array consisting of 31 three-component seismic digital stations. The array was active from 30 June to 24 October 2003, and covered an area of 2500 km². We located more than 2000 seismic events ranging from 0.7 to 4.5 M_L by using six stations as a minimum in order to define the foci parameters. Recorded seismicity delineated three major zones of deformation: from south to north, the Eretria–Parnis–eastern Corinthiakos zone, the Psachna–Viotia zone, and the Northern Sporades–North Evia–Bralos zone. Alignments of the recorded seismicity follow the tectonic trends and their orientation in the above zones. The whole area accommodates the stress field between the North Aegean Trough and the Corinthiakos Gulf. Rate of deformation intensifies from north to south, as revealed also by historical and instrumental seismicity. The successive change of orientation between the two stress fields fragments the crust in relatively small units and the fault systems developed do not permit the generation of major earthquakes in the north Evoikos area and its immediate vicinity. This is also supported by the instrumental seismicity of the last century. Larger events reported in historical times are probably overestimated.Most seismic activity is crustal. Subcrustal events were recorded mainly below the Lichades area and are interpreted as the consequence of the subduction of the Ionian oceanic lithosphere below the Hellenides. The Lichades volcano is the most northern end of the Hellenic volcanic arc.At present the highest seismic activity is associated with the Psachna region of north Evia that has been continuously active since 2001. Considering, however, the development of the seismic activity during the last decade, there has been a sequence of large events, i.e., Parnis in 1999, Skyros in 2001 and Psachna in 2001–2003. This demonstrates the fact that the tectonic deformation in all this area is intense and important for the accommodation of the stress field of the North Aegean Trough to that of the Corinthiakos Rift.     

Structure of the upper mantle in the Circum-Arctic region from regional seismic tomography

We present a new three-dimensional model of P-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle beneath the Circum-Arctic region based on tomographic inversion of global data from the catalogues of the International Seismological Center (ISC, 2007). We used travel times of seismic waves from events located in the study area which were recorded by the worldwide network, as well as data from remote events registered by stations in the study region. The obtained mantle seismic anomalies clearly correlate with the main lithosphere structures in the Circum-Arctic region. High-velocity anomalies down to 250–300 km depth correspond to Precambrian thick lithosphere plates, such as the East European Platform with the adjacent shelf areas, Siberian Plate, Canadian Shield, and Greenland. It should be noted that lithosphere beneath the central part of Greenland appears to be strongly thinned, which can be explained by the effect of the Iceland plume which passed under Greenland 50–60 million years ago. Beneath Chukotka, Yakutia, and Alaska we observe low-velocity anomalies which represent weak and relatively thin actively deformed lithosphere. Some of these low-velocity areas coincide with manifestations of Cenozoic volcanism. A high-velocity anomaly at 500–700 km depth beneath Chukotka may be a relic of the subduction zone which occurred here about 100 million years ago. In the oceanic areas, the tomography results are strongly inhomogeneous. Beneath the North Atlantic, we observe very strong low-velocity anomalies which indicate an important role of the Iceland plume and active rifting in the opening of the oceanic basin. On the contrary, beneath the central part of the Arctic Ocean, no significant anomalies are observed, which implies a passive character of rifting.     

Seismicity, gravity anomalies and lithospheric structure of the Andaman arc, NE Indian Ocean

The Andaman arc in the northeastern Indian Ocean defines nearly 1100 km long active plate margin between the India and Burma plates where an oblique Benioff zone develops down to 200 km depth. Several east-trending seismologic sections taken across the Andaman Benioff Zone (ABZ) are presented here to detail the subduction zone geometry in a 3-D perspective. The slab gravity anomaly, computed from the 3-D ABZ configuration, is a smooth, long-wavelength and symmetric gravity high of 85 mGal amplitude centering to the immediate east of the Nicobar Island, where, a prominent gravity “high” follows the Nicobar Deep. The Slab-Residual Gravity Anomaly (SRGA) and Mantle Bouguer Anomaly (MBA) maps prepared for the Andaman plate margin bring out a double-peaked SRGA “low” in the range of − 150 to − 240 mGal and a wider-cum-larger MBA “low” having the amplitude of − 280 to − 315 mGal demarcating the Andaman arc–trench system. The gravity models provide evidences for structural control in propagating the rupture within the lithosphere. The plate margin configuration below the Andaman arc is sliced by the West Andaman Fault (WAF) as well as by a set of sympathetic faults of various proportions, often cutting across the fore-arc sediment package. Some of these fore-arc thrust faults clearly give rise to considerably high post-seismic activity, but the seismic incidence along the WAF further east is comparatively much less particularly in the north, although, the lack of depth resolution for many of the events prohibits tracing the downward continuity of these faults. Tectonic correlation of the gravity-derived models presented here tends to favour the presence of oceanic crust below the Andaman–Nicobar Outer Arc Ridge.     

Lithospheric gravitational instability beneath the Southeast Carpathians

The Southeast corner of the Carpathians, known as the Vrancea region, is characterised by a cluster of strong seismicity to depths of about 200 km. The peculiar features of this seismicity make it a region of high geophysical interest. In this study we calculate the seismic strain-rate tensors for the period 1967–2007, and describe the variation of strain-rate with depth. The observed results are compared with strain-rates predicted by numerical experiments. We explore a new dynamical model for this region based on the idea of viscous flow of the lithospheric mantle permitting the development of local continental mantle downwelling beneath Vrancea, due to a Rayleigh–Taylor instability that has developed since the cessation of subduction at 11 Ma. The model simulations use a Lagrangean frame 3D finite-element algorithm solving the equations of conservation of mass and momentum for a spatially varying viscous creeping flow. The finite deformation calculations of the gravitational instability of the continental lithosphere demonstrate that the Rayleigh–Taylor mechanism can explain the present distribution of deformation within the downwelling lithosphere, both in terms of stress localisation and amplitude of strain-rates. The spatial extent of the high stress zone that corresponds to the seismically active zone is realistically represented when we assume that viscosity decreases by at least an order of magnitude across the lithosphere. The mantle downwelling is balanced by lithospheric thinning in an adjacent area which would correspond to the Transylvanian Basin. Crustal thickening is predicted above the downwelling structure and thinning beneath the basin.     

A dynamic model of the Hellenic Arc deduced from geophysical data

Combined gravity and seismic data from Greece and the adjacent areas have been used to explain the high seismicity and tectonic activity of this area. Computed 2-D gravity models revealed that below the Aegean region a large “plume” of hot upper-mantle material is rising, causing strong attenuation of the crust. The hot “plume” extends to the base of the lithosphere and has very probably been mobilized through compressional processes that forced the lithosphere to sink into the asthenosphere. The above model is supported by: high heat flow in the Aegean region; low velocity of the compressional waves of 7.7 km/sec for the upper mantle; lower density than normal extending to the base of the lithosphere; teleseismic P-wave travel-time residuals of the order of +2 sec for seismic events recorded at the Greek seismic stations; volcanics in the Aegean area with a chemical composition which can be explained by assuming an assimilation of oceanic crust by the upper mantle; deep seismicity (200 km) which has been interpreted by various authors as a Benioff zone.     

Zones of the origin of seismic centers in the Pamir–Tien Shan sector of High Asia

The zones of the origin of seismic centers within highly seismic areas of the Pamirs and Tien Shan are established. The majority of catastrophic earthquakes coincide with them in this part of High Asia. Their establishment is based on the distribution of the most intensive epicenters and the maximal volumes of the seismic energy together with its calculation and forecasting of the possible manifestations of high seismicity. The investigation of the deep structure of these zones allows us to determine the connection of the seismicity with geophysical field anomalies and some factors of the deep and near surface lithosphere and crust structure, which influence the present-day geodynamics. The results of our research enable us to appreciate the level of the seismic danger in different parts of the region investigated.     

Variations of Seismicity in the Avachinsky Gulf (Kamchatka, Russia)

Variations of seismic mode in the region of the Avachinsky Gulf (Kamchatka, Russia) are considered. Observed anomalies (seismic quiescence, the ring seismicity, reduction of the slope of the earthquake recurrence diagram) provide a basis to consider this region as a place of strong earthquake preparation. The Kamchatka regional catalogues of earthquakes between 1962–1995 were used in the analysis. A reduced seismicity rate is observed during 10 years in an area of 150 km × 60 km in size. During the last five years, in the vicinity of the area considered, earthquakes with M > 5 occurred three times more often than the average over thirty years. It is interpreted as ring seismicity. The block of 220 km × 220~km in size, including the quiescence zone, is characterized by a continuous decrease of the recurrence diagram slope, which has reached a minimum value for the last 33 years in this region.     

Metallogeny of accretionary orogens — The connection between lithospheric processes and metal endowment

Accretionary orogens throughout space and time represent extremely fertile settings for the formation and preservation of a wide variety of mineral deposit types. These range from those within active magmatic arcs, either in continental margin or intra-oceanic settings, to those that develop in a variety of arc-flanking environments, such as fore-arcs and back-arcs during deformation and exhumation of the continental margin. Deposit types also include those that form in more distal, far back-arc and foreland basin settings. The metallogenic signature and endowment of individual accretionary orogens are, at a fundamental level, controlled by the nature, composition and age of the sub-continental lithosphere, and a complex interplay between formational processes and preservational forces in an evolving Earth. Some deposit types, such as orogenic gold and volcanic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits, have temporal patterns that mimic the major accretionary and crustal growth events in Earth history, whereas others, such as porphyry Cu–Au–Mo and epithermal Au–Ag deposits, have largely preservational patterns. The presence at c. 3.4 Ga of (rare) orogenic gold deposits, whose formation necessitates some form of subduction–accretion, provides strong evidence that accretionary processes operated then at the margins of continental nuclei, while the widespread distribution of orogenic gold and VMS deposits at c. 2.7–2.6 Ga reflects the global distribution of accretionary orogens by this time.     

Thermo-mechanical structure beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan

We investigate the thermo-mechanical properties beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan by constructing a shear strength profile from a vertical stratified rheological structure. The stratified rheological structure is estimated based on the recently developed thermal structure and its likely composition. Subduction–collision in the young orogenic belts and the thick accretionary wedge make a significant contribution to the growth of sialic crust in the hinterland. The sialic bulk crust not only results in a low seismic velocity but also produces weak crust in the hinterland. The earthquake depth–frequency distribution in the foreland and hinterland correlates very well with the regimes of the brittle/ductile transition revealed in the strength profile. Our results show that the observed two-layer seismicity in the foreland is due to a moderate geotherm and an intermediate mafic bulk composition; while single-layer seismicity in the hinterland is due to its felsic bulk composition. In the foreland, the mechanically strong crust (MSC) and the mechanically strong lithosphere (MSL) coincide with frequent seismicity. The shallow MSC in the hinterland is consistent with the 20- to 25-km seismicity occurring there. The total lithospheric integrated strength (LIS) in the hinterland is only about half of that in the foreland, suggesting a weak lower crust and lithosphere mantle in the hinterland. The results confirm that the earthquake cutoff depth is a proxy for temperature. The calculated decrease of effective elastic thickness (EET) from the orogenic margin (foreland) to the center (hinterland) is consistent with the results of flexure modeling in most orogenic belts. Due to the weak LIS in the hinterland, crustal thinning and rifting may occur in the future. Our results, thus, suggest that the mechanical structure is also closely related to the composition and is not directly reflected in the thermal structure.     

Buoyancy‐driven deformation and contemporary tectonic stress in the lithosphere beneath Central Italy

We studied the continental deformation and modelled the contemporary flow and stress distribution in the lithosphere beneath Central Italy. We made use of a revisited crust and uppermost mantle Earth structure that supports delamination processes. The model behaviour is primarily determined by the thick high density lithospheric root to the east and the low‐viscosity shallow mantle wedge to the west. The rate of the modeled crustal motion is in agreement with GPS data and the pattern of lithospheric flow explains the heat flux, the regional geology and provides a new background for the genesis and age of the recent Tuscan magmatism. The modelled stress in the lithosphere is spatially correlated with the prevailing stress field and the gravitational potential energy patterns and shows that buoyancy forces, solely, can explain the coexisting regional contraction and extension and the unusual sub‐crustal seismicity.     

Dependence of earthquake recurrence times and independence of magnitudes on seismicity history

The fulfillment of a scaling law for earthquake recurrence–time distributions is a clear indication of the importance of correlations in the structure of seismicity. In order to characterize these correlations we measure conditional recurrence–time and magnitude distributions for worldwide seismicity as well as for Southern California during stationary periods. Disregarding the spatial structure, we conclude that the relevant correlations in seismicity are those of the recurrence time with previous recurrence times and magnitudes; in the latter case, the conditional distribution verifies a scaling relation depending on the difference between the magnitudes of the two events defining the recurrence time. In contrast, with our present resolution, magnitude seems to be independent on the history contained in the seismic catalogs (except perhaps for Southern California for very short time scales, less than about 30 min for the magnitude ranges analyzed).     

TOPO-OZ: Insights into the various modes of intraplate deformation in the Australian continent

As the fastest, lowest, flattest and amongst the most arid of continents, Australia preserves a unique geomorphic record of intraplate tectonic activity, evidencing at least three distinct modes of surface deformation since its rapid northward drift commenced around 43 million years ago. At long wavelengths (several 1000s km) systematic variations in the extent of Neogene marine inundation imply the continent has tilted north–down, southwest–up. At intermediate-wavelengths (several 100s km) several undulations of ~ 100–200 m amplitude have developed on the 1–10 myr timescale. At still shorter wavelengths (several 10s km), fault related motion has produced local relief at rates of up to ~ 100 m/myr over several million years. The long-wavelength, north–down tilting can be related to a dynamic topographic effect associated with Australia's northward drift from the geoid low, dynamic topography low now south of the continent to the geoid high, dynamic topography low centred above the south-east Asian and Melanesian subduction zones. The short wavelength, fault-related deformation is attributed in time to plate-wide increases in compressional stress levels as the result of distant plate boundary interactions and, in space, in part to variations in the thermal structure of the Australian lithosphere. At the intermediate wavelengths, transient, low amplitude undulations can be ascribed to either lithospheric buckling or the development of instabilities in the thermal boundary layer beneath the lithosphere. In the latter case, topographic asymmetries suggest the Australian lithosphere is moving north with respect to the mantle beneath, providing a unique attribution to the progressive alignment of seismic anisotropy and absolute plate motion observed near the base of the Australian lithosphere.