Correlation between clouds at different altitudes and solar activity: Fact or Artifact?

Studies of the relation between cosmic rays (CR) (solar activity) and atmospheric cloudiness are mostly based on the satellite ISCCP cloud data. However, doubts have been cast that these relations can be an artifact of instrumental effects, i.e., of the masking/obscuring low clouds by higher clouds in the satellite view. If this is the case, most of the earlier results based on ISCCP data would be devaluated. Here, we reanalyze the ISCCP cloud coverage data and its relation with the cosmic ray-induced ionization, and show that the correlation between low clouds and CR is affected by higher clouds in some geographical regions, but not everywhere. In turn, our results show that low clouds also may affect the relation of higher clouds with CR in some regions. Accordingly, correlation analysis can be performed only when the strong relation between clouds of different types is taken into account. In particular, studies based on global or latitudinal (zonally averaged) cloud data should be revised.     

The proposed connection between clouds and cosmic rays: cloud behaviour during the past 50–120 years

Several authors have suggested that a link exists between the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and cloudiness. Here we review the evidence for such a connection from studies of cloud factors using both satellite and ground-based data. In particular, we search for evidence for the low cloud decrease predicted by the rising levels of solar activity and the low cloud-cosmic ray flux correlation indicated by satellite data. Sunshine and synoptic cloud records both indicate that the global total cloud cover has increased during the past century. This increase in total cloud cover argues against a dominating role by solar activity (via GCR) over cloud formation on centennial time scales. Either the predicted low cloud decrease has not occurred or the medium-high level cloud has increased to a greater extent than low cloud has decreased.As there is no accurate long term data available on low cloud behaviour during the last century, we are not able to totally dismiss the link between GCR and cloudiness, but we list a number of arguments for and against the proposed cosmic ray-cloud connection.     

Cosmic-ray vector anisotropy and local characteristics of the interplanetary medium

Variations in the cosmic-ray vector anisotropy observed on Earth are closely connected with the state of the near-Earth interplanetary medium. Hourly characteristics of vector anisotropy for the period 1957–2013, which were obtained by the global survey method from the data of the worldwide network of neutron monitors, make it possible to study the relationship between the cosmic-ray anisotropy and solar wind parameters. In the present work, we have studied the connection between the equatorial component of anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV and the following parameters: velocity and density of the solar wind; density of the interplanetary magnetic field; and cosmic-ray density variations, in which the spatial gradient of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium is manifested. The characteristics of cosmic-ray anisotropy at various combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters are compared. The possibility of diagnosing the solar wind state from data on the cosmic-ray anisotropy is discussed.     

On possible drivers of Sun-induced climate changes

We tested the validity of two current hypotheses on the dependence of climate change on solar activity. One of them states that variations in the tropospheric temperature are caused directly by changes of the solar radiance (total or spectral). The other suggests that cosmic ray (CR) fluctuations, caused by the solar/heliospheric modulation, affect the climate via cloud formation. Confronting these hypotheses with seven different sets of the global/hemispheric temperature reconstructions for the last 400 years, we found that the former mechanism is in general more prominent than the latter. Therefore, we can conclude that in so far as the Sun–climate connection is concerned tropospheric temperatures are more likely affected by variations in the UV radiation flux rather than by those in the CR flux.     

Variations in global cloud cover and the fair-weather vertical electric field

Statistically significant (at the 95% significance level) changes in daily cloud cover are found to occur globally over land coincident with extreme increases in ‘fair-weather’ measurements of vertical electric field (E_z) measured at Vostok, Antarctica. Using global cloud products from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D1 data series, superposed epoch analyses were made of both increases and decreases in E_z. Field significance testing revealed that, both before and after extreme increases in E_z, significant absolute cloud cover changes (of 13–15%) occur in the tropics and high latitudes. While the linkages in the tropics may reflect changes in the main convective cloud generators of current flow in the global circuit, the linkages at high latitudes appear to represent responses of clouds to the current flow. This linkage offers a possible explanation of a possible solar–terrestrial climate amplification mechanism.     

On the correlation between cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover

Various aspects of the connection between cloud cover (CC) and cosmic rays (CR) are analyzed. Most features of this connection viz. an altitude dependence of the absolute values of CC and CR intensity, no evidence for the correlation between the ionization of the atmosphere and cloudiness, the absence of correlations in short-term low cloud cover (LCC) and CR variations indicate that there is no direct causal connection between LCC and CR in spite of the evident long-term correlation between them. However, these arguments are indirect. If only some part of the LCC is connected and varies with CR, then its value, obtained from the joint analysis of their 11-year variations and averaged over the Globe, should be most likely less than 20%.The most significant argument against causal connection of CR and LCC is the anticorrelation between LCC and the medium cloud cover (MCC). The scenario of the parallel influence of the solar activity on the Global temperature and CC from one side and CR from the other side, which can lead to the observed correlations, is discussed and advocated.     

蒸发皿蒸发量的物理意义、近40年变化趋势的分析和数值试验研究

依据边界层梯度输送理论和能量守恒原理分析了蒸发皿蒸发量的物理意义,蒸发皿蒸发量是多环境因子共同非线性相互作用的结果,并利用我国有长期太阳辐射观测的62个常规气象站观测资料,通过蒸发皿蒸发量与环境气象因子的相关分析对其进行了验证. 分析了近40年蒸发皿蒸发量和环境气象因子的变化趋势,分析结果也表明只利用单个环境因子的变化来解释蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化会产生偏颇,譬如将蒸发皿蒸发量的逐年减少归因于地表接收的太阳辐射减少的解释在中国东部比在中国西部较合理. 分析1983～2001年间国际卫星云气候计划观测的资料得出,我国大部分地区的总云量保持微小的减少趋势而总云水路径处于明显的增加趋势,这表明云变得更不透明了,它的物理属性发生了明显的变化;预示着大气可降水量有逐年增加的趋势, 地气系统变得更湿润. 结合水循环过程,利用大气环流模式用数值方法证明地气系统的水汽变化能引起陆地近地层大气相对湿度、地表接收的太阳总辐射和地表潜在蒸发量的明显变化.     

Implications for the low latitude cloud formations from solar activity and the quasi-biennial oscillation

We examined the effect of the 11-year solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the ～27-day solar rotational period detected in tropical convective cloud activity. We analyzed the data of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for AD1979–2004, dividing into four different cases by the combination of high and low solar activities in terms of the 11-year variation, and easterly and westerly stratospheric winds associated with QBO. As a result, ～27-day variation has been most significantly detected in high solar activity period around the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Based on correlation analysis, we find that solar rotation signal can explain 10–20% of OLR variability around the tropical warm pool region during the high solar activity period. The spatial distribution has been, however, apparently different according to the phases of QBO. It is suggested that the 11-year solar cycle and stratospheric QBO have a possibility to cause large-scale oceanic dipole phenomena.     

Characteristic Features of Solar Cosmic Rays in the 21st–24th Solar-Activity Cycles According to Data from Catalogs of Solar Proton Events

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Homogeneous series of solar cosmic-ray events for four solar-activity cycles against the background of decreased activity in cycles 23 and 24 are considered. The number...     

High-latitude methane sulphonic acid variability and solar activity: the role of the total solar irradiance

The direct impact of solar activity on climate has been widely studied through Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Biological processes also impact climate and are deeply affected by TSI. Marine phytoplankton emissions into the atmosphere have been proposed to change cloud albedo through cloud formation. In this work, we use wavelet analysis to investigate the decadal relation between high-latitude concentrations of methane sulphonic acid, a product of seawater algae, and TSI. We found that some of the methane sulphonic acid main periodicities coincide with periods of solar activity periods.     

Modelling the Northern Hemisphere temperature for solar cycles 24 and 25

It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO₂ as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.     

Solar activity imprints in tree ring width from Chile (1610–1991)

We have investigated the solar activity signal in tree ring data from two locations in Chile. The tree ring time series extended over a period of ∼400 yr. Spectral and wavelet analysis techniques were employed. We have found evidence for the presence of the solar activity Schwabe (∼11 yr), Hale (∼22 yr), fourth-harmonic of the 208-yr Suess cycle (∼52 yr) and Gleissberg (∼80 yr) cycles. The Gleissberg cycle of tree ring data is in anti-phase with solar activity. Wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques revealed that the periods found are intermittent, possibly because solar activity signals observed in tree rings are mostly due to solar influence on local climate (rainfall, temperature, and cloud cover) where trees grow up. Further, cross-wavelet analysis between sunspot and tree ring time series showed that the cross power around the 11 yr solar cycle is more significant during periods of high solar activity (grand maximum) than during periods of low solar activity (grand minimum). As Glaciar Pio XI is practically at the Pacific Ocean level, the tree-ring response may be stronger due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean water following an increase of the solar radiation incidence rather than at the higher altitudes of Osorno region.     

Solar connections of geoeffective magnetic structures

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. This paper summarizes the properties of these structures and describes their geoeffectiveness. The primary focus is on the intense storms of solar cycle 23 because this is the first solar cycle during which simultaneous, extensive, and uniform data on solar, IP, and geospace phenomena exist. After presenting illustrative examples of coronal holes and CMEs, I discuss the internal structure of ICMEs, in particular the magnetic clouds (MCs). I then discuss how the magnetic field and speed correlate in the sheath and cloud portions of ICMEs. CME speed measured near the Sun also has significant correlations with the speed and magnetic field strengths measured at 1 AU. The dependence of storm intensity on MC, sheath, and CME properties is discussed pointing to the close connection between solar and IP phenomena. I compare the delay time between MC arrival at 1 AU and the peak time of storms for the cloud and sheath portions and show that the internal structure of MCs leads to the variations in the observed delay times. Finally, we examine the variation of solar-source latitudes of IP structures as a function of the solar cycle and find that they have to be very close to the disk center.     

Long-Term Changes in the Number and Magnitude of Forbush-Effects

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances has been used to study long-term changes in the number and magnitude of Forbush effects in the last six solar cycles (1957–2016) for cosmic rays of rigidity of 10 GV. Solar activity cycles have been shown to be well expressed in data of Forbush effects, especially in large magnitude events that almost disappear in minima. The changes in the distribution of Forbush effects and the decrease in their average values from solar activity maximum to minimum are explained by the predominance of cosmic-ray variations due to the action of coronal holes at low activity. It should be noted that the current cycle involves fewer and generally weaker Forbush effects than in the previous five cycles. For each month, an FD index combining the magnitude and number of Forbush effects and convenient for studying long-term variations has been proposed and calculated.     

Lunar semimonthly signal in cloudiness: Lunar-phase or lunar-declination effect?

The cloud amount summer nighttime data obtained from the 1994 to 2007 NASA satellite infrared and visible range measurements taken within the framework of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) were analyzed, and the contribution by lunar signal to the cloud amount was extracted. Although the fact of lunar influence on cloudiness is known, this investigation has made it possible to separate the lunar-phase and lunar-declination effects on cloudiness. The relative cloud amount tends to grow with a change in lunar phase from a quadrature to the New Moon or Full Moon and with an increase in lunar declination by absolute value. Both the effects are statistically significant, the lunar-declination effect is a little stronger. The obtained results do not seem to contradict the theory of lunar tides.     

Gamma Rays Generated in Nuclear Interactions of Protons Accelerated during Solar Flares

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The article considers 30 solar flare events during which the spectra of solar cosmic-ray (SCR) protons with energies above ~80 MeV were recorded in the course of the...     

Observations of noctilucent clouds from Lithuania

We present an analysis of systematic visual and photographic observations of noctilucent clouds seen from Lithuania in the years 1973–2009. The main trends in the noctilucent cloud occurrence frequency and the mean brightness are derived from statistical and correlation analysis. A clear signature of the solar activity cycle is imprinted on the noctilucent cloud occurrence frequency and mean brightness, both showing distinct anti-correlation with the sunspot numbers; however, no statistically significant increase of either noctilucent cloud occurrence frequency or brightness has been detected at least over past 19 yr (1991–2009). The only statistically significant positive trend is established for the numbers of very bright noctilucent cloud displays in the years 1973–2009. The most recent noctilucent cloud observations are linked to variations of local mesospheric temperatures, measured by the Aura satellite.     

Studying the Relationship between High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity and Parameters of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds with the Use of Artificial Neural Networks

The cause-and-effect relations of the dynamics of high-latitude geomagnetic activity (in terms of the AL index) and the type of the magnetic cloud of the solar wind are studied with the use of artificial neural networks. A recurrent neural network model has been created based on the search for the optimal physically coupled input and output parameters characterizing the action of a plasma flux belonging to a certain magnetic cloud type on the magnetosphere. It has been shown that, with IMF components as input parameters of neural networks with allowance for a 90-min prehistory, it is possible to retrieve the AL sequence with an accuracy to ~80%. The successful retrieval of the AL dynamics by the used data indicates the presence of a close nonlinear connection of the AL index with cloud parameters. The created neural network models can be applied with high efficiency to retrieve the AL index, both in periods of isolated magnetospheric substorms and in periods of the interaction between the Earth’s magnetosphere and magnetic clouds of different types. The developed model of AL index retrieval can be used to detect magnetic clouds.     

Solar and geomagnetic activity effects on climate at regional and global scales: Case study—Romania

We analyze 100–150 years-long temperature and precipitation records from 14 meteorological stations in Romania, in connection with long-term trends in solar and geomagnetic activities. The comparison of solar (sunspot number) and geomagnetic (aa index) parameters with the mean air temperature over the Romanian territory, at interdecadal timescales, shows positive correlation coefficients, while the comparison with the mean precipitation shows negative correlation coefficients. The correlation of climatic parameters seems to be stronger for geomagnetic activity than for solar activity. The Romanian temperature series are examined in the context of other European stations and of averages on the European, northern hemisphere, and global scale, respectively. Long-term (interdecadal and centennial) trends and differences between local trends and average trends for larger areas are discussed. The study indicates that solar and geomagnetic activity effects are present on the 22-year Hale cycle timescale. The temperature variation on this timescale lags the solar/geomagnetic ones by 5–9 years.     

Effect of atmospheric gases,surface albedo and cloud overlap on the absorbed solar radiation

Recent studies have provided new evidence that models may systematically underestimate cloud solar absorption compared to observations. This study extends previous work on this “absorption anomaly” by using observational data together with solar radiative transfer parameterisations to calculate f_s (the ratio of surface and top of the atmosphere net cloud forcings) and its latitudinal variation for a range of cloud types. Principally, it is found that (a) the zonal mean behaviour of f_s varies substantially with cloud type, with the highest values obtained for low clouds; (b) gaseous absorption and scattering can radically alter the pattern of the variation of f_s with latitude, but gaseous effects cannot in general raise f_s to the level of around 1.5 as recently determined; (c) the importance of the gaseous contribution to the atmospheric ASR is such that whilst f_s rises with surface albedo, the net cloud contribution to the atmospheric ASR falls; (d) the assumed form of the degree of cloud overlap in the model can substantially affect the cloud contribution to the atmospheric ASR whilst leaving the parameter f_s largely unaffected; (e) even large uncertainties in the observed optical depths alone cannot account for discrepancies apparent between modelled and newly observed cloud solar absorption. It is concluded that the main source of the anomaly may derive from the considerable uncertainties regarding impure droplet microphysics rather than, or together with, uncertainties in macroscopic quantities. Further, variable surface albedos and gaseous effects may limit the use of contemporaneous satellite and ground-based measurements to infer the cloud solar absorption from the parameter f_s.