张家湾水库大坝的渗流和稳定分析

以张家湾水库大坝为例,运用有限单元法对除险加固后均质土坝的渗流进行分析计算,同时运用瑞典圆弧滑动法和简化Bishop法对均质土坝的坝体稳定进行分析计算,在此基础上对水库大坝进行了渗流安全评价和稳定安全评价.     

浅谈广东省城市防洪排涝问题与对策

为充分发挥水库对防洪排涝的作用,以某水库工程为例,在对库区地质条件进行评价的基础上分析了水库在防洪排涝上存在的问题以及除险加固的必要性,并提出了对水库工程除险加固、确保水库能够正常蓄水、满足防洪要求、发挥水库的原有效益的对策及其具体实施方法,包括防洪排涝对策的主要原则,大坝除险加固和溢洪道、输水涵除险加固的具体实施方法,保障了水库后续的安全稳定运行。     

堰塞湖应急处置实践与认识

堰塞湖是由于山体滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等堵塞河道形成的没有经过专门设计、没有专门的泄水设施的湖泊,一旦溃决,容易给下游造成巨大的灾难。分析了堰塞湖的成因、溃决机理与风险判断,提出堰塞湖应急处置的原则、理念、阶段与处置方法,总结了堰塞湖应急处置中的一些经验和认识。以四川省汶川特大地震形成的堰塞湖应急处置为例,从可能溃决方式、溃坝洪水、应急除险总体方案、开渠引流方案和除险效果等方面,介绍了唐家山堰塞湖的应急处置实践,并简要介绍了其它一些堰塞湖应急处置。     

塑性混凝土防渗墙在山神庙水库中的应用

山神庙水库建成后一直带病运行。为解决水库的安全隐患，对水库大坝进行塑性混凝土防渗除险加固，彻底解决了水库大坝长期存在的渗漏问题，确保水库安全运行。     

基于河长制的水库除险加固策略探析

水库的长期运行,会出现逐渐老化、人为破坏、自然侵蚀等现象,增加了安全风险,在河长制的指导下,制定水库除险加固策略,以期增加水库安全性。水库除险加固策略分为两部分:一部分为诊断,对水库存在的病险进行分析;另一部分为加固,针对诊断分析结果制定并实施除险加固策略。结果表明:除险加固后较除险加固前,坝体稳定性系数提高了0.26,渗流系数降低了0.18,可达到除险加固目的。     

仙岭水库土坝渗流稳定分析及除险加固措施

根据湖南省仙岭水库的地质勘探资料,利用有限元进行计算分析,弄清了大坝的渗流情况,分析了大坝存在的渗漏和渗透变形问题,并提出了除险加固的措施,经过计算分析说明：所提出的措施是合理可靠的,所得出的结论可为同类土坝的安全鉴定、加固以及今后土坝设计、施工和管理提供借鉴。     

基于T-S模糊故障树的寒区水库大坝冻害风险分析

由于运营环境恶劣,寒区水库大坝会面临冰冻灾害频发且致灾因素众多等问题,严重影响大坝稳定运营,增大了安全风险隐患,并增加了整治维修成本。为有效预防大坝冻害发生,提升大坝风险管理水平,提出了一种基于T-S模糊故障树理论的寒区水库大坝冻害风险分析方法。以坝体不均匀变形、坝体渗漏加剧、面板冻害破坏为下级事件建立了T-S模糊故障树;同时通过底事件重要度计算对主要致险因素进行了分析;并将冻胀力学分析与T-S模糊故障树相结合,对红旗泡水库大坝面临的冻害风险进行了计算分析。研究发现诱发大坝冻害的主要风险因素包括反复冻融作用,库区水位波动、冰层堆积与风浪侵蚀,面板与坝体填筑质量缺陷和坝体防渗及保温措施不足等;同时,发现红旗泡水库大坝发生冻害风险的可能性较高,应进行风险排查与处理。应用结果表明,所提出的方法能科学合理地分析大坝冻害风险并确定关键致险因子,可为寒区水库大坝的冻害风险的识别、管理与决策提供技术支持,进而为大坝设计、施工、运营维护及冻害防治提供参考依据。     

某水库溃坝洪水模拟研究

大坝是水利工程中的重要设施之一,由于外界因素导致水库大坝发生溃坝破坏会严重影响到大坝的运行,溃坝洪水会对沿岸村落安全产生严重威胁。本文以某水库大坝为例建立溃坝模型,模拟溃坝洪水的流量、水位、发展等,设置不同的模拟方案,分别研究溃决水位、溃决历时、溃坝原因等因素对溃坝洪水的时程流量、沿程流量、沿程水位的影响,并运用溃坝洪水参数进一步分析洪水对沿岸村落的淹没情况。结果表明,溃决水位、溃决历时都是影响溃坝洪水的重要因素,且不同参数对溃坝洪水不同特性的影响规律也不尽相同。利用洪水抵达时间以及最高溃坝洪水水位可以估算出沿程村落的淹没情况,对后续沿线村民撤离及采取合理防洪措施具有重要意义。     

宿鸭湖水库洼地段坝后渗水的形成机制及治理

宿鸭湖水库是一座综合利用的平原大型水库,经７５．８特大洪水考验后暴露出坝基修漏及渗透稳定等诸多工程地质问题,本文通过对多次勘察及水库观测资料的整理分析,对洼地段坝前后渗水的形成机制进行了论证,指出坝基粉质粘土（Ⅲ）的大孔隙结构与坝后排渗设施不完善,年久失修是该段坝后渗水的主要原因,并提出治理措施,建议被设计部门采纳,大坝经加固除险施工,水库运行１５年来证明,大坝安全,水库运行正常。     

李金水库除险加固洪水调节计算与分析

李金水库位于绥中县大王庙镇境内小黄村王宝河支流上,是以调洪、灌溉为主,供水、养鱼为辅的小(一)型水库。目前,李金水库主要建筑物大坝、溢洪道、灌溉输水隧洞等工程均存在着程度不一、或大或小危及工程安全的问题,致使水库工程一直在带病运行。对李金水库工程进行除险加固建设迫在眉睫。文章就此分析了水库的洪水的的洪峰流量计洪水调节计算结果,为除险加固工程建设提供了详实的理论依据。     

Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir,China

The risk analysis of reservoir regulation in the flood season is crucial and provides the valuable information for reservoir flood control, safety operation, and decision making, especially under climate change. The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for reasonably estimating the variation of reservoir regulation risk including the dam extreme risk and the overtopping risk during the flood season under climate change. The framework consists of an integrated diagnostic system for detecting the climate abrupt change time, a copula function-based bivariate statistical approach for modeling the dependence between the flood peak and flood volume, a Monte Carlo simulation for generating numerous random flood peak–volume pairs, and a risk calculation model for routing the design flood hydrographs to obtain the frequency curve of the maximum water level reached in front of dam and evaluating the reservoir regulation risk. The methodology was implemented in the Chengbihe reservoir in south China by using the 55-year (1963–2017) hydrometeorological data, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and streamflow, in the flood season. Results show that the hydrometeorological series during the flood season changed abruptly in 1992 and the entire data can be divided into two periods (1963–1992 and 1993–2017). The dam extreme risk and overtopping risk during the two periods are assessed, respectively, and a comparison analysis is made based on different flood limit water-level schemes (185.00–188.50 m). It demonstrates that both the dam extreme risk and the dam overtopping risk increase under the influence of climate change. The dam extreme risk increases by 22.91–95.03%, while the climate change-induced increase in the dam overtopping risk is between 38.62 and 123.59%, which indicates that the dam overtopping risk is more sensitive to climate change than the dam extreme risk. The risk evaluations in the study are of great significance in the safety operation and risk management of reservoirs under future climate change.

     

Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam

In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability. In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors, are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally, the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam safety management.     

Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results

The present model and methodology described in Part I of this work are applied to perform a comprehensive risk analysis of the dam-break flood of five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin, China. The results indicate that the three-dimensional numerical simulation considering complex terrain can reflect the characteristics of flood routing and the three-dimensional phenomena. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that the risk grades of the consequences induced by a gradual or instantaneous dam break of the Dongwushi reservoir are extremely serious, as determined through the attribute synthetic approach. The results obtained from ranking the risk by the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution method are that the Dongwushi reservoir has the most serious consequences when the dam breaks followed by the Lincheng reservoir, the Miaogong reservoir and the Yunzhou reservoir, and the Youyi reservoir has the least severe consequences. Though the ranking of the relatively comprehensive risk coincides with that of the consequences, the dam safety measured by the dam failure probability plays an important role in ranking the risk. A sensitivity analysis is performed by individually increasing the weight of each criterion by 20 %, and the ranking order is not changed, suggesting that the evaluation model is reasonable, stable and reliable.     

金沙江干流水电工程区岸坡失稳危险性预测及防治对策

笔者通过调查研究和综合分析金沙江干流水电工程区岸坡地质背景和岩体力学环境条件，定性分析与定量评价相结合，采用与三峡工程库区岸坡失稳危险性评价相类比的方法，针对崩滑体失稳按总体积的1／8和1／11入江方量进行了计算和按美国土木工程学会涌浪图解计算法计算了入水点及在向家坝坝址、溪洛渡坝址和邻近城镇的涌浪高度，并围绕大坝施工安全、库区周边城镇安全，水库运营安全等方面对岸坡失稳的危险性进行了评价预测，提出了岸坡失稳的防治对策。评价结果表明，向家坝库区和溪洛渡库区土质岸坡坍塌及崩滑体入江和涌浪不会影响水库的正常运行及长期效益。     

Dynamic characteristics of tailings reservoir under seismic load

Earthquake is one of the most important factors that leads to the liquefaction of tailings and to the instability of the tailings reservoir. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the instability mechanism of the tailings reservoir under seismic load. In this study, the dynamic characteristics of the tailings reservoir under seismic load were investigated by carrying out a model test on the dynamic characteristics of the tailings dam. A model test of tailings dam failure and the dynamic characteristics model of the tailings reservoir under seismic load were established. Additionally, the dynamic characteristics under a seismic load were investigated. Additionally, the correctness of the dynamic characteristics model of the tailings reservoir was verified by numerical calculation. Researches show that with the increase in input peak acceleration, pore water pressure, earth pressure, and the horizontal and vertical displacements of the dam monitoring points are gradually increased. However, the acceleration amplification factor shows a declining trend. In the process of increasing the input peak acceleration, the saturation line and the lifting speed increases gradually. There is no obvious slip surface in the failure of the tailings dam, and the overall sliding is shown by the failure mode. The tailings reach each of the downstream sections. The mud height increases to the peak value, and then decreases gradually until stagnation. The results of this study can provide the theoretical basis and reference values for the stability analysis of a tailings reservoir under a seismic load, and the results are of great significance for controlling the risk factors in the operation of tailings reservoir, reducing the risk of tailings production safety, preventing the occurrence of tailing pond accidents, protecting the property safety of the downstream residents and enterprises, maintaining social stability around the reservoir area and creating a good ecological environment.     

库水位骤降后面板缺陷坝体渗漏量和坝坡稳定性分析

为研究库水位变动情况下面板不同缺陷的面板堆石坝渗透稳定特性,利用著名岩土分析软件Geo-studio的Seep/w与Slope/w模块,以浙江省临海市西部括苍镇境内某面板堆石坝为例,对不同土工膜缺陷及库水位变动工况的组合进行了渗流特性及稳定性的数值模拟分析,得到了浸润线,渗漏量及稳定性系数的变化曲线,计算结果表明:(1)面板一旦发生缺陷,静库水位下坝体的浸润线有一个明显的抬升,缺陷尺寸越大,浸润线高程越高,但是差异不大。库水位高程越高,静库水位下坝体内部的浸润线高程也就越高;(2)库水位水平越高,缺陷尺寸越大,坝体渗漏量也就越大;(3)库水位骤降下面板坝内部浸润线呈现先疏后密的规律,库水位下降速率越大,上游坝体浸润线疏的部分则越疏。在库水位骤降经过面板坝缺陷高程时,有一个浸润线突降的过程;(4)从整体上看,上游坝坡的稳定性系数要大于下游坝坡的稳定性系数;静库水位下,库水位水平越高,上游坝坡稳定性系数越大,而下游坝坡稳定性系数则越小,缺陷位置越高,稳定性系数越低;库水位骤降情况下上游坝坡稳定性系数随库水位下降呈现先下降后上升的趋势,下游坝坡则呈现一直上升的规律,一旦面板发生缺陷,稳定性系数较完整面板来说有一个较大幅度的下降,面板缺陷尺寸越大,稳定性系数整体上越小。     

硬填料坝应力计算方法探讨与特性分析

通过对一个100 m高典型硬填料坝的应力变形分析,指出坝体填筑过程和硬填料随龄期和应力状态变化的应力-应变特征的模拟对坝体应力变形结果影响显著不容忽略。采用二元本构模型和仿真计算方式,研究了地基弹性模量对坝体应力和强度安全性的影响。地基的变形对坝体应力有显著的影响。地基弹模较低时与较刚性地基的坝体应力情况差异很大。地基弹模较低时,竣工期坝基面中部的拉应力和坝址与坝踵处的压应力都很大,可能并不满足抗拉和抗压强度。与竣工期相比,挡水期坝基面的压应力增加,拉应力减小,抗压强度安全性减小,抗拉强度安全性增加。对于硬填料坝,竣工期和挡水期的抗剪强度安全系数均很高,一般可不进行抗剪强度的计算。     

防洪系统风险分析的研究评述

以风险的基本概念(风险的定义、特征和风险分析方法)为基础，在排雨水道涵洞设计、堤防河道行洪、水库大坝安全、洪水及风险管理决策等诸方面对防洪系统风险分析的研究进展加以评述，并对其发展进行了展望。     

基于滑坡风险评价的水电站坝址比选研究

针对滑坡风险在水电工程进行坝址比选时量化评价的问题,提出了基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选研究方法,在综合考虑滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,引入滑坡体重要性系数、工程影响系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数、工况发生年概率等5个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动影响因素,建立以年期望值为指标的水电工程滑坡灾害评价体系。用坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标、河道清淤指标、库内清淤指标、涌浪破坏损失指标、人口易损性指标和自然易损性指标等指标作为标准对坝址选择进行风险综合评价,可有效避免在安全风险指标相似情况下坝址风险确定难的问题。通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,运用安全与经济性相平衡原则,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。以雅砻江卡拉水电站坝址选择为计算实例,得出同一量纲下的计算分析结果,该结果更直观可靠,为坝址比选提供了依据。