Climate policy networks in South Korea: alliances and conflicts

A policy network analysis using a questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the main climate policy actors in South Korea and examine how they form alliances and come into conflict over four major issues. Generally, it was found that governmental organizations are the main actors in the South Korean climate policy arena and that they mediate between the business and civil sectors. In particular, key organizations in each sector play a leading role in the formation and maintenance of at least two distinct alliance networks: growth and environmental. In particular, the growth network has been stronger and more intense than the environmental network, with the exception of nuclear power policy. The crucial drivers of proactive policy discourse in South Korea have been scientific discourse and a consensus on the advent of anthropogenic climate change by the international scientific community, the international climate change negotiations and the pressure to commit to GHG emissions reduction, and low-carbon green growth strategy.

Policy relevance

The positions of South Korean governmental organizations (as well as other civil society organizations) on the four major issues of climate policy have not been aligned. The government has not acted as a unified body; instead it is an aggregated body composed of organizations with competing interests. If policy actors with different interests share the recognition of the state of the country within global society and understand international pressure as well as the urgency of combating climate change, then a common policy goal can be achieved. It is essential for the government to exert proactive leadership for climate policies in mediating the growth and environmental networks. It is important to boost environmental networks in order to overcome the alliance of growth networks. A more proactive response for combating climate change would establish open policy-making processes for environmental network actors and provide economic opportunities for climate actions.     

Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China

Daily precipitation for 1960–2011 and maximum/minimum temperature extremes for 1960–2008 recorded at 549 stations in China are utilized to investigate climate extreme variations.A set of indices is derived and analyzed with a main focus on the trends and variabilities of daily extreme occurrences.Results show significant increases in daily extreme warm temperatures and decreases in daily extreme cold temperatures,defined as the number of days in which daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and daily minimum temperature(Tmin)are greater than the 90th percentile and less than the10th percentile,respectively.Generally,the trend magnitudes are larger in indices derived from Tmin than those from Tmax.Trends of percentile-based precipitation indices show distinct spatial patterns with increases in heavy precipitation events,defined as the top 95th percentile of daily precipitation,in western and northeastern China and in the low reaches of the Yangtze River basin region,and slight decreases in other areas.Light precipitation,defined as the tail of the5th percentile of daily precipitation,however,decreases in most areas.The annual maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)show an increasing trend in southern China and the middle-low reach of the Yellow River basin,while the annual maximum consecutive wet days(CWD)displays a downtrend over most regions except western China.These indices vary significantly with regions and seasons.Overall,occurrences of extreme events in China are more frequent,particularly the night time extreme temperature,and landmasses in China become warmer and wetter.     

IPCC第五次评估报告反映的大气和地表的观测变化

<正>对气候变化事实的观测是气候变化科学研究的基础,也是IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)~①的核心内容之一。AR5~([1])明确指出,自1750年以来,人类活动使得大气中二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮等温室气体的浓度增加。最近连续的3个10年比1850年以来其他的任何一个10年都要暖。对于地面观测资料覆盖较全的最长观测时期(1901一2012年),全球几乎所有地区都经历了地表增暖,同时,北半球中纬度陆地区域平均降水量已增加。1950年以来,全     

在异常气候条件下预测日本、韩国水稻产量的方法

讨论日本列岛及韩国半岛地区,重点是具有东亚地区气候特征的气候系统变化,目的是了解水稻产量变化的地区性及气温偏差对产量的影响。采用资料库中各观测点逐年气象观测资料,求出韩国月平均气温的半年值。韩国国内观测点共有70多个,从中选出分布大致均匀的观测点16个,平均了各地各月的月平均气温作为代表韩国的月平均气温。由于地点不同观测年份也不同,所以平均值统计时间为1976～1995年,计算平均值时采用的地点(图略)。就其对水稻产量的影响来说,韩国和日本几乎同时出现。在异常气候条件下预测日本、韩国水稻产量的方法@杨晓丽$黑龙江省气象…     

Changes in future precipitation over South Korea using a global high-resolution climate model

We used daily precipitation data from a global high-resolution climate scenario to analyze the features of future precipitation including extreme and heavy rainfall. The scenario shows that the model reproduces the daily precipitation over South Korea well. The projections show an increase in annual precipitation of approximately 18% in the late 21st century, with the highest increase (38%) occurring in winter. The number of days with daily precipitation of less than 5 mm decreases, but that of daily precipitation of more than 5 mm increases slightly in the latter part of the 21st century. The peak of precipitation days shifted from July to August. The number of days with relatively small amounts of precipitation (10 and 30 mm d^?1) increases most substantially in the winter season, but that for large amounts of precipitation (50, 80, 100, and 130 mm d^?1) increases most in the summer season. Events with heavy precipitation rates of 100 and 130 mm d^?1 are expected to occur in the winter season in the late 21st century, although no such events occurred during the winter season in the reference period.     

广东兴宁地区近46年气候变化特征

利用1961～2006年兴宁机场的逐日信息化资料,分析了兴宁地区46年来气温、降水变化特征。结果表明：兴宁地区年,冬、夏季平均温度以及最低、最高气温均呈明显上升趋势,平均增温率为0．015℃年;综合来看,20世纪60～90年代冬季增温幅度大于夏季,21世纪初夏季增温幅度高于冬季;年平均降水量为1488．9mm,季节性显著,其中夏季最多,占年平均降水量的45．4％,秋季降水量最少。降水量呈逐渐减少的趋势并不明显,其气候倾向率为-2．89mm／年。     

Seasonal Variations of Observed Raindrop Size Distribution in East China

Seasonal variations of rainfall microphysics in East China are investigated using data from the observations of a twodimensional video disdrometer and a vertically pointing micro rain radar. The precipitation and rain drop size distribution(DSD) characteristics are revealed for different rain types and seasons. Summer rainfall is dominated by convective rain,while during the other seasons the contribution of stratiform rain to rainfall amount is equal to or even larger than that of convective rain. The mean mass-weighted diameter versus the generalized intercept parameter pairs of convective rain are plotted roughly around the "maritime" cluster, indicating a maritime nature of convective precipitation throughout the year in East China. The localized rainfall estimators, i.e., rainfall kinetic energy–rain rate, shape–slope, and radar reflectivity–rain rate relations are further derived. DSD variability is believed to be a major source of diversity of the aforementioned derived estimators. These newly derived relations would certainly improve the accuracy of rainfall kinetic energy estimation, DSD retrieval, and quantitative precipitation estimation in this specific region.     

极端天气和气候事件的变化

自1950年以来的观测证据表明,有些极端天气和气候事件已经发生了变化。全球尺度上,人为影响可能已经导致极端日最低和最高温度升高;由于平均海平面上升,人类活动可能已对沿海极端高水位事件的增加产生了影响;具有中等信度的是,人为影响已导致全球强降水增加;由于热带气旋历史记录的不确定性、缺乏对热带气旋与气候变化之间关联的物理机制的完整认识及热带气旋自然变率的程度,将可检测到的热带气旋活动变化归因于人为影响仅具有低信度。将单一的极端事件变化归因于人为气候变化具有挑战性。对极端事件变化预估的信度取决于事件的类型、区域和季节、观测资料的数量和质量、基本物理过程的认知水平及模式对其模拟的可靠性。     

广州市低温日的气候特点及其变化

统计了1951～2008年广州市最低气温≤5℃的低温日数,发现近58年来呈现年低温日数减少、低温终日提前、低温期缩短的趋势,年低温日数主要有2～3年和7～8年的变化周期.对低温日数异常年景冬季500 hPa环流进行合成分析发现,广州年低温日数显著偏多和偏少年份的亚欧地区冬季500 hPa高度距平场基本呈反位相分布.另外...     

达州地区高温天气及其变化特征

主要利用四川15个地面气象观测站1960~2012年逐日最高温度资料,采用统计学分析方法,对达州地区的高温天气特征及其变化情况进行了分析,并着重对2003年前后高温天气的差异以及达州地区高温天气与周边地区的关系进行了研究和讨论。分析结果表明,在这53年间,达县站的高温日数明显偏多,为该区域之首;区域内各站点的年高温日数的多年序列均为两峰一谷,但呈现出前后持平和前低后高两种型态;1960~2003年与2004~2012年的年高温日序列存在显著性差异,2003年后达州地区站点年高温日数有显著增加并达到历史最高峰;年高温日数的频率分布在该区域有四种形式：准正态型、偏态型、L型和双峰型。     

Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

Changes of Climate Extremes in China

Changes in China's temperature and precipitation extremes have been studied by using observational data after 1950. The results reveal that mean minimum temperature has increased significantly in China during the past 40 years, especially in the winter in northern China. Meanwhile, nation-wide cold wave activity has weakened and the frequency of cold days in northern China has been reduced significantly. Mean maximum temperatures display no statistically significant trend for China as a whole. However, decreasing summer mean maximum temperatures are obvious in eastern China, where the number of hot days has been reduced. Seasonal 1-day extreme maximum temperatures mainly reflect decreasing trends, while seasonal 1-day extreme minimum temperatures are increasing.A statistically significant reduction of much above normal rain days in China has been detected. Contrarily, an increasing trend was detected in much above normal of precipitation intensity (precipitation/number of precipitation days) during the past 45 years.     

实况海温强迫的CCM3模式对中国区域气候的模拟能力

使用NCAR/CCM3全球环流模式进行了5个集合19年(1979～1997)时间长度的观测海温强迫的AMIP2试验,对结果的中国区域部分进行了重点分析.首先给出了模式对中国地区基本气候态的模拟,表明模式对这些区域的气温有较好的模拟效果,对降水的模拟效果则比较差.随后,考察了模式对历年中国汛期降水和气温的模拟预测,结果表明,模式对中国整体降水的模拟预测能力较差,但分地区看,则在长江流域地区的效果较好;模式对中国汛期气温有较好的模拟能力,尤其是在东部的长江以北地区等.     

FGOALS/RegCM动力降尺度对南亚夏季气候变化的预估

基于CORDEX计划的试验设计,利用区域气候模式Reg CM3对全球模式FGOALS-g2在RCP8.5情景下的预估结果进行动力降尺度,预估了南亚地区未来近期(2016~2035年)和远期(2080~2099年)的夏季气候变化特征。结果显示,未来两个时段的气候变化空间分布类似,只是远期的变化幅度更大。具体表现为:高低空急流减弱,低空急流中心向北移动。南亚地区整体降水减少,但其北部降水显著增加。降水变化的空间分布主要受降水频率的控制,且降水频率随强度分布的变化表现出明显的地域差异。降水的未来变化特征与水汽输送的变化有密切联系。在区域模式中,受低空急流减弱和北移的影响,水汽输送减弱,对应降水减少。而在全球模式中,虽然季风环流也在减弱,但可降水量增加起主导作用,使得预估的水汽输送增强、降水量增加。     

近百年来ENSO 强度的变化特征

利用美国NOAA 提供的月平均海表温度资料和英国Hadley 中心提供的全球逐月海温格点资料,研究了1900-2015 年间厄尔尼诺- 南方涛动现象（ENSO）的强度变化。结果发现,1900-2015 年中ENSO 事件强度发生了明显变化：20 世纪初期至50 年代ENSO 强度为近百年来最弱时期,而从50 年代以后其强度显著增强,特别是70 年代至90 年代末期ENSO 强度达到近百年来最强,但在2000 年以后其强度又有所减弱。进一步分析表明,在20 世纪20-50 年代的强度偏弱期,ENSO 空间型的南北宽度为近百年来最窄,伴随着最大海温异常中心位置偏西;相比之下,在20 世纪70年代以来的强度偏强期,ENSO 空间型的南北宽度达到最宽,对应着最大海温异常中心位置偏东,而2000 年以后的情形有向相反方向发展的趋势。     

华南暴雨的气候特征及变化

利用华南110个测站1961—2008年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、计算趋势系数等统计诊断方法,分析了华南年和前、后汛期的暴雨日数、强度、贡献率等的气候特征及变化。结果表明,近48年来,华南年平均暴雨日数的地理分布总体上呈由沿海向内陆递减的趋势,最多中心在广西东兴（14.9d）,最少中心在广西隆林（3.2 d）。华南的暴雨72%发生在汛期,其中前汛期占45%,后汛期占27%。华南平均年和前、后汛期暴雨日数呈微弱上升趋势,但不明显。年和前、后汛期暴雨日数具有明显的年际、年代际变化特征。华南平均年和前汛期的暴雨强度有微弱增加趋势,特别是2005年以来升幅明显,而后汛期暴雨强度有不明显减少趋势。华南年暴雨贡献率增加明显,而前、后汛期暴雨贡献率增加并不明显。小波分析表明：2000年以来,华南年、前、后汛期暴雨日数具有2～3 a和3～4 a准周期振荡。     

Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …     

Thermal Climate Variations and Potential Modification of the Cropping Pattern in Bangladesh

Summary Changes in the thermal climate due to inter-annual climatic variability can potentially modify existing cropping pattern by forcing farmers to rearrange transplanting and harvesting dates. In the present study, a crop climate model, the YIELD, has been applied to 12 meteorological stations located in major rice growing regions in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of thermal climate variations on the transplanting and harvesting dates of boro rice and the resultant potential changes in cropping pattern and spatial shift. The abnormal thermal climate scenarios have been created by synthetically perturbing mean air temperatures (T_air) up to −5 °C to +5 °C with an interval of 1 °C for each of these stations. Historical meteorological records of air temperature in Bangladesh have been used to prepare these scenarios. The study finds that under abnormally cool conditions transplanting dates will be pushed well into February to avoid plant injury and harvesting dates will be moved into the monsoon. The growing seasons will be longer under cooler than normal thermal conditions. Under abnormally warm conditions harvesting dates will be established well into March and will cause reduction of yield due to a shorter growing season. These conditions will also cause spatial shift in crop potential and changes in the cropping pattern. Due to a longer boro rice growing season farmers will lose a significant amount of cropping land which is usually used for low and deep water rice cultivation. New crops will need to be introduced during the beginning of a year to overcome the loss of production under abnormally cool conditions. Wheat and potato can be good options for the farmers for such conditions. New aus rice variety needs to be introduced after the boro harvesting under warmer than the normal conditions to overcome the loss of yield due to a shorter growing season. Received September 16, 1996 Revised September 8, 1997     

平流层臭氧变化对对流层气候影响的研究进展

平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。     

Climate change predictions for South America

Some of the characteristics of predicted climate changes for South America are analysed for the years 2010 and 2050. These predictions are based on the results of three-dimensional Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results differ between models (GISS, NCAR-CCMs and GFDL), particularly when applied to regional and sub-regional scales and to time scales of less than one-year intervals. It is concluded that these differences are due to the particular structure of each model as well as to the lack of sufficient basic data from the South American sub-continent. The dynamics of vegetation cover play an important role in future water balance changes. The changes in surface temperatures predicted by the GISS model are discussed in relation to changes in the climatic-dynamic base stemming from anthropogenic changes in the vegetation cover.