Recent Trends in Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg

The effects of rainfall structure and atmosphericcirculation variability on streamflow in the AlzetteRiver basin (Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Europe) wereinvestigated. Evidence is presented regarding the local-scalesensitivity of the Alzette River basin to large-scalechanges in atmospheric circulation. Since the1950s, there has been a marked increase in thecontribution of the westerly component of atmosphericcirculation to rainfall. These changes in atmosphericcirculation are on a par with an increase in rainfallintensity and duration, which has induced a significantincrease in the winter maximum daily storm flow in theAlzette River basin since the 1970s.     

Spatial and Temporal Features of Synoptic and Mesoscale Variability of the Baltic Sea Level

The spatial and temporal features of synoptic and mesoscale variability of the Baltic Sea level are studied using long-term hourly data. The spectral analysis revealed significant difference in the structure of the sea level spectra between the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland. The maximum variance of the synoptic sea level variability is observed at the head of the Gulf of Bothnia and in the southwestern part of the Baltic Sea, whereas the maximum variance of mesoscale variability is registered at the head of the Gulf of Finland and in the southwestern part of the sea. The minimum variance of synoptic sea level variability was observed in the Gulf of Bothnia in the 1950s–1960s, and the maximum was recorded at the beginning and at the end of the 20th century. The series of interdecadal variability of synoptic sea level fluctuations have a weak negative trend up to ?0.11 cm²/year in Kungsholmfrost. A significant qualitative and quantitative correlation was detected between the interannual variability of variance of mesoscale sea level variations in the Gulf of Finland (Gornyi Institut) and the Gulf of Riga (Parnu) and the interannual variability of the NAO index.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Availability in the Yellow River Basin

The changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin were simulated by using the Community Land Model(CLM,version 3.5),driven by historical climate data observed from 1951 to 2008.A comparison of modeled soil moisture and runoff with limited observations in the basin suggests a general drying trend in simulated soil moisture,runoff,and precipitation-evaporation balance(P-E) in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the observation period.Furthermore,annual soil moisture,runoff,and P-E averaged over the entire basin have declined by 3.3%,82.2%,and 32.1%,respectively.Significant drying trends in soil moisture appear in the upper and middle reaches of the basin,whereas a significant trend in declining surface runoff and P-E occurred in the middle reaches and the southeastern part of the upper reaches.The overall decreasing water availability is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability.     

Mesoscale Variability in the Summer Arctic Boundary Layer

Observations from the summer Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001 (AOE-2001) are analysed with a focus on the interactions between mesoscale and boundary-layer dynamics. Wavelet analyses of surface-pressure variations show daylong periods with different characteristics, some featuring episodes of pronounced high-frequency surface-pressure variability, here hypothesized to be caused by trapped gravity waves. These episodes are accompanied by enhanced boundary-layer turbulence and an enhanced spectral gap, but with only minor influence on the surface stress. During these episodes, mesoscale phenomena were often encountered and usually identified as front-like features in the boundary layer, with a peak in drizzle followed by changing temperature. These phenomena resemble synoptic fronts, though they are generally shallow, shorter-lasting, have no signs of frontal clouds, and do not imply a change in air mass. Based on this analysis, we hypothesize that the root cause of the episodes with high-frequency surface-pressure variance are shallow, mesoscale fronts moving across the pack ice. They may be formed due to local-to-regional horizontal contrasts, for example, between air with different lifetimes over the Arctic or with perturbations in the cloud field causing differential cooling of the boundary layer. Thermal contrasts sharpen as the air is transported with the mean flow. The propagating mesoscale fronts excite gravity waves, which affect the boundary-layer turbulence and also seem to favour entrainment of free tropospheric air into the boundary layer.     

夏季长江流域两类中尺度涡旋的统计与合成研究

利用2000~2013年夏季6 h一次、水平分辨率为0.5°(纬度)×0.5°(经度)的CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)再分析资料,对产生于四川盆地的西南涡和产生于大别山地区的大别山低涡进行了识别,统计出西南涡和大别山低涡的发生频数、初生时段、移动路径、三维结构等气候特征;在此基础上根据涡旋生成前的地面气压场和降水特征,对西南涡和大别山低涡分别进行了分类与合成研究,并细致对比了两类涡旋的异同点,主要结论如下:(1)西南涡在7月上旬最活跃,而大别山低涡则在6月上旬发生频数最高。凌晨时段是两类涡旋的高发期;西南涡日间的生成数目多于夜间,而大别山低涡则与之相反。(2)绝大多数西南涡和大别山低涡维持时间少于12 h;绝大多数西南涡维持准静止,而大别山低涡则主要向东北方向和偏东方向移动。(3)两类涡旋均为对流层中低层的低压系统,其中大别山低涡的垂直伸展层次较西南涡更低。相比于西南涡,由于水汽条件更优,大别山低涡所引发的降水更强,强降水的凝结潜热释放使得大别山低涡的平均生命史比西南涡更长。(4)产生前有降水的西南涡/大别山低涡相比于产生前无降水的西南涡/大别山低涡而言,对流层高层南亚高压的强度更强、辐散更显著;对流层中层与500 h Pa西风带短波槽的配置条件更好;对流层低层涡旋中心附近的辐合更显著、切变更强;并且对流层中低层的上升运动更强。这些都是有利于降水发生与维持的有利条件,而与降水凝结潜热密切相关的热力强迫使得产生前有降水的西南涡/大别山低涡相比于产生前无降水的西南涡/大别山低涡拥有更长的生命史长度,更大的水平半径和更大的涡旋生命史内降水量。     

2013年7月四川盆地一次特大暴雨的中尺度系统演变特征

利用常规观测资料、地面加密资料、卫星观测资料和NCEP再分析资料等,对2013年7月8日四川盆地西部大暴雨过程的天气背景、水汽来源、地面环境场特征、中尺度云团活动等进行了分析并开展了数值模拟研究。这次过程发生在中纬度“东高西低”的环流背景下,西风槽与西太平洋副热带高压稳定的同时有高原东部小槽东移,孟加拉湾低槽槽前西南暖湿气流在盆地转为偏东风,输送充沛水汽。地面偏东风与偏北风形成的中尺度辐合线上有对流云团发展加强,为此次大暴雨的发生提供了有利的中尺度辐合条件。模拟结果表明,在川西高原地形阻挡影响下,偏东气流被迫抬升,配合中低层低涡发展形成的辐合上升,形成有利于对流系统发生和维持的环境条件。近地层辐合线北侧偏北冷空气的侵入促使对流不稳定能量释放,对对流的触发和维持有一定作用。     

中尺度扰动不稳定的数值研究

利用一个二维Boussinesq流体的绝热无粘非静力数值模式,将中尺度不稳定问题作为一个初值问题进行数值研究.线性情况下数值试验的结果基本与采用特征值方法研究得到的结论一致.非线性情况的数值试验表明,其不稳定发生的范围可与线性情况不一致;非线性不稳定的增长率一般较线性不稳定的增长率要小;非线性作用会造成波型的陡凸,从而造成流函数正负环流的不对称和环流流线的密集;非线性情形下的流型有些与强对流系统的流型相像.     

Variability of summer cloudiness in the Arctic Basin

Summary The extent and thickness of clouds in the Arctic Basin varied considerably in space and time in the late springs and summers of 1977–1979. While, on the average, clouds covered two thirds or more of the basin at any one time, cloud-free episodes were particularly common from the middle of June to late July and persisted locally for several days or even weeks. The central Arctic was less cloudy than the ocean zones closer to the coast in spring, but more cloudy in summer. Most clouds were semi-transparent, allowing recognition of underlying surface features. Optically thick clouds with middle and high level tops were associated with low pressure systems and with atmospheric flows from lower latitudes at the surface and aloft. Cloud-free skies were most frequent in high pressure cells. Climate models used to assess the impact of CO₂ and other trace gases on the radiation budget in the high latitudes should account for the heterogeneity of cloud extent and thickness in the Arctic Basin.With 12 Figures     

Inter-Annual Variability and Decadal Trends in Alpine Spring Phenology: A Multivariate Analysis Approach

Plant phenological observations are of increasing value as indicators of climate change and variability. We developed a robust multispecies estimate for Swiss Alpine spring phenology for the period 1965–2002 by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on a combination of 15 spring phases. The impact of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation on the phenological development was investigated using a multivariate statistical model. This multispecies estimate proved to be a good approach to assess the pattern of spring appearance during the last 40 years. It revealed an earlier onset of spring in recent years, mainly since 1988 when a clear shift in spring appearance occurred. The mean overall trend of 1.5 days per decade was clearly driven by winter and spring temperatures whereas precipitation showed no significant influence. The dominant EOF patterns suggested a general climate forcing for the observed inter-annual variability independent of single plant phases. A more regional phenology signal was found in the second EOF mode, indicating slightly weaker phenological trends in southern Switzerland as well as in higher altitudes. Both, temperature and precipitation contributed to this pattern significantly. Analysis of single phases confirmed the pattern of the multispecies estimate. All species showed trends towards earlier appearance ranging from −1 to −2.8 days per decade and the appearance dates had a very high covariance with temperature.     

Trends in Precipitation Variability: Prague (The Czech Republic)

Variability in precipitation at scales from 1 to 10 days was investigated with the use of the time series measured at Prague-Sporilov (the Czech Republic) between 1994 and 2001. Variability was detected by the method of absolute difference in precipitation between two adjacent discrete time periods. The results indicated a general increase in precipitation variability at all investigated scales within the 8-yr observational period. The variability patterns also showed quasi-seasonal variations. The summer wetter season proved to be the most variable. The analysis was accomplished by the investigations of precipitation variability at a monthly scale based on a century-long historical time record. On a longer time perspective, precipitation variability exhibits a general increase interrupted by quasi-decadal oscillations. The range of quasi-decadal variability has become more pronounced after about 1950, the fact that hints the possibility of further intensification of the hydrologic cycle. An obtained significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) activity and precipitation variability implies that the NAO may account for a large fraction of precipitation variability. Higher NAO-index values tend to be associated with low variability. The variability investigations may have a certain implication for climate change assessments both at the local scales as well as associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases.     

广州两次暴雨期间风廓线雷达观测的低空风场特征

利用风廓线雷达高时空分辨率资料,对2012年4月在广州出现两次暴雨期间低空流场的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)在暴雨发生前,动量由高空迅速下传,且不断增强,使得强风速不断下传,导致低空急流的建立及增强,从而使得上下层垂直风切变增大,正涡度环流加强,为暴雨的产生提供了很好的动力条件,当伴随有西南暖湿气流输送的水汽条件时,触发了暴雨的产生;(2)低空急流指数I值的脉动与强降水的发生有密切关系,在每次强降水发生前1~2 h I值都会迅速增大,强降水发生后I值迅速减小;(3)低层风场垂直切变增强以及出现极值的时间与急流下传及出现极值的时间具有较好的时间、空间对应关系,说明正是由于低空急流的下传、增强,导致了风场垂直切变的增强,且局部垂直风切变要比平均垂直风切变大得多。     

近50 年海河流域径流的变化趋势研究

该文用Mann-Kendall方法对近50年海河流域山区20个子流域的径流及降水的变化趋势进行了显著性检验, 结合降水, 径流及气温的年代距平值的同步分析以及径流对气候变化的敏感性研究结果, 对近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势, 提出了一个半定量分析的研究思路和方法。提出影响径流变化的三种类型:以气候暖干化为主, 人类活动为辅的径流显著衰减型;以人类活动为主, 气候暖干化为辅的径流显著衰减型;人类活动与气候变异都不明显, 径流无显著变化的类型。分析结果展示了气候、人类活动与水之间的相互作用。这种相互作用, 给径流的变化趋势分析和成因分析带来了复杂性与困难, 也给气候变化对水资源的影响研究提出了挑战。     

黑河流域植被覆盖度计算及其影响的中尺度模拟

运用基于遥感的中国西北土地覆盖动态监测系统(NOAA AVHRR Processing Chain,NOAA-Chain)预处理系统对改进的甚高分辨率扫描辐射仪(AVHRR)影像资料进行处理得到的归一化植被指数(NDVI),基于像元二分原理得到2002年黑河流域植被覆盖度分布,将其与Gutman 1998年所作全球植被覆盖度数据在黑河流域范围进行了对比分析,发现2002年黑河流域中上游植被整体呈退化趋势,主要绿洲区植被覆盖度增大。分别将这两套植被覆盖度数据引入中尺度大气模式MM5中进行黑河流域中上游气候模拟。通过与气温观测值的比较,发现用黑河流域植被覆盖度数据模拟的气温偏差小于用全球植被覆盖度的模拟结果;植被分布与潜热通量分布的空间相关性最好;植被覆盖度变化对局地温度场变化影响很大。     

A Numerical Study of Mesoscale Vortex Formation in the Midlatitudes:The Role of Moist Processes

In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to analyze the impact of moist processes on the development of meso-β scale vortices(MβV) and their triggering by mesoscale wind perturbation(MWP). In the experiment in which the latent heat feedback(LHF) scheme was switched off, a stable low-level col field(i.e., saddle field—a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) formed, and the MWP triggered a weak MβV. However, when the LHF scheme was switched on as the MWP was introduced into the model, the MβV developed quickly and intense rainfall and a mesoscale low-level jet(mLLJ) were generated. The thickness of the air column and average temperature between 400 and 700 hPa decreased without the feedback of latent heat, whereas they increased quickly when the LHF scheme was switched on, with the air pressure falling at low levels but rising at upper levels. A schematic representation of the positive feedbacks among the mesoscale vortex, rainfall, and mLLJ shows that in the initial stage of the MβV, the MWP triggers light rainfall and the latent heat occurs at low levels, which leads to weak convergence and ageostrophic winds. In the mature stage of the MβV, convection extends to the middle-to-upper levels, resulting in an increase in the average temperature and a stretching of the air column. A low-level cyclonic circulation forms under the effect of Coriolis torque, and the m LLJ forms to the southeast of the MβV.     

The Impacts of the Interannual Variability of Vegetation on the Interannual Variability of Global Evapotranspiration: A Modeling Study

The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50-year off-line simulations are used in this study. The simulations begin with the same initial surface-water and heat states and are driven by the same atmospheric forcing data. The vegetation exhibits interannual variability in one simulation but not in the other simulation. However, the climatological means for the vegetation are the same. The IAV of the 50-year annual total evapotranspiration and its three partitions (ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration) are analyzed. The global distribution of the evapotranspiration IAV and the statistics of evapotranspiration and its components in different ecosystems show that the IAV of ground evaporation is generally large in areas dominated by grass and deciduous trees, whereas the IAV of canopy evaporation and transpiration is large in areas dominated by bare soil and shrubs. For ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration, the changes in IAV are larger than the mean state over most grasslands and shrublands. The study of two sites with the same IAV in the leaf area index (LAI) shows that the component with the smaller contribution to the total evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the IAV of vegetation. The IAV of the three components of evapotranspiration increases with the IAV of the fractional coverage (FC) and the LAI. The ground evaporation IAV shows the greatest increase, whereas the canopy evaporation shows the smallest increase.     

A Model Study of the Relationship between Sea-Ice Variability and Surface and Intermediate Water Mass Properties in the Labrador Sea

Sea ice plays an important role in the variability of the Labrador Sea especially in its most western part adjacent to an important region of deep convection. Winter-to-winter re-emergence and propagation of both sea-ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature anomalies have been observed following years of high SIC in this region. They have potentially important links to water mass properties and freshwater and heat transports in the subpolar North Atlantic. This article builds on the results of two precursor papers and presents results from a coupled sea-ice–ocean model study of the interannual variability of sea ice in the Labrador Sea. The relationships between SIC and water column properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are assessed. Winters with high SIC and strong surface cooling are found to be conducive to intensified convection. Surface and mid-depth temperature and salinity anomalies are observed in the Labrador Sea and the northwestern North Atlantic during winters with anomalous Labrador Sea SIC. These anomalies are found to propagate along the major circulation patterns in the subpolar North Atlantic and to persist for up to three years.     

Trends in fog frequencies in the Los Angeles Basin

Data from throughout the Los Angeles area were examined to determine the horizontal distribution of dense fog (visibility < 400 m) in the region and trends over time. The relationship between the occurrence of dense fog to the phase of two atmosphere–ocean cycles: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) measured by the PDO Index and the Southern Oscillation measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was investigated. In addition, the influence of the urban heat island and the amount of suspended particulate matter were assessed. For the three stations that had 22 or more years of data, we examined trends and the relation to atmosphere–ocean cycles. Results show a decrease in the occurrence of very low visibilities (< 400 m) at the stations in close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Long Beach International Airport (LGB). Occurrence of the frequency of low visibilities at these two locations was also highly correlated with the phase of the PDO. Only a weak, non-statistically significant relationship was seen with the SOI. At Burbank, a reporting station about 30 km from the ocean, no trends were noted, and there was no evidence of a correlation with either the PDO Index or the SOI. In the Los Angeles Central Business District (CBD) when comparing dense fog occurrence in the early 1960s to a similar period in the early 2000s we saw a decrease in dense fog from a mean of 10 h per year to a mean of 3 h per year. Also contributing to the decrease was decreasing particulate pollution and increased urban warming. A downward trend in particulate concentrations coupled with an upward trend in urban temperatures were associated with a decrease in dense fog occurrence at both LAX and LGB. These trends were evident for the period 1966–1997, but appear to have ended by the late 1990s.     

一次大暴雨过程的中尺度系统分析

本文分析了京津冀地区一次大暴雨过程中出现的三类中尺度系统的降水回波特征、结构、移动、传播方式和环境场特征,以及各类中尺度系统形成的热力动力学机制。     

2007年淮河流域致洪暴雨及其中尺度系统特征的分析

针对2007年6～7月的淮河致洪暴雨,采用NCEP资料、卫星TBB（Temperature of Black Body）资料、地面加密资料和1h的降水资料对此次暴雨过程进行了详细的分析,得到结果如下:1）2007年6～7月主汛期的暴雨带主要位于淮河流域,而不是像通常那样集中在长江中下游。时间长达30余天,超过2003年（持续20余天）。2）整个汛期从6月19日开始至7月26日结束,根据影响系统和雨区分布的不同,可将降水分为3个阶段。其中,第2阶段（6月29日～7月10日）降水最强,影响最大,与梅雨的降水有更多相似。在第2阶段中又有4次降水过程,其中第4次过程（7月7～9日）降水最强,导致10日在王家坝开闸泄洪。3）高纬度的阻塞形势（西阻型）有利于环流的稳定维持和暴雨的持续发生。4）副热带高压稳定在26°N,有利于雨带维持在32°N,另外南海季风涌沿副高西侧将大量水汽输送至淮河流域。5）在阻高和副高之间的西风带上,巴尔喀什湖为低槽区,不断有小股冷空气经我国西北和黄河上游沿偏西路径移至淮河流域,西风槽加深甚至在中国大陆出现切断低压,这在过去淮河暴雨期间不太多见,表明存在明显的中低纬度的相互作用。与此同时,在7月8日高空急流入口区（右侧）与低空急流出口区（左侧）相迭置耦合,非常有利于垂直运动的加强和暴雨的发生。6）在暴雨期间有中尺度低压（扰动）的发生发展,并有与之相关的中尺度云团、雨团甚至更小的中尺度对流系统出现,致使8日寿县24h降水量达262 mm之多。该次强暴雨与淮河流域前期多场强降水形成的高水位“遭遇”,引发了严重的洪水,其影响超过了2003年,成为了1954年以来淮河流域最严重的洪涝。