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1.
Ground‐motion intensity and damage map selection for probabilistic infrastructure network risk assessment using optimization 下载免费PDF全文
In many parts of the world, earthquakes threaten regional infrastructure systems. For modeling risk using stochastic earthquake catalogs, random variables include rupture location and the damage state of different components. Thus, there is an infinite set of possible damage maps that a risk modeler could evaluate in an event‐based probabilistic loss model. Even a finite but large number of damage maps may not be practical, because many network performance measures are computationally expensive. Here, we show a computationally efficient method for selecting a subset of damage maps, corresponding ground‐motion intensity maps, and associated occurrence rates that reasonably estimates the full distribution of the ground‐motion intensity and a target performance measure using optimization. The method chooses a subset of maps and associated annual rates of occurrence that minimizes the error in estimating the distribution of a network performance measure as well as the marginal distributions of ground‐motion intensity exceedance. The joint distribution of the ground‐motion intensity is implicitly included in the objective function of the optimization problem via the network performance measure. We then show how to tune the optimization parameters based on consistency checks related to the network performance measure and the ground‐motion hazard. We illustrate the proposed method with a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area road network to estimate the exceedance curve of the average percentage change in morning commute trip time. This work facilitates expanded and risk‐consistent studies of the impacts of infrastructure networks on regional seismic risk and resiliency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
近年来我国发生的几次大地震有一些是发生在低烈度区,对地震区已有的建筑物应当怎样来评价它的抗震能力,本文对此进行了探索性的研究。通过将破坏概率离散化得出一次地震中各烈度下震害指数的均值和方差,对比其与标准震害矩阵相应烈度下的值,得到其他烈度下震害指数的均值和方差。我们假设各烈度下震害指数分布都服从Beta分布,由均值和方差反算出Beta分布的未知参数,从而得出其他烈度下各破坏等级的概率值。用本文方法得到的震害矩阵,可为该地区的震害预测和经济损失评估提供科学依据。计算结果表明,本文的方法是可行的。 相似文献
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Critical issues in emergency management after a seismic event are assessing the functionality of the main infrastructures (hospitals, road network, etc.) and deciding on their usability just after the mainshock. The use of a pure analytical tool to assess the aftershock risk of a structure can be contrasted with the limited time available to make a decision about the usability of a structure. For this reason, this paper presents a method for evaluating post‐earthquake bridge practicability based on a rational combination of information derived from numerical analyses and in situ inspections. In particular, we propose an effective tool to speed up the decision‐making process involved in evaluating the seismic risk of mainshock‐damaged bridges in the context of aftershocks. The risk is calculated by combining the aftershock hazard using the Omori law and the fragility curves of the structure, which are calculated using the regression analysis of a sample of results obtained with data randomly generated by the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique and updated based on the results of in situ inspection. Different decision criteria regarding the practicability of bridges are discussed, and a new criterion is proposed. This tool was applied to an old highway RC viaduct. There are two main findings, including the high sensitivity to Bayesian updating (especially when the damage predicted by numerical analysis does not match the real damage) and the criteria used to decide when re‐open bridges to traffic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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分析研究了1997-1998年伽师强震群活动期间阿困什余震窗和喀什地震窗月频、旬频、日频的异常特征。结果表明,两地震窗的异常形态具有一定的相似性,起止时间也具有同步性。月频度异常形态多经过2-3个峰值后在高值发震;旬频率、日频率异常形态则表现为高值-低值-发震;日频度异常出现在震前1-3d。通过对比分析伽师强震群1997年和1998年的活动特征发现,阿图什余震窗和喀什余震窗在1997年几组后续6级地震前小震日频率均在指数衰减背景上明显升高,而1998年2组强震前指数衰减背景不明显。 相似文献
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收集2008年以来海南测震台网记录的M_L 2.5以上地震及爆破资料,利用Brune圆盘模型,计算得出震源参数,发现地震、爆破的震源参数特征为:地震的拐角频率绝大多数大于爆破;地震应力降大于1,爆破应力降小于1;地震震源尺度绝大多数小于爆破。对一个有感疑爆事件,利用其拐角频率、应力降、震源尺度等参数,判定该事件为天然地震,与前人研究结果一致。由此可见,利用震源参数在地震速报、日常分析中判定事件类型具有实际意义。 相似文献
8.
Hideji Kawakami 《地震工程与结构动力学》1990,19(8):1153-1165
The connectivity of lifeline systems is studied in this paper in terms of two ratios: ‘damage ratio’, which is the degree of physical damage to the system, and is defined as the expected number of failures per unit length or per link; and ‘service ratio’, which is a measurement of system operation. First, the relationship between the two ratios in a historic event is examined. Second, a method is developed for determining this relationship in simple network systems immediately following an earthquake. Density function, expected value and covariance of service ratio are calculated as functions of the damage ratio. Even in a simple checkerboard-type network, the density function of the service ratio has two peaks. Third, the variation in reliability of the network is examined with respect to difference in scale and configuration of the network, which may accompany growth of the community. When the damage ratio is small, the service ratio of a complex network is as large as, or larger, than that of a simple network. This pattern is, however, reversed for larger damage ratios. Finally, the relationship prior to operation restoration is examined. During the initial stages of restoration, the service ratio increases steeply, almost linearly, with decrease in the damage ratio. The increase then slows in the last stages of restoration. 相似文献
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Louise Wedderkopp Bjerrum Kuvvet Atakan Mathilde Bøttger Sørensen 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(6):1569-1601
The M
w = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, caused destruction over a wide area. The earthquake cost more than 69,000 lives
and the damage is reported to have left more than 5 million people homeless. It is estimated that 5.36 million buildings were
destroyed and 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and the nearby provinces. Economic losses due to the event are
estimated to be 124 billion USD. From a field reconnaissance trip conducted in October 2008, it is evident that the combination
of several factors, including mountainous landscape, strong ground shaking, extensive landslides and rock-falls, has exacerbated
the human and economic consequences of this earthquake. Extensive damage occurred over a wide area due to the shear size of
the earthquake rupture combined with poor quality building construction. In order to investigate the ground shaking during
the earthquake, we have conducted a strong ground motion simulation study, applying a hybrid broadband frequency technique.
The preliminary results show large spatial variation in the ground shaking, with the strongest ground motions along the fault
plane. The simulation results have been calibrated against the recorded ground motion from several near-field stations in
the area, and acceleration values of the order of 1 g are obtained, similar to what was recorded during the event. Comparison
with the damage distribution observed in the field confirms that the effect of fault rupture complexity on the resulting ground
motion distribution also controls to a large extent the damage distribution. The applied simulation technique provides a promising
platform for predictive studies. 相似文献
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合理的地震灾害经济可接受风险水平可以有效管理防灾减灾的投入。基于1991~2020年中国大陆地区地震灾害经济损失数据,利用F-D曲线法(Frequency-Damage curve),建立不同震级(MS<5.0、MS5.0~5.9、MS6.0~6.9和MS≥7.0)和不同灾情等级(微灾、小灾、中灾、大灾和巨灾)的地震灾害经济可接受风险曲线,并以此为标准讨论30年间由地震产生直接经济损失事件的可接受风险等级。研究结果表明:中国大陆地区地震灾害造成0.020亿元直接经济损失的灾损率不超过1.29×10-2/a为可接受经济风险,直接经济损失超过14.763亿元其灾损率为任意值均是不可接受经济风险。由此判断,30年间有18.07%的地震灾害属于不可接受经济风险事件。同理,不同震级和不同灾情等级地震灾害的可接受经济风险水平也被确定,并得到MS<5.0、MS5.0~5.9、MS6.0~6.9和MS 相似文献
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地球物理台网观测数据是反映前兆台网数据变化信息的重要部分,可为监测数据质量评估、地震分析预报会商、地震科学研究等工作提供科学依据。为充分利用这些保存在数据库中的事件数据记录,研制了基于MapSIS的地球物理台网事件可视化平台。该平台实现了事件记录的人工交互分析、自动统计分析,基于震情自动触发的专题报告自动生成等功能,具有功能全面、运行稳定的优点。该平台现已在全国地震前兆台网、地震分析预报会商中部署使用,可为地震分析预报提供科学可靠的信息服务。 相似文献
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1976年7月28日唐山MS7.8大地震对唐山及其周边地区造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失. 主震之后约15小时滦县又发生了MS7.1地震; 同年11月15日宁河也发生了MS6.9地震. 唐山MS7.8主震后的余震一直持续至今,使该区域至今保持了与主震前相比具有较高的地震活动性.如何估计余震的持续时间,并进一步将余震从主震目录中去除,一直是地震学中所关注的问题.该文通过对数线性回归和理论计算,从不同角度求取并讨论了1976年唐山MS7.8大地震的余震持续时间.结果表明,由对数线性回归计算得到的余震持续时间约为80 a.而基于Dieterich的余震触发理论所得到的余震持续时间则与区域剪应力变化率有关.区域剪应力变化率可有几种不同方法求得: ① 根据剪应力变化率和静态应力降Delta;tau;e及地震回复周期tr之间的关系求取应力变化率,该方法所得到的余震持续时间约为70——100 a;② Ziv和Rubin对Dieterich的方法进行了修正,给出了通过远场加载速率和断层宽度求取应力变化率, 该方法得到的余震持续时间约为80 a;③ 由背景场地震活动性求取远场剪应力速率, 可以得到该地区二维分布式的余震持续时间,此方法得到的研究区域内余震持续时间为130——160 a.综上,唐山地区余震持续时间约为70——140 a,据此, 该地区现今所发生的地震仍为MS7.8唐山地震所触发的余震. 相似文献
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本文运用分维的概念和方法,对我国部分强震前地震活动时间分维,前震震群活动时间分维,7级以上大地震的余震活动时间分维和小震群活动时间分维进行了计算。初步结果表明,同一类型的地震活动(如强震前较大时空范围内地震活动、强震的余震、前震震群、小震群等类型)的时间分维十分相近,而不同类型地震活动的时间分维存在着差异,一般说来,强震前的地震活动比较普遍地存在降维现象,表现出临近强震时,震源及附近地区地震活动时间结构的有序性增强。这为地震预报开辟了一个新的途径。 相似文献
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The evaluation of the potential impact of strong seismic events shortly after their occurrence is a critical step to organise emergency response and consequently minimise the adverse effects of earthquakes. The estimation of the impact from earthquakes considering the observed ground shaking from past events can be useful for the calibration of existing exposure and/or fragility and vulnerability models. This study describes a methodology to combine the publicly available information from the USGS ShakeMap system and the open-source software OpenQuake engine for the assessment of damage and losses. This approach is employed to estimate the number of structural collapses considering the 2012 Magnitude 5.9 Emilia-Romagna (Italy) earthquake and the aggregated economic loss because of the 2010 Magnitude 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) event. Several techniques to calculate the ground shaking in the affected region considering the spatial and interperiod correlations in the intra-event ground motion residuals are investigated and their influence in the resulting damage or loss estimates are evaluated. 相似文献
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Historically, large and potentially hazardous earthquakes have occurred within the interior of Alaska. However, most have not been adequately studied using modern methods of waveform modeling. The 22 July 1937, 16 October 1947, and 7 April 1958 earthquakes are three of the largest events known to have occurred within central Alaska (M
s
=7.3,M
s
=7.2 andM
s
=7.3, respectively). We analyzed teleseismic body waves to gain information about the focal parameters of these events. In order to deconvolve the source time functions from teleseismic records, we first attempted to improve upon the published focal mechanisms for each event. Synthetic seismograms were computed for different source parameters, using the reflectivity method. A search was completed which compared the hand-digitized data with a suite of synthetic traces covering the complete parameter space of strike, dip, and slip direction. In this way, the focal mechanism showing the maximum correlation between the observed and calculated traces was found. Source time functions, i.e., the moment release as a function of time, were then deconvolved from teleseismic records for the three historical earthquakes, using the focal mechanisms which best fit the data. From these deconvolutions, we also recovered the depth of the events and their seismic moments. The earthquakes were all found to have a shallow foci, with depths of less than 10 km.The 1937 earthquake occurred within a northeast-southwest band of seismicity termed the Salcha seismic zone (SSZ). We confirm the previously published focal mechanism, indicating strike-slip faulting, with one focal plane parallel to the SSZ which was interpreted as the fault plane. Assuming a unilateral fault model and a reasonable rupture velocity of between 2 and 3 km/s, the 21 second rupture duration for this event indicates that all of the 65 km long SSZ may have ruptured during this event. The 1947 event, located to the south of the northwest-southeast trending Fairbanks seismic zone, was found to have a duration of about 11 seconds, thus indicating a rupture length of up to 30 km. The rupture duration of the 1958 earthquake, which occurred near the town of Huslia, approximately 400 km ENE of Fairbanks, was found to be about 9 seconds. This gives a rupture length consistent with the observed damage, an area of 16 km by 64 km. 相似文献
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Hossein Ebrahimian Fatemeh Jalayer Domenico Asprone Anna M. Lombardi Warner Marzocchi Andrea Prota Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(14):2179-2197
Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Analysis of the problem of seismic event identification at an increased level of noise, by the data of a single sensor or
local group of sensors, is made. This problem is the key to development of an ultra-short-term warning system of an earthquake
that has occurred. Catastrophic damage and human deaths are usually caused by the sudden character of earthquake occurrence.
If data processing could be done rapidly (i.e., within 4–5 s), such an earthquake warning would be of value for decreasing
human deaths and economic damage. The aim of the present study is to investigate the selection of information features of
signals in order to reduce the feature dimensionality and to incorporate the particular features of self-contained systems.
Special emphasis is placed on the possibility of neural network techniques for the analysis of class separability in the attribute
space. Our system will be helpful for reducing the impact of a disastrous earthquake. The main problems are highlighted and
the methods for their solution are discussed; tests are carried out for a test problem, consisting in detection of small earthquakes
in a noise-contaminated record. It is intended to develop algorithms and programs for identification of earthquake phase arrivals
at an increased level of industrial and other noise. Further work will consist in designing instrumental solutions of the
system. 相似文献